Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: Late May

Welcome back to the Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker, where FDD’s experts and scholars assess the administration’s foreign policy every two weeks. As always, they provide trendlines of very positive, positive, neutral, negative, or very negative for the areas they study. With the Gaza war now over, the administration is once again looking to focus its efforts on reviving the flawed 2015 nuclear deal, prompting deep concern among our analysts tracking nonproliferation and Iran. A return to the deal could also impact Israel, Lebanon, the Gulf, and other files. The trendlines continue to change in several portfolios – a clear sign that the White House continues to move at a frenetic pace. In a potentially positive development, the White House’s China policy is finally coming into focus. Check back in two weeks to monitor implementation of this and other files.

Previous Trend: Negative

World powers began a fifth round of consultations in Vienna to re-establish the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. Secretary of State Antony Blinken denied that an agreement had been reached, stating during an official visit to the Middle East, “It remains an unanswered question whether Iran is actually prepared to do what it needs to do to come back into compliance.” Under the accord, the United States would lift many of its most powerful sanctions on the Islamic Republic in return for expiring limitations. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Tehran extended a temporary monitoring agreement after Iran reduced IAEA monitoring in February. However, in an unprecedented step of extortion, Tehran threatened to delete IAEA electronic and surveillance data collected at nuclear sites if Iran does not receive U.S. sanctions relief by June 24. The IAEA chief publicly pressured Tehran to cooperate with an ongoing IAEA inquiry into Iran’s nuclear activities and characterized the Islamic Republic’s enrichment of uranium to 60 percent purity as a level “only countries making [atomic] bombs are reaching.” President Joe Biden and South Korean President Moon Jae-in met on May 21 in Washington, where they renewed a pledge to work toward “complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.” The Biden administration formally announced that it will not seek to re-enter the 1992 Open Skies Treaty. The State Department cited “Russia’s failure to take any actions to return to compliance.” Former President Donald Trump withdrew America from the treaty last year.

Previous Trend: Neutral

The contours of the Biden administration’s China policy are coming into clearer focus. In a series of blunt remarks, the White House’s Indo-Pacific coordinator, Kurt Campbell, stated that “the period that was broadly described as engagement has come to an end.” Campbell further remarked that the “dominant paradigm” between China and the United States would now be one of competition, not collaboration. Campbell blamed Chinese policies under President Xi Jinping as the catalyst for the administration’s policy shift, citing the threat posed by military clashes on China’s border with India, Beijing’s “economic campaign” against Australia, and the rise of China’s “wolf warrior” diplomacy. This unexpectedly assertive approach closely mirrors that of the previous administration. It also occurs after President Biden ordered the U.S. intelligence community to redouble its efforts to ascertain COVID-19’s origins, in part because of China’s refusal to participate further in the World Health Organization’s pandemic investigation. Still unclear is whether the Biden administration will proceed with a Trump-era plan to ban American investors from trading securities in subsidiaries of blacklisted Chinese companies. Such a decision, which could come in the next few weeks, carries major economic implications for the world’s two largest economies. There are already indications that major Chinese companies such as Huawei are shifting their business operations to counter U.S. sanctions.

Previous Trend: Neutral

Weeks after the ransomware attack on the Colonial Pipeline and the company’s troubling payment of a $4.4 million ransom, the Biden administration is taking steps to increase the cybersecurity of America’s oil and gas pipelines and other critical infrastructure. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) issued new regulations that will require pipeline operators to report cyber incidents to DHS’ Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and to conduct self-assessments of current practices and remediation measures to address cyber risks. DHS is also considering “follow-on mandatory measures.” These regulations are important, but the cyber resilience of U.S. national critical infrastructure varies significantly across sectors, and similar requirements are needed for many other industries. The Cyberspace Solarium Commission (CSC) identified this issue last year. The Biden administration should follow CSC recommendations to require companies that own and operate “systemically important critical infrastructure” to adopt better cybersecurity practices and report cyber incidents to the U.S. government. In return, these companies should receive access to more intelligence on threat actors as well as some liability protections. In late May, the administration released its proposed budget for fiscal year 2022. It proposes significant investments in federal technology modernization and in the cybersecurity budgets of federal agencies. However, the budget includes only a 5 percent increase for CISA, whereas the CSC has recommended a 20 percent increase to properly resource the agency.

Previous Trend: Neutral

Following President Biden’s decision in April to conduct an ill-advised exit from Afghanistan that ignores conditions on the ground, the Department of Defense has been sprinting to withdraw all forces as soon as possible. The Pentagon says the withdrawal is nearly halfway done and may be completed by July – well before Biden’s deadline of September 11. However, many vital questions apparently remain unanswered. It remains unclear how the United States will conduct counterterrorism operations in Afghanistan, where the United States will base U.S. military aircraft and drones to facilitate those operations, and how the United States will maintain logistical and training support for Afghans after the withdrawal. As former Secretary of Defense and CIA Director Leon Panetta said during a recent FDD event, “it would have made sense to have all of that planning done prior to the [withdrawal] decision so that you saw a clear plan of action.” The rushed withdrawal timeline, coupled with a shortage of aircraft carriers, has forced the Pentagon to shift the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier strike group from the Western Pacific to the Arabian Sea for up to four months this summer. This reduces U.S. deterrence of China. It also underscores the fact that America lacks sufficient naval forces, at a time when the Biden administration just submitted a subpar defense budget proposal to Congress that will not keep up with projected inflation.

Previous Trend: Positive

The Biden administration made further progress in revitalizing transatlantic relations and rallying European support vis-à-vis China. After Belarusian authorities hijacked a Ryanair flight to apprehend a pro-opposition journalist, Secretary Blinken, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, and President Biden joined America’s allies in condemning Minsk’s actions. A subsequent G7-EU joint statement echoed those sentiments. The administration later announced forthcoming sanctions in coordination with European allies. On May 26, Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman met with European External Action Service Secretary General Stefano Sannino. In addition to discussing issues ranging from Russia to Indo-Pacific infrastructure projects, the two diplomats held the first high-level meeting of the EU-U.S. dialogue on China, re-launched in March. They expressed concern over China’s economic coercion, disinformation campaigns, aggression in the South China Sea, and abuses in Xinjiang, Tibet, and Hong Kong. They also called for Taiwan’s “meaningful participation in … international organizations.” Earlier, Brussels agreed to postpone tariffs retaliating against Trump-era tariffs against EU steel and aluminum exports and to begin discussions on addressing Chinese overproduction. Resolving trade disputes and countering China’s malign trade practices featured prominently in subsequent discussions U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai held with EU and G7 counterparts. This follows March agreements with the European Union and United Kingdom to suspend tariffs related to long-running trade disputes over European and U.S. subsidies for Airbus and Boeing, aiming to facilitate a negotiated settlement and begin “addressing the challenges posed by … non-market economies, such as China.”

Previous Trend: Negative

The F-35 sale to the United Arab Emirates is again on shaky ground due to the country’s burgeoning cooperation with China. A halt to the sale came after two People’s Liberation Army flights delivered undisclosed materiel to the United Arab Emirates. The Biden administration had approved the F-35 package just last month after conducting a review. The chief U.S. concern is whether China could gain access to American technology. Concerns and sensitivities over U.S. arms sales – already a point of contention with Gulf states – will only grow as great power competition heats up in the region. In the wake of several U.S. statements indicating a withdrawal from the region, Gulf states are hedging by expanding alliances with U.S. competitors. General Kenneth McKenzie, the head of U.S. Central Command, warned about Chinese and Russian encroachment last week while on a regional tour. Elsewhere, the administration continues to struggle to make progress in Yemen after removing sanctions on the Iran-backed Houthis early in its tenure. U.S. Special Envoy for Yemen Tim Lenderking traveled to the region again last week, but he has yet to notch a win. The administration emphasized the need to de-escalate the military conflict in Marib and earlier this month sanctioned two Houthis leading the assault there. On May 27, Mohammed Abdulsalam, the top Houthi negotiator, met with UN Yemen envoy Martin Griffiths after refusing a previous meeting, but the Houthis have not budged from earlier demands.

Previous Trend: Neutral

The Biden administration is smartly stepping up its diplomatic engagement throughout the region. Last week, Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman kicked off an 11-day visit, with stops in Jakarta, Bangkok, and Phnom Penh. The Biden administration is also expected to name Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti as ambassador to India and former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel as ambassador to Japan. Meanwhile, Beijing suffered a significant setback in its efforts to expand China’s military influence in the Pacific when Samoa announced it would not proceed with a planned $100 million Chinese port-development project, citing concerns about China’s debt-trap diplomacy. However, China’s proximity to the region all but guarantees that its influence will continue to grow in the coming years. To mitigate this, the Biden administration will need to narrow significant policy gaps with several of its closest allies. This includes Japan, where Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga recently announced that Japan’s military would not get involved in a conflict over Taiwan – despite its critical location for Japan’s own security. The cancelation of this month’s Shangri-La Security Dialogue in Singapore on account of an unexpected COVID-19 surge was a setback for the administration’s near-term efforts to build broader consensus regarding China’s belligerent behavior.

Previous Trend: Positive

In a blow to the Biden administration’s pledge to counter China’s influence within the UN system, the World Health Assembly excluded Taiwan from observing the World Health Organization’s annual meeting. The administration had called for Taiwan’s participation, but it never developed a strategy or implementation plan to achieve that objective. In a positive development, as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad rockets rained down on Israel, the Biden administration blocked the UN Security Council from advancing a French resolution that would have called for an immediate ceasefire and articulated a false moral equivalency between terrorist attacks on Israel and Israeli self-defense. Instead, President Biden made an important decision to pursue quiet diplomacy with Israel rather than enabling circus-like public diplomacy at the dysfunctional Security Council – a positive departure from the Clinton, Bush, and Obama administrations. In a decidedly negative development, however, the UN Human Rights Council voted to establish a commission to investigate Israel for its conduct during the war. While the Biden administration said it regrets the vote, it did not reverse its decisions to participate in council meetings and to seek a seat on the council at its next election – moves widely viewed as conferring legitimacy on the United Nations’ most Orwellian agency.

Previous Trend: Very Negative

Following coordinated and sustained rocket attacks against Israel by the Iran-backed Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorist organizations, the Biden administration’s posture toward Iran remained unchanged – with U.S. Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley returning to Vienna for another round of indirect talks intended to re-establish the flawed 2015 nuclear deal. Malley’s stated position is that the United States will lift terrorism and missile sanctions on Iran. This is a dangerous reversal of Obama administration policy insisting that the United States has the right to impose such sanctions on Iran at any time. This reversal sends the worst possible signal to Tehran, suggesting that its banks and companies – including the Central Bank of Iran – will have a green light to bankroll Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, and other proxies throughout the Middle East. At the same time, Tehran continues to hold the International Atomic Energy Agency hostage over its inspection regime – threatening to destroy video recordings of Iran’s declared nuclear facilities. The Biden administration’s silence on this nuclear extortion and on the agency’s ongoing investigation into Iran’s undeclared nuclear activities undermines decades-long bipartisan nonproliferation policy in support of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement, and the Additional Protocol.

Previous Trend: Positive

As Hamas provoked another war with Israel, the Biden administration afforded Israel the space to achieve its military objectives against the Iran-backed terrorist group that controls Gaza. The United States blocked three draft statements by the UN Security Council that would have skewered Israel, and resisted calls to pressure Israel into a premature ceasefire. President Biden conveyed his support for Israel’s right to defend itself from Hamas’ indiscriminate rocket fire. However, Biden called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu four times during the conflict, urging Israel to de-escalate a conflict it did not start. While Biden took a victory lap after the ceasefire, he neglected to note that Egypt was almost entirely responsible for securing it. Secretary Blinken visited the region on May 25 and 26 and met with Israel’s senior leadership. Blinken reiterated the White House’s support for Israel’s right to self-defense but warned Israeli officials that a judicial decision evicting Palestinians squatting in houses in East Jerusalem could undermine the ceasefire – a direct affront to Israel’s independent legal system. Blinken also announced that the State Department would reopen the U.S. Consulate in Jerusalem to handle Palestinian affairs. He further stated that the United States will send an additional $112 million in aid to the West Bank and Gaza, including more than $32 million for UNRWA, the controversial UN agency that perpetuates the Palestinian refugee narrative by conferring refugee status upon descendants of the original refugees, most of whom are no longer alive.

Previous Trend: Neutral

At a May 21 summit, the U.S. and South Korean presidents reaffirmed their commitment to pushing North Korea toward complete denuclearization. President Biden appointed Ambassador Sung Kim as U.S. Special Representative for North Korea. The presidents called for the implementation of the Singapore and Panmunjom agreements and all relevant UN Security Council Resolutions. The U.S.-ROK joint statement and accompanying fact sheet reaffirmed a focus on North Korean human rights. The allies also agreed to terminate the Revised Missile Guidelines, enabling Seoul to develop long-range missile capabilities and to pursue advanced independent warfighting capabilities. This is important, as Seoul looks to assume wartime operational control. The joint statement implicitly referred to Chinese aggression in the South China Sea and against Taiwan and explicitly called for protection of the rules-based international order. The allies did not condemn Beijing’s human rights abuses in Xinjiang or Hong Kong, possibly due to Seoul’s reluctance. The statement also covered investment, cyber, space, and COVID-19 vaccine cooperation. Washington will provide 550,000 vaccinations for all ROK troops in the ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command. This is a comprehensive blueprint for the future of the alliance. Now for the real challenge: execution.

Previous Trend: Negative

The confirmation hearing of Ambassador Brian Nichols for assistant secretary for Western Hemisphere affairs was a positive step. Once Nichols is confirmed, a seasoned diplomat will be in charge of the region. Vice President Kamala Harris’ first foreign trip will be to Mexico and Guatemala. This signals that the administration is primed to engage in the region. But the lack of outreach to El Salvador and Honduras is troubling. Like its predecessor, the Biden administration has clearly condemned Cuba’s ongoing human rights violations, pledged continued support for Venezuela’s Interim President Juan Guaidó, and stressed the need for free elections in Venezuela. But the administration’s silence on dictator Nicolás Maduro’s efforts to legitimize his rule through sham municipal elections is concerning. And despite its condemnations, the administration has yet to announce significant actions to hold the Nicaraguan regime accountable for its continued persecution of political opponents. The administration has also failed to respond to three senators’ calls to prioritize vaccine distribution to the region. A failure to follow through on this could enable China and Russia to take the lead in COVID-19 response and harm long-term U.S. interests. Finally, Iranian cargo flights to Venezuela by the U.S.-sanctioned Iranian airline Qeshm Fars Air have resumed after a three-month hiatus, and a large Iranian warship is reportedly heading to Venezuela. The administration must act quickly to disrupt Iran’s support for Maduro.

Previous Trend: Very Negative

In late May, an anonymous Pentagon official told Sky News Arabia that the Biden administration is unlikely in the near future to impose new sanctions on Lebanese officials with ties to Hezbollah. Rather, the official said, the administration’s policy is to continue supporting the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and to maintain the stability of Lebanese government security institutions. The official added that President Biden’s national security team wants to increase the LAF’s capabilities, with the aim of confronting Hezbollah and “preventing the state’s security institutions from falling in the group’s hands.” To that end, the official expected “significant” aid to the LAF to continue. This comes after the administration sent a notification to Congress in April requesting $120 million in Foreign Military Financing for fiscal year 2021. The notification curiously notes that the aid reinforces the LAF as an “institutional counterweight” to Hezbollah, an objective the notification describes as “critical” to undermining Hezbollah’s “false rationale.” The administration is thus selling Congress the fiction that U.S. aid enables the LAF to actively weaken Hezbollah. In reality, the administration is not requiring the LAF to take any concrete action against the terrorist group, its arms build-up, or its hostile activities against Israel, as seen in the cross-border infiltrations from Lebanon during the latest war between Hamas and Israel.

Previous Trend: Neutral

It is official: President Biden and President Vladimir Putin will meet in Geneva on June 16 following the G7, NATO, and EU-U.S. summits. Negotiations over the agenda and a potential joint statement remain ongoing. Both sides dismiss any chance of another “reset.” Rather, the Biden administration aims simply for greater “predictability and stability” in U.S.-Russia relations. Putin accepted Biden’s summit offer after Secretary Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met with their counterparts, who both described the meetings as constructive. Heading into his meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Blinken called out Russia’s “unlawful maritime claims” in the Arctic. Biden also stressed America’s commitment to ensuring freedom of navigation in that increasingly important region. In other news, the administration on May 19 designated a raft of Russia-related targets involved in the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) gas pipeline, but waived sanctions against Nord Stream 2 AG and its German CEO, a longtime Putin crony. The waiver drew criticism from both parties in Congress as well as from Poland and Ukraine. Berlin, a staunch NS2 supporter, welcomed the move and later dispatched officials to Washington seeking a compromise deal. The administration’s logic has some merit: Sanctioning the company and its CEO likely would not stop NS2’s construction but would damage U.S.-German relations. Yet it remains unclear whether Biden will enforce other sanctions – specifically those connected to NS2’s verification and certification – that stand a better chance of preventing NS2 from coming online.

Previous Trend: Very Negative

With the Pentagon executing a troop withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Taliban threatened any neighboring country that would base U.S. forces in the future. Pakistan has already vowed not to host American troops. The Taliban has taken control of five new districts in Afghanistan and attacked the provincial capital of Laghman during the month of May. As of this writing, the Taliban directly threatens 17 of Afghanistan’s 34 provincial capitals. Australia is closing its embassy in Kabul, citing “an increasingly uncertain security environment.” The United States has completed the withdrawal of 30 to 44 percent of its forces and is on track to leave Afghanistan by mid-July. The Department of Defense is exploring options to evacuate thousands of Afghans who helped the United States. Amidst the withdrawal, the Defense Intelligence Agency said the Taliban and al-Qaeda maintain close ties – a strange acknowledgement of the very reason America first invaded Afghanistan in 2001. Elsewhere, the Islamic State is imposing its harsh version of Islamic law in northern Mali. The Southern African Development Community has not decided whether to take military action against the Islamic State’s enclave in Mozambique. The United Nations said that al-Shabaab “remains a serious threat” to security in Somalia. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria, is attempting to polish its image with the local tribes in Idlib and has mounted an effort to cast itself as a viable alternative to the regime of dictator Bashar al-Assad.

Previous Trend: Neutral

Secretary Blinken condemned Syria’s May 26 rigged presidential election as “fraudulent” in a joint statement with the foreign ministers of the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Italy. Meanwhile, the Treasury Department declined to renew a sanctions waiver for Delta Crescent Energy, thereby blocking Delta’s plans to pump oil from fields under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Washington’s longtime Syrian partner in the campaign against the Islamic State. Symbolically, Treasury’s refusal to extend the waiver is a repudiation of former President Donald Trump’s controversial assertion that U.S. troops would remain in Syria because America is “keeping the oil.” However, Delta was pursuing a partnership with the SDF and associated civilian authorities. The move therefore undermines desperately needed economic development in the region. Still, some help may be on the way from Washington; this month, the acting assistant secretary of state for the Middle East visited northeast Syria, where he announced “the delivery of stabilization assistance to liberated areas” – an apparent reversal of Trump’s cancelation of aid in 2018. Overall, the Biden administration’s policy toward Syria remains uncertain, with acting officials filling key posts, rather than presidential appointees.

Previous Trend: Positive

Ahead of his scheduled meeting with President Biden on the sidelines of the June 14 NATO Leaders’ Summit in Brussels, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attacked Biden’s stance on Israel’s Gaza campaign, accusing his U.S. counterpart of having “blood on [his] hands.” Erdogan also used racist rhetoric in his criticism of Israel, drawing a strongly-worded condemnation from the State Department, which slammed the remarks as “anti-Semitic,” “reprehensible,” and “incendiary.” The Biden administration also took steps to pressure Turkey for its permissive attitude toward illicit finance and human rights abuses. On May 17, the Treasury Department designated a Turkey-based company and three Turkey-linked individuals for facilitating Islamic State financial networks and transactions. These designations – the fifth tranche since April 2019 targeting Turkey-based jihadist networks – indicate the Biden administration will continue its predecessor’s campaign against Turkey-based terror finance. During a May 21 call with his Turkish counterpart, Secretary Blinken raised the importance of “promoting and protecting human rights and fundamental freedoms.” Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman met with her Turkish counterpart as well as civil society representatives during a May 28 visit to Turkey, during which she stressed the importance of supporting women’s and LGBTQI+ rights.