October 3, 2024 | FDD Tracker: September 7, 2024-October 3, 2024
Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: October
October 3, 2024 | FDD Tracker: September 7, 2024-October 3, 2024
Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: October
Trend Overview
Welcome back to the Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker. Once a month, we ask FDD’s experts and scholars to assess the administration’s foreign policy. They provide trendlines of very positive, positive, neutral, negative, or very negative for the areas they watch.
Israel took matters into its own hands to address the Hezbollah threat and enable its internally displaced citizens to return to their homes. Following airstrikes and covert operations that devastated Hezbollah’s leadership and military capabilities, Israeli forces launched a limited ground invasion in southern Lebanon. Iran, meanwhile, has appeared powerless to protect its chief regional proxy. A retaliatory barrage of Iranian ballistic missiles largely failed to hurt the Jewish state, which received U.S. assistance in downing the missiles. Jerusalem has vowed to strike back against Iran, whose military is ill equipped for further confrontation with Israel. The Biden administration has continued to express support for Israel’s right to self-defense while pushing for restraint and de-escalation.
During a visit to the United States, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented his “victory plan” to President Joe Biden and both presidential candidates. Amid growing pressure to seek peace talks and uncertainty regarding future U.S. assistance, Kyiv wants its Western backers to surge support in the coming months, strengthening Ukraine’s hand. Zelenskyy left Washington with pledges for additional U.S. aid but without consensus on some key questions, including the matter of long-range strikes in Russia. One gets the sense that America’s Ukraine strategy remains adrift.
Check back next month to see how the administration deals with these and other challenges.
Trending Neutral
Trending Negative
Trending Very Negative
China
Trending Neutral
Previous Trend:NeutralAs the Biden-Harris administration enters its final months, U.S.-China relations remain strained, though there have been some positive developments. Following National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s visit to Beijing in late August, China unexpectedly released American pastor David Lin, who had been wrongfully detained for 18 years. It is unclear what concessions, if any, Washington made to secure his freedom. While Lin’s release is welcome news, over 200 U.S. nationals remain wrongfully detained in China, reduced to geopolitical pawns with no end in sight.
Meanwhile, the United States and China made incremental progress in re-establishing military communication channels. Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, spoke with General Wu Yanan, commander of China’s Southern Theater, marking the first formal engagement between U.S. and Chinese regional military leaders in years. A U.S. delegation also traveled to Beijing for the 18th iteration of the Defense Policy Coordination Talks, part of an effort to rebuild dialogue severed after then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 visit to Taiwan.
Nevertheless, history suggests China will not use these military-to-military channels to mitigate the risk of accidents or miscalculation. While Washington sees military hotlines as a means to facilitate deconfliction and de-escalation, Beijing fears they could be used to normalize America’s military presence in Chinese-claimed areas. Moreover, Beijing likely views the current military tensions not as a problem to solve but rather as leverage. By raising tensions, China seeks to amplify uncertainty to hinder U.S. decision making and demand a disproportionate price for concessions on unrelated issues, with minimal benefits for U.S. strategic interests.
Cyber
Trending Positive
Previous Trend:NeutralThe Biden administration took significant steps in September against Russian, Chinese, and Iranian malicious cyber activity.
The Justice Department seized dozens of websites that supported covert Russian malign influence operations. The department also indicted two employees of Russia’s state-run media outlet RT for funneling money to an American media front. The Treasury Department sanctioned 10 individuals and two entities engaged in “malign influence efforts targeting the 2024 U.S. presidential election,” and the State Department designated RT, Sputnik, and their parent company for engaging in “information operations, covert influence, and military procurement.”
Separately, Washington and nine U.S. allies issued an advisory and a superseding indictment attributing prior cyberattacks to Russia and providing public information on Russian malware. U.S. and European law enforcement also sanctioned, indicted, and dismantled a Russian virtual currency exchange engaged in criminal activity. In addition, the FBI dismantled a vast Chinese botnet conducting cyber operations against U.S. critical infrastructure.
After confirming that Iran hacked the Trump campaign last month, the Biden administration promptly sanctioned and indicted the hackers. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency provided additional information about adversarial efforts to influence voter behavior, but confirmed election infrastructure remains secure.
In other positive developments, the State Department is providing increased cyber assistance to U.S. partners; the Commerce Department proposed a ban on Chinese and Russian internet-connected automotive components; and the Office of the National Cyber Director issued a comprehensive roadmap to secure internet infrastructure.
The Pentagon, however, is attempting to stymie several congressional efforts to improve the efficacy of military cyber capabilities.
Defense
Trending Neutral
Previous Trend:PositiveAs the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah escalated in September, the Biden administration bolstered the U.S. military presence in the region. The USS Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group departed for the Eastern Mediterranean on September 23. Two days after Israel killed longtime Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon on September 27, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin directed the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group and the USS Wasp Amphibious Ready Group and its embarked Marine Expeditionary Unit to remain in the region. And on September 30, the Pentagon announced the deployment of additional squadrons of F-15s, F-16s, A-10s, and F-22s.
On September 30, Austin and his Israeli counterpart discussed “serious consequences” for Iran if it conducted “a direct military attack against Israel,” according to a Pentagon readout. The United States has the combat power in the region to make good on that commitment now that Iran has directly attacked Israel again. Whether Washington has the political will is another question.
On September 26, President Biden announced a major security assistance package for Ukraine, but the president has yet to support Kyiv’s request to use Western missiles to strike targets deep inside Russia.
Meanwhile, the administration announced on September 27 a plan to end the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS’s military mission in Iraq by September 2025. While the plan for the ultimate U.S. military posture in Iraq remains murky and the next administration will obviously have a say, it appears Biden has learned little from the disastrous results of the timeline-based, conditions-ignoring U.S. military withdrawals from Iraq and Afghanistan in 2011 and 2021, respectively.
Europe and Russia
Trending Neutral
Previous Trend:NeutralAmid growing pressure to seek peace talks with Russia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented his “victory plan” to President Biden and the two presidential candidates during a visit to the United States in late September. Zelenskyy bills the plan as a way to strengthen Ukraine’s position in the coming months such that Moscow becomes willing to accept a “fair and just” peace settlement.
Ahead of his meeting with Zelenskyy, Biden vowed to “surge” aid for Ukraine during his remaining time in office. The president announced a $2.4 billion package under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), which allows the Pentagon to procure materiel for Kyiv. Biden directed the Pentagon to allocate its remaining USAI funding by year’s end.
The administration also notified Congress of its intent to utilize $5.55 billion in Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), under which Washington donates materiel from existing U.S. stocks. This aid will be delivered gradually, but the notification prevented the authority from expiring on September 30. Biden pledged to give Kyiv an additional Patriot air defense battery and interceptors and to expand training for Ukrainian F-16 pilots.
The day prior, the administration announced a $375 million PDA package. It included the AMG-154 Joint Standoff Weapon, which will expand Ukraine’s precision-strike capabilities. This followed a $250 million PDA package unveiled on September 6.
These aid announcements notwithstanding, Zelenskyy left Washington without consensus on key strategic questions, including the thorny issue of NATO membership. Biden also offered no indication he would grant Kyiv’s longstanding request to use Western missiles to strike inside Russia.
Gulf
Trending Positive
Previous Trend:PositivePresident Biden received his Emirati counterpart, Mohamed bin Zayed, at the White House on September 23. After their meeting, the two leaders issued a statement that highlighted the importance of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), which will connect India to the Mediterranean through the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabi, Jordan, and Israel. IMEC is emerging as an alternative to the trade route through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which now sits at the mercy of the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen.
Vice President Kamala Harris also huddled with the Emirati guest. According to a White House readout, Harris reiterated Biden’s appreciation for Abu Dhabi’s “close partnership with the United States on advanced technology … as well as our shared efforts on strategic investments, diversifying supply chains, and space exploration.” Harris and bin Zayed also “discussed the importance of continued coordination to bring” the war in Gaza “to an end and plan for the Day After,” the readout said. This affirms earlier indications that Washington hopes the United Arab Emirates will play an instrumental role in rebuilding Gaza and reforming and modernizing the Palestinian government after the war.
While in Washington, the Emirati president also met with Cabinet members and senators, including lawmakers who had previously voted against arms sales to Abu Dhabi. The meeting signals a thaw in relations between the Emiratis and some factions on Capitol Hill.
Indo-Pacific
Trending Neutral
Previous Trend:NegativePresident Biden hosted a farewell meeting with fellow “Quad” leaders — Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida — near his hometown of Wilmington. They announced new security initiatives in the Indian Ocean, including joint coast guard operations with Australian, Japanese, and Indian personnel aboard a U.S. Coast Guard vessel, as well as enhanced military logistics cooperation. They also pledged to provide critical and emerging technologies, such as a new open radio access network, to the Pacific Islands and Southeast Asia, underscoring these regions’ strategic importance. These developments signal that Washington’s Indo-Pacific focus, initiated under the Trump administration, will likely continue beyond Biden’s presidency.
The new Quad maritime initiative came as China has intensified pressure on its rivals in the South and East China Seas. Chinese forces have repeatedly rammed Philippine Coast Guard vessels at the contested Second Thomas and Sabina shoals, exacerbating regional tensions. The Biden administration has responded with strong rhetoric, emphasizing that America will “do what is necessary to support the Philippines.” But the administration’s actions have yet to match its words, undermining deterrence of China’s aggressive behavior.
Meanwhile, China’s decision to test-fire an intercontinental ballistic missile in the South Pacific — its first such test in over 40 years — caught U.S. allies Japan, Australia, and New Zealand by surprise. The test not only underscores China’s enhanced long-range nuclear capabilities but likely also signals Beijing’s intent to escalate regional tensions during the U.S. election season, possibly seeking to probe American resolve amidst competing global crises.
International Organizations
Trending Very Negative
Previous Trend:Very NegativeThe Biden administration offered political support for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) just before the head of its teachers union in Lebanon was exposed as a senior Hamas terrorist. News outlets reported that the Department of Justice intervened in a federal lawsuit against UNRWA filed by victims of the October 7 massacre, urging a judge to dismiss the case on grounds that UNRWA is immune from civil litigation. On September 21, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said the administration continues “to support the essential role that UNRWA plays, and therefore support funding for UNRWA” — despite a congressional law prohibiting U.S. funding for the organization through March 2025. Only Congress can fully proscribe U.S. funding for UNRWA by making the ban permanent.
On September 21, the administration issued a joint statement with Australia, India, and Japan that endorsed the UN Convention on the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS). The United States has not ratified and should not ratify UNCLOS, due to problematic sections unrelated to longstanding international customs to which the U.S. Navy already abides. Moreover, the statement endorsed an expansion of the number of permanent and non-permanent seats on the UN Security Council, which would effectively hand China and Russia increased power and influence.
Finally, the administration confirmed on September 30 that it will not seek another term on the UN Human Rights Council. The United States will be leaving a council that is more antisemitic and under greater Chinese influence than when the administration rejoined it in 2022 with promises of reform.
Iran
Trending Very Negative
Previous Trend:NegativeThe United States on October 1 assisted Israel in defending against over 180 ballistic missiles fired by Iran, though Washington’s last-minute warnings that Tehran would face “serious consequences” failed to deter the attack.
On September 10, the Biden administration confirmed that Moscow had received close-range ballistic missiles from Tehran. The move marks the first-ever instance of Iranian missile proliferation to Europe. U.S. officials also continue to warn that Russia and Iran are cooperating on a host of other issues, including nuclear and space. In response to the missile transfer, the administration imposed sanctions targeting Tehran’s ballistic missile program and Iran Air, the country’s national carrier. However, the administration has declined to snap back UN sanctions on Iran, including the UN missile embargo.
Two years after the regime’s murder of 22-year-old Iranian woman Mahsa Amini triggered nationwide protests, the Treasury Department imposed another round of human rights sanctions on Iran. Yet the administration still has not met reporting requirements under the Mahsa Amini Human Rights and Security Accountability Act, which obligates the president to determine whether Iran’s supreme leader and president qualify for human rights sanctions.
Also in September, Iran unveiled a new medium-range ballistic missile and launched a satellite into low-earth orbit using a three-stage all-solid-propellant space-launch vehicle. The latter platform contributes significantly to Iran’s ability to produce an intercontinental ballistic missile.
Israel
Trending Positive
Previous Trend:NeutralWith Hamas severely degraded in Gaza, Israel turned its attention to Lebanon following 11 months of Hezbollah attacks. The Biden administration has supported Israel’s right to self-defense but has also tried to constrain Israel, seeking de-escalation.
On September 15, Israel caused thousands of Hezbollah pagers and radios to explode, crippling the organization’s communications and dealing it a major psychological blow. Washington, however, distanced itself from the operation.
Addressing an emergency UN Security Council session on September 24, Secretary of State Antony Blinken acknowledged that Israel faces a “legitimate problem,” as Hezbollah’s onslaught has driven some 70,000 Israelis from their homes. But the administration called for a 21-day ceasefire. Instead, Israel pressed its advantage and eliminated Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and several other high-ranking terrorists in an underground bunker.
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin was reportedly furious for the short notice Jerusalem provided before Nasrallah’s killing. However, he vowed to continue military aid to Israel. President Biden defended Nasrallah’s killing but called for de-escalation. Biden again called for de-escalation as Israel launched a limited ground invasion into southern Lebanon at the end of the month.
Meanwhile, the U.S. military sent more assets to the region in anticipation of Iranian or Hezbollah retaliation. That attack came on October 1 when Tehran launched over 180 ballistic missiles at the Jewish state. Two U.S. Navy destroyers fired “approximately a dozen” interceptors at the Iranian missiles, and Biden said he was “fully, fully, fully supportive” of Israel.
Korea
Trending Neutral
Previous Trend:PositiveNorth Korea increased its saber-rattling in September, perhaps hoping to ensure the hermit nation is a priority for the next U.S. administration. Pyongyang revealed new photos of the inside of a uranium enrichment facility, potentially to showcase its ability to produce large amounts of nuclear fuel for atomic bombs. Analysts remain divided over the exact location of the plant.
This came after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un vowed to improve the readiness of his nuclear forces for potential war against the United States and South Korea. South Korean intelligence reportedly believes there is an increased likelihood that North Korea will conduct a seventh nuclear test after the U.S. election. Pyongyang also conducted its first test-launch of short-range missiles in two months. In addition, North Korea continued sending large trash-filled balloons across the border, disrupting flights at South Korean airports. Pyongyang has launched some 5,500 balloons since May. Speaking at the UN General Assembly, International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi called for new dialogue with North Korea to reduce tensions.
The Biden administration took steps to shore up the U.S.-South Korea alliance. The U.S.-ROK Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group and the U.S.-ROK Nuclear Consultative Group both met in early September. The latter held a joint interagency table-top simulation aimed at “strengthening the Alliance’s approach to cooperative decision-making about nuclear deterrence and planning for potential nuclear contingencies on the Korean Peninsula.” On September 23-24, the U.S. Department of Defense and ROK Ministry of National Defense also held the 25th Korea-U.S. Integrated Defense Dialogue in Seoul.
Latin America
Trending Negative
Previous Trend:NegativeThe Biden administration remains hesitant to reimpose oil sanctions against Venezuela’s Maduro regime and its state oil company, PDVSA. The United States did take some steps to pressure the regime for stealing the country’s July 28 presidential election and its subsequent widespread repression of the Venezuelan opposition. In mid-September, the U.S. Treasury Department and Department of State sanctioned Venezuelan officials involved in electoral fraud. The administration also seized a regime-owned executive jet in the Dominican Republic. More pressure is needed, however, to make Maduro budge.
Elsewhere in the region, U.S. influence and policies face increasing challenges from populist leaders. Honduras announced it will rescind its extradition treaty with the United States, ostensibly to protect allies of the sitting president, Xiomara Castro. Mexico announced it is freezing relations with the U.S. and Canadian embassies after the ambassadors criticized a proposed judicial reform pushed by the Mexican president that could negatively impact trade under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.
The White House criticized a Brazilian judicial ruling that bans the social media platform X and imposes heavy fines on anyone caught using a VPN to bypass the ban. But there were no meaningful consequences for Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who has supported the BRICS alliance and sought closer economic and security cooperation with Iran and China.
Lebanon
Trending Negative
Previous Trend:Very NegativeThe Biden administration seems to have shifted its posture on Lebanon over the past month. After sending U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein to the region for a final push for a diplomatic solution to tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, the administration seems to have reluctantly accepted that intensified Israeli military action in Lebanon was inevitable and necessary to force Hezbollah to back down. U.S. officials told Axios on September 21 that the administration is “extremely concerned” about further escalation but hopes the Israeli pressure will lead Hezbollah to accept a deal allowing displaced Israeli civilians to return home. This does not mean Washington approves of every action taken by Jerusalem. For example, the White House denied foreknowledge of the September 27 Israeli strike that eliminated Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah.
After successive and escalating Israeli blows had left Hezbollah reeling, increasing the risk of widening the confrontation, the White House sought to pressure Israel into a ceasefire. On September 25, for example, the Biden administration recruited several allied countries to press the Israelis to accept a 21-day ceasefire. This would have granted Hezbollah time to catch its breath and root out Israeli intelligence assets ahead of continued fighting. Israel rebuffed the ceasefire proposal and announced it had launched a ground invasion into southern Lebanon on September 30. Israeli officials reportedly assured Washington that the invasion plan is limited in ambition, aiming for the destruction of Hezbollah infrastructure near the border and then an Israeli withdrawal.
Nonproliferation and Biodefense
Trending Negative
Previous Trend:NeutralRussian President Vladmir Putin said on September 25 that under its updated nuclear declaratory policy, Moscow will consider “aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state,” conducted “with the participation or support of a nuclear state,” to be a “joint attack on the Russian Federation.” The Kremlin may hope this threat will help deter Washington from authorizing Ukraine to strike inside Russia using Western-made missiles. Speaking in the United Kingdom alongside his MI6 counterpart prior to Putin’s announcement, CIA Director Bill Burns downplayed Moscow’s nuclear “sabre rattling,” saying the West “cannot afford to be intimidated.” However, the Biden administration has continued to rebuff Kyiv’s requests for permission to use long-range munitions against Russia.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that Washington and London are increasingly concerned that stronger ties between Russia and Iran could lead Moscow to assist Tehran in perfecting steps required to construct nuclear weapons. On the sidelines of the UN General Assembly meeting in New York, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director-General Rafael Grossi met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi. Grossi said he observed a new willingness by the regime to engage on outstanding IAEA safeguards issues. Yet Iran is likely making a pretense of cooperation to evade Western pressure ahead of the U.S. election.
China conducted its first test of an intercontinental ballistic missile in several decades. In addition, Reuters reported that the United States is scrutinizing whether China is exporting Russian uranium to U.S. utilities in violation of a U.S. law banning such imports from Russia.
Sunni Jihadism
Trending Negative
Previous Trend:NegativeThe U.S. government announced that it completed an agreement with Iraq to withdraw forces from bases in Baghdad and the Anbar province and redeploy them to the Erbil province in northern Iraq. U.S. troops would begin departing Baghdad International Airport and Ain al-Asad Airbase after the presidential election, and the counterterrorism operation against the Islamic State in Iraq would end by September 2025, while operations from Erbil would support the U.S. mission in Syria through 2026. It is unclear if U.S. forces will remain in Iraq after 2026. General Michael Kurilla, the commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), said in congressional testimony in March 2024 that it would be difficult to support U.S. operations in Syria without a presence in Iraq.
As Washington codified the deal to withdrawal forces from Iraq, the U.S. military killed 38 terrorists in a series of airstrikes that targeted the Islamic State and Hurras al-Din, al-Qaeda’s branch in Syria. On September 13, CENTCOM announced that it had killed an ISIS fighter as he was planting a roadside bomb intended to kill U.S. troops. On September 16, a “large-scale airstrike on a remote ISIS training camp in central Syria” killed an estimated 28 Islamic State members, including four unnamed “senior leaders,” CENTCOM said. On September 24, a U.S. airstrike killed nine members of Hurras al-Din, “including Marwan Bassam ‘Abd-al-Ra’uf, a senior Hurras al-Din leader responsible for overseeing military operations,” according to CENTCOM.
Syria
Trending Negative
Previous Trend:NegativeAs part of its agreement to end the U.S. military mission in Iraq, the Biden administration “reached an understanding” with Baghdad that would allow U.S. troops to support counter-ISIS operations in Syria from positions in Iraq. This understanding would last “at least until September 2026,” or one year after the date set for the formal end of the U.S. military mission in Iraq. The roughly 900 U.S. troops in Syria depend heavily on support from American units in Iraq. The understanding with Baghdad creates the risk that pro-Tehran forces in Iraq could compel a U.S. withdrawal from Syria at a moment of their choosing. In addition to benefiting the Islamic State, this could enable the Assad regime to reassert control over northeast Syria, which is currently administered by Washington’s Kurdish partners, who played a critical role in defeating the ISIS caliphate.
In other news, the Treasury Department imposed sanctions on two shipping networks responsible for a range of illicit activities, including the sale of petroleum products to Syria in violation of U.S. sanctions. On September 11, Treasury announced sanctions designations against three Lebanese nationals along with five Lebanon-based firms and two vessels that “facilitated dozens of [liquid petroleum gas] shipments to the Government of Syria and channeled the profits to Hizballah.” On September 24, Treasury imposed sanctions on Luay al-Mallah, a Syrian-Turkish national based in Greece, along with four companies and nine vessels that “facilitated illicit trade between Syria and Iran for the benefit of [Iran’s Quds Force] and Hizballah.”
Turkey
Trending Neutral
Previous Trend:PositiveAt the UN General Assembly’s annual meeting in New York, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called on the United States to lift a broad array of sanctions levied against Ankara. Speaking to business representatives on September 24, Erdogan argued that it would be impossible for Ankara and Washington to achieve their long-term goals for trade and security cooperation if the United States does not abandon “additional tariffs in the iron, steel, and aluminum sectors, probes and the CAATSA sanctions,” referring to the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act. The tariffs in question are a holdover from the Trump administration’s decision to increase tariffs on U.S. imports of Turkish steel following Turkey’s incursion into northeast Syria against the Kurds in October 2019.
Erdogan is most interested in having Washington remove the CAATSA sanctions, which penalized Turkey’s defense procurement agency in 2019 in response to Ankara’s purchase of the Russian-made S-400 air defense system. That purchase resulted in Turkey’s removal from the F-35 program, as U.S. officials worried that Turkey’s S-400 regiment could allow Moscow to glean intelligence on the F-35. Erdogan has adamantly refused to divest from the S-400 since 2019.
Recent revelations indicate that senior Biden administration officials met with Turkish officials in July 2024 to explore possible options to bring Turkey back into the F-35 program. It is unclear if Ankara is prepared to reconsider its decision to hold on to its S-400 inventory.
Disclaimer
The analyses above do not necessarily represent the institutional views of FDD.