Japanese National Elections Show Clear Limits of Chinese Coercion Towards Tokyo

Despite the swirling snow, Japanese voters braved the cold to send a clear message to China.

On February 8, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won a landslide victory in Japan’s national legislative elections, cementing Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s rule for the foreseeable future as she prepares to meet President Donald Trump in Washington in March.

Along with bolstering the LDP’s efforts to push Japan’s national security policy away from its official pacifism, the results showcase the failure of Beijing’s months-long coercion campaign against Tokyo.

Sanae Takaichi Wins Clear Mandate To Strengthen Japanese Defense Policy

The snap election, the shortest campaign period in post-war Japanese history, allowed the LDP to win a two-thirds majority in the House of Representatives, the lower house of the National Diet, placing the party in a position to override vetoes from the opposition-controlled House of Councillors, the upper house. The LDP’s strength may also allow Takaichi to initiate the process of amending Japan’s constitution, possibly by removing the country’s commitment to pacificism through a public referendum.

Takaichi’s victory may also bolster the LDP’s efforts to reform Japan’s defense policy, including raising defense spending and reforming the country’s National Security Strategy. Along with seeking to spend 2 percent of GDP on defense, the party has proposed easing restrictions on exporting weapons, establishing a national intelligence agency, and instituting a new anti-espionage law. Takaichi has also previously indicated a willingness to shift Japan’s long-standing policy of not producing, possessing, or sharing nuclear weapons, having identified it as a barrier to upholding U.S. extended deterrence.

Beijing Faces Limits of Coercive Policy Towards Tokyo

The election results also signal the failure of China’s months-long pressure campaign against Japan over Tokyo’s stance towards Taiwan. Following Takaichi’s comments in November that Japan may consider a Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan a “survival-threatening situation” that may prompt the deployment of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces, Beijing retaliated with economic boycotts, coast guard patrols, and harsh rhetoric, including nuclear threats. China further escalated its economic coercion campaign in January, banning the sale of “dual-use goods” while threatening to cut off exports of critical minerals used in defense production.

China has paired these measures with provocative military exercises that have increasingly targeted Japan. In its most recent exercise around Taiwan, the Chinese military pledged to uphold “all-dimensional deterrence outside the island chain” — a clear signal of its intent to prevent Japanese, American, or allied forces from reaching the island during a crisis. This pressure campaign has also drawn in Moscow, with both Chinese and Russian naval forces conducting joint anti-submarine warfare exercises for the first time in September 2025 in the Sea of Japan.

U.S. and Japan Should Strengthen Security Ties

The United States should use the LDP’s victory as an opening to accelerate closer defense cooperation and strengthen regional deterrence against China. The Department of Defense should push for the Japanese Self-Defense Forces to move forward on developing a joint headquarters in Japan while strengthening efforts to coproduce missiles and develop repair stations for ships and aircraft.

Washington should also work closer with Tokyo to support Taiwan against Chinese coercion. These efforts should include building out a regional stockpile of critical resources, such as liquified natural gas to supply the island in the event of a crisis, and establishing pre-planned maritime corridors for commercial shipping seeking to transit the region during a Chinese blockade or embargo.

Jack Burnham is a senior research analyst in the China Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). For more analysis from Jack and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Jack on X @JackBurnham802. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.