U.S. Must Apply Greater Pressure on Russia To Achieve Peace in Ukraine

Presidents Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy met at the World Economic Forum in Davos on January 22 shortly before U.S. officials flew to Moscow for another sit-down with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Some White House officials assert that Kyiv’s resistance to territorial concessions is the obstacle to a peace settlement. In truth, peace is unlikely until Russia softens its maximalist demands, which extend beyond eastern Ukraine.

Trump and Zelenskyy Meet in Davos

Zelenskyy had initially indicated he might skip Davos. Ukraine has been grappling with blackouts caused by relentless Russian strikes amid freezing winter weather. In addition, while Kyiv had hoped leaders would sign an $800 billion post-war economic “prosperity plan” for Ukraine at Davos, those plans were derailed amid the controversies over Greenland and Trump’s new Board of Peace.

Nevertheless, Zelenskyy took the opportunity to meet with Trump. Their meeting, which the American president described as “very good,” lasted roughly an hour. It came after Ukrainian officials met with U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Miami and Davos. Zelenskyy later said that in addition to discussing the peace talks, he secured “a new package of critically needed air defense.”

U.S. Envoys Arrive in Moscow

After huddling with Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev in Davos on January 20, Witkoff and Kushner flew to Moscow on January 22 for a late-night meeting with Putin. The Americans will then travel to the United Arab Emirates for “working groups,” Witkoff said. Zelenskyy confirmed that Ukrainian negotiators plan to hold “trilateral” talks “on the technical level” with U.S. and Russian officials in Abu Dhabi on January 23-24.

On December 28, during a phone call with Trump held just before the American president hosted Zelenskyy at his Florida home in Mar-a-Lago, Putin agreed to continue peace talks in “two specially established working groups” on security and economic matters. However, the Financial Times reported on January 22 that Moscow had not yet confirmed its willingness to participate in a trilateral meeting, possibly opting to have U.S. officials shuttle between the two sides instead.

Reportedly, Dmitriev and Russian military and intelligence officials will represent Moscow in Abu Dhabi. That delegation is unlikely to be authorized to engage in substantive negotiations on core issues. But it could convey Kremlin displeasure with the current peace plan negotiated by American, Ukrainian, and European officials, to which Moscow has demanded “radical changes.”

Russia, Not Ukraine, Should Be Focus of U.S. Pressure

As one of his conditions for a settlement, Putin is demanding that Kyiv surrender the Ukrainian-controlled part of the country’s eastern Donbas region. Washington has pushed Kyiv to bend to that demand, viewing Ukrainian territorial concessions as the path to peace. This approach is misguided on two counts.

First, any peace framework predicated on Ukrainian capitulation will be a dead end. Despite what Russian (and some American) officials say, Russia has not defeated Ukraine militarily and is unlikely to do so. Most Ukrainians regard surrendering land as tantamount to capitulation, and no Ukrainian leader will choose political suicide.

Second, Moscow has made clear its ambitions extend well beyond Donbas. In addition to ceding territory, Putin insists that Ukraine demilitarize and formally foreswear its NATO aspirations. Moscow also demands legal protections for Russian cultural influence in Ukraine.

Ultimately, Putin seeks to establish suzerainty over all of Ukraine and rewrite the European security order. That is what he means with his repeated exhortation that any settlement must redress the war’s so-called “root causes.” Mere days ago, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov declared that “any settlement proposal founded on the primary goal of preserving” what he derisively referred to as Ukraine’s “Nazi regime” is “completely unacceptable.”

Washington’s current approach perversely risks hardening Putin’s intransigence. Instead, the Trump administration should focus on pressuring Moscow to temper its maximalist demands. Washington should surge military support for Ukraine while increasing economic pressure on Russia, including by stringently enforcing and expanding U.S. sanctions on Russian oil exports.

John Hardie is deputy director of the Russia Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). For more analysis from the authors and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow John on X @JohnH105. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focused on national security and foreign policy.