Egypt Delivers Second Weapons Shipment to Somalia This Month

Latest Developments

Egypt delivered its second weapons shipment to Somalia in less than a month on September 23, signaling a potential escalation in the Horn of Africa. According to Reuters, the shipment, which was delivered by an Egyptian warship, included anti-aircraft guns and artillery. The delivery could lead to a direct clash involving Egypt, Ethiopia, Somalia, the breakaway region of Somaliland, and potentially other regional actors. 

Egypt and Somalia have grown closer this year, having both distanced themselves from neighboring Ethiopia. Tensions between Cairo and Addis Ababa are high over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) located on the Ethiopian section of the Nile River near its border with Sudan. Since construction began in 2011, Egypt has viewed the dam as a direct threat to its water supply. Despite multiple rounds of negotiations, including a U.S.-brokered effort in 2019, the parties have failed to reach a lasting agreement.

Ethiopia angered Somalia when it signed a preliminary deal in January with the breakaway region of Somaliland. This agreement allows Ethiopia to lease land for a port in exchange for possible recognition of Somaliland’s independence from Somalia. Somalia, however, sees Somaliland as a part of its territory.

In a statement reacting to the Egyptian shipment, the Somaliland government expressed concern that weapons could fall into the hands of Islamist groups like al-Shabaab.

Expert Analysis

“Egypt’s shipment of weapons to Somalia runs the risk of dangerous weapons systems, such as anti-aircraft guns and artillery, falling into the hands of al-Shabaab — al-Qaeda’s branch in East Africa. The Somali government is weak, and al-Shabaab has proven capable of overrunning Somali military bases. Additionally, Ethiopia has over 3,000 soldiers in Somalia to prevent al-Shabaab from gaining further ground. These troops may be withdrawn due to the dispute, further weakening the Somali military.” — Bill Roggio, Senior Fellow and Editor of FDD’s Long War Journal

“Egypt’s delivery of a second weapons shipment to Somalia underscores Cairo’s frustration with Ethiopia over the Nile dam. By deepening its military ties to and presence in Somalia, Egypt is signaling its readiness to confront Ethiopia militarily. This situation only heightens the security risk in the Horn of Africa.” — Mariam Wahba, FDD Research Analyst

Somaliland’s Red Sea Access and the Houthi Threat

Somaliland’s strategic Red Sea access is gaining importance in light of Houthi attacks, which have disturbed global shipping routes and cut Egypt’s Suez Canal revenue by more than 50 percent in the last 11 months. Ethiopia’s interest in leasing part of Somaliland’s coastline is notable, as it is expected to build a naval base. Somaliland officials have claimed that an Ethiopian naval base will improve maritime security in the Gulf of Aden, an area heavily impacted by attacks on commercial shipping launched by the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Related Analysis

“Egypt Deploys Troops, Weapons in Somalia, Raising Tensions in the Horn of Africa,” FDD Flash Brief

“Egypt and Ethiopia Tussle at UN Security Council as Nile Dam Tensions Escalate,” FDD Flash Brief

“Talk Like an Egyptian,” FDD Foreign Podicy Podcast