October 26, 2024 | Policy Brief

Israel Retaliates Against Iran Regime with Precision Strikes

October 26, 2024 | Policy Brief

Israel Retaliates Against Iran Regime with Precision Strikes

In the early hours of October 26, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced it had successfully targeted key Iranian military and defense industry assets, including air defense systems, missile production facilities, and UAV production sites. The precision strikes follow more than a year of Iranian proxy attacks on Israel, and two rounds of direct attacks on Israel from Iranian territory on April 13 and October 1.

The Israeli Air Force (IAF) reportedly struck multiple S-300 air defense systems, demonstrating it can cripple Iran’s defense of its airspace, critical infrastructure, and facilities. All Israeli aircraft returned home safely, demonstrating the IAF’s dominance in the air.

The strikes sent a clear message that Israel is prepared to deliver a disproportionate amount of damage to high-value targets. This potency contrasts with the ineffectiveness of Iran’s large-scale missile and drone assaults on April 13-14 and October 1 that caused minimal damage to the Jewish state.

One of Israel’s targets on October 26 appears to have been the Parchin military complex, where the IAF reportedly struck critical rocket engine manufacturing facilities linked to long-range missile production. There may also have been damage to facilities connected to the early stages of nuclear weaponization, though Iran denies nuclear activities at Parchin.

In addition to demonstrating precision targeting capabilities, the IAF operation both serves as preparation for future actions should  these become necessary, and sends Tehran the message that it is vulnerable to future strikes. 

For now, Israel seems to have achieved its goal of “closing this round,” as Iran downplays the extent of the damage to save face, rather than signaling another attack .  But Israel must now prepare for a potential Iranian nuclear weapons breakout.

Meanwhile, the United States should recognize that if Israel can strike the clerical regime with such impact, U.S. air forces could inflict far greater damage — if Washington only had the will to hold Tehran accountable for its actions. And it is possible the regime will test Washington’s resolve in the lame duck period that looms between the U.S. presidential election on November 5 and the next president taking office on January 20.

If Donald Trump wins, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei may act during this period. Fearing Trump’s return to a “maximum pressure” policy and stronger support for Israel, Khamenei may play his “nuclear queen” to secure the “regime king.”

If Kamala Harris wins, Khamenei might avoid escalation, presuming Harris will continue Joe Biden’s policy of passivity amid Iran’s nuclear advances and limited  enforcement of sanctions, which has allowed Iran to grow its oil exports tremendously.

Yet given reports of Khamenei’s illness, the supreme leader may accelerate Iran’s nuclear efforts to bolster the prospects of regime survival under his successor. Israel has sent an important deterrent message, but the United States could send one that is far more persuasive.

Issues:

Issues:

Iran Iran Global Threat Network Iran Missiles Israel Israel at War

Topics:

Topics:

Ali Khamenei Donald Trump Iran Israel Israel Defense Forces Israeli Air Force Jewish people Joe Biden Kamala Harris Parchin S-300 missile system Tehran Unmanned aerial vehicle