PKK announcement of withdrawal from Turkey has ramifications for Iraq, Syria

On October 26, the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) said it was withdrawing its fighters from Turkey. The withdrawal is part of a peace process that has seen the group say it will disarm and end a 40-year insurgency in eastern Turkey. While the withdrawal announcement is being greeted with optimism in Turkey, it may also have significant ramifications for Iraq and Syria because of the PKK and Turkish roles in both countries.

Al Ain News in the UAE captured the uncertainty hanging over the wider region in its October 28 article, asking whether the PKK’s move is a tactical move or a “strategic shift.”

“Sabri Ok, a member of the Kurdish umbrella organization, the Kurdistan Communities Union, said all PKK forces in Turkey were being withdrawn to areas in northern Iraq ‘to avoid clashes or provocations,’” the Associated Press reported. The Rudaw Media Network, based in Erbil in the Kurdistan Region of Northern Iraq, noted on October 27 that the United Nations had praised the PKK’s move. “Stephane Dujarric, spokesperson for UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, told Rudaw that the UN chief is ‘following very closely the progress made regarding the PKK and its decision to disarm and we take note of the announcement by the PKK that it’s withdrawing its forces from Turkey to Iraq,’” the report stated, also referencing Iraq as the likely destination of PKK forces.

The PKK has long had bases in the mountains of northern Iraq and is closely affiliated with the People’s Defense Units (YPG), a Kurdish group linked to the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Syria. Turkey’s state-run Anadolu Agency noted in July that “the Turkish government has repeatedly stressed over the years that the so-called SDF is led by the YPG, the Syrian branch of the PKK, which is designated a terrorist organization by both the US and Turkey.” Thus, the withdrawal from Turkey has ramifications for PKK-linked groups in Syria, the PKK’s bases in Iraq, and the Kurdish regions of both countries. It may also affect Syria’s attempt to integrate the SDF into Damascus-backed security forces.

In the week since the PKK’s announcement, there has been no clear official response in Iraq or Syria regarding how it may affect both countries.

The PKK’s role in northern Iraq affects the Kurdistan autonomous region, which is administered by the Kurdistan Regional Government. The leading party of the KRG, the Kurdistan Democratic Party, has historically opposed the PKK and maintained amicable ties with Turkey’s ruling AK Party. For instance, on October 9, Nechirvan Barzani, the president of Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), met Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in what the Turkish pro-government Daily Sabah termed an “anti-terrorism push.” The article asserted that Barzani had supported the peace process with the PKK in Turkey and urged the group to take the same actions in Syria, but did not speculate on what would happen in Iraq. “The KRG controls parts of Iraq where the PKK terrorist group’s senior leadership is hiding out,” the Daily Sabah noted.

“Did Baghdad and Erbil approve the PKK’s withdrawal from Turkey to northern Iraq?” a headline in The New Arab asked on October 28. The piece reported that “veteran Kurdish politician Mohammed Amin Penjweni [stated] that both federal Iraqi and Kurdish regional authorities could benefit from the PKK’s retreat, and suggested they were likely informed in advance.” The article also noted that the withdrawal could affect Turkish military posts in northern Iraq, which Turkey has maintained to fight the PKK for decades.

These impacts on Iraq could be influenced by the next phase of the peace talks in Turkey. Al Ain News noted on October 28 that “the presence of PKK elements in the Qandil Mountains of northern Iraq constitutes—according to Turkish security assessments—a persistent source of concern for Ankara, which insists on the complete dismantling of the party’s military structure.”

Rudaw has also noted that US “engagement” may be key to the success of the peace talks in Turkey. The US, which classifies the PKK as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, is a close partner of the KRG and the SDF, both of which stand to be impacted by the PKK’s move to Iraq.

Reporting from Israel, Seth J. Frantzman is an adjunct fellow at FDD and a contributor to FDD’s Long War Journal. He is the senior Middle East correspondent and analyst at The Jerusalem Post, and author of The October 7 War: Israel’s Battle for Security in Gaza (2024).