While others may have caused and exacerbated the crisis, resolving it would help defuse the Russian and Syrian threat to the base at al-Tanf and establish the United States and its allies on the ground as sources of reliable humanitarian assistance, a critical part of establishing good will and stability in the area surrounding al-Tanf.
Russian aggression cannot go unanswered. History suggests that when Putin thinks he can get away with aggression in the region, he will not hesitate to act accordingly.
Parliamentary elections will be held in Moldova in February 2019. Pro-European Union parties see the vote as crucial for continued momentum following an Association Agreement in 2016. Recent mayoral elections in Chisinau, however, may be a bad omen for transparency and court interference. Russia has stated zero tolerance for more “color revolutions,” as their actions in Ukraine have shown. For Erdoğan, keeping the status quo in Moldova, i.e., weak institutions and rule of law, is more favorable than EU accession. A poor and corrupt Moldova will allow Russia and Turkey to continue to play power politics not only in the EU’s backyard but also with the minorities at home. Such machinations may doom the tiny Gagauz to be pawns in Putin and Erdoğan’s greater regional ambitions for territorial and spiritual domination.
As tensions continue to mount, not only the Ecumenical Patriarch, but also the Eastern Orthodox Church could become the next battleground of Putin’s expansionist ambitions, and their odd resonance with Erdogan’s own bid for the leadership of the Muslim world.