August 10, 2024 | Flash Brief
U.S. Intelligence Assessment Drops Claim That Iran ‘Not Currently Undertaking’ Nuclear Weapons Development
August 10, 2024 | Flash Brief
U.S. Intelligence Assessment Drops Claim That Iran ‘Not Currently Undertaking’ Nuclear Weapons Development
Latest Developments
The U.S. intelligence community no longer assesses that Iran has paused work on the development of nuclear weapons, according to the latest Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) report to Congress. The report removed a key finding ODNI has included annually since 2019, which states: “Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device.” An August 9 Wall Street Journal story illuminated the ODNI development, explaining: “U.S. intelligence agencies are re-examining their criteria for assessing Iran’s nuclear activities in light of what it is learning about the program.”
The ODNI report concludes that Tehran has “undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so,” while underscoring “a notable increase this year in Iranian [officials’] public statements about nuclear weapons, suggesting the topic is becoming less taboo.”
Expert Analysis
“The new intelligence assessment ideally represents a U.S. intelligence community that is taking a more holistic look at how all Iranian nuclear activities support the progress of a threshold nuclear weapons program. Meanwhile, U.S. policymakers are wasting precious time to detect and stop a possible Iranian breakout that is backed by a clandestine effort to progress the weaponization aspects of the regime’s nuclear capabilities.” — Andrea Stricker, FDD Research Fellow and Deputy Director of FDD’s Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program
“Tehran’s nuclear ambitions have been hiding in plain sight all along. As a reminder, the Islamic Republic resurrected the late Shah’s nuclear program that was specifically designed to pursue nuclear weapons. Enter now the latest ODNI finding, which can assist America and its partners in reconnecting the dots over the costs, aims, intentions, capabilities, and direction of Iran’s atomic infrastructure to date and serve as a baseline for a better counterproliferation policy toward Iran.” — Behnam Ben Taleblu, FDD Senior Fellow
New Weaponization Intelligence
Axios reported in June that the United States and Israel collected intelligence indicating that Iranian scientists at civilian research institutes were carrying out nuclear “weaponization” work — the process of fabricating an atomic device that integrates weapons-grade fuel with specialized components, explosives, and a triggering mechanism. The work reportedly involved limited computer modeling and metallurgy experiments that could hasten Iran’s production of nuclear weapons. The August 9 Wall Street Journal story quoted a U.S. official who said this research “could shrink the knowledge gap Tehran faces in mastering the ability to build a weapon.” However, an ODNI spokesperson also told the Journal, “Iran doesn’t have an active military nuclear program,” while another stated that the “U.S. intelligence community is well-positioned to detect active work by Iran to build a nuclear weapon.”
According to Axios, in July, Washington utilized diplomatic back channels to warn Iran about the weaponization work and demand clarifications and was satisfied by those communications.
IAEA Role Remains Vague
It remains unclear what role the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has played in investigating or requesting access to the alleged entities conducting weaponization work to verify it has ended, which is part of its mandate to ensure against nuclear weapons proliferation.
In recent years, the IAEA has been unable to assert that Tehran’s nuclear program is devoted to peaceful purposes. Iran remains in non-compliance with its IAEA safeguards agreement due to the regime’s failure to cooperate with an IAEA investigation into Iran’s nuclear weapons work, raising concern that Tehran could match an ongoing weaponization program with a rapid capability to produce several nuclear weapons’ worth of atomic fuel. Iran’s lack of cooperation with the IAEA led world powers to censure Tehran at a June 2024 IAEA Board of Governors meeting.
Related Analysis
“Washington Fails — Again — to Gauge Iran’s Nuclear Threat,” by Andrea Stricker and Behnam Ben Taleblu
“Washington Warns Iran Over Alleged Nuclear Weapons Work,” FDD Flash Brief
“U.S., Israel Investigate Iranian Nuclear Modeling,” FDD Flash Brief