Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
Heavy Israeli airstrikes target expected Hezbollah leader in Beirut IDF says it killed Hamas de facto PM – Sinwar’s right-hand man – in strike 3 months ago Iran suspected in attacks on Israeli Embassies in Sweden and Denmark Weakened Iran raises fears it may make push for nuclear arms George Mason University’s David Ramadan: Hezbollah’s collapse heralds the end of an era of fear in Lebanon Houthis' email alert to Red Sea ships: Prepare for attack, with best regards North Korea leader Kim threatens nuclear response if sovereignty breached, KCNA says WSJ’s Joseph C. Sternberg: If stimulus could save China, it wouldn’t need it EU governments face pivotal vote on Chinese EV tariffs WSJ Editorial: Someone tries to govern France Biden sidelined as Israel reshapes Middle East US will spend $1.2 billion to restock arms after Iran, Houthi attacksIn The News
Israel
Israel has landed a string of blows in its escalating war with Hezbollah, leaving it shellshocked and putting its backer Iran in a bind. – Wall Street Journal
The Israeli military urged civilians in more than 20 towns and villages across southern Lebanon to leave their homes, expanding its evacuation warnings in the country as it intensifies its campaign to push militant group Hezbollah back from its border. – Wall Street Journal
The Israeli military said on Thursday that it rescued a 21-year-old Yazidi woman who had been held in captivity in the Gaza Strip after being captured by ISIS in Iraq as a child more than a decade ago, describing the operation as a “complex operation” involving the United States, Jordan and others. – New York Times
The United Nations Security Council on Thursday expressed its full support for Secretary-General Antonio Guterres after Israel’s foreign minister said he was barring him from entering the country. – Reuters
Israel has killed Abdel-Aziz Salha, a West Bank Hamas militant who had been jailed for life for taking part in the lynching of two Israeli reservists in Ramallah in 2000 but later deported to Gaza in a prisoner swap, Hamas media and medics said. – Reuters
Former French president Nicolas Sarkozy stated in a French media interview that if France were in a situation like Israel’s, it would respond in a similar way to how Israel has in its war against Hamas and Hezbollah. – Jerusalem Post
Senior Hamas official Rawhi Mushtaha, the de facto prime minister of the Gaza Strip, was killed in an Israeli strike several months ago, the IDF and Shin Bet said Thursday, announcing that they had confirmed his death. – Times of Israel
Editorial: It’s always amazed us that a state midwifed by the UN has now become the object of its darkest sentiments. As is often the case, in any event, Israel has been tearing the mask off of the face of the UN — exposing the world body in all its ugliness. Having no effect over world affairs, Mr. Guterres spends most of his time tilting at diplomatic windmills. His reduction by Israel to persona non grata is a fitting coda for his career, reflecting a reality widely recognized. – New York Sun
Liz Hirsh Naftali writes: The release of the remaining hostages, liberated through the kind of agreement between enemies that saved Abigail, can become the basis for a more humane future in the Middle East. That might seem unlikely now. But a year ago, with her parents murdered and her community under attack, Abigail’s survival seemed equally unlikely. Today she is living evidence of what is still possible and why even the slim chances of another hostage deal can’t be ignored. Time is running out to save them. – Wall Street Journal
Dan Zamansky writes: With their direct military contribution to Israel’s defense minimal, the leading nations of the West are stuck in a loop, in which they continue to highlight their own irrelevance and impotence. On 24 September, the G7 called “for a stop to the current destructive cycle.” […] The message is clear. Israel’s survival is Israel’s problem, and the West has no answer to anything, no desire other than to keep rolling forward in neutral gear. This cannot and will not continue for long. – Ynet
Iran
Gulf Arab states sought to reassure Iran of their neutrality in the conflict between Tehran and Israel in meetings in Doha this week on the back of concerns that a wider escalation in violence could threaten their oil facilities, two sources told Reuters. – Reuters
Iran views the Group of Seven (G7) condemnation of its attack on Israel as “biased and irresponsible”, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said on Thursday. – Reuters
Airlines are largely avoiding Iranian airspace in their flights over the Middle East, according to flight tracker FlightRadar24, lengthening flight times and hiking up fuel costs as worries over a retaliatory attack from Israel targeting Iran grow. – Reuters
A consultant working for Iran’s Revolutionary Guards has died from injuries sustained in an Israeli air attack on the Syrian capital Damascus on Monday, Iran’s Student News Network reported on Thursday. – Reuters
Intelligence officials in Sweden say that they believe Iran is behind a series of attacks near the Israeli Embassies in Sweden and Denmark in recent days. – New York Sun
Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is set to lead Friday prayers and deliver a public sermon that could shed light on the Islamic republic’s plans after a massive missile attack on enemy Israel. – Agence France-Presse
Iran resumed flights at its airports on Thursday, state media said, after a brief suspension following its missile attack on Israel. – Agence France-Presse
But those setbacks may have an unintended and dangerous consequence, according to current and former government officials in the US, Israel and the Arab world. They fear that Iran, backed into a corner and feeling more threatened, may speed up its nuclear advances and pursue atomic weapons. – Bloomberg
Marc Champion writes: Israel will likely focus on non-nuclear targets; this time, perhaps Iran’s air defenses and missile launchers, or its energy structure. Whether that will achieve much more than a further round of escalatory strikes is unclear. Yet the die seems cast. Israel will retaliate to this week’s missile attack, and Tehran will likely follow through on its threats to respond. An Iranian nuclear breakout, and an Israeli strike to prevent it, have drawn closer. – Bloomberg
Alex Vatanka writes: But what Khamenei has never accepted in practice is that any Iranian olive branch in the nuclear arena is unlikely to result in meaningful détente with the West as long as Tehran continues to see the end of Israel as a core item on its regional agenda. This is the painful choice the regime in Tehran faces, and it will not go away even if the latest round of tensions somehow miraculously wraps up without a wider regional conflict. – The National Interest
Russia & Ukraine
The Jaguar, a tanker the length of nearly five Olympic-size swimming pools, left a port near St. Petersburg, Russia, last year, bound for India and loaded with Russian oil. – New York Times
Ukraine’s armed forces commander General Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Thursday he had ordered defences to be strengthened in the eastern Donetsk region, a day after Kyiv forces announced they had withdrawn from the town of Vuhledar. – Reuters
Russian forces intercepted a Ukrainian drone on Thursday near the Russian town of Kurchatov but there was no damage to the nearby Kursk nuclear power plant, the regional governor said. – Reuters
Russian forces launched a major drone attack overnight on 15 Ukrainian regions, causing damage to energy infrastructure and residential buildings, authorities said on Thursday. – Reuters
The current confrontation between Russia and the West over Ukraine is unparalleled in history and a mistake could lead to catastrophe, a senior Russian diplomat said on Thursday when asked about comparisons to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. – Reuters
The trial of a 72-year-old American man whom Russia accuses of working as a mercenary for Ukraine will take place behind closed doors and the verdict will be announced next Monday, Russian state media reported. – Reuters
The Ukrainian military said on Thursday it had used ATACMS ballistic missiles to strike a Russian radar station to reduce Moscow’s ability “to detect, track and intercept aerodynamic and ballistic targets”. – Reuters
Elizabeth Hoffman writes: Allowing Ukraine to use Western weapons to strike inside Russia, increasing training opportunities, granting permissions for U.S. military contractors to operate inside Ukraine, tightening sanctions, and continuing to articulate support for Ukraine’s victory doesn’t come with a price tag. But these moves could be invaluable in ensuring Ukraine wins the war against Russian aggression. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
Hezbollah
Israel targeted Hezbollah’s likely successor to slain leader Hassan Nasrallah with heavy airstrikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs Friday, as it continues to try to dismantle the Lebanese militant group’s leadership structure. – Wall Street Journal
Over 100 Hezbollah operatives have been killed and around 200 terror targets have been struck over the past day during Israel’s joint ground and air assault on Hezbollah in Lebanon, according to reports on Israeli media on Thursday. – Jerusalem Post
David Ramadan writes: The path ahead will not be easy, but it is clear that the old narratives are dead. A new chapter must be written — one that prioritizes Lebanon’s stability, sovereignty and the well-being of its people above all else. The end of the era of Hezbollah dominance is here. What comes next is up to the people of Lebanon. The Arab world and the West can help only after the Lebanese help themselves. – The Hill
Lebanon
Civilians are bearing the brunt of a “truly catastrophic” situation in Lebanon, a senior U.N. official said, urging respect for the rules of war nearly two weeks since Israel launched a major offensive against the armed group Hezbollah. – Reuters
United Nations peacekeepers in southern Lebanon remain in place – despite Israel asking them to move – and provide the only communications link between the countries’ militaries, the U.N. peacekeeping chief said on Thursday. – Reuters
At least 28 on-duty medics have been killed in the past 24 hours in Lebanon, where Israel has launched airstrikes and sent troops to fight Hezbollah in an escalating conflict, the World Health Organization chief said on Thursday. – Reuters
The World Bank announced on Thursday that it was redirecting funds originally earmarked for development programs in Lebanon toward emergency aid for people displaced by Israeli bombardment of the country. – Agence France-Presse
David Ignatius writes: But rebuilding the Lebanese state behind a strong army — supported by a population that is sick of Hezbollah’s violent fantasy of resistance — is an achievable goal. It will require disciplined American effort and political will. But it’s a worthy task for Joe Biden’s final months in office and for his successor. – Washington Post
Middle East & North Africa
The message, which was also sent to the manager’s business email address, warned that one of the company’s vessels travelling through the Red Sea was at risk of being attacked by Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi militia. – Reuters
The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could have significant economic ramifications for the region and the global economy, but commodity prices remain below the highs of the past year. – Reuters
Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani said on Thursday said the crisis in the Middle East is a “collective genocide” and that his country has always warned of Israel’s “impunity”. – Reuters
A Turkish seismic research vessel plans to arrive off the coast of Somalia at the end of October and begin searching for oil and natural gas, after the countries agreed on energy cooperation, Turkey’s energy ministry said on Thursday. – Reuters
A Tunisian appeal court on Thursday upheld an 18-month prison sentence handed down to presidential candidate Ayachi Zammel, his lawyer said, two days before the vote is held. – Reuters
With his major opponents imprisoned or left off the ballot, Tunisian President Kais Saied faces few obstacles to winning reelection on Sunday, five years after riding anti-establishment backlash to a first term. – Associated Press
The crowd of several hundred men, women and children roared as speakers took turns to praise Hamas commanders and other Iran-backed militants like Hezbollah. […] The scene in the Jordanian capital of Amman is a near daily occurrence nowadays, and it encapsulates the dilemma facing Israel’s neighbors as the Middle East stands on the brink of a widening war. – Bloomberg
Korean Peninsula
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said the country would not hesitate to use all available offensive forces including nuclear weapons if the enemy attempted to use force to encroach on its sovereignty, state news agency KCNA reported on Friday. – Reuters
North Korea’s Kim Yo Jong, the powerful sister of leader Kim Jong Un, criticised a military parade, held in Seoul for its Armed Forces Day this week and called it a “clown show”, in a statement carried by state media KCNA on Thursday. – Reuters
Ju Hyung Kim writes: Japan is therefore expected to provide an unprecedented level of operational support to U.S. forces in a second Korean War. If Pyongyang’s leadership fully understands this, they may attempt to create divisions not only between the United States and South Korea, and the United States and Japan, but also between Japan and South Korea. Strengthening the trilateral alliance between the United States, Japan, and South Korea — and reinforcing the weakest link, Japanese-South Korean relations — is thus crucial. – War on the Rocks
China
A sharp drop in venture-capital funding for Chinese startups is leading Beijing to be more involved in grooming the country’s tech industry, a strategy that threatens to handicap China’s efforts to catch up with Western technologies in the long run. – Wall Street Journal
Some Chinese and global institutional investors are revisiting Chinese property bonds, betting on an improvement in outlook as the government accelerates efforts to boost economic growth and revive a property sector in the throes of a debt crisis. – Reuters
Chinese investment-grade companies are lining up $10 billion to $15 billion in offshore bond offerings this quarter, as Beijing’s economic stimulus measures cut fundraising costs and whip up borrowers’ appetites, financial advisers said. – Reuters
Joseph C. Sternberg writes: The political controls on the economy that created this situation aren’t going away under Mr. Xi and will thwart the Keynesians’ longed-for virtuous circle. Any new money funneled into consumption will land in a business ecosystem facing the same financial-political inhibitions on productive investment as before. A paradox: If China were capable of benefiting from a new spending stimulus, the economy wouldn’t need one. – Wall Street Journal
South Asia
Indian Trade Minister Piyush Goyal and U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo signed an agreement on Thursday to cooperate on strengthening supply chains in the two countries for lithium, cobalt and other critical minerals used in electric vehicles and clean energy applications. – Reuters
Sri Lanka plans to move ahead with the third review of its nearly $3 billion programme of support from the International Monetary Fund, the new government said on Thursday, as the island nation seeks to emerge from its worst financial crisis in decades. – Reuters
Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is set to arrive in Bangladesh on Friday for talks primarily focused on labour issues, according to Dhaka officials. – Reuters
The prime ministers of Malaysia and Pakistan agreed in talks Thursday to increase bilateral trade and boost economic ties between their nations. – Associated Press
Asia
A former government minister in Singapore was sentenced to one year in prison on Thursday in a rare graft case that has transfixed the affluent city-state. – New York Times
Tropical Storm Krathon slammed into Taiwan’s populous southwestern coast on Thursday, the authorities said, bringing torrential rain and heavy winds that have caused landslides, floods and power outages. Two people had been killed and over 200 have been injured. – New York Times
Australian authorities said on Friday they would deploy more police personnel and tighten security measures ahead of pro-Palestine rallies in Sydney and Melbourne on Oct. 6, warning protesters there would be no tolerance of violence. – Reuters
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba formally instructed his cabinet on Friday to compile a fresh economic package to cushion the blow to households from rising living costs, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said. – Reuters
The Philippines expressed concerns on Thursday over media reports alleging foreign covert operations in the country, saying it is coordinating with relevant agencies to address the matter. – Reuters
Australia has organised hundreds of airline seats for its citizens to leave Lebanon, Foreign Minister Penny Wong said on Thursday, as she urged the many thousands of Australians that remain in Lebanon to leave the country while they still can. – Reuters
Gearoid Reidy writes: But Ishiba will discover that his supply of capital with the public will run out quickly if he offers no break from his predecessor. It’s not enough to simply be anti-Shinzo Abe. Ishiba was chosen due to the party’s desire for change. As he seeks a broader mandate in the general election later this month, he must stake out his position. Popular dissatisfaction with the LDP won’t be fixed if he offers business as usual. – Bloomberg
Europe
On Thursday, the British government struck a deal with Mauritius, an island country off East Africa, to hand over a cluster of 58 tiny islands in the Indian Ocean known as the Chagos archipelago, ending a protracted battle over the U.K.’s last remaining African overseas territory. – Wall Street Journal
The British government has chartered a limited number of flights to support its citizens to leave Lebanon, it said on Thursday, repeating its advice for them to leave the country immediately. – Reuters
The European Commission announced on Thursday an extra 30 million euros ($33.1 million) in humanitarian aid for Lebanon, which has been hit by clashes between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah. – Reuters
Pro-Kremlin forces are meddling in Moldova’s upcoming presidential election by paying off tens of thousands of voters in a sweeping plot to derail Chisinau’s bid for closer European Union ties, police said on Thursday. – Reuters
European Union members face a pivotal vote on Friday on whether to impose tariffs of up to 45% on imports of Chinese-made electric vehicles in the bloc’s highest profile trade case, which risks retaliation from Beijing. – Reuters
Thousands of protesters marched in Vienna on Thursday to urge Austria’s political parties, particularly the ruling conservatives, not to go into government with the far-right Freedom Party (FPO) after it won a general election for the first time on Sunday. – Reuters
NATO chief Mark Rutte told Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy “your security matters for ours” on Thursday during his first visit to Kyiv since becoming the alliance’s secretary-general. – Reuters
Belarusian Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov said allegations of crimes against humanity by his country, which Lithuania has asked the International Criminal Court (ICC) to investigate, were absurd, Russian state news agency RIA reported on Thursday. – Reuters
Two Swedish teenagers were charged on Thursday with possessing five hand grenades and detonating, two of them on a rooftop near Israel’s embassy in Copenhagen, and were remanded in custody. – Reuters
Kosovo’s prime minister said Thursday that the Balkan region has enjoyed the greatest degree of peace, freedom and democracy over the past 25 years but that this could be reversed if Russia prevails in Ukraine and encourages Serbian expansion. – Associated Press
The European Union announced on Thursday that it is taking Hungary’s right-wing government to court over laws that could allow the authorities to investigate and prosecute people accused of undermining the country’s sovereignty. – Associated Press
The European Union’s nominee to be its first-ever defense commissioner said the bloc must scale up its military capabilities for a possible confrontation with Russia that could be as few as six years away. – Bloomberg
Two Belgian journalists were injured in Lebanon while reporting on overnight air raids in Beirut, their employer said Thursday, as fighting raged between Israel and Hezbollah. – Agence France-Presse
France on Thursday condemned Israel’s move to declare UN chief Antonio Guterres “persona non grata,” saying the decision was “unjustified.” – Times of Israel
Editorial: Mr. Barnier will justify his cuts by pointing to European Union fiscal rules limiting the deficit to 3% of GDP and debt to 60% of GDP—targets France will be years away from meeting even after his budget. Voters care more about their own well-being than about EU budget targets. France keeps waiting for someone to propose fiscal and regulatory policies that can revive its moribund economy. Until someone does, expect messy political battles over the budget, and much more. – Wall Street Journal
Africa
Kenya’s government has asked the International Monetary Fund to conduct an official assessment of corruption and governance issues, two sources familiar with the situation told Reuters, after a push by Western nations. – Reuters
The United States and four other countries discussed the need to finalize plans for the new African Union stabilization and support mission in Somalia, the U.S. Department of State said in a statement on Thursday. – Reuters
Kenya’s Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua on Thursday filed a petition to the high court in Nairobi seeking to halt an impeachment process launched against him by lawmakers earlier this week, documents showed. – Reuters
South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir has dismissed the country’s long-serving intelligence chief, replacing him with a close ally, state broadcaster SSBC reported, citing a presidential decree. – Reuters
Tanzania’s communications regulator has suspended the digital platforms of a local media company over the publication of what it called restricted content, a move one opposition group said was aimed at muzzling media that is critical of the government. – Reuters
South Africa’s Constitutional Court said Thursday that it would hear a case next month brought by two opposition parties to revive impeachment proceedings against President Cyril Ramaphosa over a scandal involving more than $500,000 in cash that was hidden in a couch at his ranch and then stolen. – Associated Press
The Americas
Over the past year, an Argentinian rock radio station has twice had its antenna wrecked. Short circuits have fried gear left and right, and relentless power outages — sometimes hitting twice a day — have plunged TAXI FM into sudden silence. – Washington Post
Mexican authorities arrested soldiers who were part of a patrol that opened fire on a pickup truck killing six migrants, federal prosecutors said on Thursday, two days after the incident. – Reuters
Mexico’s Supreme Court agreed on Thursday to consider a constitutional challenge to the controversial judicial overhaul enacted last month that will move the country over the next few years to a system of popularly elected judges. – Reuters
At least 11 people were killed and dozens injured in an overnight attack in a Haitian town led by the Gran Grif gang, local newspaper Le Nouvelliste reported on Thursday, as powerful armed gangs expand their influence from the capital. – Reuters
Caribbean leaders hope that Britain under its new Labour government might shift its long-standing position on slavery reparations and agree to discuss how to address past wrongs and their current day legacy. – Reuters
Guatemala’s Congress selected the 13 new justices of the Supreme Court Thursday in a closely observed process that critics say failed to rid the court of the influence of powerful interests. – Associated Press
Alfredo Ferrero writes: The future of U.S. leadership in Latin America depends almost exclusively on its commitment to the region. To address the challenges of migration, transnational organized crime and illicit industries that undermine democratic institutions and governance, the U.S. needs to strengthen its ties with regional partners by reinforcing its economic relationships based on existing trade agreements. Lasting and mutually beneficial alliances can be built upon this foundation, similar to the ones that currently support U.S. global interests in Europe and Asia. – The Hill
United States
As Israel prepares a retaliatory strike against Iran, the Biden administration increasingly resembles a spectator, with limited insight into what its closest Middle East ally is planning—and lessened influence over its decisions. – Wall Street Journal
The United States economy is suddenly staring down an array of new and potentially damaging crises, with tensions flaring in the Middle East, port workers striking on the East and Gulf Coasts and several states grappling with fallout from a devastating hurricane. – New York Times
U.S. President Joe Biden said he did not believe there is going to be an “all-out war” in the Middle East, as Israel weighs options for retaliation after Tehran’s largest ever assault on its arch-enemy. – Reuters
The Biden administration believes it is appropriate for Israel to continue with its ground and air attacks on Hezbollah for now, U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said on Thursday, even as he acknowledged the risk of the operation in Lebanon expanding beyond Israel’s current aims. – Reuters
The chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee urged President Joe Biden on Thursday to speed up weapons shipments to Israel, including 2000-pound (907 kg) bombs that have been held up for months over human rights concerns. – Reuters
The governor of Michigan has urged the U.S. government to do more to rescue Americans, many of them from Michigan, stuck in Lebanon amid Israel’s military offensive in the country. – Reuters
Steven Stalinsky writes: For nearly a year, American supporters of Hamas and Hezbollah have been freely promoting terrorism, often targeting and trying to intimidate the nation’s Jewish communities. Jewish student groups on college campuses have been attacked, as have Jewish-owned private businesses, synagogues and nonprofits across the country. It’s past time that these people are exposed and their activities condemned and investigated. – Wall Street Journal
Bret Stephens writes: And it means to embrace — often as a thoughtful critic but never as a hateful scold — the great, complicated, essential project of a Jewish state. To imagine we can do without it is to forget how close we came to extinction before it was born. Oct. 7 shook our illusions and reawakened us to where we stand as a diasporic community. Now we must reckon with who we are and what we must do. – New York Times
Cybersecurity
Google said on Friday it will stop linking to New Zealand news articles and ditch the agreements it has with local news organisations, if the country’s government goes ahead with a law to force tech giants to pay a fair price for content that appears on their feeds. – Reuters
Microsoft and the U.S. Department of Justice on Thursday announced the seizure of more than 100 domains used by a Russian-backed hacking unit to target more than two dozen civil society organizations between January 2023 and August 2024. – CyberScoop
North Korean government hackers have targeted several Southeast Asian countries — even perceived allies like Cambodia — with a malware campaign over the last year designed to create backdoors into systems at important organizations. – The Record
Chinese social media giant TikTok is “more dangerous” to Ukraine in terms of spreading Russian propaganda and disinformation than the Russia-founded messaging app Telegram, according to Alina Aleksieeva, the deputy head of Ukraine’s State Center for Countering Disinformation (CPD). – The Record
Defense
The Pentagon will spend about $1.2 billion to maintain ships deployed as part of operations in the Red Sea and to replenish stocks of missiles fired to repel attacks by Iran and its proxies, according to new budget documents. – Bloomberg
Senior members of the House Armed Services Committee are calling on the Navy to detail the problems discovered with welding on submarines and aircraft carriers assembled at HII’s Newport News Shipbuilding, according to a Thursday letter to Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro obtained by USNI News. – USNI News
The National Guard said Thursday it has fanned out across states and communities hard hit by Hurricane Helene but warned that recovery from the deadly storm will take time. – Military.com