Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: Early August

Previous Trend: Negative

China has built at least 230 new nuclear missile silos, according to satellite imagery assessments by open-source researchers. The findings add weight to earlier U.S. government analysis that Beijing stands to “at least double” its nuclear weapons arsenal over the next decade, but the Biden administration has yet to articulate a strategy for engaging China in arms control talks. Indirect nuclear negotiations between the United States, Iran, and five other world powers remain stalled as Tehran’s ultra-hardline president, Ebrahim Raisi, assumes office. Iran has increased deadly attacks and hijacking of regional shipping and maritime interests to extort sanctions relief from the West. The international community has not responded to Tehran’s provocations, although U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken pledged a “collective response.” South Korean lawmakers publicly stated that according to a briefing from Seoul’s intelligence chief, North Korean preconditions for restarting denuclearization talks include permission to export minerals, import refined oil and necessities, and purchase luxury commodities for the North Korean elite. Pyongyang likely seeks to placate its elites and obtain concessions from Washington. A Biden administration official hinted that the administration might relax enforcement of UN sanctions if North Korea engages in dialogue.

Previous Trend: Positive

Wall Street investors, long bullish on China, suffered serious losses as Chinese regulatory crackdowns triggered a nearly $1 trillion meltdown for listed Chinese stocks. These latest moves are consistent with the central tenets of “Xi Jinping Thought,” which asserts the Chinese Communist Party’s “leadership over all work.” Technology firms will likely face greater supervision given the strategic importance Beijing attaches to the vast quantities of personal data these firms have amassed. The upshot could be an exodus of foreign capital from China as investors lose faith in “Xiconomics.” Further adding to the pressure, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission announced new disclosure requirements for Chinese companies before allowing them to sell shares in the United States. The long overdue move aims to protect U.S. investors from unknowingly investing in Chinese firms that engage in questionable accounting practices. China’s macroeconomic prospects are likely to further erode as the country faces its most serious COVID-19 outbreak since the beginning of the pandemic in late 2019. U.S.-China relations are also unlikely to improve any time soon, as Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman’s recent trip to Tianjin laid bare that Beijing expects Washington to make concessions, and not the other way around.

Previous Trend: Neutral

The Biden administration issued a National Security Memorandum in late July to bolster cybersecurity for critical infrastructure and industrial control systems. The memorandum is a positive first step toward implementing the systemically important critical infrastructure recommendation that Senator Angus King (I-ME) and Representative John Katko (R-NY) have championed in the Senate and House. This announcement, paired with the Biden administration’s ongoing talks with private-sector stakeholders, signals that protecting critical infrastructure from cyberattacks remains a top priority for the administration. To gauge the impact of the new National Security Memorandum, the United States will need to assess if Russian and Chinese cyber actors change their behavior in response to this signaling from the administration. The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency announced a new Joint Cyber Defense Collaborative (JCDC) bringing together three fundamental missions — planning, operations, and information fusion — in one center. The JCDC represents an evolution in the government’s drive to spur collaboration with the private sector, and its creation is also a crucial step in fulfilling the mandates in the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021 for the creation of a Joint Cyber Planning Office and the design of an Integrated Cybersecurity Center.

Previous Trend: Negative

Eyeing increasingly capable adversaries and an eroding military balance of power, Army Chief of Staff General James McConville said at an FDD event that the Army is at an “inflection point” as the service undertakes its largest and most important modernization effort in four decades. Despite this fact, the Biden administration requested $3.6 billion less for the Army for fiscal year (FY) 2022 compared to the FY 2021 enacted level. No wonder the Army’s unfunded requirements list includes so many vital programs. Under the administration’s proposal, the Army would receive 11 percent less funding for vital procurement and research, development, test, and evaluation programs. Canceling or delaying vital new weapon systems would leave America’s soldiers dangerously and increasingly ill-prepared to deter and defeat aggression from China or Russia. To be sure, the Navy and Air Force desperately need increased funding to address a daunting array of readiness, modernization, and force structure challenges. Addressing those challenges, however, would not require Washington to deprive soldiers of vital capabilities if Congress simply rejects the administration’s proposal and instead adheres to the broad outlines of the National Defense Authorization Act passed by the Senate Armed Services Committee on July 21 in a 23-3 bipartisan vote.

Previous Trend: Negative

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Secretary Blinken met with top Ukrainian officials last week in preparation for President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s August 30 visit. Russia’s Nord Stream 2 (NS2) pipeline, which Kyiv views as an economic and strategic threat, will be high on the agenda following last month’s U.S.-Germany agreement that paves the way for NS2’s completion. Kyiv panned the deal, as did other Eastern European countries, congressional Republicans, and even some Democrats. President Joe Biden will reportedly tap Amos Hochstein, a vocal NS2 opponent, to lead the implementation of the U.S.-Germany agreement. Biden likely hopes Hochstein’s reputation will help mollify the deal’s critics. On July 28, Biden held a previously unannounced meeting with Belarusian opposition leader Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who advocated stronger pressure against the regime of dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenka. The meeting’s brief duration (roughly 15 minutes) and informality (Biden allegedly “dropped by” while Tsikhanouskaya met with other White House officials) suggest the administration sought to avoid upsetting Moscow. Still, Tsikhanouskaya called the historic meeting “a powerful sign of solidarity” with the Belarusian people. Yesterday, to mark the one-year anniversary of Belarus’ August 2020 presidential election, whose rigging triggered mass protests against Lukashenka, the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom imposed fresh sanctions targeting the regime and its supporters.

Previous Trend: Negative

In his visit to Kuwait City, Secretary Blinken missed a valuable opportunity to build on the momentum of the Abraham Accords — peace treaties between Israel, on one hand, and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, on the other. The accords are one of the few major initiatives that enjoy bipartisan support in Washington, including from President Biden, who as a candidate praised the accords and promised to expand them. However, during his press conference with his Kuwaiti counterpart, Sheikh Ahmed Nasser, Blinken not only stayed silent on a possible bilateral peace agreement between Israel and Kuwait, but commended the Kuwaiti government for its support for a two-state solution. Arab governments understand such statements to be coded demands for Israel to accept the Arab League’s Peace Initiative, which rules out bilateral accords prior to the establishment of a Palestinian state. When journalists asked the Kuwaiti foreign minister whether Kuwait will join the Abraham Accords, Nasser said that Kuwait will not do so, especially in light of the “Israeli escalation of violence on Gaza.” Blinken did not volunteer to correct his host regarding who escalated violence against whom, leading to the war in Gaza in May.

Previous Trend: Neutral

The Biden administration scored several significant wins as it aims to strengthen diplomatic and defense ties with countries throughout the region. In a blow to Beijing, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte announced plans to officially restore the Visiting Forces Agreement, which makes it easier for American troops to operate on the archipelago. While Duterte has long courted Beijing, the deal signals his concerns regarding China’s maritime provocations in Philippine-claimed waters. In Samoa, the country’s new prime minister pledged to cancel a $100 million Chinese-backed port development project, calling it excessive for the small Pacific island, which is already heavily indebted to China. In a move sure to further stoke Beijing’s ire, the Biden administration also approved its first arms sales to Taipei. The $750 million deal will see Taiwan receive 40 M109 self-propelled howitzers and other related equipment. Missing from Washington’s robust regional engagement is President Biden himself. Since assuming office more than six months ago, Biden has yet to call any Southeast Asian leaders, instead outsourcing engagement to lower-level administration officials. This lack of attention is surely not going unnoticed even as countries in the region reassess their relationships with China.

Previous Trend: Negative

The Biden administration opted to remain silent and allow the United Nations to begin termination proceedings against Emma Reilly — a whistleblower who revealed that the UN Human Rights Council regularly turns over to Beijing the identities of Chinese nationals who report human rights violations to the council. Earlier this year, Reilly joined FDD’s Foreign Podicy to discuss her findings and the ongoing retaliation against her by the UN Secretariat. With Secretary Blinken announcing that the United States would participate in the council’s meetings and seek a seat on the council at its next election, Reilly had hoped the United States would intervene to defend whistleblower rights and, more importantly, hold the council accountable for its complicity in Chinese human rights abuses. In addition to the Biden administration’s enabling of a new council investigation into alleged Israeli war crimes, the failure to protect Reilly represents the second significant failure of the administration’s engagement policy. Meanwhile, as China continues to stymie efforts to investigate the origins of COVID-19, the Biden administration has not said whether it will support World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus in his apparent bid for re-election or back an alternative candidate capable of reforming the agency.

Previous Trend: Very Negative

Following an Iranian drone strike on an Israeli-operated oil tanker sailing near Oman, which resulted in the deaths of one British and one Romanian citizen, the White House reaffirmed President Biden’s commitment to rejoining the Iran nuclear deal. Once again, the administration responded to hostility and provocation (in this case, the killing of a citizen of America’s closest ally) by offering to lift U.S. sanctions and flood Iran’s economy with more than $100 billion. After Secretary Blinken told reporters he expected a “collective response” to the attack, Iranian forces attempted to hijack another tanker — but were reportedly thwarted by a fast-thinking crew that halted the ship until Western naval patrols could respond. While paying lip service to the aspirations of Iranian demonstrators facing an ongoing crackdown by the regime, the Biden administration has done little else to demonstrate its commitment to the Iranian people over the last two weeks. The administration, meanwhile, has not indicated whether it will pursue a resolution at the September International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors meeting condemning Tehran’s refusal to cooperate with an IAEA investigation into Iran’s undeclared nuclear activities and similar refusal to turn over nuclear surveillance tapes to inspectors.

Previous Trend: Neutral

On July 22, Brett McGurk, the top National Security Council official for the Middle East, expressed concern to senior Israeli defense official Zohar Palti regarding the NSO spyware scandal. The Israeli company’s technology was reportedly used to spy on journalists, human rights activists, and politicians. On July 30, the State Department approved the sale of up to 18 CH-53K heavy-lift cargo helicopters to Israel, worth an estimated $3.4 billion. The following day, Secretary Blinken and his Israeli counterpart, Yair Lapid, discussed the deadly strike on an Israeli-operated vessel in the northern Arabian Sea, attributed to Iran. On August 2, National Security Advisor Sullivan met with his incoming Israeli counterpart, Eyal Hulata. The two discussed strengthening the U.S.-Israel partnership, addressing the Iranian threat, normalizing Israel’s relations with Arab countries, and the importance of making progress in dealing with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Hulata and Sullivan also discussed Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s prospective visit to Washington; however, that trip reportedly is likely to be postponed. On August 3, Hulata and Shimrit Meir, Bennett’s foreign policy adviser, met with Deputy Secretary of State Sherman and discussed the same issues addressed at the Sullivan-Hulata meeting.

Previous Trend: Positive

The reestablishment of the “hotline” between the North and South at Panmunjom in the Demilitarized Zone created excitement among South Korean progressives who continue to believe that North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un seeks engagement with the South and will resume denuclearization negotiations. Days later, his sister Kim Yo Jong stated that ROK-U.S. combined training will “cloud future North-South relations,” while Kim Jong Un has called for increased military preparedness ahead of the training. The South Korean National Intelligence Service revealed that the dictator demands sanctions relief before he will negotiate. Although South Korea’s ruling party said combined training will continue, there is renewed pressure from liberal lawmakers to delay it. As usual, the Kim family regime is conducting political warfare to shape the information environment to gain political and economic concessions, undermine the ROK political system, and drive a wedge in the ROK-U.S. alliance. The combined training must be executed, or military readiness and deterrence will be severely weakened. It would be a grave error to provide sanctions relief simply in exchange for a promise to negotiate. Kim Jong Un’s political warfare is a significant test for the Biden administration, and the decision on training and sanctions will determine the way forward for the alliance.

Previous Trend: Neutral

Despite multiple rising crises in the Western Hemisphere, the Biden administration’s bandwidth is consumed by the southern border, which saw more than 210,000 migrant encounters in July 2021. There has yet to be any significant announcement regarding how the administration will combat this trend, which will continue to suck the oxygen away from other national security priorities until it is addressed. With regard to the ongoing protests in Cuba, the administration has merely re-announced sanction designations already made at the end of the Trump administration and has failed to address China’s continued role in controlling telecommunications on the island. The Biden administration also remains passive with regard to Iranian influence in the region. The secretary general of the Venezuelan-led ALBA bloc met with incoming Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to discuss further cooperation. Nevertheless, Venezuela is reportedly still set to engage in negotiations with the U.S. administration and has yet to face penalties for the recent arrest and detention of major opposition leaders. On the positive side of the ledger, the Biden administration is doing yeoman’s work on Nicaragua, following up its sanctions with a public diplomacy campaign and encouraging sanctions by the European Union.

Previous Trend: Very Negative

After Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel on August 6, State Department spokesman Ned Price condemned the attack and called on the Lebanese authorities to prevent future ones. However, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), for which the Biden administration has increased funding, assisted Hezbollah’s operation by returning the rocket launcher and four operatives to the group after they were stopped by Druze villagers while returning from the attack. A few days before the attack, the U.S. military attaché in Beirut lauded the LAF and announced “creative” new ways to support it. According to the attaché, the administration is looking into using presidential drawdown authority to send more aid not just for the LAF “but also their families.” Two days before Hezbollah’s rocket attack, President Biden had committed the United States to supporting any Lebanese government dedicated to economic reform and fighting corruption, even as the administration knows that Hezbollah will participate in a future government and maintain predominant influence over it. As a result of its growing investment in Hezbollah-controlled Lebanon, the Biden administration, a Western diplomat told Asharq al-Awsat, pressured Israel not to disrupt the status quo following Hezbollah’s rocket attack.

Previous Trend: Neutral

On July 28, Washington and Moscow held the initial round of the Strategic Stability Dialogue President Biden and President Vladimir Putin agreed to initiate during their Geneva summit. Both delegations expressed satisfaction with the first round, during which they discussed their respective priorities and threat perceptions as well as the prospects for future nuclear arms control. The two sides agreed to meet again in late September and are now discussing potential topics for expert working groups at that meeting. On August 5, State Department spokesman Ned Price warned Moscow that despite its restrictions preventing the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe from observing Russia’s Duma elections in September, the world “will be watching” for signs of fraud. After Moscow banned the U.S. mission in Russia from hiring local staff, Blinken formally announced that the mission would lay off almost all its local employees and contractors, crippling its operations. Nevertheless, the administration continues to resist Moscow’s proposals to cancel all U.S.-Russian diplomatic restrictions imposed since 2016. However, the Biden administration has reportedly decided against targeting the ill-gotten wealth of individuals close to Putin — an inconsistent approach for an administration that purports to view “countering corruption as a core United States national security interest.”

Previous Trend: Very Negative

The Taliban seized control of six provincial capitals in just four days: Aybak, Taloqan, Kunduz City, Sar-i-Pul City, Shibirghan, and Zaranj. Zaranj, the capital of Nimruz province, was the first provincial capital taken by the Taliban since they began their offensive on May 1. The Taliban have launched a string of attacks on other major cities, including Lashkar Gah, which is in danger of falling, as well as Herat City and Kandahar City. In Kabul, the Taliban launched a suicide assault against the acting defense minister’s home and assassinated the director of the Afghan government’s information and media center. Despite the Taliban’s clear implementation of a military strategy to re-establish their Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, the U.S. State Department still clings to the notion that there can be a negotiated settlement. In Syria, Hurras al-Din, an al-Qaeda group, claimed responsibility for an improvised explosive device that detonated on a bus carrying members of the Syrian Republican Guard. The U.S. government also designated a Turkey-based al-Qaeda facilitator. In addition, the U.S. military launched its first airstrike against al-Shabaab, al-Qaeda’s branch in Somalia, since January. The United Kingdom and Kenya signed an agreement that allows them to cooperate in the fight against al-Shabaab.

Previous Trend: Neutral

After six months without action, the Biden administration imposed its first sanctions on Syrian human rights violators, in keeping with the goals of the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act of 2019. The sanctions targeted eight prisons and five prison officials responsible for the systematic torture of the Bashar al-Assad regime’s political opponents. While meriting designation, these targets have little or no economic significance, so the sanctions are unlikely to exert the kind of pressure on the Syrian regime that the Caesar Act envisioned. It is not clear, however, whether President Biden wants to escalate pressure on the regime. The administration’s review of U.S. policy toward Syria has lasted for months without reaching a conclusion. A report in The Washington Post even indicated the Biden team is “cautiously optimistic that there is an opening for further U.S.-Russia negotiations regarding Syria.” If so, the White House should bear in mind how Moscow exploited similar hopes to negotiate deals with both the Obama and Trump administrations that only benefited Damascus in the end. In this regard, the current siege of Daraa in southern Syria bears close watching, since there are signs that Russia will once again support a scorched earth campaign against the regime’s opponents.

Previous Trend: Neutral

The Biden administration is emerging from its silence regarding Ankara’s transgressions at home and abroad, a concession that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had extracted with his June proposal for Turkish troops to guard and run Kabul’s airport following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. On July 28, the U.S. Treasury Department designated Ahrar al-Sharqiya, an Ankara-backed Syrian militant group implicated in war crimes. This is Washington’s first targeting of a Turkish proxy since the war in Syria began. On the same day, Treasury also imposed sanctions on Hasan al-Shaban, a “Turkey-based al-Qa’ida financial facilitator.” The State Department also sent Erdogan a message by commemorating the 50th anniversary of Ankara’s shuttering of a prominent Orthodox Christian seminary. Secretary Blinken should follow up by acting on the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom’s longtime recommendation to slap Turkey with a “Special Watch List” designation for its “systematic, ongoing, and egregious” violations. On July 28, an Austrian court extended the detention of Sezgin Baran Korkmaz, an Erdogan-linked Turkish businessman whom a federal grand jury indicted for his alleged role in money laundering schemes that attempted to defraud the U.S. Treasury of over $1 billion. The Biden administration should intensify its efforts to extradite Korkmaz.