China and Japan Clash Over Taiwan

China is increasingly isolating Taiwan to force the island’s capitulation. On November 13, the Chinese Foreign Ministry strongly condemned remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Japan’s possible military response to a Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan. Beijing has deployed its Coast Guard to disputed maritime regions and is imposing several economic penalties on Japan.

China’s moves, which follow on the heels of expanded military exercises around both Taiwan and Japan, highlight the fusion of China’s growing aggression toward Taipei and its threat to U.S. regional allies and partners.

Japanese Prime Minister’s Comments Align with Tokyo’s Previous Stance towards Taiwan

On November 7, Takaichi told Japan’s parliament, the Diet, that a Chinese attempt to invade or blockade Taiwan may be considered a “survival-threatening situation,” allowing for Tokyo to legally deploy the Japanese Self-Defense Forces under the country’s pacifist constitution. While notable for its candor, Takaichi’s remarks echo those of previous Japanese politicians, with former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe having noted in a November 2021 address that “a Taiwan emergency is a Japanese emergency, and therefore an emergency for the Japan-U.S. alliance.”

Beijing immediately launched a string of diplomatic protests while raising tensions over long-standing territorial disputes with Tokyo. In a since-deleted post, a Chinese diplomat stationed in Japan called for Takaichi to be beheaded, while the Chinese military’s official mouthpiece claimed that Japan was reviving its history of militarism and that Japan would suffer an “unbearable price.” Shortly following the remarks, the Chinese Coast Guard began a snap patrol surrounding the Senkaku Islands, a disputed feature between the two countries, while reportedly launching a drone near Japan’s Yonaguni Island, its closest territory to Taiwan.

China’s Exercises Around Taiwan Have Increasingly Targeted Japan

China’s exercises around Taiwan have increasingly been coupled with expanded military activity in the waters surrounding Japan, raising tensions across the East China Sea. During its December exercises — the largest in three decades — Chinese naval and coast guard forces deployed as many as 90 vessels from the South China Sea to the Ryukyu Islands, practicing blockading foreign ships and interrupting regional maritime traffic. Over the past several months, China has also engaged in exercises involving two aircraft carriers in the waters around Japan and deployed its forces alongside Russia’s Pacific Fleet to conduct anti-submarine exercises in the Sea of Japan.

These exercises, along with Beijing’s growing capacity to affect a shadow quarantine of Taiwan using a combination of Coast Guard forces and cyber-enabled economic warfare, highlight Tokyo’s growing vulnerability in any Taiwan-related military crisis. As a major importer of liquified natural gas and highly reliant on global trade, Japan would be vulnerable to major shocks within the shipping insurance or energy markets — both of which would likely compound concerns over the potential for China to expand its pressure campaign to Tokyo.

Washington Must Bolster Regional Deterrence With Taipei and Tokyo 

The verbal sparring between Tokyo and Beijing reflects both Japan’s belated recognition that any Taiwan-related contingency poses a direct threat to its national security and China’s pattern of regional bullying to isolate Taiwan diplomatically to engineer its eventual subjugation.

In response, the United States should work to build out a range of economic and military deterrence measures with both Tokyo and Taipei. Following President Donald Trump’s successful trip to Asia and the Pacific region, the Department of Defense should accelerate its efforts to establish a joint U.S.-Japan headquarters in theatre, a priority previously articulated by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. The United States should also work with Japan to secure Taiwan from a potential Chinese quarantine, including establishing a regional energy reserve and coordinating maritime corridors that would ease any potential allied convoy or escort operation of commercial shipping bound for Taiwan.

 Jack Burnham is a research analyst in the China Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where Duncan Lazarow is an intern. For more analysis from Jack and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Jack on X @JackBurnham802. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.