Iraq votes in parliamentary elections amid US security talks and concerns about Iranian influence

Iraqis voted in a parliamentary election on November 11, the country’s sixth since the toppling of former President Saddam Hussein in 2003. The election, held as security forces were deployed around the country, came days after US officials held key discussions with their Iraqi counterparts in Baghdad about the two countries’ “bilateral security relationship.”

More than 30 million people were eligible to vote in the parliamentary election, but only 21 million registered to cast their votes at over 8,700 polling stations. Turnout, initially reported as low, was estimated to reach 55 percent. The field included 7,700 candidates for 329 seats in parliament, and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al Sudani heads a list and is expected to seek a second term, ABC News noted.

The election was contested by parties that primarily represent the major sectarian groups in Iraq: Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds. Muqtada al Sadr, the well-known Shiite cleric, boycotted the elections, and the Shiite parties were seen as divided on the eve of the vote.

The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) both performed well, with the KDP securing over a million votes. The Kurdish parties polled well not only in the autonomous enclave of the Kurdistan Regional Government but also in areas such as Kirkuk, Nineveh province, and Diyala province, where Iraq’s federal government is in charge.

Iraqi Prime Minister Sudani’s Reconstruction and Development party performed well in Baghdad, according to initial estimates from the UAE’s Al Ain News. There are 71 parliamentary seats in Baghdad, and Sudani’s list was on track to win 15 of them. The next largest winning result in Baghdad, 11 seats, went to Nouri al Maliki, the former prime minister of Iraq who is considered pro-Iranian.

Sunni Speaker of Parliament Mohammed al Halbousi’s Progress Party reportedly won nine seats. Other pro-Iranian groups received seats in Baghdad, including Qais Khazali’s Sadiqun bloc and the Badr Organization led by Hadi al Amiri. Khazali is a US-sanctioned terrorist and the leader of the Asaib Ahl al Haq militia, which, along with Badr, is part of the country’s Popular Mobilization Forces, a state-sanctioned military force comprised largely of pro-Iranian militias.

Al Ain News also noted that Kataib Hezbollah’s Rights bloc received one seat. Kataib Hezbollah, another US-sanctioned terrorist group that is part of the PMF, was accused of kidnapping Princeton researcher Elizabeth Tsurkov, who was released in September. On the eve of the elections, Kataib Hezbollah had called for members of the PMF, mostly Shiites, to participate in the polls.

“Iranian political and media circles are closely following the Iraqi scene, monitoring its developments and potential outcomes,” Iraq’s Shafaq News reported. Commentators interviewed by the outlet were divided on whether Iran viewed the election solely through a sectarian lens, supporting only Shiite parties, or with an eye toward the country’s stability and Iran’s influence aims in Iraq. “Tehran is not afraid of the results of the Iraqi elections, but it is concerned about the interventions of the United States, Turkey and some Arab countries in its course and their attempts to change the rules of the political game in the region,” Iranian affairs expert Mehdi Azizi told Shafaq News. Azizi has previously been quoted by Iranian pro-government media, indicating that his views likely reflect a pro-Tehran slant.

Several US officials visited Iraq on the eve of the elections. Mike DiMino, the deputy assistant secretary of war for the Middle East and Central Asia, wrote that he held talks in Baghdad. The talks were aimed at “inform[ing] future negotiations between the United States and Iraq as we seek to normalize our bilateral security relationship following the planned transition of Operation Inherent Resolve.” Inherent Resolve is the US-led anti-Islamic State coalition.

Joe Kent, the director of the US National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC), also participated in the meetings alongside William Ruger, deputy director of national intelligence for mission integration (DDNI/MI), Chargé d’Affaires Joshua Harris, and Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary for Iran and Iraq Andrew Donica.

The US Embassy in Baghdad noted that senior US officials and their Iraqi counterparts “held technical consultations” on November 6 regarding the “future bilateral security relationship between our two countries.” The goal is a new phase in US-Iraq security cooperation “aimed at long-term security and counterterrorism cooperation that strengthens and supports the capabilities and readiness of the Iraqi federal security forces, including the Peshmerga forces, and promotes the shared interests of safeguarding Iraq’s sovereignty, defeating terrorism, bolstering regional stability, and strengthening economic ties between our two nations.”

US forces in Iraq, which have weathered attacks known or believed to be perpetrated by Iranian-backed militias, have redeployed in recent years to the Kurdistan region as the operation against the Islamic State wound down.

Prior to the elections, Iraqi Defense Minister Thabet al Abbasi said that he had received a call from US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth “cautioning against any interference by Iraqi factions,” a likely reference to pro-Iranian militia groups, according to Asharq al Awsat. Abbasi said the call also touched on security cooperation. The Iraqi defense minister did not elaborate on the implications of the call, and it was unclear whether he was merely passing on the warning or highlighting how the US is pressuring Iraq to limit Iranian influence. The Pentagon also did not publish a read-out of the call.

In addition to US engagement with Baghdad, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio sent a letter to Kurdistan Regional Government President Nechirvan Barzani, praising the KRG’s leadership for reopening an oil pipeline to Turkey and “promoting stability in Syria,” among other policies. The letter underscores the importance the US continues to place on its close ties with the autonomous Kurdistan Region. 

Reporting from Israel, Seth J. Frantzman is an adjunct fellow at FDD and a contributor to FDD’s Long War Journal. He is the senior Middle East correspondent and analyst at The Jerusalem Post, and author of The October 7 War: Israel’s Battle for Security in Gaza (2024).