‘Maximum Pressure 2.0’: Washington Seeks to Restore Deterrence Against Tehran

The Tehran regime is already bristling at the prospect of a much tougher U.S. policy toward the Islamic Republic of Iran. Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi warned on November 12 that if the Trump administration pursued “Maximum Pressure 2.0,” the only result for the United States would be “Maximum Defeat 2.0.”

While Aragchi insisted that President-elect Donald Trump’s original pressure policy was a failure, it drove Iran into a multi-year recession, sent inflation soaring, consumed Tehran’s hard currency reserves, and forced the regime to make unpopular budget cuts. Mass protests across Iran led to the violent suppression of dissent. Yet the regime held out, correctly anticipating that President Joe Biden would prevail in the 2020 election and then ease pressure on Tehran in hopes of reviving the 2015 nuclear deal.

Tehran’s assassination plots against Trump solidify his stance against the regime

On November 8, the Department of Justice (DOJ) filed charges against an agent of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) whom it accused of plotting to assassinate Trump during his campaign. Previously, DOJ charged a Pakistani national who allegedly conspired to kill Trump at Tehran’s behest. The leaders of the Islamic Republic have been plotting to kill Trump and other senior U.S. officials to avenge the death of former IRGC Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani in a 2020 U.S. drone strike. At a campaign rally in September, Trump warned Tehran that if harmed him, “we are going to blow your largest cities and the country itself to smithereens.”

Maximum Pressure 2.0 likely to target Iranian oil exports

Trump’s original maximum pressure strategy reduced Iran’s oil exports from 2.9 million barrels per day in 2018 to 775,000 when he left office. Trump’s policies also led to a decline in non-oil exports, which dropped 17.3 percent in 2019 and 12.8 percent in 2020. Veterans of the first Trump administration forecast a return to its tough policies. Brian Hook, who led Iran policy for Trump and is leading the transition at the State Department, noted Trump’s pledge to “isolate Iran diplomatically and weaken them economically so they can’t fund all of the violence” perpetrated by Hamas, Hezbollah, and other proxies.

Iran’s oil exports surged under the Biden administration, largely due to the lenient enforcement of U.S. sanctions. In particular, shipments to China rose considerably. As a result, Iran’s oil revenue soared from $16 billion in 2020 to $53 billion in 2023, according to a U.S. government report. In August 2023, Iran’s exports to China peaked at an estimated 1.5 million barrels per day.

Not seeking regime change means not leveraging Tehran’s weakness

Hook told CNN, “President Trump has no interest in regime change.” Nevertheless, the regime’s unpopularity is evident, fueled by economic mismanagement, corruption, and human rights abuses, all of which have sparked wave after wave of nationwide protests. Protest chants in Iran have shifted from hopes of reform within the Islamic Republic in 2009 to stark anti-regime declarations since 2017, such as, “Reformist, hardliner, the game is over.”

The right strategy is maximum pressure coupled with maximum support for the Iranian people

A maximum support campaign for the Iranian people can leverage the country’s longstanding and deep domestic resistance to the regime, particularly during periods of nationwide civil unrest. Washington should provide access to secure, unrestricted internet by facilitating VPN services and collaborating with private enterprises such as Starlink. Moreover, the next administration should work with allies to share intelligence with protestors and carry out cyber operations that disrupt the regime’s surveillance and communication networks and impair the command systems of security forces. Forcing Tehran to confront dissent at home will make it that much harder for the regime to continue its campaigns of terror and aggression abroad.

Janatan Sayeh is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he focuses on Iranian domestic affairs and the Islamic Republic’s malign regional influence. For more analysis from Janatan and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Janatan on X @JanatanSayeh. Follow FDD on X @FDD and @FDD_Iran. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, non-partisan research institute focused on national security and foreign policy.