Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: Early June

Previous Trend: Negative

In Vienna, indirect negotiations aimed at reviving the expiring 2015 nuclear deal continue between Iran and the United States, brokered by five world powers. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors held a quarterly meeting in which Director-General Rafael Grossi informed the body of further Iranian noncooperation with a three-year probe into Tehran’s suspicious nuclear activities. The United States and European powers withheld official censure of Iran’s non-compliance to prioritize nuclear talks despite Tehran’s increasingly obstinate tone toward the IAEA. Iran is unlikely to cooperate with IAEA inquiries, since Tehran expects additional sanctions relief under the revived nuclear accord. The Islamic Republic’s breakout time – the time required to accumulate enough nuclear material for an atomic weapon – grew slightly due to an April sabotage event at a key Iranian enrichment facility. Meanwhile, China responded negatively to President Biden’s renewed COVID-19 origins probe, dismissing theories of the virus’ leak from a laboratory as “impossible.” Beijing is unlikely to provide the records necessary to determine the source of the outbreak. Biden’s defense budget proposal maintained needed funding for the modernization and continued reliability of the U.S. nuclear weapons arsenal.

Previous Trend: Positive

China featured prominently in President Biden’s meetings with G7 leaders last weekend and will likewise be a key focus of the NATO and EU-U.S. summits, reflecting growing transatlantic concern about the geopolitical and economic threat posed by China’s illiberal behavior. This includes Beijing’s refusal to cooperate meaningfully with the World Health Organization’s probe into COVID-19’s origins. The summits take place after the Senate’s long-awaited passage of the $250 billion Endless Frontiers Act, aimed at bolstering America’s technological competitiveness with China. The White House also released a comprehensive study regarding supply chain and manufacturing resiliency and plans to launch an interagency “strike force” to go after China on trade. These moves signal the Biden administration’s view that taking a stronger line against China is a moral and practical imperative. With global public opinion turning against Beijing, Chinese leader Xi Jinping announced plans for an image makeover aimed at creating a “credible, lovable and respectable image” for the country. This rebranding does not include a meaningful change in China’s policies, only in their framing for foreign audiences. The move is unlikely to succeed and suggests Chinese policymakers are increasingly nervous about China’s global standing. Also waning is Beijing’s success in vaccine diplomacy. With countries recognizing the limited effectiveness of China’s Sinopharm and Sinovac COVID-19 vaccines, the Biden administration may be able to turn the tables on China by ramping up its own vaccine exports throughout the developing world.

Previous Trend: Positive

In the wake of yet another ransomware attack, the Biden administration is stepping up engagement with the private sector as well as law enforcement and diplomatic efforts. Food processing company JBS, responsible for about one-fifth of U.S. meat production, said it paid an $11 million ransom to a Russian cybercriminal group. Anne Neuberger, the deputy national security adviser for cyber and emerging technologies, sent a letter to corporate leaders pledging that the U.S. government will work with international partners to disrupt ransomware networks and urging companies to implement cybersecurity best practices to protect themselves, their customers, and “the broader economy.” President Biden will raise Moscow’s harboring of criminal actors when he meets with President Putin on Wednesday. Building on an earlier announcement of a ransomware task force, the Department of Justice (DOJ) is prioritizing ransomware investigations like it does terrorism investigations, so that information is centralized to build stronger cases and prosecute actors higher up the ladder. DOJ also seized the majority of the proceeds from Colonial Pipeline’s ransomware payment, stripping the funds from cryptocurrency assets controlled by the hackers. Additionally, the Treasury Department announced it will require reporting on cryptocurrency transfers of more than $10,000 as a first step toward requiring cryptocurrency exchanges to adhere to traditional banking standards.

Previous Trend: Negative

In testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee on June 10, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin defended the Biden administration’s request for $715 billion for the Department of Defense for fiscal year 2022. That level of funding would not even keep pace with projected inflation and ignores the recommendation of the bipartisan, congressionally mandated National Defense Strategy Commission, which in 2018 called on “Congress [to] increase the base defense budget at an average rate of three to five percent above inflation” in the coming years. The senior Republican on the committee, Senator Jim Inhofe, warned that the Biden budget would force the Pentagon to “choose between being ready for today’s fight or the fight of the future.” Given the growing military threat from China, that is a choice Americans cannot afford. During the Obama administration, insufficient defense funding compelled the Pentagon to delay desperately needed modernization efforts, which hastened the erosion of U.S. military supremacy and put increased strain on aging equipment. Accordingly, the U.S. military confronted a dangerous readiness crisis by 2017. If Congress does not intervene and spend what is necessary on defense, U.S. military readiness will suffer, and Beijing may make Americans pay a steeper price this time.

Previous Trend: Positive

President Biden is in Europe, where he aims to revitalize America’s alliances and “demonstrat[e] the capacity of democracies” to address modern challenges and threats. At the G7, Biden emphasized U.S. leadership on issues including COVID-19 vaccines, economic recovery and corporate taxation, climate, anti-corruption, and ransomware and pushed European leaders to toughen their stances on China. While differences over China remain, the summit’s final communique reflected progress, including support for an alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. On Thursday, Biden met individually with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson to reaffirm the U.S.-UK “special relationship,” sign an updated Atlantic Charter, and urge Johnson to protect the Good Friday Agreement. At today’s NATO summit, Biden stressed U.S. commitment to Article 5 while also calling for increased burden sharing and modernization of the alliance to address China and emerging threats. In addition to discussing Russia, Afghanistan, and climate, the NATO allies designated China a “systemic” challenge, approved an upgraded cyber defense strategy, and committed to apply Article 5 “on a case-by-case basis” to major cyberattacks. At tomorrow’s EU-U.S. Summit, the White House says Biden and EU leaders “will focus on” ensuring “democracies,” rather than “China or other autocracies,” determine 21st-century “rules for trade and technology.”

Previous Trend: Negative

The stalemate in Yemen continues, with the United States urging a ceasefire while the Iran-backed Houthi rebels continue their military assault on Marib. On June 6, Houthi missiles caused an explosion near a gas station in Marib City that killed at least 17 people, including one five-year-old girl whose remains were burnt beyond recognition. The Houthis reportedly also sent a drone to attack the ambulance crew aiding the blast’s victims. Cathy Westley, the U.S. chargé d’affaires in Yemen, called for the “inhumane violence” to end and for the Houthis to “agree to an immediate ceasefire,” but all signs indicate the Houthis will accept neither. The United States appears to be increasing its public condemnations of the Houthis in response to the group’s continued obstruction of the peace process and decision to prioritize a military takeover of Marib, with U.S. Special Envoy for Yemen Tim Lenderking noting that the “Houthis bear major responsibility for refusing to engage” in negotiations. Elsewhere, the U.S. special envoy for the Horn of Africa, Jeffrey Feltman, visited Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. As the Gulf states have steadily increased their involvement in this strategic region, any American diplomatic push there will need Gulf consultation.

Previous Trend: Neutral

The looming threat over Taiwan came into sharper focus after a bipartisan delegation of U.S. senators travelled to Taipei on an American military aircraft. Their mission: deliver much-needed COVID-19 vaccines following a coronavirus outbreak on the island. Beijing branded the move a “vile provocation,” but an editorial in The Global Times, a regime mouthpiece, sought to tone down talk of war, calling instead for prudence in Beijing’s response. Meanwhile, China and India are building up military forces along their disputed border. This underscores the importance of strengthening U.S.-India relations and bolsters Pentagon requests for additional funding to “seize the initiative” against China in the region. Efforts to deter China’s regional aggression, however, must be balanced by improved diplomatic outreach. Initially, the Biden administration has demonstrated a preference for working with the Quad alliance rather than the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), owing mainly to ASEAN’s dysfunctional response to the coup in Myanmar. Managing ties with ASEAN states will require considerable finesse as the Biden administration seeks to rally regional governments to take a more assertive stance against China’s increasingly provocative behavior. Strengthening bilateral relations with Five Eyes partner New Zealand is necessary for similar reasons.

Previous Trend: Neutral

Despite promises from the Biden administration that resuming participation in and funding to the World Health Organization (WHO) would deliver organizational reforms, the agency elected Syria to its Executive Board despite the Bashar al-Assad regime’s record of bombing hospitals. Additionally, the WHO veered from debates over global health to single out Israel as a human rights violator – continuing the agency’s institutionalized anti-Israel behavior, which may constitute antisemitism under the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance’s working definition. In light of the ongoing controversy over the WHO’s mishandling of COVID-19, continuing investigations into sexual assault allegations, and denial of observer status for Taiwan, the administration’s decision to rejoin the WHO without first demanding reforms looks increasingly imprudent. At the same time, the administration has produced no clear strategy as to how it plans to achieve reforms going forward or whether it will wage a campaign to replace WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, who plans to run for a second term this year. In positive news, however, Israel was elected for the first time to the UN Economic and Social Council, though it does not appear the Biden administration played a significant role in the election.

Previous Trend: Very Negative

The Biden administration held back resolutions censuring Iran during the International Atomic Energy Agency’s quarterly board meeting even though the agency’s director general blasted Tehran’s refusal to cooperate with an investigation into Iran’s undeclared nuclear materials – a potential breach of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Meanwhile, Secretary of State Antony Blinken backed away from previous commitments that the administration would maintain U.S. terrorism sanctions on Iran’s central bank and oil company. In January, Blinken told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that it would not serve U.S. interests to lift those sanctions, and that such sanctions were not inconsistent with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. But last week, under questioning from Senator Susan Collins (R-ME), Blinken refused to reaffirm his previous commitment and suggested those sanctions could be inconsistent with the deal – a departure from the Obama administration’s promises that the United States could impose terrorism sanctions on Iran at any time. Additionally, in an apparent attempt to curry favor with Tehran ahead of a sixth round of indirect talks aimed at rejoining the flawed and expiring nuclear deal, the Treasury Department removed sanctions on entities connected to Iran’s energy sector and to illicit Syrian imports of Iranian oil.

Previous Trend: Positive

Secretary Blinken and Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz met in Washington on June 3 and discussed Israel’s security needs, Palestinian aid, and the importance of U.S. support for Israel. The following day, Blinken met virtually with a group of Palestinian Americans, who reportedly demanded U.S. condemnation of alleged Israeli human rights abuses. In a subsequent meeting with American Jewish organizations, Blinken affirmed the administration’s commitment to Israel’s right to self-defense and said he would soon announce an envoy to fight antisemitism. Blinken reinforced those sentiments in his testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Committee on June 7, during which he pledged to resupply missiles for Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system. In the same hearing, Blinken affirmed that the Biden administration and its key allies believe that aid can be provided to Gaza without benefiting Hamas. In a separate hearing, Blinken asserted that U.S. funding for the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) would be conditional on ridding its teaching materials of antisemitism and incitement to violence. Aid to UNRWA could benefit terrorist groups, since the agency does not scrutinize its partners for ties to violent extremists. Regarding the prospective Israeli government, Blinken stated that he would work “with whatever the Israeli government is,” and reiterated his commitment to a two-state solution. He and President Biden subsequently called their Israeli counterparts after Israel formed a government.

Previous Trend: Positive

The positive effects of the summit between President Biden and South Korean President Moon Jae-in are still being felt. The two leaders’ mutual commitment to protecting the rules-based international order led China to warn South Korea about siding with the United States. With the conclusion of its Korea policy review, the Biden administration has made it known it is ready to conduct diplomacy with the North, but that the ball is in North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un’s court. There are reports of “significant communication” between North and South Korea beginning around the time of the summit, leading to speculation about possible North-South engagement activities, but no details have emerged. Pyongyang will exploit such engagement, so the Moon administration should reconsider its support. Despite this communication, the ROK Ministry of Defense now assesses the Kim regime is focused on internal affairs. The North continues to struggle with its failed economy, COVID-19 mitigation measures, the effects of natural disasters, and sanctions. Pro-engagement Korea watchers interpreted a reported change to the Workers’ Party of Korea’s rules as an indication Pyongyang would no longer seek to unify Korea through revolution, even though the North’s constitution insists on it. Their hopes were quickly dashed when Pyongyang’s Propaganda and Agitation Department issued a clarification saying unification via revolution remains the objective.

Previous Trend: Neutral

As part of Vice President Kamala Harris’ trip to Mexico and Guatemala, the White House sought to offer a long-term solution to illegal migration by announcing millions of dollars in economic and educational investment. However, Harris’ advice to migrants – “don’t come” – earned stern criticism from progressive Democrats, and her refusal to visit the border itself left many perplexed. The Biden administration also began to address the Nicaraguan regime’s campaign of political repression. The administration has publicly and vocally condemned the regime’s arbitrary arrests of four opposition leaders, called President Daniel Ortega a dictator, and slapped sanctions on regime stalwarts the day after the regime’s latest wave of arrests. The administration can ramp up pressure by endorsing recent proposals such as the RENACER Act and the removal of Nicaragua from the Dominican Republic-Central America Free Trade Agreement, and by working within the Organization of American States to hold Ortega’s regime accountable. In this effort, Colombia and Brazil will be useful partners – if the administration chooses to engage them. Finally, the announcement that the United States will supply 6 million COVID-19 vaccine doses to the region is a welcome continuation of its humanitarian focus and pushback against Russian and Chinese vaccine diplomacy. A more robust vaccination campaign in the region is needed, however, to fully serve U.S. security interests.

Previous Trend: Very Negative

In a June 8 speech, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah declared that Iran could soon start sending shipments of fuel (gasoline and diesel) to Lebanon, which is having trouble financing imports. Nasrallah’s statement came right before the Biden administration announced it was lifting sanctions on several Iranian petroleum entities – likely a harbinger of substantial relief in store for Iran, which will trickle down to Hezbollah and, consequently, to Lebanon. This indirect U.S. support will augment other subsidies for Lebanon the Biden administration plans to underwrite. In public comments, a Defense Department official confirmed that the administration, behind the conceit of adopting a “whole-of-government approach,” was looking to broaden the scope of military assistance to support not just the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) but also “LAF families.” This comes in response to the public relations campaign spearheaded by the LAF commander to get the United States and other countries to offset inflationary pressure on the salaries of LAF personnel. Even as U.S. security assistance expands into social, food, and monetary realms, Washington not only is not conditioning this aid on the LAF’s taking measures against Hezbollah, but is also forgoing any requirement for reform, whether by the LAF or the Lebanese government.

Previous Trend: Neutral

When he meets President Putin in Geneva on Wednesday, President Biden says he will confront his Russian counterpart over Moscow’s malign behavior, including by reaffirming U.S. support for Ukraine and pressing Putin on human rights. Biden also plans to push his counterpart to rein in Russian cybercriminals, an issue of increasing U.S. concern following the recent Colonial Pipeline and JBS ransomware attacks. Yet Biden will also emphasize his desire for more “stable and predictable” U.S.-Russia relations and communicate willingness to cooperate with Moscow where interests align. Most notably, the administration hopes the summit will catalyze progress on nuclear arms control. The Russians share this goal but want a renewed U.S.-Russia strategic stability dialogue to include things such as U.S. missile defense and conventional precision-strike capabilities. There also appears to be a mutual desire to ease tit-for-tat diplomatic restrictions, with Biden reportedly planning to suggest the U.S. and Russian ambassadors return to their posts. On Sunday, Biden told reporters he was “open to” a new Putin proposal for reciprocal extradition of cybercriminals, but the White House quickly walked back Biden’s comments, saying the United States would simply continue to hold U.S.-based cybercriminals accountable. Putin may have been making an intentionally unrealistic offer whose likely rejection he could use to paint the United States as the uncooperative party.

Previous Trend: Very Negative

The United Nations reported that the al-Qaeda-Taliban relationship remains strong, and that Taliban deputy emir Sirajuddin Haqqani is “assessed to be a member of the wider Al Qaeda leadership.” Additionally, more than 10,000 foreign fighters are operating in Afghanistan, most of them under the banner of the Taliban. The group has taken control of at least 17 districts across all regions of Afghanistan over the past two months. Overall, it controls 96 of Afghanistan’s 407 districts and is contesting 207. The Taliban are also recruiting children to conduct suicide attacks against the Afghan government. Meanwhile, the Pentagon is weighing the possibility of conducting airstrikes against the Taliban if they threaten to overrun Kabul. So far, the U.S. military has completed 50 percent of its withdrawal from Afghanistan. Elsewhere, after ordering a drawdown of French military forces in Africa’s Sahel region, President Emmanuel Macron announced that a senior al-Qaeda leader was killed there. A claim filed at the High Court in London alleged Qatar funneled millions of dollars to an al-Qaeda-linked jihadist group in Syria. In Syria, the Islamic State is recruiting and indoctrinating children and adults at the al-Hol refugee camp.

Previous Trend: Neutral

A showdown with Russia is looming at the UN Security Council, which will vote in less than 30 days on whether to reauthorize direct shipments of UN aid into northwest Syria, home to an estimated 2.7 million displaced persons. The Assad regime cannot divert or otherwise interfere with shipments sent across the Turkish border rather than via Damascus. The White House says President Biden will discuss the issue directly with President Putin when they meet in Geneva on June 16. Administration officials are quietly telling reporters that Biden will press Putin firmly on the issue, yet senior officials have hedged on the subject in interviews. If Biden does not take a stand, Putin may conclude that U.S. expressions of concern are hollow, and that Russia will pay no price for deliberately attempting to starve out civilians in parts of Syria still outside Assad’s control. On their own, UN agencies have shown little to no ability to resist Assad’s manipulation of their work in Syria, a trend reinforced by Syria’s May 28 election to the WHO Executive Board despite the WHO itself documenting hundreds of the regime’s attacks on civilian healthcare facilities.

Previous Trend: Positive

In the run-up to President Biden’s first in-person meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the sidelines of the NATO summit on June 14, the Biden administration intensified its diplomatic contact with Ankara. After Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman’s visit to Turkey in late May, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, met with Turkey’s foreign minister and visited the Bab al-Hawa crossing on the Turkish-Syrian border. Although Washington and Ankara are at loggerheads over a long list of foreign and security policy issues, they see eye to eye on the need to maintain and expand the number of authorized border crossings for deliveries of UN humanitarian assistance to Syria via Turkey. In contrast to the critical tone other Biden administration officials have often used toward Turkey, Thomas-Greenfield praised Ankara’s policy toward displaced Syrians, while choosing not to mention the Erdogan government’s cut-off of drinking water and other pressure tactics it employs against the residents of areas under control of the Syrian-Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Council. The next day, however, Thomas-Greenfield criticized Turkey’s airstrikes “targeting [Kurdish] civilians at Makhmour refugee camp” in northern Iraq as “a violation of international and humanitarian law.”

The analyses above do not necessarily represent the institutional views of FDD.