Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: November

China ramped up its pressure on multiple fronts this month yet received little meaningful response from the Biden administration. Beijing seized on Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s speech marking Taiwan’s National Day to justify large-scale military drills. As part of an exercise dubbed Joint Sword-2024B, the People’s Liberation Army deployed 153 aircraft and 17 warships to encircle the island, with over 100 aircraft violating Taiwan’s air space. For the first time, China’s Coast Guard participated in the drills, simulating a blockade of Taiwan’s key ports. Despite these provocations, the Biden administration has yet to impose any costs on Beijing, undermining U.S. deterrence.

Meanwhile, a cyberattack attributed to the Chinese state-backed hacking group Salt Typhoon compromised several U.S. telecommunications providers. The hackers reportedly gained access to systems used for court-authorized wiretaps and targeted the phones of several high-profile U.S. political candidates, including former President Donald Trump, Senator JD Vance, and members of Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign. Yet, as with the Taiwan drills, the Biden administration has offered little in the way of a substantive response to this massive intelligence breach, potentially encouraging China to take even bolder risks in the future.

In addition, China has also stepped up its meddling in the upcoming U.S. election. Beijing has sought to influence down-ballot races, criticized anti-Chinese Communist Party legislators, and disseminated disinformation to erode faith in the electoral process itself. If the election results are contested, China appears poised to intensify these efforts with impunity, further undermining U.S. democracy and sowing societal divisions.

Media reports revealed that a Chinese state-sponsored hacker group known as Salt Typhoon compromised U.S. telecommunications companies, possibly granting Beijing unprecedented access to wiretap and counterintelligence information. In response, the administration activated the unified coordination group mechanism, which gathers relevant cyber authorities to coordinate the federal response to emergencies such as Salt Typhoon.

Meanwhile, the Department of Justice (DOJ) indicted two brothers for running a cybercriminal group that attacked Israel’s emergency notification system on October 7, 2023. DOJ also arrested an Alabama man for hacking the Securities and Exchange Commission’s X account to inflate Bitcoin prices. Additionally, DOJ seized dozens of internet domains used in Russian cyber operations. The Treasury Department sanctioned seven individuals and two corporations associated with Russian cybercrime conglomerate Evil Corp, while DOJ indicted its second-in-command. DOJ also proposed new rules restricting the sale of Americans’ personal data to Russia, China, and Iran.

Alongside allies and partners, the administration hosted the fourth Counter Ransomware Initiative summit. Now comprising 68 members, the initiative announced a new fund to help countries respond to major cyberattacks. How this fund differs from or complements the State Department’s cyber assistance fund remains unclear.

Finally, the intelligence community declassified additional information about foreign influence operations targeting the U.S. election. The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and the FBI provided tips to combat Iranian cyberattacks. CISA published a framework to improve software security. CISA and international partners also released guidance on operational technology cybersecurity, complementing a separate Department of Energy supply chain cybersecurity effort.

After Iran launched approximately 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on October 1, the Biden administration deployed a U.S. Army Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery to Israel — a notable decision to put U.S. soldiers on the ground to help defend the Jewish state. The THAAD deployment will increase the capacity to intercept Iranian ballistic missiles fired at Israel. That additional missile defense capacity may prove useful if Iran initiates a new round of ballistic missile attacks following Israel’s successful pre-dawn retaliatory strikes on October 26.

U.S. military forces, including B-2 bombers, conducted precision strikes in Yemen on October 16 “against five hardened underground weapons storage locations.” In a not-so-subtle message to the Islamic Republic of Iran, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said the strike represented “a unique demonstration of the United States’ ability to target facilities that our adversaries seek to keep out of reach, no matter how deeply buried underground, hardened, or fortified.” Iran likely does not doubt the U.S. military’s capability but may question whether the administration would ever use it against the regime’s nuclear program.

Meanwhile, in the Pacific, China deployed a record 125 aircraft in military exercises around Taiwan. Many of the aircraft entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone. Beijing’s Liaoning aircraft carrier and other ships also joined the exercises, simulating a naval blockade.

Those exercises underscore the importance of efforts to expand U.S.-Japan combined operations. A U.S. F-35B aircraft landed on the Japanese Izumo-class multi-functional destroyer JS Kaga for the first time on October 20.

During a phone call with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in mid-October, President Biden announced a $425 million military aid package for Ukraine. He also promised large amounts of additional assistance in the coming months, including equipment and munitions to help Ukraine defend its skies and equip new brigades. Due to Hurricane Milton, however, Biden postponed a leaders-level meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, which he had promised to convene during Zelenskyy’s White House visit in September.

On October 18, Biden arrived in Berlin to meet with his German, French, and British counterparts. They discussed a range of issues, including Ukraine and the Middle East. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin also traveled to Europe for meetings with counterparts from NATO allies, the defeat-ISIS coalition, and the G7. This was the first-ever G7 defense ministerial and the first time Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand joined a NATO defense ministerial. Austin also participated in a NATO-Ukraine Council meeting attended by Zelenskyy.

Austin later went to Kyiv, where he discussed military planning with Ukrainian officials and delivered a speech reminding skeptics that U.S. support for Ukraine serves American interests. He also announced an additional $400 million in security assistance. However, the administration continues to rebuff Kyiv’s request for permission to strike inside Russia using U.S.-provided missiles.

On October 23, Biden announced that Washington will provide Ukraine with $20 billion in loans that will be repaid using interest from frozen Russian assets. This is the U.S. contribution to a G7 plan under which allies will provide another $30 billion.

During a trip to Doha on October 24, Secretary of State Antony Blinken failed to call out his counterpart, Abdul-Rahman Al Thani, when the Qatari foreign minister described Qatar’s state-controlled Al Jazeera as “an independent media institution that [is] run out of Doha.” Blinken even brushed aside evidence, obtained by the Israel Defense Forces, showing that six Al Jazeera reporters in Gaza were also members of Hamas.

Al Jazeera is notorious for its rampant antisemitism and agitation against Israel and the United States. Doha funds Al Jazeera but refuses to disclose the network’s finances. Some estimate that the Al Jazeera receives $1 billion annually from the Qatari government.

Washington has been trying to revive indirect diplomacy between Israel and Hamas, reasoning that the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas would put an end to the year-old war in Gaza. Qatar has played a key role in mediating these talks. But since Israel killed Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar in mid-October, it has been unclear who is running the terrorist group or can talk on its behalf.

That America seeks out Doha to resume talks with headless Hamas suggests that the Qatari mediators are more than a channel to the Palestinian terrorist group. Qatar may be a partner in Hamas’s decision-making process. As such, Washington should give Doha an ultimatum: Either free the Israeli hostages or the United States will start shopping for a new forward headquarters for U.S. Central Command, currently housed at Qatar’s al-Udeid Air Base.

While much of the world’s attention is focused on the U.S. election, Palau’s November 5 elections are also key in the U.S.-China competition for Pacific influence. Palau is one of the few countries with ties to Taiwan and a close security relationship with the United States. The Chinese have employed naval incursions, cyberattacks, and attempted bribery in an effort to destabilize and gain influence in the Pacific island nation. In response, the Biden administration has invested in Palau’s infrastructure and affirmed its strategic role through military cooperation and by rebuilding a runway in the country.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration pledged to enhance Coast Guard operations in the Indo-Pacific and Arctic Oceans in response to rising threats from China and Russia. The Coast Guard will focus on combating illegal fishing, safeguarding global trade routes, and expanding cooperation in Southeast Asia. At the same time, the U.S. Navy announced plans to equip some of its ships with Patriot interceptor missiles to counter China’s hypersonic threats in the region. These and other welcome moves signal Washington’s commitment to supporting its Pacific partners and countering Chinese influence in the region.

Furthermore, with the Biden administration’s tacit backing, South China Sea nations are increasingly pushing back against Beijing. Malaysia vowed to continue oil and gas exploration despite Chinese protests, while Indonesia said it has driven Chinese vessels from its waters under newly inaugurated President Prabowo Subianto. European naval forces have also stepped up their patrols, marking a notable shift in the region’s response to China’s territorial ambitions. Still unclear, however, is how Washington plans to address China’s growing belligerence with the Philippines, which risks spiraling into a larger conflict.

In an October 13 letter threatening to cut off U.S. assistance to Israel, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin urged Jerusalem to scrap legislation banning the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) due to its support for terror. Despite a congressional prohibition on U.S. funding for UNRWA until March 2025, and despite the availability of turnkey alternatives to UNRWA in Gaza, Blinken and Austin claimed the draft Israeli legislation “would devastate the Gaza humanitarian response” and “could have implications under relevant US law and policy.” They did not describe what those implications would be or what laws or policies might be relevant. The Biden administration’s defense of UNRWA came as a Hamas commander who led an assault on October 7 was unmasked as an UNRWA employee and as Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was found with an UNRWA teacher’s passport.

Meanwhile, in stark contrast, the administration halted its relationship with the World Food Programme (WFP) in Ethiopia after discovering massive theft of U.S. assistance with the apparent knowledge of WFP staff. An internal WFP report claimed the organization committed no wrongdoing, instead shifting the blame to the local aid recipients. In addition to the aid-diversion issues, the WFP has at times served as a mouthpiece for Hamas in Gaza, including by contributing to false claims about a non-existent famine. Still, Washington has no apparent plan to organize an independent investigation or press the WFP for reforms.

On October 1, the Islamic Republic of Iran launched the largest-ever single-day ballistic missile attack against Israel, comprising 181 nuclear-capable, medium-range ballistic missiles. Israeli and American forces intercepted most of the missiles. However, satellite imagery indicates that around 30 missiles managed to hit an Israeli air base housing fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets, though the strikes did not substantially damage the base and no aircraft appear to have been destroyed. Following the strike, the Biden administration expressed support for Israel’s right to retaliate. But Washington publicly circumscribed that right to include only military targets, a restriction that Israel later accepted. Days later, the administration joined its G7 partners in issuing a forceful condemnation of the Iranian attack.

Additionally, following the October 1 attack, the administration, pursuant to mandatory sanctions described in the Stop Harboring Iranian Petroleum (SHIP) Act, sanctioned a diverse network of foreign front companies and vessels facilitating illicit Iranian exports of petroleum and petrochemical products. Similarly, pursuant to the SHIP Act, the U.S. Energy Information Agency issued its first report on Iranian oil sales under the Biden administration, estimated at $144 billion.

In late October, Iran executed U.S. resident and German citizen Jamshid Sharmahd, whom it had captured in the United Arab Emirates in April 2020. Sharmahd was sentenced to death in early 2023 but was excluded from the Biden administration’s August 2023 hostage deal with Iran in which Tehran freed five American prisoners in exchange for access to $6 billion in frozen Iranian oil revenue.

After Iran launched 181 missiles at Israel on October 1, the Biden administration pressured Israel not to respond with strikes against Iranian oil or nuclear facilities. The revelation of what were claimed to be leaked U.S. intelligence documents regarding Israeli preparations for retaliation against Iran may have disrupted that operation. The FBI is investigating the leak. Israel finally punched back on October 25, hitting Iranian missile production facilities and crippling the Islamic Republic’s air defenses.

The White House promised “consequences” for Iran should it choose to respond. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke with his Israeli counterpart on October 26, highlighting the recent deployment of a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery to Israel to bolster its air defense. Austin warned that Iran should not “make the mistake” of responding to Israel’s operation.

In a letter to Israeli ministers on October 13, Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken demanded that Israel take urgent steps to ensure access to humanitarian supplies in northern Gaza. The letter gave Jerusalem one month to comply or possibly face the suspension of arms transfers. During a visit to the region on October 21-25, Blinken pressed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the issue. Meanwhile, on October 19, Austin said the number of civilian casualties in Lebanon is “far too high,” adding that he would “like to see Israel scale back some of the strikes it’s taking, especially in and around Beirut.”

North Korea tested an intercontinental ballistic missile on October 30, showcasing the missile’s longest flight time yet and an ability to threaten America with nuclear weapons. Pyongyang likely did so to ensure the Korean Peninsula garners U.S. attention following the presidential election. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un recently reiterated that he would not rule out using nuclear weapons in a potential conflict.

South Korean intelligence believes North Korea is sending some 10,000 soldiers to Russia to assist in its war against Ukraine. As of October 25, several thousand of those troops had arrived in Russia’s Kursk region, where Ukraine launched a surprise offensive in August, U.S. and Ukrainian officials told The New York Times. Secretary of Defense Austin stated on October 23 that while the exact role of Pyongyang’s troops remains to be seen, the development marks a “next step” in the evolution of Russia and North Korea’s “strengthened relationship.” Seoul is considering sending arms as well as personnel to Ukraine to “analyze North Korean battlefield tactics and assist in interrogations of captured North Koreans.”

The Biden administration has not indicated how the introduction of North Korean forces might change U.S. policy toward the Ukraine war or the Korean Peninsula. An anonymous U.S. official told Politico that North Korea “is already sanctioned to the hilt, more sanctions can’t really do much.” Since mid-2018, though, Washington has not rigorously enforced sanctions against North Korea. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby warned, however, that if “North Korean troops are employed against Ukraine, they will become legitimate military targets.”

Latin America remains a low priority for the Biden administration. When it is engaged, the administration continues to prioritize civil society, gender, racial justice, development issues, and combating organized crime. These are all important issues, but the administration continues to devote little attention to weakening the authoritarian axis of Bolivia, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela and countering Chinese, Iranian, and Russian efforts to erode U.S. influence in the region.

In early October, Todd D. Robinson, assistant secretary of state for international narcotics and law enforcement affairs, led an interagency delegation to Guatemala for the inaugural U.S.-Guatemala High-Level Security Dialogue. He traveled to the Dominican Republic, Argentina, and Uruguay to strengthen cooperation in the fight against drug trafficking. Meanwhile, the U.S. ambassador-at-large for global women’s issues, Dr. Geeta Rao Gupta, traveled to Brasilia to attend a G20 working group meeting on empowerment of women. And U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs Brian A. Nichols visited Belize in early October to discuss security and inclusive prosperity.

Despite listing Haiti, Venezuela, and the migration crisis as its top priorities in the Western Hemisphere during the UN General Assembly in September, the administration has made no substantial progress on the latter two issues. On Venezuela, Washington has still declined to reimpose oil sanctions on the Maduro regime for stealing the country’s July 28 presidential election and persecuting opposition leaders.

The Biden administration has begrudgingly acquiesced to Israeli military operation in Lebanon, which aims to degrade the Iran-backed terror group Hezbollah and push its forces back from Israel’s northern border. Over the past month, Israel has continued to deal critical blows to Hezbollah’s military capabilities. Israel has also struck Hezbollah financial institutions to complicate the terror group’s post-war regeneration.

At the same time, the administration has continued to try to encourage Israeli restraint. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has publicly called on Israel to ease up its airstrikes on Hezbollah’s stronghold in southern Beirut, which is also densely populated by civilians. U.S. officials have conveyed similar messages behind closed doors. Perhaps due to U.S. pressure, Israel seems to have reduced the tempo of its airstrikes. While Washington aims to ensure the protection of non-combatants, constraining Israel’s airstrikes risks giving Hezbollah breathing room to regain its footing and put up stiff opposition to Israeli ground forces in southern Lebanon.

Meanwhile, the administration has seized every opportunity to press Israel to agree to a ceasefire in Lebanon even though Hezbollah is far from defeat. Jerusalem has resisted these efforts. U.S. officials seem to believe they can work through the Lebanese state to restrain and ultimately disarm Hezbollah — despite the lack of any credible indication from the Lebanese that they are willing or capable to do so. This is essentially the same tired policy that successive administrations have pursued for the past 20 years, and it has demonstrably failed to rein in Hezbollah.

The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) released a second edition of its nuclear threat assessment, covering nuclear and nuclear-capable delivery threats from China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran. The report found that “China is undergoing the most rapid expansion and ambitious modernization of its nuclear forces in history,” in part to compete strategically with the United States. Beijing’s total nuclear arsenal “has far surpassed [DIA’s] earlier growth estimates” and “currently exceed[s] 500 deliverable nuclear warheads.” In 2018, DIA estimated that China’s arsenal included 200 warheads.

President Biden and his administration warned Jerusalem against striking Iranian nuclear sites in retaliation for Tehran’s October 1 missile attack on Israel. However, according to satellite imagery, Israel may have struck a former Iranian weaponization building within the Parchin military complex, known as Taleghan 2. Jerusalem likely intended to send a message to Tehran about its willingness to strike additional nuclear facilities should Iran continue attacking Israel, while not running afoul of Washington’s warning.

The United Kingdom held a public inquiry into the death of a British woman killed as a result of a 2018 Russian assassination attempt using a chemical weapon. A UK counsel emphasized that the amount of banned nerve agent, Novichok, that Russian intelligence officers transported into the country was “enough poison to kill thousands of people.” According to the State Department, Russia has also employed riot control agents and the choking agent chloropicrin against Ukrainian troops, in violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention. Yet the Biden administration has not led member states of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons in addressing Moscow’s undeclared chemical weapons program.

Video footage and other evidence indicate the Taliban is allowing al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups to train on building “light aircraft and drones” that can be assembled from “off the shelf” items and assembled near attack locations. Al-Qaeda and other terror groups are also learning to use tactics such as ultralight aircraft and paraglider assaults. FDD’s Long War Journal can confirm this report and has been told by U.S. officials that some of the training is conducted on former U.S. bases abandoned after the August 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan. Al-Qaeda is known to be operating training camps in at least 12 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces, yet the Biden administration has not struck a single al-Qaeda camp despite touting its over-the-horizon capabilities. The United States has launched only one strike in Afghanistan since the withdrawal, killing former al-Qaeda emir Ayman al-Zawahiri at a Taliban safehouse in Kabul in July 2022.

The U.S. military continues to target the Islamic State’s network in Iraq and Syria in an effort to defeat the terror group. On October 11, “a series of airstrikes … against multiple known ISIS camps in Syria” killed an estimated 35 ISIS operatives, including “several ISIS leaders.” On October 22, U.S. troops partnered with Iraqi Security Forces launched strikes and raids against the Islamic State’s network in central Iraq, killing seven ISIS operatives. Two U.S. soldiers were wounded during the operation. Iraqi forces killed four more ISIS operatives during strikes in northeastern Iraq. The United States plans to end its military mission in Iraq in 2025 — despite the Islamic State’s persistent presence.

The Treasury Department imposed sanctions on October 16 on two Syrians and one Lebanese national for their roles in trafficking Captagon, “a dangerous, highly addictive amphetamine” that “has become a billion-dollar illicit enterprise operated by senior members of the Syrian regime.” Repeated prodding from Congress has pushed the administration to take a more active approach to the problem. In April, President Biden signed into law the Illicit Captagon Trafficking Suppression Act as part of a larger foreign aid package. Before the bill’s incorporation into the broader package, the House voted 410-13 in favor of its passage. The legislation identified eight individuals as prospective targets for sanctions. Of the eight, two were among Treasury’s targets on October 16, Raji Falhout and Abdellatif Hamideh. The European Union, which has proven more responsive to the Captagon threat, sanctioned both Falhout and Hamideh in April 2023 along with five others who would appear on Congress’s list of prospective targets.

Several Arab governments have restored diplomatic ties with the Syrian regime in hopes that Damascus would curtail its trafficking of Captagon, whose consumer base is located mainly in the Arab Gulf states as well as Jordan. The Biden administration quietly encouraged this rehabilitation of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad while denying it had such a policy. The results are a clear disappointment, with Assad and Hezbollah stepping up their trafficking efforts after a brief pause. Over the past year, seizures of Captagon have increased fourfold on the Syrian-Jordanian border. Goodwill concessions to Assad, in hopes he will reciprocate, are a fool’s errand.

The U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned three Turkey-based individuals and one Lebanon-based “sham charity” on October 7 for serving as “prominent international financial supporters of Hamas.” The sanctions, imposed on the first anniversary of Hamas’s October 7 massacre, underscored Turkey’s ongoing support for the terrorist organization.

Among the targeted individuals were high-profile Hamas financiers Hamid Abdullah Hussein al-Ahmar and Majed al-Zeer. Ahmar manages the group’s investment portfolio of over $500 million, while Zeer leads Hamas fundraising operations in Europe. In 2014, Hamas sources reported that Zeer brokered a “secret agreement” on behalf of Hamas with the Turkish government, allowing the terror group to move some of its leadership to Istanbul.

Additionally, Treasury designated nine companies owned or controlled by Ahmar, three of which are based in Turkey. Ahmar also runs the League of Parliamentarians for al-Quds and Palestine (LP4Q), an organization headquartered in Istanbul that champions Hamas as a defender of Palestine. LP4Q has deep ties to Turkey’s ruling Islamist AKP party and hosted Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the speaker of the Turkish Parliament at its latest conference in April.

On the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund’s and World Bank’s annual meetings on October 25, Treasury Secretary Janet Yelen reminded her Turkish counterpart, Mehmet Simsek, about “the importance of sanctions compliance and preventing abuse of the Turkish financial system by sanctions evaders and terrorist groups.” Unfortunately, despite U.S. sanctions and warnings, Ankara continues to aid and abet Hamas.