Russia’s Maximalist Demands Remain Chief Obstacle to Peace

Russia intends to “toughen” its stance in negotiations to end its war in Ukraine, the Kremlin declared on December 30 after claiming — without evidence — that Kyiv had attacked one of President Vladimir Putin’s residences. Moscow’s accusation, which came on the heels of a meeting between presidents Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, is the latest sign that Putin remains unwilling to budge from his hardline demands. That will need to change if Trump is to achieve peace. 

Trump Speaks to Putin, Meets With Zelenskyy

Zelenskyy’s visit on December 28 followed weeks of shuttle diplomacy between American, Ukrainian, and European officials, launched in November after the emergence of a U.S. peace plan that favored Moscow. Those talks produced a 20-point plan, heavily revised from the original, along with accompanying documents on security guarantees and economic support for Ukraine. 

As with Zelenskyy’s White House visit in October, Trump spoke by phone with Putin shortly before receiving the Ukrainian president at Mar-a-Lago. A Kremlin readout indicated Putin sought to steer the talks back toward Russia-favorable “understandings” that Moscow claims to have previously reached with Trump and his team. During the call, Putin again demanded that Ukrainian troops withdraw from the eastern Donbas region. He also rejected Zelenskyy’s desire for a lengthy ceasefire to prepare for a referendum on a potential peace deal, the Kremlin said.

Trump and Zelenskyy both described their meeting as positive. The Ukrainian leader said Trump had endorsed plans regarding security guarantees and reconstruction. But they could not reach consensus on the Donbas issue, which Zelenskyy had hoped to resolve directly with Trump. The American president reiterated his view that Ukraine is “better off” ceding that land now, since Russia supposedly will take it within “months” anyhow. Trump also empathized with Putin’s opposition to a ceasefire.

Regarding next steps, the Kremlin said Putin had agreed to continue peace talks in “two specially established working groups” on security and economic matters, with details expected to be finalized in “early January.” Moscow hopes a more traditional diplomatic process can translate its “understandings” with Trump into a settlement. Zelenskyy said Kyiv would be willing to meet with the Russians after further coordination with Washington and Europe.

Putin Doubling Down on Hardline Stance

During a follow-up call with Trump on December 29, Putin accused Ukraine of launching 91 drones at the presidential residence in Novgorod Oblast the previous night. Trump later said he was “very angry” about the alleged attack, which Kyiv called a “complete fabrication.” Moscow said it will reconsider its negotiating position in response to Ukraine’s supposed “state terrorism,” without offering details.

The Kremlin likely aims to delegitimize Kyiv and justify Putin’s refusal to soften his maximalist demands. In December 19 remarks, the Russian leader reaffirmed that he is sticking to terms outlined in a June 2024 speech in which he insisted that Ukraine cede territory, forswear NATO membership, and accept “demilitarization and denazification.” Putin has paired these demands with swagger about Russia’s battlefield prospects. He vows Russia will seize the Donbas if Ukraine refuses to withdraw, seemingly convinced that his forces can eventually grind down Kyiv’s undermanned army. 

Peace Unlikely Until Putin’s Calculus Changes

Putin’s bravado notwithstanding, Ukraine continues to hold Russia to incremental gains while inflicting high casualties. Russia will be hard pressed to conquer the rest of the Donbas before running out of steam. Naturally, the Ukrainians are loathe to capitulate to terms Moscow cannot impose militarily. And as the Kremlin has made clear, its demands extend well beyond territory. 

For peace to be possible, Moscow will need to accept terms Kyiv can tolerate. Yet Putin probably will reject significant compromises so long as he remains overconfident in his military prospects and feels the war is sustainable. Rather than putting the onus for concessions on Ukraine, the Trump administration should focus on changing Putin’s calculus. Washington and its Western allies should maximize military assistance for Ukraine and build on recent sanctions targeting Russian oil exports. 

John Hardie is deputy director of the Russia Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where Keti Korkiya is a research analyst. For more analysis from the authors and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow John on X @JohnH105. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focused on national security and foreign policy.