For now, however, all eyes are on Trump and Mohammed bin Salman. Trump must rescue U.S. shale oil from the Saudis—and make sure that any deal to cut back production and stabilize prices will truly stick.
Given Turkey’s continued disagreements with Saudi Arabia over the situation in Libya, Syria, Sudan, and Iran, the indictment may turn out to be the open declaration of a new, more tumultuous phase in Turkish-Saudi relations. Khashoggi’s murder brought an already faltering relationship to its knees, while the court ruling and continued competition over the wider Middle East might bring about the formal end to the relationship between the two countries. What remains to be seen is how far Riyadh is willing to let Erdogan to push the envelope.
The Iranian state owns many petrochemical firms, so their exports generate hard currency for the regime or facilitate key imports. The United States should demand detailed trade data from Abu Dhabi to ensure that Emirati imports of Iranian petrochemical products stop immediately. If there is no change, the United States should escalate its designations of Emirati targets.
The dynamics of America’s reliance on oil may have changed. We are no longer totally beholden to hostile foreign producers for vital energy imports, but these producers’ actions have ripple effects on global markets that continue to hurt us. If the United States really wants to be energy independent, it must look toward preparing for a post-oil future.