Targeting Taiwan: Beijing’s Playbook for Economic and Cyber Warfare

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The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) aims to “reintegrate Taiwan,” effectively stripping the Taiwanese people of their de facto independence. Achieving this takeover with minimal military action and limited long-term damage to Taiwan’s infrastructure and economy would offer the CCP substantial economic, diplomatic, and military advantages. A well-executed, well-resourced, and well-timed cyber-enabled economic coercion campaign could provide the CCP with such an opportunity.

To explore these threats, a delegation of FDD experts recently visited Taiwan to conduct war games and tabletop exercises (TTXs). These simulations were designed to evaluate the most salient and dangerous threat scenarios posed by the CCP to the Taiwanese people. The TTX involved 20 participants, primarily from Taiwanese banking and finance sectors, who simulated the roles of senior policymakers in Taiwan, the United States, and China. They assessed the most likely and perilous actions the CCP could take to isolate and coerce Taiwan short of outright war

The TTX produced several key recommendations to enhance economic, cyber, and societal resilience, and offered insights into how the United States and its allies can support Taiwan in its struggle for autonomy. To discuss these findings, FDD’s Craig Singleton and RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery are joined by Ti-Chen Chen of the Taiwan Academy of Banking and Finance and Ben Jensen of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Lili Pike of Foreign Policy will moderate the discussion and FDD Founder and President Cliff May, who headed the delegation to Taiwan, will deliver introductory remarks.

Craig Singleton

Craig Singleton is the director of FDD’s China Program as well as a senior fellow, where he analyzes great power competition with China. He previously spent more than a decade serving in a series of sensitive national security roles with the U.S. government, where he primarily focused on East Asia. In that capacity, Craig regularly briefed federal law enforcement, U.S. military personnel, foreign governments, congressional oversight committees, and the White House on a wide range of issues, including China’s overseas military expansion, Chinese malign influence, and North Korea. Craig is a regular contributor to numerus notable news outlets. He received his bachelor’s degree in political science from the University of Florida and his master’s degree in international policy from the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University.

RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery

RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery serves as the senior director of the Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation, where he leads FDD’s efforts to advance U.S. prosperity and security through technology innovation while countering cyber threats that seek to diminish them. Mark also directs CSC 2.0, and before that as executive director for the Cyberspace Solarium Commission Previously, Mark served as policy director for the Senate Armed Services Committee under the leadership of Senator John S. McCain, coordinating policy efforts on national security strategy, capabilities and requirements, and cyber policy. Mark served for 32 years in the U.S. Navy as a nuclear-trained surface warfare officer, retiring as a rear admiral in 2017.

Ti-Chen Chen

Ti-Chen Chen is the Deputy Director at Taiwan Academy of Banking and Finance. She previously served as Project Manager of Financial Training and Development Center at Taiwan Institute of Financial Research and Training, and she at the Zhiyuan International Financial Management Consulting Company (Ernst & Young) Financial Engineering Department. She has degrees from the Financial Management Department at National Chengchi University and the Institute of Accounting at National Cheng Kung University.

Benjamin Jensen

Benjamin Jensen is a senior fellow for Futures Lab in the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). He is also a professor of strategic studies at the Marine Corps University School of Advanced Warfighting. Dr. Jensen has spent the last decade researching the changing character of political violence, technology, and strategy. He has worked with the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), Marine Corps Warfighting Lab, NATO, the U.S. Army, and a range of government agencies and foundations to develop wargames and scenario-driven exercises exploring strategy, defense analysis, crisis response, military planning, and complex emergencies.

Lili Pike

Lili Pike is a reporter at Foreign Policy covering U.S.-China relations, China’s foreign affairs, and the country’s response to climate change. Before joining FP, she reported on China and climate change at Grid, Vox, Inside Climate News, and China Dialogue. She is a graduate of Harvard University and New York University, where she received a master’s in science journalism. A native of California’s San Francisco Bay Area, she lived in Beijing for four years and is fluent in Mandarin Chinese.

Clifford D. May

Clifford D. May is the founder and president of FDD. Under his leadership, FDD has become one of the nation’s most highly regarded think tanks and a sought-after voice on a wide range of national security issues. Cliff has had a long and distinguished career in international relations, journalism, communications, and politics. A veteran news reporter, foreign correspondent and editor, he has covered stories around the world. From 2016 to 2018, Cliff served as a commissioner on the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF), an independent, bipartisan U.S. federal government commission that makes policy recommendations to the President, the Secretary of State, and Congress in order to advance the pivotal right of religious freedom around the world, and integrate religious freedom into America’s foreign policy.