Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
Israel built and defended a secret Iran war base in Iraq Iran’s Supreme Leader is MIA, just when negotiators need him most Trump rejects latest Iran offer for talks, extending limbo in Mideast war WSJ Editorial: Iran tests Trump’s will to fight Putin presides over downsized military parade as Ukraine war drags on WSJ Editorial: Is Ukraine turning the Russian tide? Bahrain says it has arrested 41 people 'linked to Iran's IRGC' Body of missing US soldier recovered in Morocco Iran War hangs over China summit WaPo Editorial: Jimmy Lai is not forgotten as Trump goes to China Rubio challenges European allies to make NATO more useful WSJ Editorial: An election uprising in BritainIn The News
Israel
Israel set up a clandestine military outpost in the Iraqi desert to support its air campaign against Iran and launched airstrikes against Iraqi troops who almost discovered it early in the war, people familiar with the matter including U.S. officials said. – Wall Street Journal
Israeli strikes killed at least three Palestinians in Gaza on Sunday, including two members of the Hamas-run police force, health officials said, in violence that underscored the fragility of a U.S.-brokered ceasefire. – Reuters
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hopes to wean Israel off U.S. military support within a decade as his country pushes to strengthen ties with Gulf states, he said in an interview that aired on Sunday. – Reuters
Israel deported two activists, Saif Abu Keshek, a Spanish national, and Brazilian Thiago Avila, on Sunday after arresting them aboard a Gaza-bound flotilla in international waters, the foreign ministry said. – Reuters
The two foreign activists who were taken off a Gaza-bound flotilla on May 1 have been deported from Israel, the Foreign Ministry said Sunday. – Agence France-Presse
A series of announcements by official Palestinian Authority institutions this month have ignited speculation that Yasser Abbas, the millionaire son of PA President Mahmoud Abbas, may be being positioned to vie for his aging father’s post. – Times of Israel
Dov Zakheim writes: How that close relationship will affect the prospects for Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords — a major priority of the Trump White House — remains to be seen. Given ongoing tensions between the two most powerful Arab states in the Gulf, and Riyadh’s continued insistence that it will not join the accords without a clear path toward creation of a Palestinian state, it seems unlikely for now. Perhaps a change of government in Israel after the October elections will alter Riyadh’s position. But that will depend on whether the Israeli electorate decides that it has had enough of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — a bitter opponent of Palestinian statehood — and finally votes him out of the office he has held for nearly 16 of the last 17 years. – The Hill
Iran
Iran’s rulers have a problem as they attempt to negotiate an end to the war: Their new supreme leader is noticeably MIA and silent on the talks. U.S. and Iranian officials say Mojtaba Khamenei was severely injured in a February airstrike, which killed his wife, son and father, former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Since then, the only thing Iranians have heard or seen from their new leader are messages purportedly written by him and images that appeared to be modified or generated by artificial intelligence. – Wall Street Journal
The Trump administration’s attempts to shrug off exchanges of fire with Iran this week deepened concerns among Arab Gulf states that any deal to end the war will expose them to future conflict with a vengeful Iran. – Wall Street Journal
Iran is gaining ground in the information war with a succession of viral AI-made videos that aim to widen divisions in the U.S. and blur the line between entertainment and propaganda. The clips, produced and distributed by pro-Iranian groups and the country’s diplomatic missions, typically mock America’s war aims with the help of a Lego-styled President Trump and a similarly rendered cast of supporting characters. – Wall Street Journal
President Trump and Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said in separate interviews on Sunday that the war against Iran was not over, seeming to undermine messaging from the Trump administration last week that the conflict had run its course. – New York Times
President Trump on Sunday rejected the latest offer from Iran to end the war with the United States, declaring that it was “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE.” – New York Times
For the Trump administration, Iran’s severe economic struggles are part of a strategy to pressure the country into submission. “I hope it fails,” President Trump told reporters this month, of Iran’s economy. “You know why? Because I want to win.” Iranian officials insist that pressure will not work and that the country will not surrender. Many of those companies are buckling under wartime pressures. During the war, the U.S. and Israel hit Iranian industrial sites that produce key raw materials, as well as key infrastructure. – New York Times
Russia is shipping drone components to Iran via the Caspian Sea, U.S. officials say, helping Iran rebuild its offensive abilities after losing roughly 60 percent of its drone arsenal during recent fighting. The officials spoke anonymously to divulge private military assessments. – New York Times
Iran’s imprisoned Nobel Peace Prize winner Narges Mohammadi has been moved to a hospital in the capital, Tehran, and has been granted a suspension of her sentence on heavy bail, a foundation run by her family said on Sunday. – Reuters
Iran executed a man convicted of spying for the U.S. and Israeli intelligence services, the judiciary’s Mizan news outlet reported on Monday. – Reuters
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard navy on Saturday warned that any attack on Iranian oil tankers or commercial vessels would be met with a “heavy assault” on one of the U.S. bases in the region and enemy ships, even as a tenuous ceasefire appeared to be holding. – Associated Press
The oil market is in “a race against time” as the factors that combined to restrain price rises from the Iran war so far may no longer hold if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed into June, according to Morgan Stanley. – Bloomberg
Iran’s Intelligence Ministry said it had dismantled two alleged armed cells affiliated with Israel’s Mossad agency and arrested an individual accused of trying to transfer classified information about a military site abroad, Iranian state news agency IRNA reported on Sunday. – Jerusalem Post
US President Donald Trump said that the US has Iran’s enriched uranium surveilled, and is prepared to take action if it receives intelligence that action is being taken at the site in an interview with Full Measure on Sunday. – Jerusalem Post
Editorial: Mr. Trump kept the cease-fire anyway, hoping for a deal on Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program. But by signaling a deep reluctance to restart major military operations, he encouraged the Iranians to hold out for better terms. Instead of accepting 15 to 20 years of no nuclear enrichment, as U.S. negotiators had been led to believe, on April 11 the regime said five years. Vice President JD Vance had flown to Pakistan for nothing. By keeping the cease-fire on life support even now, Mr. Trump sends the same message. But rather than wait for Iran, the U.S. could at least resume guiding commercial ships out of the Strait. The regime needs to know it is losing its leverage. – Wall Street Journal
Diane Foley and Neda Sharghi write: Freeing the Americans currently held hostage in Iran and deterring them from future hostage diplomacy would signal genuine progress against international hostage taking of Americans traveling abroad. Any family member of a hostage will tell you they spend every day scouring the news for even just one mention of their loved one. May Trump have the moral courage to prioritize freedom for the six fellow Americans held captive by Iran and start by saying their names. The diplomatic window cannot be allowed to close without the unconditional release of our hostages. – The Hill
Benjamin H. Bradlow writes: None of this is to suggest that energy systems are the only factor in determining foreign policy. Ideology, alliance structures, domestic politics, and historical relationships all shape how countries position themselves. But these factors operate within constraints that are set by energy systems. And for much of the global South, the lesson of this war is that geopolitical sovereignty requires being able to produce one’s own power. – Foreign Affairs
Russia and Ukraine
Russia staged a sharply scaled-back version of its annual military parade on Saturday, amid fears of drone strikes by Kyiv, growing criticism of the Kremlin and increasing difficulties for its armed forces in Ukraine. – Wall Street Journal
Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a three-day cease-fire and prisoner exchange, President Trump announced Friday, the latest pause in fighting during the more than four yearslong war. – Wall Street Journal
Russia accused Armenia on Sunday of providing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy with “a platform for anti-Russian remarks”, in a further sign of a chill in relations between traditional allies Moscow and Yerevan. – Reuters
Ukrainians welcomed a three-day ceasefire brokered by the U.S. as a much-needed break from years of attacks from Russia as it came into effect on Saturday, even though the Kremlin said a longer-term peace deal remained a long way off. – Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday posted on social media that three Polish and two Moldovan prisoners had been released from Belarusian and Russian detention. – Reuters
Ukraine is running short of air defence missiles after Russia’s massive winter attack campaign, the country’s air force said on Friday, as it braces for further strikes. – Reuters
Russia and Ukraine swapped accusations of breaking a U.S.-brokered ceasefire on Sunday, with both sides claiming to have suffered casualties in drone and artillery strikes over the past 24 hours. – Associated Press. – Associated Press
The Defense Ministry has contracted 25,000 UGVs in the first half of 2026 alone, more than double last year’s total, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced the production of 50,000 ground robots for the year last week — creating a robotic ground force bigger than some allied armies. – Defense News
Editorial: The killing continues, though Mr. Putin said this weekend the war “is coming to an end.” We’ll believe that when we see him end his terror bombing of Ukraine’s cities and stop demanding that Kyiv give up more territory that Russia hasn’t been able to seize by force. All of this means this is a moment to increase support for Ukraine so it can keep the pressure on Russia. Only the prospect of greater losses and potential defeat will cause Mr. Putin to abandon his imperial ambitions in Ukraine—and in Western Europe. That’s the best way to end the war on honorable terms that secure peace and freedom for Ukraine. – Wall Street Journal
Hezbollah
The Al-Qard Al-Hasan Association, which works as Hezbollah’s bank and funding source, resumed its operations on Saturday, according to a report by Saudi-owned Al-Arabiya network. – Jerusalem Post
One IDF reservist was severely injured, and two reservists were moderately injured after explosive drones launched by Hezbollah terrorists fell within Israeli territory near the Lebanese border on Saturday. – Jerusalem Post
The Hezbollah terror group on Sunday published footage it said showed an Israeli Iron Dome battery being hit in an explosive drone attack last week, as cross-border violence between Israel and Lebanon continued throughout the day ahead of an expected third round of direct talks later this week. – Times of Israel
Lebanon
An Israeli strike on the southern Lebanese town of Saksakiyeh killed at least seven people, including a child, and wounded 15 on Saturday, Lebanon’s health ministry said. – Reuters
Israel and Lebanon will resume negotiations with two days of intensive talks facilitated by the US on May 14 and 15, the US State Department announced on Friday. – Jerusalem Post
Avi Ashkenazi writes: The current reality along the Lebanese border is highly problematic, and Israel is biting its lip. But judging by the way things look, it is only a matter of time before Israel will be forced to change its approach. Explosive drones are not rain falling from the sky, and the currently hollow declarations by Defense Minister Israel Katz and his boss, Benjamin Netanyahu, must be backed up fully and genuinely. The IDF will be required to carry out intensive operations in all of Lebanon’s safe haven cities, eliminate the organization’s leadership, strike its drone arrays forcefully, and create a new equation in which Hezbollah is weakened and vulnerable, and is no longer capable of waging a campaign against the IDF, not even a guerrilla war. Incidentally, that was the original objective of Operation Roaring Lion. – Jerusalem Post
Edward M. Gabriel writes: Washington has helped create this moment—and what follows will depend on whether it is sustained. The opening is narrow and will close quickly without disciplined follow-through by both Lebanon and Israel. Here, the alternative is familiar: renewed escalation, a weakened state, and a crisis that becomes harder to contain. For Lebanon, the next phase will determine whether a battered country, whose leadership has taken politically difficult steps that could alter the course of the region, will find a partner in Israel to transform the moment into lasting progress or allow it to slip into another missed opportunity. – National Interest
Gulf States
The war in Iran has become a profound stress-test for the long-term economic futures of wealthy Gulf monarchies that have built reputations as global financial centers and, increasingly, tourism hubs and tech powerhouses. – Washington Post
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told his United Arab Emirates counterpart on Friday that U.S.-Iran talks needed to be supported to prevent a resumption of hostilities in the Middle East. – Reuters
Bahrain’s interior ministry said on Saturday it had arrested 41 people it said were linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), the state news agency reported. – Reuters
Middle East & North Africa
A little-known Iraqi tycoon named Ali Al Zaidi has emerged as the likely next prime minister of Iraq with the backing of President Trump, who has invited the businessman to Washington and said the U.S. “is with him all the way.” The White House endorsement has come with a demand that Zaidi exclude Iranian-backed militias from Iraq’s next government and curtail Tehran’s influence in Baghdad. – Wall Street Journal
Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa announced a series of government changes in late-night presidential decrees published by state news agency SANA. – Reuters
A search team recovered the body of a U.S. soldier who went missing near a cliff during a training exercise in Cap Draa, Morocco, the U.S. Army said on Sunday. – Reuters
Kuwait’s army said it had detected and dealt with several hostile drones in the country’s airspace at dawn on Sunday, the latest incident following similar cross‑border drone activity linked to the Iran conflict. – Reuters
Libya’s largest functioning oil refinery has been closed and an emergency declared after clashes erupted near the facility in Zawiya, west of the capital Tripoli, two engineers and the refinery’s operator said on Friday. – Reuters
Korean Peninsula
Kim Jong Un is taking his nuclear ambitions to the high seas. On Thursday, the North Korean leader, clad in his signature black leather jacket, inspected his country’s first nuclear-capable warship as it navigated off North Korea’s west coast. The Choe Hyon, named after a celebrated North Korean guerrilla fighter, is capable of carrying nuclear-tipped missiles and will be deployed in June, according to a Friday statement in state media. – Wall Street Journal
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on Saturday reaffirmed his country’s commitment to its mutual defence treaty with Russia, in a message to President Vladimir Putin congratulating Russia on the anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War Two. – Reuters
South Korea’s martial law scandal is set to loom large over local elections in June that will test whether opposition conservatives can rein in the power of the ruling party of President Lee Jae Myung. – Reuters
Jonathan Levin writes: In the absence of swift movement on that front, the most responsible way to help South Koreans is to encourage them to build truly diversified portfolios, including large allocations to equities abroad. Yet Lee is doing the opposite by criticizing investments in global equities and portraying investments in South Korea as a patriotic imperative. All told, I hope South Korea’s leadership is enjoying it’s world-beating stock market, because history suggests its run of outperformance won’t last much longer. In the meantime, the best way forward is to seek diversification elsewhere and hope that Lee will choose to turn the country into a legitimate destination for long-term wealth creation — not just a trading playground for his fellow ants. – Bloomberg
China
The disconnect shows how Xi has made China’s security a priority over its economy. He is steering hundreds of billions of dollars into pursuing self-sufficiency in artificial intelligence, semiconductors, electric cars and other strategic sectors, while holding back on economic reforms that would help create more jobs and lift the country’s middle class. It is all in service of his vision for “national rejuvenation” grounded in military might and industrial strength, a strategy likely to be on full display when President Trump travels to Beijing to meet Xi. – Wall Street Journal
As the heads of the world’s two superpowers meet in Beijing this week, President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will have another nation looming over their summit: Iran. The long anticipated meeting has already been delayed once due to the U.S. and Israel’s war against Iran, which has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump is eager to move on from the Middle East war that is sapping his domestic power and straining the global economy. – Wall Street Journal
China’s private refiners have sought government approval to cut oil-processing rates, a month after Beijing ordered them to produce at any cost in order to secure domestic fuel availability. – Bloomberg
Editorial: The larger context for this summit is that the Chinese Communist Party continues to be the main financier and industrial base for the world’s bad actors, from Russia to Iran and North Korea. The first Trump Administration understood China as a strategic adversary—military, economic and ideological. The second Trump Administration is searching for detente, and Mr. Trump is the chief dove. A detente has some merit if America spends the interlude diversifying its rare-earth supply chain and passing a $1.5 trillion defense budget to rearm. Mr. Xi has studied the President and thinks he has trump cards on minerals and pharmaceuticals. Behind the talk of goodwill in Beijing, this reality hasn’t changed: Mr. Xi is playing a long game to overthrow the U.S. as the world’s leading power. – Wall Street Journal
Editorial: During the 2024 campaign, he promised to free him. On Thursday, a bipartisan group of more than 100 members of Congress signed a GOP-led letter urging Lai’s release. Two-thirds of senators signed it, including more than 40 Republicans. Xi releasing Lai would be a welcome humanitarian gesture and remove an impediment to more normalized U.S.-China relations. Refusing to do so, which unfortunately seems the likeliest outcome, would reflect the rot inside the Chinese system. It’s telling that Xi is so scared to let a 78-year-old ailing newspaperman go free. – Washington Post
Yanzhong Huang writes: A simple but potentially effective starting point would be for Washington to ease visa and security barriers for Chinese students and scholars and to expand fading exchanges in tourism, academia and business. It’s been nearly nine years since an American president visited China (Mr. Trump, in his first term). That sort of gap is untenable. Sustained, cleareyed and firm U.S. engagement may be the best way to reverse Chinese misperceptions and reset the world’s most consequential relationship. – New York Times
Daniel Murphy writes: Expertise on China does not develop quickly. It requires time, language skills and sustained exposure. It depends on many individual observations that, taken together, help policymakers and business leaders understand how China is changing. The U.S. does not need to agree with China to understand it. But it does need broad, real-time awareness to compete effectively. Without it, even the most carefully managed relationship risks being built on guesswork rather than insight. – The Hill
Charbel A. Antoun writes: Success, therefore, does not require a grand bargain — only a thin, reciprocal arrangement that gets both sides to May 15 without explosion. A narrow freeze framework, a face‑saving maritime de‑escalation, and a temporary alignment of incentives may be enough to prevent the Gulf crisis from dominating the Beijing summit on Xi’s terms. But even that outcome would be fragile, vulnerable to unraveling as soon as the summit ends and the artificial deadline disappears. How Washington spends the next week will not end the crisis — but it will decide the terms on which America enters the Beijing summit. The summit will not resolve the Gulf standoff, but it will reveal which answer the U.S. has chosen: resolution or endurance. And in a moment when China’s influence, Iran’s leverage, and Saudi Arabia’s autonomy are all converging, that choice will shape far more than the optics of a single meeting in Beijing. – The Hill
Kurt M. Campbell writes: In the end, the significance of the meeting will not lie in any agreements reached, but rather in the signals it sends about the future of U.S.-Chinese relations and the perceived standing of the two men. Here is the central challenge of the single-combat paradigm. Examples of solo combat throughout history almost always involve the audience as a central actor in the drama. These engagements are for show, a display for the crowd, which then carries forward the outcome as definitive. When Achilles dragged Hector’s body behind his chariot, Troy’s fate was sealed. A simple misstep or miscalculation by a single national champion can thus be decisive, while seasoned and well-equipped armies are sidelined. As Trump ventures into the arena in Beijing, the world will be watching and eager to see whether the two leaders emerge driving together in the chariot, or with one dragging the other behind. – Foreign Affairs
South Asia
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday urged a spate of measures including fuel conservation, work-from-home practices and limits on travel and imports, as a surge in global energy prices puts pressure on the country’s foreign exchange reserves. – Reuters
Twelve policemen were dead after a car bombing at a police post in northwestern Pakistan followed by a fight with militants in the city of Bannu, a senior police officer said on Sunday. – Reuters
The strain in Islam’s household reflects a broader squeeze in Bangladesh, heavily dependent on imported fuel, where energy shortages have disrupted daily life, slowed industrial output and raised concerns about economic growth as global tensions push up costs and strain supplies. – Associated Press
Asia
A Vatican official is making a rare trip to Taiwan this week for the 60th anniversary of the founding of the Buddhist charity the Tzu Chi Foundation, at a time when the Holy See is working to improve ties with China. – Reuters
Thailand’s billionaire former premier Thaksin Shinawatra was released from jail on parole and met by cheering crowds on Monday, eight months after a court ordered him to do the prison time he tried to dodge with a prolonged stay in hospital. – Reuters
Taiwan’s coast guard said on Monday that it had disrupted “illegal” operations by a Chinese research ship in waters close to the island and driven it away, part of what Taipei sees a provocative pattern of China’s stepped up maritime activities. – Reuters
Taiwan is confident in the stable development of its ties with the U.S. but hopes there are no “surprises” on Taiwan-related issues when U.S. President Donald Trump visits China this week, Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung said on Monday. – Reuters
Australia’s right-wing populist One Nation party, which wants to emulate U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive deportations, vowed to focus on ending mass migration, after winning its first seat in the country’s lower house. – Reuters
Lawmakers in the Philippines are set to vote on Monday on whether to impeach Vice President Sara Duterte, in what could create a major hurdle for her bid to run for the presidency in 2028. – Reuters
The former head of the Philippine National Police force will be summoned as part of a new investigation into alleged extrajudicial killings during anti-drug crackdowns ordered by ex-President Rodrigo Duterte, Interior Secretary Juanito Victor Remulla Jr. said Sunday. – Associated Press
New Zealand will only apply fuel restrictions in the event of severe and prolonged disruptions to supply, according to Finance Minister Nicola Willis. – Bloomberg
Europe
In a survey tracking the popularity of 24 heads of state and government, the French, German and British leaders occupied the bottom three spots, according to Morning Consult, a market-research company. The crisis of trust has played out differently in different countries, depending on the rhythm of elections and the peculiarities of the political system. – Wall Street Journal
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who met Italian leaders here on Friday, offered allies rankled by President Trump words of both support and warning. The U.S.’s top diplomat said he was a longtime supporter of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization—partly because it allows the U.S. to project military power around the world. But the decision by some allies such as Spain to deny the U.S. use of bases for its war against Iran created “unnecessary dangers” for the U.S. and could lead to changes, he said. – Wall Street Journal
Britain summoned China’s ambassador on Friday, the Foreign Office said on Saturday, following a London court case that resulted in the conviction of two men for spying on behalf of Hong Kong and ultimately China. – Reuters
Germany is reviving efforts to buy Tomahawk cruise missiles from the U.S., the Financial Times reported on Sunday, citing people with knowledge of Berlin’s strategy. – Reuters
Centre-right leader Peter Magyar was sworn in as Hungary’s prime minister on Saturday, propelled into office on promises of change after years of economic stagnation and strained ties with key allies under his predecessor Viktor Orban. – Reuters
Hungary’s Péter Magyar took his oath of office on Saturday to become the country’s new prime minister, kicking off a fresh political era after 16 years of Viktor Orbán’s autocratic rule. – Associated Press
Latvia would be ready to host more US soldiers on its soil, Foreign Minister Baiba Braze said after the administration of President Donald Trump announced it will withdraw thousands of troops from Germany. – Bloomberg
The UK and France will on Tuesday host a multinational meeting of defense ministers on military plans to restore trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the British government said. – Agence France-Presse
Editorial: Mr. Starmer paid a particularly steep price for the perception that he’s wary of tamping down antisemitism for fear of offending the left. He vowed Friday that he’ll fight to remain PM despite Labour calls for his ouster. But a period of intra-party intrigue and brawling seems inevitable even if he survives in the job. As for Mr. Farage, he’s leading an experiment more than a revolution. The biggest winner Thursday may turn out to be “no overall control.” Many local governments now lack a clear majority for any party as voters hedged their bets. Mr. Farage has no more than three years before the next national election due in 2029 in which to prove Reform can govern as well as it can campaign. – Wall Street Journal
Africa
At least 69 people have been killed in a militia attack in Democratic Republic of Congo, AFP reported on Saturday citing local and security sources. – Reuters
Somalia faces a severe malnutrition crisis and urgently needs more aid funding to avert a catastrophe, the United Nations World Food Programme said on Friday, warning it may be forced to halt humanitarian support from July without additional financing. – Reuters
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said he respected the constitutional court’s judgment on Friday that revived an impeachment process against him, adding in a statement that “no person is above the law”. – Reuters
Fighters suspected of being members of Islamic State West Africa Province attacked a Nigerian army base in the northeastern town of Magumeri, killing at least two soldiers and wounding the commanding officer, security sources and the military said. – Reuters
French President Emmanuel Macron kicked off a visit to Kenya on Sunday ahead of the Africa Forward Summit, a gathering meant to showcase France’s new policy for the continent — a shift from a former colonial power seen as dominating to what Paris describes as a partnership of equals. – Associated Press
Angolan leader João Lourenço informed the ruling Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola that he plans to seek another term as party chief before his second presidential term ends in 2027, Jornal de Angola reported. – Bloomberg
Karishma Vaswani writes: The answer is not to tell governments to avoid China, but to reduce the costs of saying no. That means credible alternative financing, more transparent debt and infrastructure deals, and support for much-needed development projects. Relationships with no strings attached sound ideal in theory, but they rarely exist. The lesson from Zambia is that Beijing’s economic reach comes with expectations. Navigating them will require clearer boundaries and stronger alternatives — or accepting a world that quietly runs on China’s wishes. – Bloomberg
Justice Malala writes: It is difficult to see the DA supporting a government he leads. In that scenario Mashatile, who used to be a keen supporter of the corruption-accused former president Jacob Zuma, may be forced to hammer out a coalition alliance with the ex-ANC leader’s populist MK Party (which won 15% of the vote in 2024) and the radical Economic Freedom Fighters of firebrand Julius Malema. No matter what happens next, Ramaphosa’s days look numbered — and the nation’s politics are headed into turmoil. – Bloomberg
The Americas
The Andean Community trade bloc ordered Colombia and Ecuador to lift all measures restricting trade between the two countries, after each raised tariffs on the other. – Reuters
Venezuela interim president Delcy Rodriguez has arrived in the Netherlands for a hearing at the International Court of Justice over the Esequibo region, according to a press release from the presidential office. – Reuters
Brazil’s Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes prohibited the implementation of a sharp reduction in the 27-year prison sentence of former President Jair Bolsonaro for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election, a court document showed on Saturday. – Reuters
Colombia’s government on Friday suspended arrest and extradition warrants against 29 leaders of the Clan del Golfo crime gang, the country’s largest illegal armed group, as part of peace talks the government has been holding with the gang, a government official told Reuters. – Reuters
Huanca is one of a small but growing number of Bolivians abandoning their fossil fuel-powered cars for electric vehicles as the South American country grapples with fuel shortages and a presidential decree that ended long-standing fuel subsidies, effectively doubling the cost of gasoline. – Associated Press
Mary Anastasia O’Grady writes: Team Milei is proud of the peso disinflation from triple digits since the president took office. But as Mr. Cachanosky observes, “inflation rose for the last nine consecutive months” and disinflation “faces a structural ceiling that monetary policy alone cannot raise.” The problem is that there is no “genuine demand” to hold pesos. They’re largely used to capture the premium interest-rate spread over the dollar. This “carry trade” spells vulnerability because it creates the expectation that the central bank will eventually need to print pesos to pay creditors. It’s a bad habit Argentina can’t shake. – Wall Street Journal
North America
Canada has a port problem. The Bank of Canada this week shined a spotlight on the lack of capacity at the country’s 17 main marine terminals that policymakers and economists say threaten to thwart trade-diversification efforts and make life costlier for households. Some of that capacity shortfall can be attributed to a lack of investment and Canada’s regulatory quagmire, two challenges Prime Minister Mark Carney has tried to address since taking power last year. – Wall Street Journal
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday defended the Trump administration’s decision to slap new sanctions on Cuba, the largest of which is against Grupo de Administración Empresarial S.A., a business conglomerate operated by the Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces. – Associated Press
Between 800 and 1,000 families have been forced to flee their homes in the mountains of central Mexico as a criminal mafia has attacked them with handmade explosives launched from drones and powerful weapons, community and human rights groups said Sunday. – Associated Press
United States
Seventeen American passengers who were aboard the cruise ship in the Atlantic Ocean that faced a hantavirus outbreak were on their way to the United States on Sunday night and were expected to land in Nebraska early Monday, health officials said. – New York Times
Chris Wright, the energy secretary, said on Sunday that the Trump administration would be open to pausing the federal gas tax to give Americans some relief at the pump. – New York Times
Employers in the US boosted payrolls in April by more than projected after an even bigger increase a month earlier, suggesting the labor market may be gaining momentum after near-zero job growth last year. – Bloomberg
Last year was the third most violent year on record for American Jews, according to an analysis by the Anti-Defamation League (ADL). – Just the News
Hal Brands writes: Many of Trump’s Republican allies fear the latter scenario: That’s why they have been crafting legislation that would constrain the export of high-end chips and otherwise tie the president’s hands. The arc of the US-China rivalry will be affected by what happens in Beijing next week. But it will be more profoundly shaped by what the two sides do, or don’t do, over the remainder of Trump’s term and after, to enhance their positions around the globe. Xi seems clear on this point; Trump remains enigmatic. Let’s hope the president carries with him, on his flight across the Pacific, the strategic wisdom attributed to Will Rogers: “Diplomacy is the art of saying ‘nice doggie’ until you can find a rock.” – Bloomberg
Cybersecurity
OpenAI allowed employees to sell up to $30 million worth of shares each in a recent financing, making them some of the earliest financial winners of the artificial-intelligence boom. – Wall Street Journal
Bangkok-based SiamAI said on Saturday it had not exported AI servers to China and that it complies with U.S. export and re-export control laws. – Reuters
South Korea and Taiwan’s artificial intelligence-fueled chip booms are set to swell both economies’ current-account surpluses to fresh records and pressure their central banks to raise interest rates later this year. – Bloomberg
Jacob Dreyer writes: In that way, as China exports those A.I. models, it will be exporting Chinese governance as well, with all of the safety, abundance, surveillance and embedded hierarchies that entails. That’s why the difference between these two countries in the A.I. race matters so much. America’s spaceship might still be the first to take off. But back on planet Earth, the Chinese will be using A.I. to run their hospitals, schools, roads and more. Brazilians, Russians, Africans and even the Europeans may be doing so soon, too. – New York Times
Haley Fuller writes: Military analysts increasingly recognize that future conflicts may involve attacks not only on hardware and networks, but on the behavior of AI systems themselves. This strategic problem is simple to describe but difficult to solve. Militaries can no longer focus only on whether AI systems are capable. They must also determine whether those systems remain trustworthy under battlefield conditions. With AI becoming embedded into defense infrastructure, the most dangerous failure may not be the system that breaks openly. It may be the system that appears reliable until the precise moment it is designed to fail. – Military.com
Defense
The U.S. military said on Friday it struck a vessel in the Eastern Pacific, killing two people and leaving one survivor. – Reuters
Rahm Emmanuel writes: To remain the world’s pre-eminent military power and project deterrence in several theaters at the same time, the Pentagon will need integrated command structures, different strategic plans, modernized procurement processes, and training programs for the battlefield of tomorrow. While more money is required to develop the ability to fight two different types of wars simultaneously, we also need leadership and vision. The challenge will require reforms unlike any we’ve undergone since the Reagan administration. Beyond needing a way out of the messes Mr. Trump has gotten us into, America today needs a second Goldwater-Nichols moment. – Wall Street Journal
Joe Zacks writes: The Biden administration prioritized countering racially- or ethnically-motivated violent extremist groups. The Trump administration has shifted the focus to left-wing violent extremists. Because violent domestic extremist groups are sadly becoming a reality that can no longer be ignored, they will almost certainly be addressed in future counterterrorism strategy documents regardless of the reigning administration’s party affiliation. Since Inauguration Day, the Trump administration has been active and decisive in countering terrorism and protecting Americans at home and abroad. The 2026 counterterrorism strategy codifies what has been repeatedly and successfully demonstrated by an administration that has clearly charged its counterterrorism professionals to keep America safe. – National Interest