‘Increasing Fortitude’: U.S. Intelligence Report Highlights Threats From Axis of Aggressors

Latest Developments

• Axis of Aggressors Working Together Against U.S. Interests: Together and separately, Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea “are challenging U.S. interests in the world by attacking or threatening others in their regions,” according to the Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. “Growing cooperation between and among these adversaries is increasing their fortitude against the United States.” In accompanying testimony, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard observed that since 2022, “China, Russia, Iran and North Korea have grown closer together,” adding that “removing the accelerant of the war in Ukraine is unlikely to revert these bilateral relationships to a pre-war … baseline.”
• Tehran Uses Military Capabilities to Bolster Alliances: According to the report, Iran will leverage its “robust missile capability and expanded nuclear program” to aid its diplomatic efforts with U.S. rivals “to bolster its regional influence and ensure regime survival.” Yet its conclusion that “Iran is not building a nuclear weapon” is noteworthy in light of the 2024 assessment from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) that Tehran had “undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so.”
• China Remains Most Capable Threat: The report observed that “China stands out as the actor most capable of threatening U.S. interests globally, though it is also more cautious than Russia, Iran, and North Korea about risking its economic and diplomatic image in the world by being too aggressive and disruptive.” The report noted that the Chinese military has the capability to conduct strikes on the U.S. homeland in the Western Pacific and may be developing conventional intercontinental missiles that could strike the continental United States. China is also the greatest threat to the United States in cyberspace, able to target government, private sector, and critical infrastructure.

FDD Expert Response

“The United States Intelligence Community has sounded the alarm that the Axis of Aggressors is cooperating more closely together, increasing their military capabilities in their respective spheres of ongoing or prospective aggression. Yet, many of America’s defense strategies, policies, and budgets don’t reflect this reality and seem better suited to 1991 rather than 2025. If Washington does not act quickly to increase the U.S. defense budget and strengthen our defense-industrial base production capacity, stockpiles, military readiness, and cooperation with allies, we will confront costly new aggression that could have been deterred and avoided.” — Bradley Bowman, Senior Director of FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power

“ODNI should not be so categorical in its finding that ‘Iran is not building nuclear weapons.’ Iranian experts are reportedly undertaking key activities that would shorten the regime’s timeline to nuclear weapons, should Iran decide to build them. Specifically, telegraphing U.S. knowledge of such work would send a much-needed signal that Iran needs to shut it down. The United States is closely watching and has threatened to act militarily to stop Tehran from developing nuclear weapons.” — Andrea Stricker, Research Fellow and Deputy Director of FDD’s Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program

“China remains the pacing threat — not just because of its military might but also because it is methodically building coercive power across every domain. Its growing alignment with fellow aggressors risks emboldening Beijing’s global posture while making it harder to isolate future crises.” — Craig Singleton, China Program Senior Director and Senior Fellow

FDD Background and Analysis

“Iran’s Nuclear Disarmament,” by Orde Kittrie, Andrea Stricker, and Behnam Ben Taleblu

“What Steps Must Iran Take to Construct Nuclear Weapons,” by Andrea Stricker and FDD’s Visual Intelligence Team

“U.S. Intelligence Assessment Drops Claim That Iran ‘Not Currently Undertaking’ Nuclear Weapons Development,” FDD Flash Brief

“To Confront China, President Trump Should Target its State-Owned Enterprises,” by Isaac A. Harris, RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery, and Patrick Jenevein