Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: Early July

Previous Trend: Negative

The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons met last week to follow up on its April decision to strip Syria of its voting rights and privileges. The Biden administration used the meeting to push for action on Russia’s poisoning of Alexei Navalny and failure to account for its chemical weapons stockpile. On the nuclear front, China is building more than 100 new missile silos in its western desert as part of Beijing’s effort to at least double the size of its arsenal by 2030. The Biden administration has not articulated a strategy to convince China to join U.S.-Russia arms control talks. Iran continues its nuclear extortion activities, emboldened by Western governments’ decision in February not to pursue a resolution condemning the Islamic Republic at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Since Tehran reportedly restricted access for IAEA inspectors at the Natanz enrichment facility and did not extend its monitoring agreement with the IAEA, it is unclear whether the agency will get access to data from IAEA monitoring equipment installed at Iranian nuclear sites. A senior IAEA official in charge of safeguards visited Tehran for a “routine visit,” although no talks were scheduled on the IAEA-Iran impasse.

Previous Trend: Neutral

Chinese leader Xi Jinping delivered a fiery, highly choreographed address marking the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) centennial on July 1. The speech hammered home the message that only the party could have saved China from the poverty and humiliations of its past, and that only continued loyalty to the CCP and to Xi himself can ensure China’s economic development and global status. Not since Mao Zedong has the party been led by an autocrat unconstrained by CCP elites. To remain in power, the party must deliver on Xi’s promise of high-quality growth and shared prosperity. That means China needs to continue importing vast amounts of energy, food, and natural resources, which in turn requires access to foreign markets, capital, and technology. In other words, the CCP needs to integrate to survive, meaning it must either adapt to existing global norms and systems or alter them to suit Beijing’s needs. And Xi is trying to do both at once. While the Biden administration continues to reiterate that the U.S.-China relationship should not be viewed as a “new cold war,” and that the two countries can “co-exist peacefully,” Washington and Beijing are clearly entering unchartered waters.

Previous Trend: Positive

Less than one month after President Biden’s summit with President Putin in Geneva, Russian ransomware is wreaking havoc following a software supply chain attack of unprecedented scale. Affiliates of the Russian ransomware-as-a-service criminal gang REvil initially breached the Miami-based information technology (IT) company Kaseya. From there, the hackers penetrated dozens of managed service providers (MSPs) that use Kaseya’s software, as well as hundreds if not thousands of the clients of those MSPs. While there are not yet reports of damage to utilities or lifeline services in the United States, an attack of this scale against the IT sector — one of the 16 critical infrastructure sectors Biden identified as “off limits” — would appear to cross Biden’s red line for Putin. Biden warned that Washington expects Moscow to take action against Russia-based ransomware operations “even [when they are] not sponsored by the state.” While the White House has said it will judge the success or failure of Geneva over a six- to twelve-month timeframe, Russian hackers are forcing America’s hand. A lack of a swift and decisive response would undermine American signaling and deterrence in cyberspace and embolden criminal and state-backed hackers alike.

Previous Trend: Neutral

The top U.S. military commander in Afghanistan stepped down Monday in Kabul, marking the symbolic end of the current U.S. military mission in Afghanistan. The transfer of command follows the U.S. military’s departure earlier this month from Bagram Air Base. The United States plans to retain approximately 650 troops in Kabul to help secure the U.S. embassy. As U.S. forces sprint to the exits, the Taliban and their al-Qaeda allies have “taken control of 139 districts in the span of less than two months, nearly tripling the territory under [the Taliban’s] rule,” according to FDD’s Long War Journal. Biden defended his withdrawal decision on July 8, suggesting the terror threat had moved on from Afghanistan and asserting that “we need to meet the threats where they are today.” In reality, more than 20 U.S.-designated jihadist terrorist organizations remain in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region, including many that still seek to kill Americans. And now, thanks to the withdrawal, the United States has less knowledge regarding regional terrorist activities and will be less effective in responding to them. For years, politicians and pundits espousing the “endless war” narrative have pushed for military withdrawals. They are getting their way in Afghanistan, and the results — tragically and unsurprisingly — are not good.

Previous Trend: Neutral

Following last month’s Euro Quad ministerial, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met individually with his UK, French, and German counterparts over the past two weeks. On July 12, Austin discussed Russia, China, the Middle East, Afghanistan, and the NATO 2030 initiative with his UK counterpart, who affirmed that “when it comes to China, the United Kingdom stands shoulder-to-shoulder with the United States.” The two leaders also formally extended an agreement on U.S.-UK aircraft carrier and maritime power-projection cooperation. On July 9, Austin hosted his French counterpart. They focused on cooperation on counterterrorism as well as cyber, and China, among other subjects, and signed a “roadmap” for increased special forces cooperation. On June 30, Austin hosted Germany’s defense minister, who also met with National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. Meanwhile, the United States and Ukraine co-hosted the annual multinational Sea Breeze exercise. In addition to enhancing interoperability and capability, the exercise signals U.S. and NATO support for Ukraine and Black Sea security — a particularly important message following the Russian military’s recent efforts to intimidate both Kyiv as well as UK and Dutch warships in the Black Sea. Finally, the administration successfully persuaded the European Union to delay releasing a new corporate tax plan, eliminating a potential hurdle to the Biden-backed global corporate tax initiative.

Previous Trend: Negative

Prince Khalid bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s deputy minister of defense and brother of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), met with top officials at the White House, Pentagon, and State Department last week. The White House said that National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan “emphasized the importance of progress in advancing human rights in the Kingdom,” yet hosting such a senior official suggests that pressure on Riyadh has diminished. In late June, Saudi Arabia released Samar Badawi and Nassima al-Sada, two high-profile women’s rights activists detained during a summer 2018 crackdown. The charges against Badawi and Sada remain unclear, but both were sentenced to five years in prison (of which two were suspended) along with a five-year travel ban. The kingdom also appears to have improved the conditions under which former Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef is being held. A potential rival to MBS, bin Nayef has been detained without charge since March 2020. As the kingdom’s former intelligence chief, bin Nayef was a close ally of the U.S. intelligence community in the fight against al-Qaeda. Former U.S. officials told reporters they are livid that the Trump administration did not assist him more.

Previous Trend: Neutral

Tensions remain high in the Taiwan Strait following the Chinese Communist Party’s centennial celebration. Although Taiwan featured prominently in a speech Chinese leader Xi Jinping delivered in Tiananmen Square, his rhetoric did not indicate an acceleration of efforts or a meaningful change in tactics concerning China’s intended reunification with the island. For the Biden administration’s part, White House Indo-Pacific coordinator Kurt Campbell warned Beijing that any action against Taipei would be “catastrophic” for China’s interests. At the same time, Campbell reiterated that while the United States intends to maintain a strong unofficial relationship with the island, it does not support Taiwan’s independence. Questions surrounding whether and how the United States can potentially deter Chinese aggression against Taiwan are likely to be complicated by China’s efforts to secure new military bases throughout the Indo-Pacific. Already, it appears China is exploring potential basing opportunities in the small but geopolitically significant Pacific island of Kiribati, located only 1,800 miles from sensitive U.S. military installations in Hawaii. China is also pursuing military basing deals as far away as Cambodia, Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates, and Tanzania. Absent a concrete U.S. action plan, Washington could soon wake up to a changed world in which the People’s Liberation Army can project its power far beyond China’s shores.

Previous Trend: Positive

Secretary of State Antony Blinken congratulated Gay McDougall on her election to serve on the UN Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination (CERD) despite concerns about McDougall’s defense of the antisemitic Durban Conference in 2001 as well as the ongoing weaponization of CERD against Israel. In 2014, the Palestinian Authority successfully applied for CERD membership and, in 2018, submitted a complaint alleging that Israel practices segregation and apartheid, a charge currently under investigation. By nominating a representative with such a tarnished record, the Biden administration will be complicit in a UN-led effort to delegitimize Israel with false accusations of apartheid — contributing to the systemic antisemitism of Turtle Bay and undermining the working definition of antisemitism adopted by the Department of State. Separately, while the Biden administration has officially backed the candidacy of an American for the top post at the International Telecommunication Union, the administration remains silent on the August 2021 elections for director general and deputy director general of the Universal Postal Union and the announced re-election bid of Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus as director-general of the World Health Organization.

Previous Trend: Very Negative

After months of failing to respond to attacks by Iran-backed militias against U.S. forces in Iraq, President Biden ordered a limited air strike against three facilities along the Syria-Iraq border — only to see a resumption of attacks against U.S. forces days later, with no military response from the Biden administration. In March, Biden chose not to respond to an attack against a U.S. base in Iraq that left one American contractor dead. Biden reportedly also failed to respond to at least five attacks against U.S. forces between April and June. Meanwhile, Biden’s Iran envoy continued offering to lift sanctions against Iran, which would effectively pour billions of dollars into the coffers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — incentivizing further attacks against U.S. forces. By offering concessions in the face of attacks against U.S. personnel, Biden has not only undermined his ability to establish military deterrence in Iraq, but has also emboldened the Islamic Republic to escalate its nuclear misconduct. Tehran announced it would begin producing enriched uranium metal and denied the International Atomic Energy Agency access to Iran’s main uranium enrichment site — allowing Tehran to gain additional nuclear weapons-related knowledge and further eroding the integrity of the nuclear watchdog agency.

Previous Trend: Neutral

Palestinian streets have been simmering for weeks over the death of activist Nizar Banat in Palestinian Authority custody. On June 24, State Department Spokesperson Ned Price declared that the United States is “deeply disturbed” by the affair, and called for a “thorough and transparent investigation.” Meanwhile, the State Department reportedly deleted references to the Palestinian government’s incitement to violence and support for boycotts against Israel in a report the department recently sent to Congress. The report also remains silent regarding Palestinian efforts to counter Arab normalization with Israel. Despite White House commitments to uphold the normalization agreements, the administration has indefinitely suspended contributions to the Abraham Fund. The fund was supposed to direct money into private-sector-led initiatives to foster growth and cooperation among Abraham Accords partners. The manager of the fund resigned the day President Biden took office, and was never replaced. On July 8, Israeli forces demolished the West Bank house of U.S. citizen Muntasir Shalabi, who shot and killed an Israeli teenager in May. The Biden administration pressured Israel to delay the move, and the U.S. Embassy in Israel called on all sides to “refrain from unilateral steps that exacerbate tensions and undercut efforts to advance a negotiated two-state solution.”

Previous Trend: Positive

Pyongyang responded to U.S. diplomatic overtures with a statement from Kim Yo Jong (North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un’s sister) saying the United States “had wrong expectations for talks.” Pyongyang is likely consumed with internal problems resulting from COVID-19 mitigation measures, its failed economy, humanitarian disasters, and international sanctions. Kim Jong Un has made leadership changes, resuming his reign of terror. There have been reports of a major food crisis, and when Kim returned to public view, it was apparent he had lost a significant amount of weight. The dictator likely will not negotiate without first receiving sanctions relief, which, if provided, would only embolden his blackmail diplomacy. The administration continues its “principled and practical diplomacy” with engagement with regional powers, and Ambassador Sung Kim, the U.S. special representative for North Korea, reached out to his Chinese counterpart following the former’s trip to South Korea. The White House’s pursuit of “stern deterrence” will also continue. The alliance announced that ROK-U.S. combined command post training in August will proceed as scheduled, though there are outspoken officials, including 76 ROK assemblymen, who continue to argue for canceling ROK-U.S. exercises to spur Kim Jong Un to negotiate. However, changes to the exercise program for the past three years have failed to convince him to conduct substantive negotiations, and failing to maintain readiness puts the ROK-U.S. alliance at risk.

Previous Trend: Positive

While there has been ample travel to the region by senior U.S. officials, the Biden administration has made almost no tangible progress in promoting U.S interests such as countering corruption and illegal immigration. Instead, the United States has merely offered aid. The administration missed another opportunity when it chose Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland as the most senior official to meet with a delegation of the interim Government of Venezuela, including their foreign minister, during their most recent visit to the United States. By contrast, Interim President Juan Guaidó attended the 2020 State of the Union as an official guest of the president. While the administration ultimately imposed new visa restrictions on Ortega regime officials for their continued harassment of opposition and civil society leaders, the administration offered nothing but words to support the growing democratic protest movement in Cuba. Finally, in perhaps the most surprising demonstration of its lack of interest, the White House took nearly 12 hours to issue a statement on the assassination of Haitian President Jovenel Moise on July 7. When murderous gangs can enter the home of a democratically elected leader and assassinate him with little response from the White House, the region is not getting the attention it deserves.

Previous Trend: Very Negative

The Biden administration is pushing Saudi Arabia to resume its long-suspended funding to Hezbollah-controlled Lebanon. The administration is in lockstep with France, whose president told Hezbollah officials last August he wanted “to work with [them].” Although the Saudis skipped a French-organized donor conference on behalf of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) last month, the Biden administration has since partnered with France in a sustained campaign to pressure the Saudis. Secretary Blinken and his French counterpart raised the matter with the Saudi foreign minister at last month’s G20 meeting in Italy. Blinken did so again with the Saudi deputy minister of defense in Washington last week. In a very unusual move, the State Department sent the U.S. ambassador to Lebanon to the kingdom, jointly with her French counterpart. The purpose of the trip was to push the Saudis to renew funding to the LAF and to provide humanitarian aid, and likely to embroil the Saudis in the quicksand of Lebanon’s government formation process. A related purpose, as the U.S. Embassy in Beirut put it, was to “help stabilize [Lebanon’s] economy,” which Hezbollah and its junior partners have run into the ground. However, the U.S.-French joint communique did not appear to show much Saudi interest.

Previous Trend: Neutral

The latest cyberattack by REvil, a Russia-based cybercriminal group likely at least tolerated by Moscow, has tested President Biden’s warning to President Putin that America may retaliate against cyberattacks emanating from Russian soil. During a July 9 phone call following the attack, Biden urged Putin to “disrupt” Russia-based ransomware groups and indicated Washington would otherwise take action itself. The two sides will discuss the issue further during July 16 expert-level talks, though previous rounds have reportedly offered little reason for optimism. Moscow likely views cybercrime as leverage in broader U.S.-Russia disputes over information security. Meanwhile, climate envoy John Kerry is in Moscow this week following a July 1 phone call wherein he and Russia’s foreign minister reportedly agreed to expand bilateral contacts on climate issues. Biden on June 28 called for climate cooperation as part of his push to ease U.S.-Russia tensions. Separately, negotiations have begun on the schedule and agenda for the Strategic Stability Dialogue announced at the Geneva summit. Following the return of their ambassadors last month, the two sides have also held initial discussions on potential prisoner swaps and easing of diplomatic restrictions, with Moscow predictably playing hardball. Finally, the administration secured an up to 12-month extension of vital UN cross-border aid to Syria’s Idlib province, doubling the six-month Russian proposal.

Previous Trend: Very Negative

The Taliban continue to rampage across Afghanistan. They now control more than 200 of the country’s 407 districts. The group’s offensive in the north directly threatens the Afghan government’s existence. On July 7, Taliban fighters entered Baghdis’ provincial capital, briefly seized control of key government facilities, and freed more than 200 prisoners. The Taliban fought inside the city for over two days before withdrawing. President Biden said he “will not send another generation of Americans to war in Afghanistan,” and “terrorism is not emanating from that part of the world.” Secretary Blinken said the Islamic State remains a global threat, and he is pressuring the French and British to repatriate captured Islamic State fighters. France announced it will downsize its counterterrorism force in the Sahel, then signed a “roadmap” with the United States aimed at increasing counterterrorism cooperation between their special operations forces. Meanwhile, the Islamic State launched its first-ever suicide attack in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. A Ghanaian native who belonged to al-Qaeda’s Group for Support of Islam and Muslims also wounded four French soldiers in a suicide attack in Mali. Elsewhere, an al-Shabaab suicide bomber detonated his explosives near the headquarters of Somalia’s National Intelligence and Security Agency.

Previous Trend: Neutral

The UN Security Council voted unanimously last week to reauthorize cross-border humanitarian operations that bring aid from Turkey directly into northwestern Syria. Cross-border shipments bypass Damascus, preventing obstruction and expropriation by the regime of Bashar al-Assad. The U.S. government insists the reauthorization is valid for 12 months, whereas Russia asserts that only six months are guaranteed. The Biden administration initially pushed for re-opening two UN crossing points previously shut down by Russian vetoes, yet the new resolution authorizes shipments only via Bab al-Hawa, the one crossing point that remains open. Reaching an agreement with Moscow averted an impending crisis, since the 4 million residents of northwestern Syria depend heavily on the United Nations for food, medicine, and shelter. Still, aid organizations condemned the deficiencies of the new Security Council resolution. Physicians for Humans Rights called it a “shameful compromise” with Russia’s callous demands. Oxfam said the limited duration of the deal and the restriction of aid to a single crossing point were “woefully insufficient.” It also remains unclear whether the Biden administration made concessions to Moscow on other fronts, such as sanctions enforcement, to secure the new resolution. At least for a few months, civilians in northwestern Syria will be spared from greater suffering.

Previous Trend: Neutral

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s proposal for Turkish troops to guard and run Kabul’s airport following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan continues to mute the Biden administration’s response to Ankara’s transgressions at home and abroad. The readouts of the June 19 and July 7 phone calls between Secretary Austin and his Turkish counterpart do not include any mention of ongoing U.S. concerns about Ankara’s deployment of the Russian S-400 air defense system. Besides one anodyne comment from a State Department spokesperson, the Biden administration remains silent on Ankara’s latest attempt to ban Turkey’s second-largest opposition party, the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party, thereby disenfranchising nearly 6 million voters. Another partial exception to the Biden administration’s passivity was a June 28 tweet by State Department Spokesperson Ned Price expressing “concern” about Turkey’s “prevention of the exercise of freedoms of expression and peaceful assembly” following the Erdogan government’s brutal crackdown on Istanbul’s Pride march. An impending test of U.S. policy toward Turkey will be the seriousness of the administration in its ongoing legal battles with Ankara to extradite Sezgin Baran Korkmaz, an Erdogan-linked Turkish businessman whom a federal grand jury indicted for his alleged role in money laundering schemes that attempted to defraud the U.S. Treasury of over $1 billion. Korkmaz is currently in Austrian custody.

The analyses above do not necessarily represent the institutional views of FDD.