Fdd's overnight brief

September 27, 2024

FDD Research & Analysis

In The News

Israel

A year ago, Israel suffered its worst-ever intelligence failure when Hamas launched a surprise attack, killing 1,200 people and taking around 250 hostages. Today, a wave of strikes against Hezbollah has Israel’s long-vaunted spies back on the front foot. – Wall Street Journal

Israel will continue to discuss ceasefire proposals for Lebanon in the days ahead, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Friday, as Washington warned that further escalation would only make it harder for civilians on both sides to return home. – Reuters

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Israel on Thursday that further escalation to the conflict involving Lebanon will only make it harder for civilians to return home on both sides of the border, the State Department said. – Reuters

An Israeli airstrike on a school sheltering displaced families in the northern Gaza Strip killed at least 14 people on Thursday, Palestinians medics said, with the Israeli military saying it targeted militants using the compound. – Reuters

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas urged the U.N. General Assembly on Thursday to stop the war in the Gaza Strip between Israel and Palestinian Hamas militants, saying Israel had almost entirely destroyed Gaza and it was no longer fit for life. – Reuters

The Israeli army said it intercepted a missile that was fired from Yemen after sirens and explosions were heard early on Friday. – Reuters

Israel said on Thursday it had secured an $8.7 billion aid package from the United States to support its ongoing military efforts and to maintain a qualitative military edge in the region. – Reuters

The head of one of Hezbollah’s air force units, Mohammad Surur, was killed in Israel’s strike on Beirut’s southern suburbs on Thursday afternoon, two security sources told Reuters. – Reuters

Alarms sounded in Acre on Thursday morning after approximately 45 rockets were identified crossing from Lebanese territory, the IDF reported. – Jerusalem Post

The chief of the Israeli Air Force, Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar, said Thursday that preventing all weapon transfers from Iran to Hezbollah is now a top priority, adding that the Lebanese terror group’s ability to recover from its losses in recent days, inflicted by a punishing Israeli offensive, is dependent on its ability to rearm. – Times of Israel

A diplomatic source said that Hamas has stopped responding to proposals relayed by mediating countries in recent weeks regarding negotiations for a hostage release and cease-fire deal. – Haaretz

Rick Ekstein and Arsen Ostrovsky write: This is not the time for half measures. Hamas, Hezbollah and their sponsors in Tehran must be decisively defeated, not contained.  […] The bad actors of today — China,  Russia, Iran, North Korea and their proxies — do not negotiate from a place of weakness or fear international opinion. Instead, they project power without concern for identity politics or public sentiment. In short, the West must play to win in order to defend freedom. – The Hill

Liat Collins writes: Meanwhile, the Islamic Republic of Iran has no incentive to stop funding its terrorist proxies or put an end to its plans to develop nuclear weapons, just a touch away. […] The West needs to understand that you can’t defeat enemies by hiding from them. Security and peace require hitting and destroying the enemy. Turning the other cheek, or looking the other way, will not prevent the next terrorist blow. – Jerusalem Post

Iran

Israeli airstrikes are dealing withering blows to Hezbollah, one of Iran’s most important allies and a key defensive buffer for the Islamic republic. But Tehran has been reluctant to intervene on behalf of the militant group, choosing instead to pursue engagement with the West. – Washington Post

Yemen’s Houthi rebels have grown “from a localised armed group with limited capabilities to a powerful military organization” with the help of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Iraqi specialists, according to a confidential report by U.N. sanctions monitors. – Reuters

Iran said on Thursday that accusations it had targeted former U.S. officials were baseless, after former U.S. president Donald Trump implicated Iran, without offering evidence, in assassination attempts against him. – Reuters

A grand jury has indicted multiple Iranians on charges related to hacking Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign. – Politico

The head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog on Thursday said Iran is showing “willingness” to re-engage on the nuclear issue, but that Tehran will not reconsider its decision to deny access to top UN inspectors. – Agence France-Presse

The US State Department announced a $20 million reward on Thursday for information leading to the arrest of the alleged Iranian mastermind behind a plot to assassinate former White House official John Bolton. – Agence France-Presse

Editorial: Mr. Biden’s officials have praised Qatar’s diplomatic efforts, while briefing reporters that Israel is blocking a Gaza deal. Mr. Pezeshkian’s UN speech, in which he expresses readiness to return to the 2015 nuclear deal, might whet appetites in some Washington circles. Regardless of its diplomatic failures, the Biden-Harris administration appears willing to entertain any attempt at diplomacy — including with those who wish America ill. – New York Sun

Russia & Ukraine

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky told lawmakers his top priority is securing U.S. permission to fire long-range missiles to hit military targets in Russia, as he held a whirlwind set of meetings at the White House and Capitol laying out his plan to turn the tide in the war. – Wall Street Journal

Russia, the world’s leading wheat exporter, is expanding its Baltic Sea ports as it aims to boost agricultural exports by 50% by 2030 while reducing dependence on traditional Black Sea routes, officials and executives said. – Reuters

The Kremlin said on Thursday that changes to Russia’s nuclear weapons doctrine outlined by President Vladimir Putin should be considered a signal to Western countries that there will be consequences if they participate in attacks on Russia. – Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that the vast domestic energy sector will be able to achieve its goals and overcome “illegal” western sanctions, while also praising ties with BRICS and OPEC+ groups. – Reuters

Ukraine’s air defenses battled an overnight Russian aerial attack on the capital Kyiv for five hours, officials said Thursday, as missiles and drones again hammered the Ukrainian power grid. – Associated Press

Ukraine has moved to restrict the draft of men over 50 years of age to address brewing public discontent over conscription, according to local media. – Bloomberg

The head of Ukraine’s presidential office and the country’s foreign policy chief held a rare meeting with China’s top diplomat just hours after President Volodymyr Zelenskiy ramped up his criticism of Beijing for aiding Russia’s war. – Bloomberg

Editorial: President Biden and Kamala Harris talk a better game on Ukraine than Mr. Trump, but their limits and delays on U.S. weapons have hurt Ukraine’s defense. No matter who wins the U.S. election, some kind of Ukraine-Russia negotiation is likely. Ukraine will be in a stronger negotiating position if it regains more territory and puts Russia on the defensive. To do that it will need the prospect of bipartisan U.S. support, and Mr. Zelensky’s trip this week won’t help him on that crucial score. – Wall Street Journal

Jillian Kay Melchior writes: The U.S. can build on this momentum by removing restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Army Tactical Missile systems on Russian territory. The Institute for the Study of War last month documented “no fewer than 245” Russian targets that would be in range, including more weapons-storage facilities, as well as military bases, tank-repair facilities, logistics centers and other sites that support front-line operations. Kharkiv’s experience illustrates what a difference striking them could make. – Wall Street Journal

Marc Champion writes: One Soviet example cited was the parading of massive, fake, multiple warhead missiles on Red Square, followed by fake documents and conversations designed to be found or overheard by foreign spies, to create a backstory that made the fake more realistic Russia’s nuclear threats have been tested as the US and its European allies have crossed one imagined red line after another. Putin was never going to push his red button, but that doesn’t mean he won’t push others. – Bloomberg

Hezbollah

But fighting Hezbollah is not a straightforward task. The group is also a Shiite Muslim political party, backed by Iran, with an influential role in Lebanon’s faction-ridden political system. It provides social services to a large base of supporters. And its fighters and missiles are hidden among Lebanon’s civilian population. – New York Times

An 87-year-old Frenchwoman was killed after “a strong explosion” in the south of Lebanon, the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Thursday. – Reuters

Mark Toth and Jonathan Sweet write: Those targets, when identified, will likely be reduced via artillery, attack drones and direct-fire weapon systems days or hours prior to the assault, to minimize IDF casualties. The message being sent to Hezbollah’s footsoldiers is simple: The IDF is coming. When the artillery strikes begin, it will be too late. As for Nasrallah, he’ll either end up dead — or capitulate and withdraw behind the UN-mandated Litani River line. – New York Post

Lebanon

Western nations were weighing their options on Thursday on how to safely get nationals out of Lebanon if a full-scale war breaks out, diplomats said, with Cyprus and possibly Turkey seen as offering sanctuary to tens of thousands of people. – Reuters

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer met his Lebanese counterpart at the United Nations and discussed the importance of an immediate ceasefire and a negotiated solution in the conflict with Israel, his office said on Friday. – Reuters

When she first heard about the evacuation warnings Israel was sending to residents of Lebanon, Aline Naser’s thoughts immediately turned to Gaza. – Associated Press

Middle East & North Africa

Turkey is making preparations for the possible evacuation of foreign nationals and its citizens from Lebanon, as cross-border fire between Israel and militant group Hezbollah continues, a Turkish defence ministry source said on Thursday. – Reuters

The United Arab Emirates aims to release its new national climate plan under the Paris climate agreement, outlining how it will cut its greenhouse gas emissions from 2025 to 2035, before the COP29 climate summit in November. – Reuters

Egyptian and international civil society groups on Thursday called for the release of the country’s most prominent activist, Alaa Abd el-Fattah, after his lawyer indicated that he would remain in detention until 2027. – Reuters

Algerian authorities resumed visa requirements for Moroccan nationals entering the country on Thursday, state news agency APS reported, accusing its neighbour of abusing visa-free entries to allow criminal activities over the border in a fresh measure against Rabat. – Reuters

Korean Peninsula

South Korea looks forward to working together with Japan’s new cabinet to forge positive ties with its closest neighbour and partner, its foreign ministry said, in comments made after the election of Shigeru Ishiba as leader of Japan’s ruling party. – Reuters

South Korean lawmakers on Thursday passed a bill that criminalises possessing or watching sexually explicit deepfake images and videos, with penalties set to include prison terms and fines. – Reuters

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Thursday that Moscow viewed the notion of “denuclearising” North Korea as a “closed issue” as it understood Pyongyang’s logic of relying on nuclear weapons as the foundation of its defence. – Reuters

North Korea has enough plutonium and uranium to produce at least a double-digit number of nuclear weapons, a South Korean lawmaker said on Thursday, citing the country’s spy agency. – Reuters

The world must recognize that North Korea possesses nuclear weapons and pursue dialogue despite its violations of U.N. sanctions and international law, the United Nations’ nuclear chief said Thursday. – Associated Press

China

China’s newest nuclear-powered attack submarine sank in the spring, a major setback for one of the country’s priority weapons programs, U.S. officials said. – Wall Street Journal

China’s leaders have been drip-feeding support into their ailing economy for three years. This week, they jacked up the dose. A major injection of stimulus from the central bank—and promises of more government support from the Communist Party’s top decision-making body—mark the beginning of a more muscular approach from Beijing to righting the economy after months of hesitancy, economists say. – Wall Street Journal

A Hong Kong judge on Thursday sentenced a former editor of a popular online news outlet to one year and nine months in prison for publishing articles deemed “seditious,” an unprecedented penalty for journalism that was long considered routine and is ostensibly protected in the city. – Washington Post

Australia and China agreed to cooperate further on investment, trade and decarbonisation, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said on Friday during a rare visit to Beijing where he praised the recent stimulus packages announced by China. – Reuters

China’s intercontinental ballistic missile launch was for weapons testing and training, and was a routine and legitimate arrangement, its defence ministry said on Thursday. – Reuters

Semiconductor manufacturers will spend a record $400 billion on computer chip-making equipment in 2025-2027, global industry association SEMI said in estimates published on Thursday, with China, South Korea and Taiwan leading the way. – Reuters

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Friday in New York City, the U.S. State Department said. – Reuters

Catherine Thorbecke writes: The warning prompted viral responses on X, formerly Twitter, from Japanese users telling Chinese people not to come to Japan and other xenophobic, anti-Chinese remarks. The memory of the boy himself is proof these two sides have more in common than it might seem. He had a Japanese father and a Chinese mother, with cultural roots in both countries. Beijing and Tokyo must listen to their citizens and tone down the damaging rhetoric. – Bloomberg

South Asia

The entrance to the district police headquarters in southern Pakistan was carpeted with rose petals, a grand gesture of respect. A crowd filled the air with chants of Islamic slogans. Many carried garlands and flower bouquets to laud the officers for their actions. – New York Times

The Indian government has slashed its goal to create thousands of new tribunals to try sex crimes speedily after states like West Bengal, where the recent brutal rape-homicide of a doctor shook the nation, fell far short of targets, according to three federal government officials and an internal document seen by Reuters. – Reuters

Pakistan has received “significant financing assurances” from China, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates linked to a new International Monetary Fund program that go beyond a deal to roll over $12 billion in bilateral loans owed to them by Islamabad, an IMF official said on Thursday. – Reuters

Pakistan’s military said on Thursday that the country has signed a contract to sell JF-17 Block III fighter jets to Azerbaijan. – Reuters

Myanmar’s ruling military on Thursday urged its armed opponents to abandon what it called “terrorism” and join the political fold in a general election next year, in an unexpected outreach to its enemies that was quickly rebuffed. – Reuters

The Taliban said Thursday it was absurd to accuse them of gender discrimination and other human rights violations, as four countries vow to hold Afghanistan’s rulers accountable under international law for their treatment of women and girls. – Associated Press

Soon after student protesters dramatically took down Bangladesh’s government last month, a group of boys broke into the home of Tureen Afroz, the former chief prosecutor of a tribunal for war crimes committed during the nation’s independence movement in the early 1970s. – Bloomberg

Asia

Shigeru Ishiba, an outspoken former defense minister, is set to become Japan’s new prime minister next week, taking the helm of the world’s fourth-largest economy at a time of rising prices at home and increasing tensions in the Asia-Pacific. – Washington Post

A Japanese court found an 88-year-old man not guilty on Thursday in a retrial for a 1966 quadruple murder, reversing the decision that had put Iwao Hakamada on death row for 45 years. – Washington Post

Naval vessels from New Zealand and Australia sailed through the Taiwan Strait on Wednesday, according to a statement from New Zealand Defence Minister Judith Collins on Thursday. – Reuters

Fijian President Ratu Wiliame Katonivere called for “respect for our region” and a stop to missile tests in the Pacific Ocean, after China launched an intercontinental ballistic missile. – Reuters

Indonesia will improve supervision of its commodities sector after the U.S. Department of Labor said there was forced labour in the country’s nickel industry, a senior manpower ministry official said on Friday. – Reuters

Gearoid Reidy writes: In his unexpected defeat of Takaichi, Ishiba emulated one of Ishibashi’s most famous victories, when he came from behind to beat Kishi in the 1956 leadership election. But after just two months, Ishibashi was out of office — and Kishi went on to define Japan’s future. While that was due to ill health, Japanese leaders can have short terms for many reasons. Ishiba must now face off internal threats and restore both party unity and its popularity to avoid a similar fate. – Bloomberg

Europe

Norwegian police have issued an international search request for Rinson Jose, a Norwegian-Indian man linked to the sale of pagers to the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah that exploded last week, they said on Thursday. – Reuters

French President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday called on the United States to pressure Israel to accept a plan for a 21-day ceasefire in Lebanon, saying an Israeli invasion would be a huge mistake. – Reuters

Elon Musk hit back at Britain on Thursday after reports that he had not been invited to the country’s upcoming investment summit, alleging the government was releasing convicted paedophiles while imprisoning people over social media posts. – Reuters

Hungary’s chief prosecutor has asked the president of the European Parliament to suspend the parliamentary immunity of Prime Minister Orban’s main political rival, MEP Peter Magyar, the prosecutor’s office said on Thursday. – Reuters

The EU Court of Justice has rejected an appeal by Catalan separatist leaders Carles Puigdemont and Toni Comin who both sought recognition as European Parliament members after being denied in June 2019, the court said on Thursday. – Reuters

North Macedonia’s conservative prime minister has reacted angrily to reports that his country’s troubled European Union accession bid hit a new hurdle because of a dispute with neighboring EU member Bulgaria. – Associated Press

New British Prime Minister Keir Starmer took the international stage at the U.N. General Assembly on Thursday for the first time with a message: His nation is returning to “responsible global leadership.” – Associated Press

Germany’s last conservative leader, Angela Merkel, built her legacy on policies normally associated with the left: saving the Euro by bailing out Greece and opening her country’s borders to hundreds of thousands of migrants. – Bloomberg

France’s new foreign minister said his country supports a European Union plan to impose tariffs on electric vehicles produced in China given the subsidies Beijing has used to maintain dominance in the sector. – Bloomberg

The UK has sanctioned five vessels and two entities linked to Russia’s liquefied natural gas exports, including tankers believed to have loaded at its newest export facility in the Arctic region. – Bloomberg

Africa

Kenya will deploy additional police officers to Haiti to help the government there fight armed gangs as part of a 2,500-strong multinational force, President William Ruto said on Thursday. – Reuters

Sudan’s army launched artillery and airstrikes in Sudan’s capital on Thursday in its biggest operation to regain ground there since early in its 17-month war with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), witnesses and military sources said. – Reuters

At least five African countries are working on what could be the world’s first joint “debt-for-nature” swap to raise at least $2 billion to protect a coral-rich swathe of Indian Ocean, according to a global conservation group. – Reuters

The head of Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces said on Thursday that the faction remained ready to implement a nationwide ceasefire in its war with the army and allow for the delivery of humanitarian aid. – Reuters

Prosecutors in junta-led Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have launched investigations against French journalist and researcher Wassim Nasr, accusing him of being an “apologist for terrorism” over his analysis of jihadist attacks. – Reuters

Senegal is in discussion with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to take corrective measures after an audit revealed that its debt and budget deficit were much wider than the previous administration had reported, the country’s economy minister said on Thursday. – Reuters

Nigeria’s military has killed dozens of leaders of armed militia groups and hundreds of fighters across the country following a renewed offensive in the third quarter of the year, a spokesperson said on Thursday. – Reuters

Uganda on Thursday commissioned its largest electricity generation plant, a 600 megawatt (MW) power plant built on the River Nile that cost $1.7 billion, financed with a loan from China. – Reuters

A regional court in East Africa opened proceedings on Thursday in a case filed by Congo against neighboring Rwanda, accusing it of violating Congo’s sovereignty and territorial integrity by sending troops to help rebels in the country’s east. – Associated Press

Shots were fired late Thursday near the presidential palace in Guinea ’s capital Conakry, and the army briefly locked down the city center and evacuated it. – Associated Press

Nathan Heath writes: Kennedy’s personal diplomacy in Guinea represents one such moment, and his administration’s tilting of Conakry from Moscow to Washington can serve as a guide to future diplomatic efforts in Africa. American involvement in Angola, by contrast, represents a tragic chapter in Washington’s engagement, with the American Cold War obsession spelling disaster, particularly through alignment with South Africa. Today, the United States has the chance to paint a much different picture, one that could perhaps help Washington deepen partnerships with regimes currently more friendly to Moscow. – War on the Rocks

The Americas

Land access to a vital supply port in the Haitian capital of Port-au-Prince is being closed off after attacks by armed gangs, operator Caribbean Port Services (CPS) said on Thursday. – Reuters

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called on Thursday for Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to engage in dialogue with the opposition following Venezuela’s contested election, adding that the U.S. was ready to support such a process. – Reuters

Peru’s government declared a 60-day state of emergency in districts around Lima on Thursday to fight a rise in crime, the nation’s prime minister Gustavo Adrianzen said, as striking bus drivers strangled traffic in a bid for more security. – Reuters

In a major climbdown, Elon Musk’s X told Brazil’s Supreme Court it had complied with orders to stop the spread of misinformation and asked a judge to lift a ban on the platform, according to a document seen by Reuters. – Reuters

Microsoft on Thursday pledged to invest 14.7 billion reais ($2.70 billion) in Brazil over three years to enhance its cloud infrastructure and artificial intelligence (AI) in Latin America’s largest economy. – Reuters

Nicolas Maduro’s Venezuela is not included on a list of prospective invitees to the BRICS bloc of emerging market countries that has circulated among the group’s members at the United Nations this week, according to three Brazilian officials familiar with the situation. – Bloomberg

Canada’s Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says she’s confident the global plan to help bankroll Ukraine’s war effort using Russian assets is moving ahead. – Politico

United States

Long before Eric Adams was charged Thursday over accusations of “corrupt relationships” with Turkish business executives and at least one official, the New York mayor was known for his sometimes eccentric connections to Turkey. – Washington Post

Donald Trump said he will visit with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday for their first meeting since 2019, as Zelensky appeals to U.S. politicians for continued American aid against Russia’s invasion. – Washington Post

U.S. efforts to secure a Gaza ceasefire remain stalled after nearly a year of fighting. Iran-backed Houthi rebels continue to attack Red Sea shipping. And now, despite intense U.S.-led diplomacy, the Israel-Hezbollah conflict threatens to flare into an all-out regional war. – Reuters

Countries around the world, including leading Arab nations, those in the G7 and the European Union, want a halt to hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Thursday. – Reuters

The rapidly escalating war in the Middle East has heightened anger at Democrats from within Michigan’s Arab American community, just over a month before a presidential election in which Vice President Kamala Harris is counting on support from within a key party constituency. – Associated Press

The US Treasury’s top international official welcomed fresh pledges from China’s leadership to bolster economic growth, while urging Beijing to follow up with meaningful actions. – Bloomberg

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump plans to meet with the new UK prime minister, Keir Starmer, as well as the president of the United Arab Emirates, according to a senior adviser, as the former president continues to hold sway with foreign leaders in the shadow of the US election. – Bloomberg

The US has accused Russia of discussing weapon transfers with Houthis, whose attacks on Red Sea shipping are holding hostage a vital commercial waterway. – Agence France-Presse

The White House Thursday announced one of its most extensive rounds of security aid for Ukraine to date, including billions of dollars in aid, another air defense system and expanded training for F-16 fighter jets, which started arriving in the country only late this summer. – Defense News

Editorial: If Biden-Harris had any true compassion, any desire for real peace and not just a three-week joke of a cease-fire for the benefit of anti-Israel voters, they’d encourage Israel to finish off the terrorists — and maybe even help. Instead, the Pentagon says the US military won’t provide intelligence or other support for Israeli operations in Lebanon. It’s beyond pitiful. But it goes a long way toward explaining why the entire world is aflame. – New York Post

Cybersecurity

British police said on Thursday they had launched an investigation into a cyberattack after passengers at the country’s major railway stations saw an Islamophobic message when they tried to use Wi-Fi services. – Reuters

The U.S. government on Thursday announced sweeping actions against two Russian nationals for their alleged role in facilitating all manner of cybercrime through money laundering and operating multiple payment and exchanges services used by criminals. – CyberScoop

A large Dallas suburb is dealing with a ransomware attack that has required help from the FBI to resolve. – The Record

Defense

The U.S. Coast Guard is watching an “uptick” in Chinese and Russian navy activity around Alaska and the northern Pacific but encounters to date have been very professional, a senior commander said on Friday. – Reuters

To protect against threats from Russia and China, U.S. Space Command needs more advanced tools to track what’s happening in space as well as satellites that can move freely in the domain by 2027, according to its commander, Gen. Stephen Whiting. – Defense News

The AUKUS alliance is open to further expanding its Pillar 2 capability areas to encompass more emerging technology categories for strategic acceleration, two senior defense officials told DefenseScoop. – DefenseScoop