‘You are Going to See the Sanctions Go Back On’: Trump Expected to Restore Maximum Pressure Against Iran

Latest Developments

• Maximum Pressure to Make a Comeback: President-elect Donald Trump plans to increase sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran as part of a return to his previous administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign, former Trump administration officials told The Wall Street Journal. “I think you are going to see the sanctions go back on,” one official said, adding that “you are going to see much more, both diplomatically and financially.”

• Effects of Maximum Pressure: In April 2018 — the month before the Trump administration withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and embarked on a strategy of maximum pressure — Iranian oil exports stood at 2.9 million barrels a day. From May 2019 to January 2021, that figure dropped to an average of 775,000 barrels a day. Trump’s maximum pressure campaign also led to a decline in non-oil exports, such as petrochemicals, natural gas, and industrial metals. According to the World Bank, Iran’s overall exports declined in 2019 and 2020 by 17.3 and 12.8 percent, respectively.

• Iranian Assassination Plots Target Trump Officials: Tehran has hits out on Donald Trump and a group of his previous administration’s senior officials, including former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, former National Security Advisor John Bolton, and former Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook. A former Trump Pentagon official told The Wall Street Journal that if the president-elect is “going to be hawkish on any particular country, designated major adversaries, it’s Iran.”

FDD Expert Response

“Maximum pressure remains the best strategy to deny Tehran resources to fund malign activities and expand opportunities for Arab-Israeli peace in the Middle East. Combined with Israel’s recent military successes and President Trump’s demonstrated willingness to use force when absolutely necessary to defend U.S. interests, the president-elect would be wise to pick up where he left off.” — Richard Goldberg, Senior Advisor

“The next phase of maximum pressure must be more creative and aggressive on the economic front, coupled with a robust diplomatic campaign to isolate the regime, support for Israeli military operations, and a comprehensive package of maximum support for the Iranian people.” — Saeed Ghasseminejad, Senior Iran and Financial Economics Advisor

FDD Background and Analysis

“Biden Administration Admits Iran’s Oil Exports Have Grown Exponentially in Value and Volume,” by Saeed Ghasseminejad

“Wy the Biden Administration’s Iran Sanctions Waivers Are Futile,” by Janatan Sayeh, Behnam Ben Taleblu, and Saeed Ghasseminejad

“Biden’s State Department ignores Iranian death plots inside America,” by Jonathan Schanzer and Natalie Ecanow

“Iran Plots Assassination of Trump,” FDD Flash Brief