Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: Late July

Previous Trend: Negative

Talks between six world powers and Iran to revive the 2015 nuclear deal remain stalled until Iran’s new president, Ebrahim Raisi, takes office in August. Raisi’s incoming presidential team will review the deal negotiated by his predecessor’s government, including Washington’s reportedly unsparing concessions thus far. As the U.S. negotiating position verges on total collapse, the new Iranian leader may still reject the terms. None of this will help the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) hold Iran to account. The agency’s director general stated that the IAEA’s nonproliferation safeguards probe in Iran remains stalled. Due to reduced access to nuclear sites, the agency cannot confirm whether Iran continues to collect and preserve safeguards data on IAEA cameras and instruments. The September IAEA Board of Governors meeting will be an important landmark in ascertaining Iran’s nuclear trajectory. Elsewhere, the United States and Russia met on July 28 in Geneva to discuss arms control issues, including future threat-reduction agreements.

Previous Trend: Negative

The Biden administration continues to mount a legal and regulatory offensive to counter China’s malign behavior. In an advisory issued jointly by the departments of State, Treasury, Commerce, and Homeland Security, the administration warned businesses with operations in Hong Kong about the financial and regulatory risks stemming from China’s restriction of political and economic freedoms in the territory. These business risks include electronic surveillance without warrants and the forced surrender of proprietary data to Chinese authorities. The Biden administration paired the advisory with new sanctions against seven Chinese officials for violating Hong Kong’s autonomy. The administration also rallied a broad group of international allies to condemn Chinese cyberattacks, most notably the breach of Microsoft email systems used by many of the world’s largest companies, governments, and military contractors. The announcement paves the way for the United States and its allies to continue intelligence-sharing on cyber threats and enhanced collaboration on network defenses. While the messaging is on target, none of this has had any deleterious impact on Beijing. This raises serious questions about whether the administration intends to treat China’s malign cyber behavior differently than that of Russia.

Previous Trend: Neutral

Weeks after the ransomware attack on information technology company Kaseya and President Biden’s warning to Russian President Vladimir Putin to take action against the criminal gang responsible, Kaseya secured the decryption key and the gang has gone dark. It is unclear, however, if the U.S. government can claim credit for these developments. The company revealed that it received the key through a “trusted third party.” The reason for REvil’s disappearance is equally murky; there was reportedly no evidence that an external actor compromised its servers. Although the administration announced additional steps to combat ransomware, they will be insufficient to stem the tide. Meanwhile, in a statement issued by a historic coalition of cyber allies, the Biden administration attributed the hack of Microsoft’s Exchange Server and other malicious activity to the Chinese government. Separately, the Department of Justice unsealed indictments against Chinese Ministry of State Security operatives responsible for stealing information to benefit Chinese companies. The federal charges reveal robust U.S. investigative capabilities. However, legal action has thus far failed to change Chinese behavior. The Biden administration will need to wield more formidable tools to convince Russia and China to cease support for and encouragement of malign cyber activity.

Previous Trend: Very Negative

In the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021, Congress required the secretary of defense to submit a report to the congressional defense committees by May 1 on efforts to defend Guam against growing Chinese ballistic, hypersonic, and cruise missile threats. Three months later, Congress is still waiting for that report. Meanwhile, China is sprinting to improve its capabilities to target American forces in Guam and elsewhere by 2026. Indo-Pacific Command has made clear in successive annual reports that a 360-degree persistent and integrated air defense capability for Guam is an urgent and top priority. Guam is home to roughly 170,000 U.S. citizens as well as Anderson Air Force Base, a submarine base, a new Marine Corps base, and numerous logistics and prepositioned stores. In its defense budget request, the Biden administration ignored most of Indo-Pacific Command’s needs for Guam, and now the administration’s delay in submitting the report is incentivizing House appropriators to seek funding cuts that will only further postpone delivery of vital defense capabilities. This failure requires congressional action. Congress should provide full funding for the Guam Defense System, consistent with the Pacific Deterrence Initiative.

Previous Trend: Positive

The administration and Germany announced an agreement clearing the way for Russia’s Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline, which will deprive Kyiv of vital transit revenues and increase Ukrainian vulnerability to Russian aggression. Berlin committed to invest in green energy and energy security in Ukraine and to push Moscow to continue transit through Ukraine. Berlin also vowed that in the event Moscow attempts to weaponize energy or commits further aggression against Ukraine, Germany “will take action at the national level and press for” EU economic sanctions against Russia. Kyiv, Eastern European allies, and much of Congress panned the deal. The administration defended the agreement by arguing sanctions would not have stopped the pipeline and America is therefore better off compromising to secure German concessions and repair relations with Berlin. Whether that claim is true or not, the administration’s reported attempts to strong-arm Kyiv into staying quiet are shameful. Moreover, for seemingly political reasons, the deal does not include investment in Ukrainian gas production, which has great untapped potential. In other news, the Biden administration hosted Belarusian opposition leader Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya, providing symbolic support for the country amid sweeping repression by the Belarusian regime. Curiously, Secretary of State Antony Blinken did not even stay for Tsikhanouskaya’s entire meeting with other State Department officials.

Previous Trend: Neutral

Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Minister of Defense Khalid bin Salman al-Saud met with senior State Department officials earlier this month for discussions on regional security. These meetings indicate the White House is slowly rebuilding ties with the kingdom after a very poor start. With the one-year anniversary of the Abraham Accords approaching, the administration has yet to indicate whether it will celebrate the peace agreements between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain. Remarkably, the White House has demonstrated ambivalence in furthering this positive regional dynamic, in large part because the accords represent the legacy of former President Donald Trump. The administration may have a headache looming on Capitol Hill. Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) has called on the Pentagon to shut down its military bases in the Gulf and to replace anti-Iranian deterrence with a “regional security dialogue.” This would be disastrous for deterrence amidst an already unprecedented drawdown in American military power across the region, including recently unveiled plans to pivot out of Iraq.

Previous Trend: Neutral

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will visit Singapore, Vietnam, and the Philippines this week. This will be his second trip to what he has called America’s “priority theater of operations.” In a less-than-subtle dig at China, Austin will make the case for “a more fair, open and inclusive regional order,” one in which “no country should be able to dictate the rules or worse yet, throw them over the transom.” The trip comes as Japan is taking a harder look at how to counter Beijing’s revisionist behavior. In a new white paper, Japan reiterated that “stabilizing the situation surrounding Taiwan is important for Japan’s security and the stability of the international community” — the latest in a string of high-profile mentions of the island, which China threatens to take by force. The paper also stresses the need for Japan to focus on developing advanced technologies, such as artificial intelligence, which the paper deems vital for the future of warfare. China wasted little time lodging a diplomatic protest against Japan’s comments, signaling Beijing’s concern about rising anti-China sentiments in the region. China’s roar masks its dangerous fragility, one that carries risks for the Biden administration as it seeks to reduce the potential for miscalculation in its own dealings with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

Previous Trend: Negative

The folly of the Biden administration’s decision to resume funding to and maintain participation in the World Health Organization (WHO) without demanding reform was on full display as China announced it would not participate in a second phase of the WHO’s COVID-19 origins investigation. The administration has given no indication it intends to nominate or support a challenger to WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom, who is seeking re-election. Tedros, who helped Beijing cover up its culpability for the virus at the outset of the pandemic, now says he believes that the theory that COVID-19 leaked from a laboratory in Wuhan is valid. Meanwhile, the Biden administration continues to seek election to the UN Human Rights Council, another body that it decided to rejoin and refund without demanding reform. The administration is pursuing this track even after that Orwellian organization announced that former UN human rights chief Navi Pillay would chair an international commission of inquiry into alleged Israeli war crimes during the Gaza conflict in May — a war that Israel did not initiate or want. Pillay, a former South African judge who served as UN High Commissioner for Human Rights from 2008 to 2014, previously appointed four fact-finding missions targeting Israel, including the infamous Goldstone Commission, whose report was later retracted by the commission’s chairman for its bias.

Previous Trend: Very Negative

The Biden administration signaled it would not change its policy toward offering Iran billions of dollars by lifting U.S. sanctions and returning to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The refusal to revisit this flawed policy is downright bizarre after the U.S. Department of Justice revealed the regime’s terrorist plot to kidnap a U.S citizen and journalist — Masih Alinejad — from New York City. Following meetings with Alinejad, neither Secretary Blinken nor National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan warned Tehran of potential consequences for targeting American citizens. This may only embolden the regime to target other U.S. citizens in the future. Meanwhile, after U.S. officials previously denied that the Biden administration intends to withdraw U.S. military forces from Iraq — a key demand of the Islamic Republic — a U.S. official and Iraq’s foreign minister now confirm the United States will shift to an “advisory role” in Iraq by the end of the year. This will only allow Iran to increase its stranglehold on Iraq. These failures, alongside the continued non-enforcement of U.S. sanctions and lack of accountability at the International Atomic Energy Agency amidst Iran’s nuclear escalations and refusal to declare nuclear sites and materials, have squandered historic leverage over Tehran.

Previous Trend: Negative

The Biden administration has agreed to delay its plans to reopen the U.S. Consulate in Jerusalem for the Palestinians until after Israel passes a budget, reportedly at Israel’s request. The Trump administration closed the consulate, which many Israelis viewed as an affront to Israel’s sovereignty in its own capital. The episode revealed that the new Israeli government enjoys some leverage with this White House, which fears the return of former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In mid-July, U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Hady Amr met with senior Israeli and Palestinian officials and civil society organizations during a five-day visit to the Holy Land. Amr warned Israel that the Palestinian Authority is in danger of collapsing. Following Amr’s trip, the Biden administration gave $135 million to the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), the agency that lamentably perpetuates a Palestinian refugee narrative that facts do not support. While the resumption in funding to the agency was accompanied by an UNRWA pledge to ensure its funds do not aid supporters of terrorism, the agreement did not tackle UNRWA’s encouragement of the Palestinian “right of return.” Meanwhile, Jordanian King Abdullah II visited the White House and met with President Biden. The Palestinian issue and Jerusalem, where Jordan oversees the administration of the Al-Aqsa Mosque, remain volatile for the Hashemite Kingdom.

Previous Trend: Positive

The administration continues efforts to prioritize alliance relationships in Asia through high-level engagement. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman traveled to the region for a trilateral meeting with Japan and South Korea and then bilateral meetings with several South Korean officials, including President Moon Jae-in. She also plans to travel to China, where she is expected to discuss the North Korean issue, among others. Although the Biden and Moon administrations continue to call for nuclear negotiations, there has been no response from Pyongyang. North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un is likely distracted by continued internal problems, including COVID-19, severe food shortages, and cracking down on outside information. Lord David Alton, chairman of the British-DPRK All-Party Parliamentary Group, issued a new report updating the 2014 UN Commission of Inquiry’s assessment of human rights in North Korea. There has been no change in North Korea’s disastrous human rights situation. China remains complicit in this human rights crisis, as Beijing forcibly repatriated 50 escapees who now face severe punishment, torture, and possible execution in North Korea. The ROK-U.S. combined military exercise in August will go ahead, but ROK political leaders continue to call for its cancelation in the hope that Kim will come to the negotiating table.

Previous Trend: Negative

Over the last two weeks, the Biden administration has implemented a few important accountability mechanisms to promote democracy and counter corruption in Latin America. First, Secretary Blinken announced U.S. anti-corruption sanctions against a former Honduran president and first lady. The administration subsequently sanctioned the minister of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Cuba and the Cuban Special National Brigade for their attacks on Cuban protestors. These sanctions build on the Global Magnitsky designation of Cuba’s Ministry of Interior at the end of the previous administration. However, these Cuba designations lack tangible impact, as all Cuban regime officials have been under blanket sanctions for decades. Meanwhile, the administration has failed to provide VPN services to the Cuban people to help them evade government surveillance. In Venezuela, the administration also appears powerless to mitigate a siege on Interim President Juan Guaidó. Nor has the administration taken any action in response to the Venezuelan regime’s arbitrary detention of opposition leader Freddy Guevara, who was falsely charged with terrorism and treason. Instead, the administration issued a general license for propane, previously denied by the U.S. sanctions regime.

Previous Trend: Very Negative

After failing to form a government, outgoing Lebanese Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri recently gloated that Jordan has convinced the Biden administration to waive Caesar Act sanctions on the Bashar al-Assad regime to allow for the transit of Egyptian gas via Jordan and Syria to Lebanon. The Lebanese, as well as the Jordanians, had unsuccessfully lobbied the Trump administration for these waivers. Additional reporting in Saudi media confirmed that the Jordanians took the lead in lobbying the Biden administration on this issue. The Biden administration has yet to clarify whether it intends to waive sanctions on Assad under the pretense of providing relief to Lebanon. There are other ambiguities in the administration’s policy in Lebanon. Following Hariri’s resignation, Secretary Blinken issued a statement lamenting the corrupt Lebanese political class’ failure to form a government, without so much as mentioning Hezbollah’s domination of the system. Lebanon’s new prime minister-designate is another junior partner of Hezbollah with longstanding ties to Assad.

Previous Trend: Neutral

Ahead of U.S.-Russia expert-level cyber talks, REvil, the Russia-based cybercriminal group responsible for the Kaseya ransomware attack, mysteriously dropped offline. It remains unclear whether the U.S. government or anyone else took action against the group; REvil’s servers reportedly do not appear to have been hacked or seized. From July 12 to 15, President Biden’s climate envoy, John Kerry, visited Moscow for discussions with senior Russian officials — including Putin — and business representatives. A resultant joint statement pledged U.S.-Russian cooperation on climate, including in the Arctic region. Kerry and Russia’s foreign minister expressed hope that climate could serve as a springboard to reduce U.S.-Russia tensions. On July 28, Washington and Moscow held the first round of the Strategic Stability Dialogue that Biden and Putin agreed to establish during their June 16 summit. The administration hopes the dialogue will “lay the groundwork for future arms control and risk reduction measures.” Ahead of the meeting, the State Department and EU External Action Service coordinated positions. On July 14, the State Department spokesman released a statement remembering two journalists murdered in Russia for exposing corruption and human rights violations. The statement “condemn[ed] the Russian government’s ongoing crackdown on independent media.”

Previous Trend: Very Negative

The Afghan government imposed a nighttime curfew in 31 of the country’s 34 provinces as the Taliban continue to gain ground in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal. The Taliban now control 224 of Afghanistan’s 407 districts and contest 110, while the government controls only 73. After shutting down its air support for the Afghan military, the U.S. military is again launching strikes against select Taliban targets. More than 2,400 Afghan civilians were killed during the months of May and June. The Afghan military claims it killed 1,500 Taliban fighters over the past week, but the effort appears to be a lost cause. Forty-six Afghan soldiers fled the country into Pakistan to escape the Taliban. Meanwhile, in Iraq, the Biden administration is ending the U.S. combat mission against the Islamic State. That decision will likely similarly weaken the Iraqi government’s ability to contain jihadist groups. Other challenges await Washington in the war on terrorism that it seeks to quit. The United States launched two drone strikes against al-Shabaab, al-Qaeda’s branch in East Africa, in the central Somalian state of Galmudug. In Syria, jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which controls Idlib province, told foreign fighters to join its ranks or leave. Rwandan security forces in Mozambique battled Islamic State-linked fighters in Cabo Delgado near the border with Tanzania from July 19 to 23.

Previous Trend: Neutral

At a White House meeting, Jordan’s King Abdullah pressed President Biden to join a task force that would bring together the United States, Russia, and several regional governments to help stabilize Syria. The details of the proposal are not yet known, but the Russian approach to stability typically entails strengthening the Assad regime without concern for human rights. While Amman’s foreign policy generally aligns with that of the United States, Jordan and the Gulf monarchies tend to favor normalization with Damascus and oppose U.S. measures such as the Caesar Act, which is designed to intensify pressure on Assad. On July 20, the House of Representatives passed the bipartisan Bassam Barabandi Rewards for Justice Act, which authorizes the State Department to offer monetary rewards to individuals who help identify Syrian evaders of U.S. and UN sanctions. While serving as a Syrian diplomat in Washington, Barabandi helped secure travel documents for nearly 100 Syrian activists, enabling them to escape the country. Barabandi left the Syrian diplomatic service and applied for asylum in 2013; he now leads an organization that supports the Syrian people.

Previous Trend: Neutral

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s proposal for Turkish troops to guard and run Kabul’s airport following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan should be approached with caution given Turkey’s support for radical Islamists in Syria and beyond. Yet the Biden administration appears too eager to accede to Ankara’s terms. The result, as Erdogan had likely hoped, is muted American criticism of Ankara’s transgressions at home and abroad. On July 20, regarding the U.S.-led NATO mission in Afghanistan, Erdogan boasted that Turkey “stood by [its] Afghan brothers against all imperial powers.” This clear jab at the United States has received no pushback from Washington. Meanwhile, a Russian official announced Moscow is finalizing plans to send additional S-400 surface-to-air missile systems to Turkey. In subsequent congressional testimony, Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland warned that “any new major arms purchases from Russia risk triggering additional CAATSA sanctions,” although the readouts of the last two phone calls between Secretary Austin and his Turkish counterpart do not mention the S-400. Washington also remains troublingly silent on Ankara’s latest attempt to ban Turkey’s second-largest opposition party. Secretary Blinken’s condemnation of Erdogan’s unilateral actions in Cyprus as “provocative” and “unacceptable” strikes the right tone in bilateral relations.

The analyses above do not necessarily represent the institutional views of FDD.