U.S. Ceasefire Call Fails to Resolve Hezbollah Threat

U.S. President Joe Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron, and other world leaders issued a joint statement on September 25 calling for a “21-day temporary ceasefire to allow diplomacy a chance to prevent further escalation across the border.” Washington, Paris, and their allies have sought a resolution between Hezbollah and Israel since October 8, 2023, but the efforts have failed to address Israel’s key security concerns, particularly the safe return of displaced civilians to the north.

With Israel currently engaged in an intensified military campaign against Hezbollah, a ceasefire at this stage would allow the group to reinvigorate and would likely fail to push Hezbollah north of the Litani River, a critical requirement for Israel’s security.

Hezbollah initiated the current aggression on October 8, a day after Hamas’s massacre in southern Israel, and exchanges of fire followed — displacing about 60,000 residents from northern Israel. In response, Israel has demanded Hezbollah’s compliance with United Nations Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1701, which mandates the group’s withdrawal north of the Litani River.

Hezbollah, however, has completely rejected any discussion of withdrawal. The group refuses to compromise regarding its military deployment in southern Lebanon or subject its strategic presence there to any political conditions. Diplomatic efforts led by the United States and France have similarly failed to enforce this withdrawal, allowing Hezbollah to remain a persistent threat.

Previous French and American proposals fell short of addressing Hezbollah’s ongoing presence at the border. The proposals sought only a limited retreat of Hezbollah’s Radwan Force, a unit purposed for the infiltration of northern Israel. But they permitted Hezbollah to maintain a presence near the border and only disallowed the return of fighters who had previously withdrawn.

Israel has now made the return of its northern civilian population a key war objective following these diplomatic failures. Last week, Israel intensified its military campaign against Hezbollah, shifting from a strategy of attrition to directly targeting Hezbollah’s assets. This campaign has been highly effective, resulting in the assassinations of key figures such as Ibrahim Akil, commander of the Radwan Unit, and Ibrahim Qubaisi, head of Hezbollah’s missile corps, along with 15 other senior commanders.

Additionally, Israel has conducted 2,000 airstrikes on Hezbollah’s positions and infrastructure, with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant claiming that “tens of thousands of rockets were destroyed” on September 23.

At this stage, calls for an immediate ceasefire jeopardize Israel’s military success by giving Hezbollah the chance to regroup and restore its communication systems, which have been severely disrupted by recent Israeli strikes, including on its pager and walkie-talkie networks.

The latest American-French proposal relies on the Lebanese government to “endorse the temporary ceasefire.” Nevertheless, Beirut has proven to be ineffective in enforcing UNSCR 1701 in the past.

As Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib put it on January 17, “Lebanon’s leadership prioritizes managing the regional risks posed by Hezbollah’s arms over facing the endless consequences of a civil war.” 

The ceasefire proposal notably avoids directly naming Hezbollah, instead referring broadly to the situation between Israel and Lebanon. This gives the false impression that the Lebanese state, heavily influenced by Hezbollah, could ensure the group’s compliance. The proposal asks Israel to agree to a ceasefire without securing any explicit commitment from Hezbollah to do the same.

Diplomatic efforts must prioritize Israel’s immediate security concerns, particularly by reducing Hezbollah’s presence along its northern border, as Israel continues to deliver significant blows to the group. Without these measures, the threat of a resurgent Hezbollah will remain.

Ahmad Sharawi is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). For more analysis from the author and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Ahmad on X @AhmadA_Sharawi. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.