Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: Late August

Previous Trend: Negative

The United States announced new sanctions against Russia for its chemical weapons attack on Alexei Navalny and Moscow’s ongoing chemical weapons program. The Russian Federal Security Service’s Criminalistics Institute, the entity likely responsible for producing and administering the Novichok nerve agent used to poison Navalny, is now sanctioned, along with several other state entities and participating individuals. Other than that, however, the United States has done little to respond to challenges in the nonproliferation space. After U.S.-Republic of Korea military exercises this month, the North Korean regime issued threats to increase its deterrent capabilities. Open-source researchers discovered a third missile silo field under construction in China, likely intended to field nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles. According to U.S. officials, the number of newly uncovered missile silos in China has reached 350 to 400. In the wake of stalled talks to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, and absent Western pushback to Iran’s recent nuclear and regional provocations, Tehran increased its production of 60 percent highly enriched uranium and uranium metal, both pivotal to mastering materials used in nuclear weapons. The forthcoming International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors meeting in September will reveal whether the United States and its European allies have the resolve to counter Iran’s growing nuclear threat.

Previous Trend: Neutral

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has wasted little time exploiting the Taliban’s takeover in Afghanistan. Chinese diplomats and state media sought to portray the United States as an unreliable security guarantor, one unwilling and incapable of defending Taiwan in a potential crisis scenario. Chinese propagandists are painting the Afghanistan debacle as further indication of China’s ascent and the West’s decline. Beijing holds no real bonds of trust or affection for the Taliban. Nevertheless, given Beijing’s pragmatic focus on economic and security interests, China is all but certain to formally recognize the Taliban. But recognition will likely come with a catch: denying safe haven to Uighur exiles from China’s Xinjiang province. This includes armed Uighur groups operating along the China-Afghanistan border, including several that gained combat experience in Syria. Increased Chinese investment in Afghanistan is likely many years off on account of the chaos. Still, the American debacle is China’s gain. Watch for Beijing to gain access to Afghanistan’s lucrative rare earths in a competition that is already titled heavily in China’s favor.

Previous Trend: Positive

President Joe Biden and senior administration officials met with private-sector critical-infrastructure, finance, technology, and education leaders on Wednesday in the highest-profile public-private cybersecurity discussion since a wave of ransomware attacks by Russian criminal groups. In addition to meeting with the president, representatives from the financial, energy, and water sectors reportedly met with the secretaries of homeland security and energy to discuss greater cross-sector information sharing. The measure of success will be if these discussions translate into greater cybersecurity coordination with critical-infrastructure operators. Following the meetings, the White House and several attendees announced billion-dollar investments to improve the security and integrity of the technology supply chain, expand the cyber workforce, and provide resources to state and local governments and historically underserved communities. The Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) also held the first meeting of the newly created Joint Cyber Defense Collaborative (JCDC) this week. The JCDC aims to consolidate planning, information sharing, and response. It remains to be seen how the new organization can turn public-private cooperation into action.

Previous Trend: Neutral

Politicians and pundits on both the left and right parroting the “endless war” mantra and pushing for a withdrawal from Afghanistan that ignores conditions on the ground finally got their way — and the results are catastrophic. Many of those who advocated for withdrawal are now expressing shock and sadness about the predictable and preventable consequences of the policy they recommended. In the coming days, Congress must press the administration to do what is necessary to get Americans and vulnerable Afghans to safety. Members of Congress should also demand answers as to why the withdrawal went so badly. But Americans should not miss the main reason for the disaster we are witnessing: the decision to conduct a full military withdrawal by a specific date, knowing that it would almost certainly result in a Taliban takeover and terrorist safe haven. It is also worth noting that for the second time in a decade (Iraq in 2011 and Afghanistan in 2021), we are witnessing the consequences of self-delusion in Washington and the mistaken belief that we can ignore persistent threats and safely withdraw U.S. forces anyway. Washington will now have to work overtime to convince allies that the United States is reliable and adversaries that aggression will not result in American retreat.

Previous Trend: Positive

The Biden administration’s botched Afghanistan withdrawal has undermined European faith in American leadership and strained relations with key European allies already frustrated by the administration’s unilateral decision to withdraw. The administration left its allies scrambling to evacuate their citizens and Afghan asylum-seekers. President Biden even drew British criticism for allegedly ignoring requests to discuss Afghanistan and delaying an Afghanistan-related call with his UK counterpart. Moscow predictably seized the opportunity to cast doubt on U.S. commitment to Ukraine, while pro-Russia voices in Europe have exploited the crisis to question NATO’s legitimacy. Meanwhile, European leaders worry that fears over a resulting refugee crisis may empower far-right populist forces ahead of elections in Germany and France. On a positive note, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman expressed “solidarity” with Lithuania amid Chinese pressure over Vilnius’ decision to allow Taipei to open a Taiwanese Representative Office in Lithuania. The diplomats also called on Minsk to stop “orchestrating irregular migrant flows” into Lithuania in retaliation for Western sanctions. Finally, the administration intensified diplomatic pressure on Warsaw to abandon legislation restricting Holocaust restitution claims and to halt its broadside against independent news station TVN. Unfortunately, Poland’s president signed the Holocaust bill, and the country’s ruling party appears committed to passing the TVN law.

Previous Trend: Negative

President Biden’s administration worked the phones this week, thanking top Gulf officials for their support amidst the ongoing U.S. evacuation from Afghanistan. Prior to the withdrawal, Washington had emptied bases in Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, with the intention of using them to house Afghans waiting for entry visas to the United States. Gulf governments, in helping Washington shoulder the load during a crisis, demonstrated their ability to be reliable U.S. partners. However, it is increasingly clear to the Gulf states that Washington lacks a coherent policy for their region. In his call with Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed, Biden “agreed on the priority of working together to address regional and global challenges.” The phrase “regional challenges” usually signals confronting destabilizing Iranian behavior. However, in Biden’s call with Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad, the two leaders “welcomed the upcoming summit of regional states to be held in Baghdad.” So far, America’s Gulf allies — except for Qatar — have perceived the Baghdad summit as a means of breaking Tehran’s isolation. Washington has yet to offer a coherent policy on Iran, a shortcoming that makes most U.S. Gulf allies nervous, particularly in the wake of America’s collapse in Afghanistan.

Previous Trend: Positive

America’s hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan coincided with Vice President Kamala Harris’ visits this week to Singapore and Vietnam. While Harris intended to focus on climate change and the pandemic in her meetings with regional leaders, events in Kabul overshadowed the trip. Much to Beijing’s delight, Vietnam also demurred in raising its partnership with the United States from “comprehensive” to “strategic.” However, China appears likely to overplay its hand by directly linking events in Afghanistan with those in Taiwan. Beijing can say what it wishes about America’s failure to build a better Afghanistan. Despite China’s best efforts, Taiwan is a thriving democracy with a strong civil society. Still, Beijing will seek to exploit the Afghanistan drawdown to increase military pressure on Taipei and, by extension, the United States. Accurately predicting if and when a Taiwan crisis could occur will loom large for the Biden administration, particularly as it grapples with its deeply flawed assumptions about Afghanistan. Also at stake will be the administration’s approach to future arms sales to Taipei, including a renewed emphasis on asymmetric capabilities.

Previous Trend: Very Negative

The Biden administration was a non-factor at the UN Security Council and other major international fora amidst the disastrous U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. India convened an emergency meeting on Afghanistan during which the U.S. ambassador played the role of observer to history rather than the representative of a great power. Similarly, it was the United Kingdom that pressed for a Security Council resolution and organized discussions at the G7 — not the Biden administration. Separately, with candidate applications for the World Health Organization (WHO) director-general election due next month, the administration remains silent on whether it will support Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus for another five-year term or back a challenger to lead WHO reform efforts. Meanwhile, the administration continued funding to the UN Relief and Works Agency despite reports that Hamas prevented bomb inspectors from accessing a terror tunnel located beneath an UNRWA school, and that UNRWA refused to terminate staff members fomenting violence and antisemitism. Finally, absent intervention from the Biden administration, the United Nations is set to terminate whistleblower Emma Reilly at the end of August. Reilly had shed light on the UN Human Rights Council’s alleged practice of providing Beijing with the names of Chinese dissidents.

Previous Trend: Very Negative

The Biden administration’s botched withdrawal from Afghanistan and failure to prevent the Taliban from toppling the government in Kabul weakened America’s already waning deterrence vis-à-vis the Islamic Republic of Iran amidst the regime’s continued terror and nuclear threats. The administration did impose terrorism sanctions on an oil-smuggling ring that generated illicit revenues for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force — potentially part of a pressure-based contingency plan targeting Iran’s sanctions-busting oil sales to China. Still, U.S. Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley told Politico that he believes a U.S. return to the deeply flawed Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action “is in the cards.” Returning to the deal would free up billions of dollars for the IRGC by lifting U.S. sanctions on its banking and corporate financiers. Meanwhile, despite growing European concern over Iran’s nuclear activities, the Biden administration has not indicated it will pursue a resolution censuring Iran at the September meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors. The IAEA continues to report that Iran is producing uranium metal and enriching uranium to 60 percent purity — steps that can contribute to a nuclear weapons program.

Previous Trend: Neutral

On August 9, Vice President Harris called Israeli President Isaac Herzog to congratulate him on his new role. CIA Director Bill Burns visited Israel in mid-August and reportedly warned Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett about concerns regarding Chinese investments in Israel’s technology sector. Burns also discussed the Iranian threat and ways to strengthen U.S.-Israel relations. The State Department criticized Israeli settlement construction announcements as an unhelpful “unilateral step.” On August 25, Bennett visited Washington, where he and Secretary Blinken discussed adding Israel to the visa waiver program. Bennett also met with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin as top Israeli and American defense officials convened the annual Defense Policy Advisory Group. U.S. officials conveyed the administration’s commitment to Israel’s security and to replenishing Iron Dome batteries. Israel is watching nervously as the United States considers whether it will reopen a consulate for the Palestinians in Jerusalem. The Israelis are also monitoring the region carefully to determine whether the ill-fated American withdrawal from Afghanistan bolsters regional jihadist movements that often put Israel in their sights. To Jerusalem’s chagrin, the collapse of U.S. policy in Afghanistan already appears to have buoyed the regime in Tehran financially.

Previous Trend: Neutral

Ambassador Sung Kim, the U.S. special representative for North Korea, arrived in Seoul to meet with his South Korean counterpart. Kim met separately with his Russian counterpart, who was also visiting Seoul. Kim and South Korean Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong discussed ROK-U.S. humanitarian assistance to the North as well as prospects for resuming the peace process. Kim also stated that the United States harbors no hostile intentions toward North Korea and is prepared to negotiate. The ball remains in North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un’s court to respond. ROK-U.S. combined military exercises continued into their second week. So far, there has been no provocation from North Korea. The ROK-U.S. Special Measures Agreement (on cost sharing) has been approved in committee and is now awaiting National Assembly approval, which will allow funds to be released to support U.S. Forces Korea. The U.S. missteps in Afghanistan have undoubtedly stoked concerns in Seoul. The Biden administration has worked to reaffirm the importance of Asian allies and U.S. commitments in Asia. South Korea will receive 391 Afghan evacuees and provide them the status of “persons of special merit” rather than refugees. The Taliban hope for South Korean diplomatic recognition and economic engagement, but that is unlikely.

Previous Trend: Neutral

Afghanistan has overwhelmed the Biden administration, resulting in reduced focus on the Western Hemisphere. On the Venezuela file, negotiations between the Nicolás Maduro regime and the opposition began in Mexico, but the lack of a U.S. presence could be an unforced error, as U.S. sanctions are the reason for the regime’s participation. As the immigration crisis at America’s southern border continues to escalate, reports suggest that the Biden administration may restart the same Trump-era policies it abandoned — compounding perceptions that the administration is ill-equipped to handle a number of international challenges. Finally, news that Mexico has sued U.S. weapons manufacturers for supplying drug cartels hints at deteriorating ties between the two countries. In Haiti, the administration finally pledged $32 million in aid following a 7.2 magnitude earthquake that left over 2,000 dead and over 12,000 injured. While critically needed, the response came over a week after the tragedy, despite a White House announcement that the U.S. Agency for International Development would lead an “immediate” response. The administration, meanwhile, so far remains committed to not extending Temporary Protected Status for Haitians. One positive development this week: Treasury imposed anti-corruption sanctions against three Paraguay-based money launderers, including a suspected Hezbollah financier. Paraguayan authorities arrested one of them following a U.S. extradition request.

Previous Trend: Very Negative

The Biden administration has confirmed, as reported last month, that it is supporting a plan to bring Egyptian natural gas and Jordanian surplus electricity to Lebanon via Syria. The Lebanese and the Jordanians had lobbied Washington to back the plan, which would entail waiving sanctions on the Bashar al-Assad regime. According to Dorothy Shea, the U.S. ambassador in Beirut, “There is a will to make this happen.” Shea added that the administration is in talks with the World Bank to finance the plan. In addition to paying for the gas, including transit fees to the Assad regime, the financing would likely need to cover what the ambassador labeled “some logistical things” — apparently a reference to likely needed repairs to the Syrian sections of the gas pipeline and electric transmission lines. In essence, the plan will likely include infrastructure investment in western Syria. Shea’s comments followed an announcement by Hezbollah’s secretary general that Iran will be sending fuel shipments to Lebanon. Far from signaling U.S. opposition to, or intent to enforce sanctions on, Iranian oil trade, the ambassador appeared to acquiesce, offering only a rather bizarre remark about Hezbollah’s ability to distribute the fuel “equitably.”

Previous Trend: Neutral

Secretary Austin and his Canadian counterpart approved a joint statement last week “to guide [U.S.-Canadian] collaborative efforts to modernize NORAD” to counter evolving Russian and Chinese threats to North America. On August 20, the anniversary of Moscow’s poisoning of Alexei Navalny, the United States and United Kingdom sanctioned persons involved in the attack or in Russia’s illicit chemical weapons program and called on Moscow to fulfill its Chemical Weapons Convention obligations. The administration also issued additional congressionally mandated sanctions over the Navalny attack, restricting Russian firearms imports and U.S. nuclear- and missile-related exports to Russia. Separately, the administration sanctioned two Russian entities and one vessel involved in Nord Stream 2 (NS2) but continued to waive sanctions against NS2’s project company and its CEO. On August 23, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm led the U.S. delegation to Ukraine’s Crimea Platform Summit, designed to increase pressure on Russia to return Crimea. Granholm and her German and Ukrainian counterparts discussed ways to ensure continued Russian gas transit through Ukraine after NS2 comes online, but the German minister indicated Berlin opposes measures that would pose “insurmountable obstacles” to NS2. Finally, an Oklahoma-based company’s complaint about non-competitive Russian fertilizer exports triggered a U.S. review of Russia’s “market economy” status, whose rescission would enable the government to more easily impose special anti-dumping duties.

Previous Trend: Very Negative

After a three-and-a-half-month-long offensive, the Taliban overran 33 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces and seized control of Kabul. President Ashraf Ghani fled the country, and Vice President Amrullah Saleh declared himself acting president but retreated to Panjshir province, where he is organizing a resistance. Hundreds of al-Qaeda and Islamic State prisoners were freed from prisons. The U.S. military is attempting to evacuate thousands of American citizens and tens of thousands of Afghan allies who are on Taliban death lists. The Taliban have surrounded the airport in Kabul and are impeding the travel of Americans and others to the airport. Yesterday, an Islamic State attack at the airport killed 13 U.S. troops and scores of Afghan civilians. President Biden vowed retaliation, but the withdrawal has diminished the U.S. military’s ability to do so. Biden said the evacuation would conclude on August 31. It is unclear if the deadline will be extended if U.S. citizens are still in Afghanistan. The Taliban said they would not tolerate a U.S. presence in Kabul after that date. The Taliban have named former Guantanamo Bay detainees and al-Qaeda-linked commanders Mullah Zakir and Mohammad Nabi Omar as their defense chief and governor of Khost province, respectively. Al-Qaeda branches across the globe, along with other jihadist groups, such as Hamas, have celebrated the Taliban’s victory.

Previous Trend: Neutral

The State Department marked the eighth anniversary of the Ghouta massacre, in which the regime of Bashar al-Assad employed sarin nerve gas to kill more than 1,400 Syrians on August 21, 2013. “We reiterate our resolve to ensure that there is no impunity for those who use these weapons,” said the department’s spokesman, Ned Price. However, Damascus continues to obstruct efforts by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) to investigate the regime’s illicit weapons program. Earlier this month, the OPCW demanded additional information regarding a Syrian claim that evidence from an alleged chlorine attack in 2018 was destroyed by an Israeli airstrike. While responsive to events on the ground, the Biden administration has yet to define its overall approach toward Syria. The administration’s Syria policy review remains ongoing, and President Biden has not appointed a special envoy for Syria. Prior to the crisis in Afghanistan, the White House had signaled that it would keep several hundred troops in northeastern Syria to support the ongoing campaign against the Islamic State. Yet now, all U.S. commitments in the region seem uncertain as the administration grapples with the fallout from the Taliban surge. 

Previous Trend: Positive

The Biden administration’s ill-advised attempts to cut a deal with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for Turkish troops to guard and run Kabul’s airport following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan came to a crashing halt with the Taliban’s takeover of the Afghan capital. Less than 24 hours after Kabul fell, Ankara expressed its willingness to provide support to the Taliban and even offered to help the group secure international diplomatic recognition. On August 17, the Turkish foreign minister went so far as to state that Ankara views the Taliban’s messages positively. That same day, U.S. officials reaffirmed that “the Turks remain absolutely linked in to the security mission” in Afghanistan. On August 25, as Turkey started to evacuate Turkish troops from Afghanistan, Erdogan’s spokesperson announced that Turkey is in talks with the Taliban to provide technical support to operate Kabul’s airport. In another dangerous development, Washington chose to look the other way concerning Turkey’s multiple airstrikes on a Yazidi hospital in northwestern Iraq’s Sinjar region on August 17. An anodyne tweet by the State Department merely noted that the department is “aware of the press reports concerning the Turkish operations” and reaffirms its “view that military action in Iraq should respect Iraqi sovereignty.”

The analyses above do not necessarily represent the institutional views of FDD.