Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Benjamin Netanyahu’s bid to survive as Israel’s long-serving prime minister is running up against a groundswell of support for a political newcomer: a former general who lost his son in the Gaza war. Gadi Eisenkot, the former top commander of the Israeli military, has seen his popularity surge of late, with polls showing his centrist Yashar party drawing roughly equal support to Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud. – Wall Street Journal

The Israeli government threatened on Sunday to disregard an order by Israel’s highest court, escalating a long-running clash between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and a judiciary whose authority he has vowed to weaken. – New York Times

An Israeli airstrike killed at least two Palestinians in Gaza City on Sunday, ​health officials said. Medics said the two people were ‌killed when an airstrike hit a group of people at the Omar Al-Mokhtar road in the heart of ​the city, north of the enclave. Several ​others were wounded, they added. – Reuters

Two sources in the Hamas terrorist group told the Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper on Sunday that the organization’s leadership is expected to announce the dissolution of the “committee for monitoring government activity,” the body that effectively serves as Hamas’s government in the Gaza Strip. – Jerusalem Post

The Knesset is set to dissolve on July 17, putting Israel on course for national elections likely to be held on October 27 — the latest date permitted by law. – Times of Israel

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pushed back in an interview with Fox News on Sunday against US Vice President JD Vance’s recent claim that US President Donald Trump is Israel’s only ally, insisting that Jerusalem still has “many friends” around the world, while still highlighting its unique relationship with Washington. – Times of Israel

Editorial:  Simply declaring that an inconvenient court order will not be recognized is not one of them. That approach may energize parts of its political base, and that could well be the main factor behind the decision with elections approaching, but it does little to strengthen public trust in Israel’s democratic institutions. And if Netanyahu hopes to persuade Israelis that he seeks a broad national coalition capable of healing the country’s divisions, Sunday’s decision sends precisely the opposite message. – Jerusalem Post

Rahm Emanuel writes: The IMEC would reduce Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz and slash logistical costs by up to 30%, according to India’s commerce minister. Finally, we should end the American taxpayer’s subsidy of Israel’s defense. While we should want the country to maintain its strategic advantages, Israel can buy our arms under the same terms and restrictions that apply to every other trusted American ally. After the security backsliding of the Trump years, Washington needs to establish new strategic foundations to preserve broader U.S. interests and reboot American credibility. We need a foreign-policy approach that rejuvenates our alliances and creates enduring and mutually beneficial ties around the world. – Wall Street Journal

Russia and Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin made a rare frontline appearance late Friday, donning green military fatigues, to claim breakthroughs in Russia’s war effort and counter what he called Ukraine’s “information and propaganda operation on illusory battlefield results.” – Washington Post

Explosions rocked the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv early on Monday, the eve of a NATO summit, as Russia mounted its second major attack on the city in days. – New York Times

Celebrating his seizure of Crimea in 2014, President Vladimir V. Putin later called the peninsula an “unsinkable aircraft carrier,” hailing Russia’s return there as a symbol of revanchist ambition. Now the Ukrainian military is hammering Crimea with swarming drone attacks, seeking to transform it from a Russian-occupied fortress into a nightmare for the Kremlin to manage. – New York Times

Ukrainian drone attacks on Monday damaged the Baltic Sea ports of Vysotsk and Ust-Luga, a major oil exporting outlet, and caused a power blackout ​in the Crimean city of Sevastopol, home to Russia’s Black Sea ​Fleet, authorities said. – Reuters

Ukraine still controls the strategically important eastern ​city of Kostiantynivka, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and the General Staff said on Saturday, rejecting Russian claims that it ‌has been captured. – Reuters

One person was killed in a Ukrainian attack on Russian-occupied Crimea, Moscow-installed officials said in the early hours of Sunday, as Russian and Ukrainian leaders held separate calls with U.S. President Donald Trump on ending the war, now in its fifth year. – Associated Press

A Ukrainian drone attack struck an oil terminal in St. Petersburg on Saturday, Russian officials said, as Kyiv presses on with bombardment of Russia’s oil infrastructure. Almost daily long-range attacks on Russian oil facilities have created a fuel crisis and heaped political pressure on the Kremlin as its all-out invasion of Ukraine stretches into its fifth year. – Associated Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with Donald Trump on a July 4 call lasting nearly 90 minutes in which the US leader again offered to help end the Ukraine war, according to Russia’s foreign ministry. – CNN

David Satter writes: The authors of the Declaration of Independence understood that only a government that acknowledges a source of legitimacy over and above politics can protect the individual from the state. If men are “endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights,” no collective entity has a right to total domination. Russia can benefit from defeat in war. The loss of the Crimean War led to the emancipation of serfs. Defeat in the Russo-Japanese War led to Russia’s first constitution. Losing the Cold War led to the collapse of communism. Defeat in Ukraine could create the necessary conditions for a new beginning, but only if Russia adopts the doctrine of inherent worth and freedom embodied in the Declaration of Independence. – Wall Street Journal

French Hill writes: NATO allies should agree in Ankara to impose sanctions on the support apparatus that facilitates Russia’s energy trade, from financial institutions in China and India to Middle Eastern trading houses. These so-called secondary sanctions would sever those institutions from access to the dollar and euro. The choice would then become stark for their home countries: They can do business with the West or with Russia, but not both. – New York Times

Syria

French President Emmanuel Macron ​will visit ‌Syria to discuss ways to ​strengthen bilateral ​relations and issues of ⁠mutual interest, ​Syria’s presidential ​media directorate said on Sunday. – Reuters

A bomb blast at a cafe in central Damascus on Thursday killed nine people and wounded 20 others, Syria’s interior ministry ​said. There was no immediate claim of responsibility. – Reuters

Syria’s foreign minister said during a visit to Beirut ‌on Thursday that Damascus was open to meeting the Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah “if interests require it”, Lebanon’s state news agency reported. – Reuters

Turkey

President Trump doesn’t do much to hide his admiration for Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan. During a recent Oval Office meeting with NATO’s secretary-general he said he might not have made plans to attend the security group’s annual summit next week if it weren’t for the fact it’s being held in Turkey. “Erdogan is a strong man. Everything I ever asked him for, he’s done,” Trump said. – Wall Street Journal

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on ​Saturday that Middle East peace efforts could ‌not succeed without regional backing and that Israel must not be allowed to “dynamite” the U.S.-Iran peace deal. – Reuters

Turkish authorities detained more than 100 people taking part in an anti-NATO protest march organised by the Communist Party ​of Turkey (TKP) on Sunday, ahead of an alliance summit in Ankara next week, ‌the party said in a statement. – Reuters

David M. Weinberg writes: The Turkish purpose is not at all innocuous. It is to weaken Israel’s hold in the holy city, and to bolster Erdogan’s claim to leadership of the Muslim world on a path to a global Islamic sultanate. And at home, Erdogan has jailed more journalists, judges, generals, and academics than any other country in the world, including China. He is building 40,000 new jail cells to handle the overload and creating an authoritarian system to suit his imperial purposes. Erdogan needs to be cut down to size, and his madly ambitious and ferocious foreign and defense policies need to be put in a box. – Jerusalem Post

Middle East & North Africa

Yemen’s Houthis said on ​Friday its forces confronted Saudi “warplanes” that they said attempted ‌to prevent an Iranian civilian aircraft from landing at Sanaa International Airport, according to a statement by the group’s military spokesperson ​Yahya Sarea. – Reuters

Egypt expects to receive €1.5 billion ($1.72 billion) from the European ​Union in the coming days, ‌the first of two remaining tranches of a €5 billion macro-financial assistance package, Foreign ​Minister Badr Abdelatty said ​on Saturday. – Reuters

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun defended the framework agreement with Israel during a meeting with several journalists, saying that those opposing the move must offer an alternative that can bring Lebanon out of war, Al-Jadeed reported on Sunday. – Jerusalem Post

Egypt’s President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi on Saturday inaugurated the country’s new Strategic Command Headquarters, dubbed “The Octagon” due to its arrangement of eight interconnected octagonal buildings. – Times of Israel

China

China released from jail a prominent Christian pastor following pressure from the U.S., a surprise gesture of goodwill after President Trump’s visit to Beijing in May. Pastor Ezra Jin, who led one of China’s most influential underground churches before his arrest in October, landed in Los Angeles on Friday, a day ahead of the celebration of America’s 250th birthday, according to his family. – Wall Street Journal

China is opening a new front in its pressure campaign against Taiwan, sending ships to its east to drive home a political point: Beijing claims not only the island itself but also the seas around it. The China Coast Guard announced on Saturday that its ships would conduct “law-enforcement patrols” in the Western Pacific waters east of Taiwan, a self-ruled island of 23 million people that Beijing claims as its territory. – New York Times

Since resuscitating relations with China from a low point a few years ago, the Australian government has relied on an oft-repeated mantra to “cooperate where we can, disagree where we must.” – New York Times

With robots, publicity events and official speeches, China is mounting a propaganda effort to promote and defend a new “ethnic unity” law that critics say will further undermine the rights of Tibetans, Uyghurs and other minorities in the country. – New York Times

As China’s leader, Xi Jinping, forges toward a fourth term in power, he confronts a dilemma common to aging autocrats: testing and recruiting a rising generation of loyal officials while ensuring his own dominance.  – New York Times

China’s ‌military test-fired a missile from a nuclear submarine into the Pacific on Monday, state media reported, drawing criticism and concerns from Japan, Australia and New Zealand. – Reuters

The Chinese and Russian navies ‌will hold joint exercises in the waters and airspace off the Chinese city ​of Qingdao next week, ​China’s defence ministry and Russian state ⁠media said on Sunday. – Reuters

Asia

The impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, which begins on Monday, is set to frame the Philippines 2028 presidential race and deepen a schism between two ​storied political dynasties that has plunged the Senate into turmoil. – Reuters

A Malaysian parliamentary committee will hold a hearing on July 16 to discuss a $96 million rare earths supply ​deal signed between Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths and the ‌U.S. Department of Defense earlier this year, a senior lawmaker said on Monday. – Reuters

Taiwan is tracking an “upward trend” in Chinese naval movements during the peak military exercise season, including joint drills with Russia, and will be analysing ​any new tactics, a senior Taiwanese security official said on ‌Monday. – Reuters

Australia and Fiji signed a ​major defence alliance on Monday, committing each country to come to the other’s aid if ‌either is attacked, as China seeks to expand its influence in the region. – Reuters

Taiwan’s military has resumed “anti-communist” patriotic classes for its graduates after a quarter-century gap, the defence ministry said on Sunday, citing a rising threat from ​China as a senior official reported another rise in Chinese naval ‌activity. – Reuters

A Philippine senator was arrested Monday and charged under the country’s anti-corruption statutes, becoming the latest member of the upper legislative chamber to be arrested in more than a month over suspicion of large-scale graft. – Associated Press

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Friday condemned senators who blocked changes to a world-first social media ban for children, saying tech giants would use the delay to destroy incriminating documents that could be used as evidence against them. – Associated Press

Africa

As the United States celebrates 250 years of independence with fireworks, parades and pool parties, July 4 in Rwanda is a much more somber affair. On Saturday, the small Central African nation will commemorate Liberation Day, the moment 32 years ago that capped 100 days of terror. – New York Times

The ​Democratic Republic ‌of ​Congo ​said late ⁠on ​Sunday ​that confirmed ​Ebola ​cases in the ‌country ⁠had reached ​1,561, ​including ⁠506 ​deaths. – Reuters

West Africa’s ​al Qaeda ‌affiliate, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal ​Muslimin (JNIM), on ​Saturday claimed responsibility ⁠for ​a series of ​attacks on military positions in ​Mali ​and said it had ‌seized ⁠control of at least three ​of ​them. – Reuters

The United Nations human rights chief on Friday sounded a “red alert” about possible atrocity crimes in and near a strategic city in central Sudan, calling on world leaders to do more to help stop the bloodshed in the country’s ongoing war between the army and paramilitary forces. – Associated Press

North America

Cuba is on the brink of economic collapse under a U.S. blockade and sanctions. Civil unrest is growing as living standards plummet. And the Communist government has no allies to save the day. A big reason for its continued survival: the effective surveillance of all residents—including eavesdropping on calls—and its iron-fisted control of every aspect of society, from sports centers to concert halls. – Wall Street Journal

Mexican authorities said on Friday that remains found at a site in the eastern state of ​Veracruz belonged to journalist Roxana Guzman, whose killing ‌has again shined a harsh light on press freedom in Mexico, one of the world’s deadliest countries for journalists. – Reuters

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will announce on Monday ​the preferred bidder in a contract ‌to build 12 submarines for Canada’s navy, the Globe and Mail reported on ​Sunday. – Reuters

Cybersecurity

A year ago, the message from many business leaders was that AI was going to wipe out jobs. For the past month or so, tech CEOs have been striking a more optimistic tone. In late May, OpenAI Chief Executive Sam Altman—who has long predicted that AI will lead to seismic shifts in the workforce—said during a conference, “We’ve been roughly right on technological predictions and pretty wrong on the social and economic implications.” – Wall Street Journal

EU lawmakers voiced outrage Friday over a report that a former Greek MEP’s phone was hacked using the Israeli-created Pegasus spyware — while he was serving on a parliamentary inquiry into the surveillance tool. – Times of Israel

The United ​Nations secretary general on Monday warned that ‌artificial intelligence is developing faster than anyone can keep up, urging the need for globally harmonised rules to ​reduce potential risks – especially to children. – Reuters

Sarah Kreps writes: What is required now is not another executive order or rhetorical commitment to technological leadership but a governance model that treats local legitimacy as a prerequisite rather than an obstacle. Without it, the United States risks ceding a consequential advantage to more centralized systems. China’s ability to plan and execute AI infrastructure at national scale may prove decisive precisely because it reduces uncertainty and delay. In a competition increasingly defined by computing power, energy, and physical capacity, the ability to build may matter as much as the ability to invent. – Foreign Affairs