German support for Israel is fading

The rollercoaster of opprobrium against Israel moves with such speed these days that it’s hard to detect changes in tone, whether positive or negative. One of the yardsticks I use to gauge such changes are the statements issued by German officials, along with any notable swings in German public opinion.

I do this because of postwar Germany’s unparalleled relationship with the State of Israel. Prior to Adolf Hitler, the most loathed name among contemporary Jews was Bogdan Chmielnicki, the 17th-century Cossack leader whose forces massacred up to 100,000 Jews. Using industrial methods three centuries later, Hitler murdered 6,000,000—a scale that seemed almost unfathomable until Nazi Germany executed it. In the decades since Hitler’s defeat, democratic Germany has confronted his legacy with greater honesty and humility than any other society assessing its former masters as it emerges from totalitarian rule. Its commitment to Israel’s security is, as former Chancellor Angela Merkel emphasized in a 2008 speech to the Knesset, a staatsraison—a stance baked into democratic Germany’s ethos.

A few weeks ago, I wrote a column on Friedrich Merz, the victor in Germany’s election and now the country’s chancellor, highlighting his statement that Berlin’s relationship with Jerusalem is “unique—no ifs or buts.” I have no reason to accuse Merz of fundamentally abandoning that position, but his comments last week are troubling, nonetheless.

Expressing “dismay” at the “terrible suffering of the civilian population” in the Gaza Strip, Merz, on a visit to Finland, said he could discern no logic in Israel’s ongoing military campaign. One day earlier, he warned bluntly that “the Israeli government must not do anything that its best friends are no longer prepared to accept.”

His wording was far less venomous in its tone compared to French President Emmanuel Macron, who denounced Israel’s actions as “shameful,” or Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Union Commission, who lambasted them as “abhorrent.” It’s also worth noting that Israel’s ambassador in Berlin, veteran diplomat Ron Prosor, said Merz’s concerns should be listened to carefully “because he is a friend.”

Even in these trying times, we should be careful not to label those allies of Israel who believe that the Gaza campaign has run its course—not least because Iran and its nuclear ambitions remain the core threat—as members of the hostile camp.

The problem is that Merz has formed a coalition with the center-left Social Democrats, growing numbers of whom are now calling for a suspension of German military supplies to Israel, which account for about 30% of Israel’s weapons imports. His foreign minister, Johann Wadephul, who like Merz is a member of the ruling center-right Christian Democratic Union, has warned that Germany may be forced to take “further steps” if Israel continues to pursue its goal of destroying Hamas. “Our committed fight against antisemitism, and our full support for the right to exist and the security of the State of Israel, must not be instrumentalized for the conflict and the warfare currently being waged in the Gaza Strip,” he declared in a TV interview.

The basic dilemma here—the extent to which Germany should support Israel—was also addressed by Germany’s long-serving commissioner for combating antisemitism, Felix Klein, in an interview with the FAZ news outlet. Despite recognizing that the war was sparked when Hamas committed “the largest antisemitic massacre since the end of the Holocaust,” despite rejecting the proposal that the European Union should end its partnership agreement with Israel because doing so would put the Jewish state “on a par with states like Russia or Iran,” and despite acknowledging that “Israel has no choice but to respond harshly, even if it oversteps boundaries,” Klein didn’t urge German politicians to avoid an arms embargo or other punitive measures. That doesn’t mean such measures are imminent, but it does mean that they are no longer beyond the pale.

In tandem, public opinion in Germany has also been shifting against Israel. Polling in February and March revealed that less than half of the respondents agreed that Germany should continue its firm support of Israel. A further poll published last week by the Tagesspiegel news outlet showed that 51% of Germans oppose further arms supplies to Israel. Broken down by political affiliation, this was particularly pronounced on the left, with 83% of voters of the Left Party opposed, but it was also discernible on the increasingly powerful ultranationalist right, with 52% of AfD (Alternative for Germany) voters similarly opposed. Even among the ruling CDU, only a plurality (44%) but not a majority of its voters were in favor of maintaining the flow of arms.

Should Germany effectively impose an arms embargo on Israel, that would deal a devastating blow to its staatsraison. Thomas Paine famously dismissed the “summer soldiers” and “sunshine patriots” who wavered on the American struggle for independence during precisely “the times that try men’s souls.” Germany should avoid adopting a similar mindset; as Merz said, “no ifs or buts.”

That doesn’t mean that Berlin is obliged to shy away from disagreements with the Israeli government. In relationships that are built on a proven trust, the criticism of a friend like Germany should be taken far more seriously than the sniping of adversaries like Ireland and can even be useful, pushing us to consider what our priorities are and what our medium and long-term goals involve.

But in the case of Israel, that manifestly doesn’t include steps, like an arms embargo, which could dangerously compromise its security. It also means that any action Israel takes with regard to Iran—which, don’t forget, carries out terrorist attacks on German and European soil—should be assessed independently of any disagreements over Gaza.

Right now, Germany, the most powerful state in the European Union, is the most reliable ally Israel has within the bloc. France was sincere in its denunciation of the Hamas-led pogrom in southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, which started this war; however, as the fighting has dragged on, it has shown an unscrupulous willingness to round on Israel. As for Spain and Ireland, they might as well change their national flags to the Hamas emblem. Yet as valuable as Germany’s friendship is, German leaders should refrain from issuing public statements that pressure Israel to compromise its security for the sake of preserving this alliance.

Ben Cohen is a senior analyst with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD) and director of FDD’s rapid response outreach, specializing in global antisemitism, anti-Zionism and Middle East/European Union relations.