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Large-scale attacks intensify tensions in Middle East Israel to attack Iran's underground missile sites in second phase of war, sources say Its missile threat degraded, Iran is taking fewer shots at more targets Trump tells Reuters US must have a role in choosing Iran's next leader WINEP’s Assaf Orion, Hanin Ghaddar, Michael Knights, April Longley Alley, Michael Jacobson, Matthew Levitt: The wartime role of Iran's “axis”: Countering proxy and terrorist threats WSJ Editorial: Ukraine is Iran's drone training range No talk of triggering NATO's Article 5 over Turkey missile shoot-down, Rutte says Israeli airstrikes pound Beirut suburb, Hezbollah warns Israelis U.A.E. explores freezing Iranian assets to punish Tehran for attacks US, Qatar discuss acquiring Ukrainian drones to down Iran's Shaheds, source says U.S. has a big ask for China: buy less oil from Russia, more from America Iranian drones fall in Azerbaijan as conflict spreads beyond MideastIn The News
Israel
Israel launched another wave of large-scale strikes on Tehran and hit Hezbollah command centers in Beirut, while Iran fired more missiles toward Israel and struck its northern neighbor, Azerbaijan, the 13th nation to be attacked since the start of the war. – Wall Street Journal
Tens of thousands of Palestinian worshipers crowded the sprawling courtyards of the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound in Jerusalem’s Old City last week for the second Friday of Ramadan, the holy Muslim fasting month. A day later, Israel abruptly announced it was temporarily closing the sacred site, leaving its esplanade desolate. – New York Times
Israel took the decision to kill Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in November and was planning to carry out the operation around six months later, Defence Minister Israel Katz said on Thursday. – Reuters
More than 20,000 Israelis have returned to the country since the start of the Iran air war that began on Saturday, the Transportation Ministry said on Thursday, adding that about 120,000 more Israelis currently abroad are seeking to come home. – Reuters
Israel’s war in Iran is entering a second phase that will see its fighter jets attacking ballistic missile sites buried deep underground, two sources familiar with Israel’s military campaign said. – Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday called again on Israel’s president to grant Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a pardon for corruption charges, saying the premier should have nothing on his mind but the war with Iran. – Reuters
Israel’s military is working to open the way for Kurdish forces to take up positions in Iran’s northwest in order to further shake Tehran’s authority, a move that is raising alarm bells in Turkey and Iraq. – Bloomberg
In recent months, officers in the IDF General Staff’s Operations Directorate have been working to build a war plan for two fronts, Iran and Lebanon, according to interviews with three officers published by Maariv on Thursday. – Jerusalem Post
Since the beginning of Operation Roaring Lion, approximately 1,700 Israelis have been forced out of their homes and placed in hotels, the Tourism Ministry announced earlier this week. – Jerusalem Post
The IDF Logistics Command said on Thursday that it has provided a staggering number of hundreds of millions of liters of gas to fighter jets to enable the game-changing air war against Iran since February 28. – Jerusalem Post
Israeli forces have dismantled structures in the illegal Jewish West Bank outpost of Nof HaMishkan, near the Palestinian village Qaryut in the territory’s north, after two Palestinians were reportedly shot dead there Monday in a clash with settlers. – Times of Israel
Editorial: The timing of Mr. Newsom’s anti-Israel musing is contrary to U.S. security interests as the two countries work together as allies in a common military campaign against Iran’s terrorist government. Missions that Israelis fly are bombing runs that American pilots don’t have to. Whatever one thinks of Israel’s domestic politics, a call to cut off arms to an ally in wartime ought to be disqualifying for someone who wants to be the U.S. Commander in Chief. – Wall Street Journal
Editorial: In addition, Israel’s leadership has to use this moment to rebuild public trust at home. Military unity in a crisis is not a substitute for civic cohesion, functioning institutions, and leadership that speaks honestly about what Israel got right, what it got wrong, and what it must fix. Finally, Netanyahu should treat this as a moment for seriousness, not triumphalism. A leader who has spent decades warning the world about Tehran should also understand the next phase. The “day after” is where victories are preserved or wasted. Israel needs discipline, restraint, and political maturity, starting at the top. For today, though, a straightforward sentence belongs on the record. Well done, Prime Minister Netanyahu. – Jerusalem Post
Yosie Levine writes: Citizens can question the decisions of their elected officials: not agreeing, for example, with the current American air campaign to weaken the Iranian regime. But such questions must not come at the expense of recognizing courage where it confronts evil. When our servicemen and -women put themselves in harm’s way to confront tyranny, they deserve our thanks. Politics should never stand in the way of virtue. At its core, Purim is a story about the triumph of good over evil. It reminds us that history turns on our capacity for moral clarity and moral courage. And it prays, as we do, that these days of tribulation will swiftly turn into days of deliverance. – Wall Street Journal
Gila Gamliel writes: This is why President Donald Trump chose to act. And this is where leadership matters. Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu see eye to eye. On peace. On the threat to the free world and its citizens. On the understanding that this fight is not only about the Jewish state but about defending freedom itself. They recognize that the battle is between light and darkness. Between open societies and regimes built on fear, secrecy, and constant intimidation. Leaders of the free world are not permitted the luxury of denial. Their responsibility is to stop evil and those who serve it, because that is what history demands of them. Israel stands on the front line. America stands beside it. Together, they defend not only nations but also the possibility of a safer, brighter, and far better world. – Jerusalem Post
Iran
For the Israeli F-35 pilot, it was hardly a fair fight. Lumbering up ahead was an Iranian air force Yak-130, a Russian-made subsonic jet trainer developed in the early 1990s and first flown almost 30 years ago. The Israeli pilot, flying one of the world’s most advanced warplanes, made in the U.S., took aim and downed the Iranian jet easily, sending it streaking to the ground in a ball of fire. – Wall Street Journal
The U.S. and Israel say they have degraded Iran’s missile stockpiles and launchers, blunting Tehran’s ability to unleash the massive barrages that opened the war. – Wall Street Journal
President Trump said this week that he was open to defending all ships carrying fuel through the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Iran, after Tehran hit tankers passing through local waterways. – Wall Street Journal
If a ground war is to be fought in Iran, the first shots could be fired in the country’s Kurdish areas, where militias say they are preparing to take on the government in Tehran—but only if they think they have a realistic chance of liberating themselves from regime forces. – Wall Street Journal
The U.S. and Israel began pounding Iran from the sea and skies on the morning of Feb. 28, triggering a fierce response from Tehran that has sent thousands of missiles and drones toward Israel, U.S. bases in the Middle East and countries across the Gulf. – Wall Street Journal
Iran’s foreign minister accused the United States of committing an “atrocity at sea” on Thursday, a day after an American submarine torpedoed an Iranian frigate off the southern coast of Sri Lanka. – New York Times
U.S. military investigators believe it is likely that U.S. forces were responsible for an apparent strike on an Iranian girls’ school that killed scores of children on Saturday but have not yet reached a final conclusion or completed their investigation, two U.S. officials told Reuters. – Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump told Reuters on Thursday the United States must be involved in choosing the next leader of Iran and said it would be “wonderful” if Iranian Kurdish forces based in Iraq were to cross into Iran to launch attacks on security forces there. – Reuters
President Donald Trump said on Thursday he was not concerned about rising U.S. gas prices driven by the widening Iran conflict, telling Reuters in an exclusive interview that the U.S. military operation was his priority. – Reuters
President Donald Trump on Thursday said Tehran was reaching out to the United States about making a deal amid U.S. and Israeli strikeson Iran, adding that further action to reduce pressure on oil was imminent. – Reuters
The World Health Organization chief said on Thursday that it has verified 13 attacks on health infrastructure in Iran amid a U.S.-Israeli campaign and it was checking reports that four healthcare workers were killed and 25 others injured. – Reuters
Iranian dry bulk vessels are attempting to carry their cargoes through the Gulf and on to export markets for the first time since the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran last weekend, ship tracking data showed on Thursday. – Reuters
Iran is increasingly relying on drones rather than missiles to attack Gulf states as the war in the Middle East drags on. Figures from the defense ministries in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain show the vast majority of projectiles fired toward them in recent days have been drones, most commonly the Iranian-made Shahed variety. – Bloomberg
US President Donald Trump urged Iranian diplomats to seek asylum during an address at the East Room of the White House as part of a ceremony hosting Inter Miami CF on Thursday night. – Jerusalem Post
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi claimed that Iran had not attacked its neighbors in an interview with NBC’s Tom Llamas on Thursday. – Jerusalem Post
Iran launched eight volleys of ballistic missiles at Israel on Thursday, sending millions running to bomb shelters, as the Israel Defense Forces kept up its strikes on Iranian military and regime targets on the sixth day of the war. – Times of Israel
Siavash Gholami writes: Even at the regime’s weakest point, Trump should avoid a return to the familiar pattern of one more round of talks; one more attempt to engage “moderates,” as Obama did; or one more deferral of the underlying issue, which is the regime in its entirety. That approach has defined the past – and has consistently failed Americans, allies, and the Iranian nation.The approach that will secure long-term peace regionally and safeguard American and allied interests is alignment with the Iranian nation to deliver the ultimate blow: the takeover of government and a transition under Pahlavi’s leadership. – Jerusalem Post
Assaf Orion, Hanin Ghaddar, Michael Knights, April Longley Alley, Michael Jacobson, and Matthew Levitt write: Yet despite being more prepared to deal with potential wartime terrorist plots from Iran or Hezbollah, foreign countries still have significant blind spots to such activity. The Trump administration should therefore urge partner governments to increase their intelligence and law enforcement focus on Iranian and proxy elements, underscoring that even if their own citizens are not the targets of new attacks, they could still be among the victims. Foreign governments should also be reminded that this type of activity represents an extraordinary Iranian violation of their sovereignty and should have real consequences—a principle that some officials have been relatively slow to grasp. As for those partners who are still concerned about potential retaliation from Iran or Hezbollah, the administration should point out that historically, actions like law enforcement arrests and sanctions have not resulted in military or terrorist attacks. – Washington Institute
Patrick Clawson and Farzin Nadimi write: As the new commander-in-chief, Mojtaba would likely embrace a strategy of “defiant consolidation”—that is, relying on the IRGC, emphasizing strategic depth through coercive power, and using missile and asymmetric tools to demonstrate resilience. Over the medium term, he and the IRGC may decide that Iran must move quickly to obtain nuclear weapons in order to forestall future U.S. and Israeli attacks. Whether this approach stabilizes the regime or accelerates fragmentation, it will shape the next phase of the conflict. If the regime collapses, Mojtaba would likely try to work with remaining loyalist IRGC and Basij elements to wage an insurgency and foil the Iranian people’s efforts to rebuild their country. – Washington Institute
Brian Katulis writes: The main effect has been to divert US policy attention away from earlier areas of focus, such as the major, still not fully settled issue of the devastated Gaza Strip. The ongoing Iran war and its spillover will, almost by necessity, push Washington away from earlier tenuous attempts to proactively promote progress in Gaza (such as with last month’s Board of Peace meeting) back to the reactive, crisis-management mode that prevailed during the second half of the Biden administration after the Hamas attack against Israel on October 7, 2023. Nearly 50 years ago, momentous events in Iran upended and irreparably damaged the presidency of Jimmy Carter. In launching the war against Iran this past weekend, Donald Trump risks a similar fate. – Middle East Institute
Brian Katulis writes: This is not new for Trump, who runs his foreign policy like an improv-performer-in-chief, zigzagging and making things up as he goes, from Gaza to Ukraine to Venezuela to Iran. That’s why others have given Trump’s overall performance on the global stage and in particular the Middle East in the first year since he returned to office is mixed. Trump’s proclivity to rely on bold statements and photo ops to project the image of success ends up hindering sustainable progress — just ask the Palestinians in Gaza what they think about Trump’s Board of Peace (not much). – Middle East Institute
Graeme Wood writes: One thing Mojtaba is not is a religious scholar, fit to lead a country whose founding revolutionary purpose was to place the state under the total authority of the most distinguished Shiite jurist. His father came up short on this score too—but not as short as Mojtaba. Upon appointment, Ali was a hojjat al-Islam, a journeyman jurist, one grade below ayatollah. (In elevating Ali, the Assembly of Experts passed over Hussein-Ali Montazeri, a grand ayatollah, whose scholarly chops eclipsed Khamenei’s but who had recently fallen out with the regime.) Mojtaba has studied religion but is not even a hojjat al-Islam. The typical currency of clerical power is the number of people who freely choose to follow your guidance when you deliver rulings on what Islam commands, whether in personal matters or political ones. – The Atlantic
Sammar Khader writes: If any group were to secede, the Kurds would be the most plausible candidates. However, this would be met with stiff resistance from Turkey and Iran, regardless of what form its government takes in the aftermath of the conflict. Moreover, none of the existing armed factions possesses adequate manpower, a unified vision, a command structure, financing, or external support to sustain any durable secession. A more plausible scenario should Iran’s central authority erode is the emergence of insurgencies amid security vacuums, intensified cross-border tensions, and the prospect of civil conflict. – National Interest
Mohammed A. Salih writes: Kurdish actors appear well aware of the risks involved in entering the current conflict and will likely proceed with caution. Yet the deeper driver of instability in Iran—and across much of the Middle East—remains the region’s rigidly centralized and violent authoritarian state structures, which have long denied meaningful political and cultural rights to large segments of their populations. Any discussion of the future of these states and the minority question that ignores these structural realities risks reproducing the same cycles of repression, instability, and desperate political gambits that have shaped the region’s politics for decades. – Foreign Policy
Russia and Ukraine
For the first time, the U.S. sided with Russia and China on Thursday in a dispute at the United Nations atomic agency over the danger posed by attacks on Ukraine’s nuclear power, showing Washington’s increasing alignment with Moscow. – Wall Street Journal
Ukraine spoke to the United States about the possibility of postponing the next round of trilateral talks with Russia “for a while” and changing the location due to the spiraling Iran conflict, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday. – Reuters
NATO allies will keep supporting Ukraine despite the situation in Iran, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte told Reuters on Thursday. – Reuters
Iran has not approached Moscow with a request for arms supplies, the Kremlin said on Thursday. Russia has condemned U.S.-Israeli strikes and called for an immediate ceasefire against a country it has drawn closer to in recent years. – Reuters
Russia and Ukraine exchanged 200 prisoners of war on each side on Thursday and will swap another 300 each on Friday, the Russian Foreign Ministry said. – Reuters
Two ethnic Hungarian prisoners of war who were released by Russia to Budapest arrived in the country early on Thursday, drawing condemnation from Kyiv as “provocation” as the POWs were also dual citizens of Ukraine. – Reuters
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha accused Hungary early on Friday of detaining seven employees of Ukraine’s state savings bank after a fresh exchange of barbs between the two countries’ leaders. – Reuters
The United States joined Russia, China, and Niger on Thursday in opposing a resolution adopted by the U.N. nuclear watchdog’s board denouncing attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure as a threat to nuclear safety, diplomats said. – Reuters
A Romanian man was convicted of spying for Ukraine and sentenced by a Russian court on Thursday to 15 years in prison, the court in the southern region of Krasnodar said. – Reuters
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday that Ukraine would provide assistance to the U.S. in response to its request for help in dealing with Iranian drones in the Middle East. – Reuters
Vladimir Putin is determined to keep spending on strengthening Russia’s military despite a weakening economy, according to a Lithuanian intelligence assessment. – Bloomberg
Editorial: American service members dead at the hands of an Iranian drone is a clarifying moment that the U.S. and Ukraine are fighting common enemies. Those enemies are socializing the lessons of modern warfare, no matter how much the U.S. might prefer to deal with Russia or Iran on separate terms. The President deserves credit for accepting military risk to rid the U.S. of a true and enduring enemy in Tehran, and success will radiate to U.S. benefit in other regions. But the drone lesson is that what happens in Ukraine doesn’t stay there—and America has a vital security stake in Ukraine’s survival as part of the coalition fighting the Moscow-Tehran axis. – Wall Street Journal
Kristina Hook writes: Finally, any agreement must be sustainable within Ukraine itself. Ukrainians are already being asked to consider painful compromises after years of existential war, in which nearly every person has lost a family member or friend to Russia’s invasion. Abandoning abducted children would make national acceptance of any settlement far more difficult. Bringing captive Ukrainians home is not only a legal and moral imperative. It is one of the few steps that can help build domestic consent for peace. Peace in Ukraine cannot be built on promises alone. It must begin with proof. Until Russia returns the children it has taken — and ends the systems designed to erase those who remain under occupation — no settlement can be considered credible, durable or just. – The Hill
Sam Skove writes: Ukraine has also won the attention of U.S. first lady Melania Trump, who is now focused on the issue of Ukrainian children who have been kidnapped by Russian forces. In February, Melania Trump said that work with Putin’s staff is ongoing. Still, some are skeptical that the cards Ukraine has played to win over Trump’s allies translate into influence over Trump himself, who—from Iran to his handling of the case of convicted sex offender Jeffery Epstein—has taken actions that break with his constituencies’ interests. – Foreign Policy
Anna Borshchevskaya writes: Putin continues to use his position in the Middle East to chip away at Russia’s isolation for its war of aggression against Ukraine. And if a meaningful pause in the Ukraine war frees up more time and resources for the Kremlin, Russia could provide more and better assistance to Tehran. Trump is right to focus on Iran and its nuclear program. The current regime in Tehran is dangerous to U.S. interests and partners in the Middle East. But U.S. policymakers should not lose sight of Tehran’s partner—and we should remember that Russia historically rebounds from losses. – Kyiv Independent
Hezbollah
Lebanon’s Hezbollah warned Israeli residents to evacuate towns within 5 km (3.11 miles) of the border between the countries in a message posted on its Telegram channel in Hebrew early on Friday. – Reuters
Almost 500,000 Hezbollah supporters have been evacuated from their regular living spaces in southern Lebanon, Beirut, and some other spots, The Jerusalem Post has learned. – Jerusalem Post
Eitan Ishai writes: In doing so, it could achieve a strategic outcome more significant than any military move or targeted killing. For its part, the Lebanese state will need to ensure the distinction between Hezbollah’s undermining of the state and the Shi’ite sect, which is an integral part of Lebanon’s social fabric. Diplomatic activity does not need to come at the expense of military action, but Israel must internalize that military power is a means, not the objective. Circumstances have created an unprecedented situation in which Israel is capable of conducting a campaign against a sworn enemy while the Lebanese state joins it – mediated and coordinated with regional and international allies. This opportunity must not be lost – the time has come to deliver a diplomatic blow to Hezbollah. – Jerusalem Post
Ron Ben-Yishai writes: Hezbollah’s limited entry into the fighting, reportedly under Iranian pressure, has been met with a forceful Israeli response, even without the large-scale ground maneuver the IDF has prepared but has not yet activated, as long as the campaign in Iran continues. […] That axis includes Iran, the Houthis in Yemen and Shiite militias in Iraq. While those groups have not fully entered the confrontation, they have attempted to target U.S. bases across the Middle East. In addition to the Iranian and Lebanese fronts, Israel has also sent a warning to Syria’s leadership. Damascus was cautioned not to exploit the situation to harm the Druze population in the Suwayda region. According to Israeli officials, Israel is prepared for potential action against jihadist organizations operating inside Syria if necessary. – Ynet
Turkey
NATO does not plan to trigger its Article 5 mutual defence clause over the shooting down of a ballistic missile headed for Turkey, Secretary General Mark Rutte told Reuters on Thursday, amid fears the alliance could become embroiled in the U.S.-Iran war. – Reuters
NATO has increased its alliance-wide ballistic missile defence posture following the intercept of a missile from Iran targeted at Turkey, its military headquarters said on Thursday. – Reuters
The head of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development told Reuters on Thursday that Turkey must “stay on course” in its inflation fight, and she applauded steps taken by the central bank this week to address market fallout from the war in the Middle East. – Reuters
Lebanon
Israel carried out heavy airstrikes on the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut overnight after ordering its residents to leave, while the Iran-backed group warned Israelis to leave towns and villages at the frontier. – Reuters
Israel warned residents to leave Beirut’s southern suburbs, including Hezbollah-controlled areas, on Thursday, prompting an exodus from a swathe of the capital known as Dahiyeh which a far-right Israeli minister said would soon resemble parts of Gaza. – Reuters
France will strengthen its cooperation with the Lebanese Armed Forces and provide armored transport vehicles as well as operational and logistical support, French President Emmanuel Macron said on Thursday, as Lebanon was pulled deeper into the war in the Middle East earlier this week. – Reuters
On a Beirut beach, hundreds of families were milling around on Thursday, some spreading blankets on the pavement and sand after fleeing in haste following an unprecedented Israeli warning to evacuate the city’s nearby southern suburbs amid strikes on the Hezbollah terror group. – Agence France-Presse
Two IDF soldiers were wounded Thursday in an anti-tank missile attack in southern Lebanon, the military said, as fighting with the Hezbollah terrorist group continues along the border. – Ynet
Lebanese media reported early Thursday that Israel attempted to assassinate a senior Hamas figure in northern Lebanon, with casualties reported after a strike on an apartment in the Beddawi refugee camp in the city of Tripoli. – Ynet
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia is starting to shift crude exports to its Red Sea hub at Yanbu as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz constrain Gulf shipments. According to Kpler vessel-tracking data, about 10 million barrels of crude were loaded from the Red Sea’s Al-Muajjiz terminal in the first four days of March, implying a daily pace of roughly 2.5 million barrels. – Wall Street Journal
Diplomats and staff at embassies in Riyadh’s Diplomatic Quarter were told to shelter in place on Thursday due to a potential but unspecified threat, four people with direct knowledge of the matter said. – Reuters
Saudi Arabia intercepted and destroyed three ballistic missiles launched towards Prince Sultan Air Base, a Defense Ministry spokesperson announced on Friday. – Jerusalem Post
Gulf States
The United Arab Emirates is weighing freezing billions of dollars of Iranian assets held in the Gulf state, according to people familiar with the discussions, a move that could sever one of Tehran’s most important economic lifelines. – Wall Street Journal
Emirates and Etihad Airways were resuming limited flight schedules to key global cities from their United Arab Emirates hubs on Friday, though the threat of missile fire piled pressure on airlines as they scramble to accommodate travellers. – Reuters
The U.S. and Qatar are in discussions with Kyiv about acquiring Ukrainian interceptor drones as a cheap alternative to down Iranian Shahed UAVs amid the war in the Gulf, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters. – Reuters
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Thursday that four additional Typhoon fighter jets would be sent to Qatar as the conflict in the Middle East escalates, insisting that the UK has the right plan for defence. – Reuters
More tankers came under attack in Gulf waters on Thursday as the U.S.–Iran war escalated, and Iranian drones entered Azerbaijan, threatening to spread the crisis to more oil producers in the region. – Reuters
Countries in the Middle East have told European officials they are concerned about the risk of civil war in Iran as a result of the conflict between Tehran and the United States and Israel, EU foreign chief Kaja Kallas said on Thursday. – Reuters
Nava Freiberg writes: Nonetheless, Lerman sees the current situation as an “opportunity for us to rebuild what I’ve been calling for years the ‘stability camp’ in the Middle East,” by coordinating what the endgame is in the Iran campaign, and “to significantly tighten security ties with the Gulf states.” Whether this security coordination could ultimately lead to new or expanded formal or diplomatic ties — especially with countries more reluctant to create ties with Israel, like Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia — remains to be seen. For both future security cooperation and formal ties, Israel’s military performance carries great potential at the moment. “We’re demonstrating our capabilities to them — this is very important,” Lerman said. – Times of Israel
Middle East & North Africa
A small Algerian military transport aircraft crashed shortly after taking off from Boufarik air base on Thursday, killing two crew members and injuring four others, Ennahar TV reported citing the defence ministry. – Reuters
A tanker carrying liquefied natural gas from Russia’s sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 plant has diverted from the Mediterranean Sea to sail around Africa following an attack that sank a similar Russian vessel off Libya this week, LSEG ship-tracking data showed on Thursday. – Reuters
Syria has opened a newly reactivated air corridor from the northern city of Aleppo toward the Mediterranean Sea for use by foreign airlines as well as its national carrier, the head of the country’s Civil Aviation Authority told Reuters on Thursday, as air traffic gradually resumes through Aleppo International Airport. – Reuters
Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi said Thursday his country was in an economic “state of near-emergency” as a result of the Middle East war, warning of runaway inflation. – Agence France-Presse
IDF sources on Thursday expressed surprise that Yemen’s Houthis have not yet attacked Israel as part of the wider regional conflict. – Jerusalem Post
The leader of the Yemen-based Houthi rebels warned on Thursday that his group was ready to strike at any moment amid US and Israeli strikes on Iran, which has retaliated by firing missiles at Israel as well as at other regional countries. – Arutz Sheva
Dalia Dassa Kaye writes: At this point, aiming for anything more than damage control is unrealistic. Unfortunately, even as polls show that the majority of Americans oppose the war, too many American leaders continue to harbor fantastical expectations about shaping the Middle East through American power. In reality, that power is diminished by another reckless and costly war. Rather than help usher in a new Middle East, this war is likely to prolong the life of the old one, whether or not change comes to Iran. The time to end it is now. – Foreign Affairs
Gedaliah Afterman writes: The broader lesson of the current crisis is that military power can disrupt regional realities but cannot determine what follows. That depends on whether the economic connections that link the region to the wider world hold or fracture under pressure. The future of the Middle East will be shaped not only by the outcome of the war but also by whether the region’s economic infrastructure and partnerships remain intact in the weeks and months that follow. The first days of the conflict already suggest that resilient countries in the region will play a decisive role in shaping what comes next. – National Interest
Korean Peninsula
South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun said on Friday the U.S. and South Korean militaries are discussing the possible redeployment of some U.S. Patriot missile defence systems based in South Korea to be used in the war against Iran. – Reuters
South Korea has banned travel to Iran for its citizens starting at 6 p.m. (0900 GMT) on Thursday due to heightened safety risk from the war, its foreign ministry said in a statement. – Reuters
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inspected his new destroyer for two straight days ahead of its commissioning and observed a test of cruise missiles fired from the warship, vowing to accelerate the nuclear-armament of his navy, state media said Thursday. – Associated Press
J. James Kim writes: Seoul’s most urgent task is to stabilize its energy supply through coordinated stockpile releases and accelerated renegotiations of contracts with alternative LNG suppliers. But beyond the immediate crisis, this event should prompt a longer-term rethink of South Korea’s energy diversification strategy. On the security front, the conflict illustrates that the alliance carries both benefits and risks. It would be wise for South Korea to plan more explicitly for the national security implications of escalation. Also, if Pyongyang is watching closely, it should take from Moscow’s impotence not a recommendation for boldness, but the risks of overdependence on Russia. – National Interest
China
Ahead of President Trump’s visit to Beijing, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is considering putting a tricky trade-off on the agenda for coming talks with his Chinese counterpart: reducing China’s oil purchases from U.S. adversaries like Russia. – Wall Street Journal
Hong Kong media tycoon Jimmy Lai will not appeal against his conviction and 20-year jail term for collusion with foreign forces and sedition, his lawyer said on Friday, after a landmark case that sparked international criticism. – Reuters
China on Thursday set out a five-year roadmap to turbocharge scientific breakthroughs and embed AI across its industrial economic machine, framing technological dominance as a core national security goal in its sharpening rivalry with the U.S.. – Reuters
China is in talks with Iran to allow crude oil and Qatari liquefied natural gas vessels safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz as the U.S.-Israeli war on Tehran intensifies, three diplomatic sources told Reuters. – Reuters
China hasn’t dispatched a single warplane near Taiwan for the past seven days, a mysterious absence that amounts to Beijing’s longest spell away from the sensitive area since Taiwan started regularly disclosing the activity. – Bloomberg
Beijing is working to ramp up production of nuclear-powered attack boats and incorporate larger numbers of guided-missile classes into its submarine force, putting the People’s Liberation Army Navy on the path to credibly challenge U.S. maritime dominance by the 2040s, the commander of U.S. naval intelligence testified Monday. – US Naval Institute
Editorial: China’s economy can still grow despite these policy failures. And its relatively closed financial system allows it to avoid financial panics or crashes if its plans don’t work. Foreigners will continue to visit China and be impressed by corners of the economy that are working—some of which, such as AI, pose serious strategic challenges to the West. But the Chinese economy isn’t the juggernaut of Communist myth that America should emulate. Its top-down model of political control is leading to slower growth and fewer gains for the working class. – Wall Street Journal
Juliana Liu writes: China’s support for its industrial base was on display just two weeks ago at the Spring Festival Gala, a four-hour variety show broadcast on the eve of the Lunar New Year with an audience of more than 600 million viewers. Much has been written about the viral dancing robots from Hangzhou Unitree Technology Co. But a far more insightful performance came hours later. A group sang about its desire to excel in a range of professions from plumbing to aircraft manufacturing. It felt not only like a rebuttal to the “lie flat” movement, but also a plea: That people are worth investing in, too. Delivered on the country’s biggest stage, it was an important message that Beijing should heed. – Bloomberg
Thomas J. Christensen writes: Along with all the other potential sources of U.S.-Chinese tensions outlined above, arms sales or broader U.S. cooperation in bolstering Taiwan’s defense preparedness could provide another incentive for Beijing to limit rare-earth exports and reduce drug enforcement cooperation. What the two sides achieved in 2025 was an important step in resetting U.S.-Chinese relations, but what was left unaddressed could derail the gains of the Busan accord and further escalate bilateral tensions. – Foreign Affairs
Elly Rostoum writes: China will continue to advance regardless of US preferences. Its trajectory is constrained by inefficiencies, demographics, and external pressure, not on American permission. Export controls may slow certain progress but cannot reverse it, as China’s response to recent measures — halting or discouraging purchases of certain US chips — demonstrates. US policy requires a clear articulation of goals. Is the aim to slow China, to compete alongside it, or to ensure US resilience regardless of outcomes? Current policy gestures toward both objectives without fully committing to either. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Valentin Weber writes: The Chinese government will always be able to put pressure on entities that are headquartered in China and potentially in third countries that depend on China. This pressure will not be visible to the outside, just as technological backdoors are hidden. The only way for “untrustworthy” companies to deal with geopolitical risk is to relocate to Europe and have their sole headquarters there. De-risking forces policymakers into a defensive mindset. Every minute spent on de-risking is not spent on propelling innovation. The best strategy would be for Europe to become a tech leader, gain market share, and avoid having to constantly think about de-risking from Chinese tech. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Michael Schiffer writes: And here’s the thing about that agenda: it’s worth pursuing regardless of China. A more competitive technological base makes Americans more prosperous. Energy resilience and a transition to a zero-carbon future reduce exposure to exactly the kind of Middle East volatility that Trump’s strikes may have now amplified. Strong alliances make the United States more secure. A thriving middle class makes democracy more durable. The competition with China may be a reason to accelerate these investments, but it is not the only reason to make them. We need to build American strength, not dissipate it on the wrong objectives. – National Interest
Aaron Glasserman writes: This would still likely not come in the form of direct military engagement, which China has consistently avoided, but rather export controls on rare earths and other industries such as pharmaceuticals, where it controls a U.S. choke point. But as long as Beijing can preserve its core economic and strategic interests in a post-Islamic Republic regional order, it is unlikely to assume the substantial risks required to directly intervene in shaping it. – Foreign Policy
South Asia
Rapper-turned-politician Balendra Shah’s party gained leads in early counting in Nepal’s general election, far outpacing his other rivals, including the country’s former prime minister who was forced to resign after a historic youth-led uprising last year. – Reuters
Pakistan’s efforts to preserve close ties with President Donald Trump are being put to the test after protesters stormed the U.S. consulate in Karachi last week and poured onto streets elsewhere over the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in U.S. and Israeli strikes. – Reuters
Pakistanis fleeing Iran described explosions and missile strikes across Tehran shaking the ground under their feet and engulfing buildings in fire and smoke in a city emptied of many of its residents. – Reuters
Indian refiners are buying millions of barrels of prompt Russian crude oil cargoes as the South Asian nation seeks to navigate an oil supply crunch triggered by the Middle East conflict, six sources familiar with the matter said. – Reuters
India is in talks with the United States to secure marine cover for vessels shipping oil from the Middle East, as New Delhi seeks to shield buyers from potential supply disruptions caused by the crisis in the Gulf, a government official said on Thursday. – Reuters
Sri Lanka began transferring more than 200 sailors from an Iranian vessel to shore Friday after the ship sought assistance while anchored outside the country’s waters, as tensions mounted in the Indian Ocean following the sinking of an Iranian warship by a U.S. submarine. – Associated Press
Pakistan won’t begin talks to end clashes with Afghanistan until Kabul stops supporting and harboring militant groups that launch cross-border attacks from its territory, a spokesman for Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said. – Bloomberg
The US won’t give India the same kind of economic advantages it gave China, which allowed that country to emerge as a major competitor, Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau said on Thursday, signaling Washington’s cautiousness in negotiations over a trade deal. – Bloomberg
Wolfgang Petermann writes: For U.S. strategy, Bangladesh is the hinge: When Dhaka tilts toward a Sino-Pakistani security ecosystem, India is forced inward and China gains operational freedom eastward. Left unattended, Dhaka’s incremental choices in procurement, training, port access, and trade point toward a subregion in which India feels strategically cornered and China faces fewer risks as it thinks about Taiwan. Getting there will require faster diplomatic machinery, credible security alternatives, and a trade relationship that cushions Bangladesh’s economic graduation. That will mean treating Dhaka less as a development file and more as a strategic actor. And it is exactly the kind of competitive hinge the National Security Strategy says will decide whether Beijing can act with the comfort of inevitability. – War on the Rocks
Asia
Governments across Southeast Asia are taking steps to limit the economic fallout from the conflict in the Middle East, keeping a wary eye on the impact of higher oil prices and supply-chain disruptions. – Wall Street Journal
Azerbaijan said on Thursday that it had been struck by two drones fired from Iranian territory, injuring two people and damaging a local airport, as the conflict that began last week with U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran spreads farther beyond the Middle East. – New York Times
Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto has reassured local Islamic groups that he will withdraw from U.S. President Donald Trump’s ‘Board of Peace’ if the platform does not benefit Palestinians, a government statement said on Friday. – Reuters
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on Friday that three Australian defence personnel were on board a United States submarine that sank an Iranian warship with a torpedo in the Indian Ocean, but stressed they did not take part in the attack. – Reuters
Taiwan’s Defence Minister Wellington Koo on Friday rebuffed the main opposition party, which had proposed a defence budget roughly one-third of the amount sought by the government and set a deadline for U.S. arms purchases that he said was impossible. – Reuters
A spokesman for the National Security Council (NSC) of the Philippines on Thursday said some information on the country’s resupply missions in the South China Sea was compromised and passed on to Chinese intelligence agents. – Reuters
A key partner in Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s ruling coalition is reconsidering its role in the pact ahead of the next elections, a senior leader said, as frustration mounts among the premier’s reformist allies over the government’s response to a scandal at the anti-graft agency. – Reuters
Fuel oil traders in Asia are struggling to secure alternative supply as the Iran war curtails shipments from key Middle Eastern suppliers through the Strait of Hormuz, prompting them to look to the West for replacement cargoes. – Reuters
Vietnam’s police-owned telecom operator Mobifone is in talks with Chinese tech firms over new contracts to build parts of its 5G network, three people briefed on the plan said, despite U.S. warnings of security risks following earlier deals. – Reuters
A second Japanese national has been detained in Iran, Japan’s Foreign Ministry said Friday and demanded the early release of both people. – Associated Press
Taiwan has donated NT$5.14 million (more than $160,000) for emergency operations and life-saving equipment to Israel amid Iranian ballistic missiles strikes on the Jewish state, expressing “solidarity” with a fellow democracy under constant threat as China continues to support Iran. – Algemeiner
Europe
European Union Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security Maros Sefcovic said on Thursday he believed the U.S. would respect the terms of the trade deal signed with the EU last year after receiving assurances from his American counterparts. – Reuters
In an area of London known as Little Tehran, the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei prompted spontaneous street parties, dancing and fireworks. Shoppers still smile as some stores hand out sweet pastries, traditional in Persian culture when there’s cause for celebration. – Reuters
European powers said on Thursday they would work together to safeguard shipping in the Red Sea and send naval and other assets to protect Cyprus as the expanding U.S.–Iran war entered its sixth day. – Reuters
Pope Leo released a video on Thursday praying that God would help world leaders renounce war as a means of resolving conflicts in an unusual appeal as the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran pressed on for the sixth day. – Reuters
Iceland’s government will propose to its parliament to hold a referendum during the autumn on whether to resume European Union accession talks abandoned more than a decade ago, public broadcaster RUV reported on Thursday, citing sources. – Reuters
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said on Thursday he was “not deaf” to criticism that he goes overboard in praising Donald Trump but argued the U.S. president deserved it. – Reuters
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on Thursday welcomed French President Emmanuel Macron’s pledge to expand his country’s nuclear deterrent but said the U.S. nuclear umbrella would remain the ultimate guarantor of European security. – Reuters
The “special relationship” between Britain and the United States remains intact and they continue to share intelligence, Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Thursday, after Donald Trump rebuked him for hesitating to support U.S. strikes on Iran. – Reuters
Italy is ready to protect its economy and households from the fallout of the Middle East crisis and is finalising measures to support exporters as energy prices rise and shipping routes come under strain, Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said on Thursday. – Reuters
A Syrian refugee who stabbed a tourist at Berlin’s Holocaust memorial last year has been sentenced to 13 years in prison on charges of attempted murder, among others, said a Berlin court spokesperson on Thursday. – Reuters
Greek seafarers held a 24-hour strike on Thursday, halting local ferry services as they protested over crews stranded in the Gulf amid the escalating Middle East war, while the leading global union and shipping companies reached a deal on repatriation and wages. – Reuters
Czech Republic lawmakers on Thursday rejected a motion to lift the immunity from prosecution of Prime Minister Andrej Babiš in a $2 million fraud case involving European Union subsidies. – Associated Press
Finland’s government wants to remove some restrictions on nuclear weapons, allowing such arms to be brought to its territory, marking a major shift for the Nordic nation. – Bloomberg
The prime minister convened a press conference on Thursday to enumerate the ways in which the country was both helping its allies and protecting its citizens in the region. The same day, his Defence Secretary John Healey visited Cyprus — almost four days after the UK’s base on the island was hit by a drone. – Bloomberg
France has reached out to the governments of Italy and Greece to coordinate efforts in the Eastern Mediterranean as tensions over the war in Iran flare, a person close to French President Emmanuel Macron said. – Bloomberg
Israel’s Ministry for Diaspora Affairs and Combating Antisemitism has published a new report detailing dozens of activists and organizations affiliated with the European wing of the Muslim Brotherhood, which researchers characterized as acting “autonomous” from its Middle East allies rather than under their direction. – Algemeiner
Italy will send a naval vessel or vessels to protect Cyprus from further Iranian attacks “in the next few days,” Italy’s defense minister said on Thursday. – Defense News
Giulio Meotti writes: This is why Europeans are terrified of fighting this war. Because they already have it at home. In 1989, when Ayatollah Khomeini issued a fatwa against Salman Rushdie, thousands of Muslims took to the streets in Britain and France calling for the writer’s death. When Khomeini launched the fatwa against Rushdie, Polish dissident Adam Michnik wrote: “A world in which a fanatic who rules Iran can pay assassins all over the world is a world in which no one is safe.” […] It is nothing but this: fear disguised as noble words. This is not about Iran. It is about us, Europeans. And the fact that we are old, terrified, increasingly useless and increasingly submissive. – Arutz Sheva
John Kampfner writes: Many observers worry that Orban might refuse to leave office, claiming he was cheated out of victory. This is not impossible. What’s more likely is that he would spend the four to six weeks that the outgoing parliament is likely to continue to sit, in which his two-thirds majority allows him to make constitutional changes, to reinforce his parallel levers of power. He would then, with the help of Trump and Putin, do all he could to undermine Magyar, to make a rapprochement with Brussels politically dangerous, and wait his turn again, as a hamstrung administration flounders. Just as has happened elsewhere in Europe. Just as happened in the United States. – Foreign Policy
Africa
China, the U.S. and other Western governments have mounted an unusually coordinated push to get Ghana to halt a gold royalty hike they say could harm some of the world’s biggest miners, according to three sources with knowledge of the matter and a letter from an industry body. – Reuters
Somalia’s parliament has backed constitutional changes that could extend the president’s term in office by a year and push back planned elections. – Reuters
The United States, European Union and others said in a joint statement on Thursday they were profoundly concerned about “continued and recent” violations of ceasefires in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo and called on all parties to recommit to end fighting and return to negotiations. – Reuters
The leader of the Central African Republic thanked Russia on Thursday for its security backing and asked President Vladimir Putin to help the country tackle serious energy problems. – Reuters
Angola received formal approval from the World Bank and its Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency on Thursday for crucial financial guarantees that will underpin a “debt-for-education” swap the country is lining up to pay for new schools. – Reuters
The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday that technical discussions with Zambian authorities over a new support programme could start in April but that agreement on a new deal was only expected after August’s elections. – Reuters
The Americas
U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum called on investors to tap strategic minerals during a two-day trip to Venezuela, where the Trump administration is forging a business-friendly alliance with a regime whose leader was deposed in January by American commandos. – Wall Street Journal
The U.S. State Department announced the re-establishment of diplomatic and consular relations with Venezuela in a statement issued on Thursday evening, underscoring a rapid rapprochement between the two longtime foes since U.S. commandos captured President Nicolás Maduro two months ago. – New York Times
White House official Stephen Miller told a gathering of Latin American military leaders on Thursday that drug cartels can only be defeated with military force. – Reuters
Peru suspended natural gas exports as it grapples with its worst energy crisis in two decades following a pipeline rupture at the country’s largest gas field, Energy and Mines Minister Angelo Alfaro said on Thursday. – Reuters
Jamaica will end a medical cooperation program with Cuba, as the two governments were unable to agree on the terms for a new arrangement, the foreign ministry said on Thursday. – Reuters
The U.S. imposed travel bans on three Chilean officials over the possible construction of a submarine fiber optic cable with China, while warning Peru against ceding control over a Chinese-built mega port. – Associated Press
North America
Canada’s minister in charge of U.S.-Canada trade will head to Washington Friday for talks on the pending White House review of the existing trilateral North American trade pact. – Wall Street Journal
Mexico’s security chief, the man who helped lead the operation that killed the drug lord known as “El Mencho,” spends his days and nights inside fortified office buildings, including a one-bedroom apartment in the security ministry built for him. – Reuters
A fifth casualty from last week’s speedboat attack on Cuba has been confirmed, the Cuban interior ministry said on Thursday night. – Reuters
Mexico has expanded a probe into fuel smuggling at sea ports highlighted in a 2025 Reuters investigation into cartel-linked fuel crimes, according to a government document reviewed by the news agency outlining actions taken by the administration. – Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he wants to finish the war in Iran first, but then it “will be just a question of time before you and a lot of unbelievable people are going to be going back to Cuba.” – Reuters
U.S. and Mexican negotiators will hold bilateral discussions starting the week of March 16 as part of the joint review of the United States–Mexico–Canada trade agreement, the U.S. Trade Representative’s office said on Thursday. – Reuters
Britain has introduced a visa requirement for citizens of the small Caribbean island nation of St. Lucia and the Central American country of Nicaragua, as its government looks to tighten rules amid pressure from the populist Reform UK party. – Reuters
Rut Diamint and Laura Tedesco write: However the showdown unfolds, Cuba’s traditional revolutionary model is not likely to endure. The regime’s revolutionary character is unsustainable. U.S. pressure will lead to Cuba’s transformation. But any hope the Trump administration might have that such a transformation will be pain free is misplaced. Cuba will transition from a revolutionary state to a postrevolutionary one that lacks a clear new identity. In the weeks ahead, the only thing Cubans can be sure of is their country’s deterioration: longer blackouts, more protests, more arrests, accelerating emigration. Cuba is feeling pressure from both outside and within. The revolution seems close to its final chapter, yet the manner of its demise—and what will follow—is still unknown. – Foreign Affairs
United States
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell sharply and U.S. oil prices pushed above $80 a barrel for the first time in more than a year as the widening Iran conflict threatened to set off convulsions in the world economy. – Wall Street Journal
President Trump is betting his legacy on a new playbook for U.S.-led regime change: We bomb, you decide. In Venezuela, Trump ousted autocrat Nicolás Maduro but left the rest of his leadership intact, with his administration saying it will be up to Venezuelans to push for a democratic transition. – Wall Street Journal
President Trump spent an enormous amount of political capital pushing for Senate confirmation of Pete Hegseth, who was pilloried over his personal problems and lack of experience running a major organization. – Wall Street Journal
President Trump’s pick to replace Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem is a former MMA fighter who has spent years as a “Trump whisperer”—talking to the president, by his own account, “all the time.” – Wall Street Journal
Aung Min Tun drives a delivery van up to 500 miles a day, so he was thrilled when gasoline prices started to drop after President Trump took office last year. Overnight this week, he watched them rise to $3.39 a gallon from about $3.00 at gas stations he visited in Illinois. – Wall Street Journal
President Donald Trump said Thursday he is replacing Homeland Security Secretary Kristi L. Noem, a move that came amid mounting bipartisan criticism of her stewardship of the administration’s mass deportation agenda and efforts to dismantle the Federal Emergency Management Agency. – Washington Post
Editorial: Looking ahead to the final three years of his term, Trump has special credibility with the MAGA base, as does Mullin, to pursue broader immigration reform. If Trump makes it a priority, even if Democrats control Congress next year, there is a grand bargain to be had that abandons performative cruelty and embraces orderly efforts that have a track record of keeping Americans safe.Sen. Thom Tillis (R-North Carolina) has been no fan of Miller or Noem, but he expressed confidence on Thursday that Mullin will “restore competence” and “refocus efforts on quickly distributing disaster aid,” something else Noem struggled to do. “Another big positive,” the senator added, “he likes dogs.” – Washington Post
Eli Lake writes: One of the first political casualties of President Donald Trump’s second Iran war is his relationship with populist movement leader and social media broadcaster Tucker Carlson. In an interview with ABC News’ Jonathan Karl, Trump cast Tucker out of the MAGA tent. “Tucker has lost his way,” Trump told Karl on Thursday. “I knew that a long time ago, and he’s not MAGA. MAGA is saving our country. MAGA is making our country great again. MAGA is America first, and Tucker is none of those things. And Tucker is really not smart enough to understand that.” – The Free Press
Cybersecurity
Canadian lawmakers say OpenAI Chief Executive Sam Altman pledged in conversations to strengthen protocols on notifying police over potentially harmful interactions with the company’s ChatGPT chatbot, and to issue an apology to the town reeling from a deadly school shooting. – Wall Street Journal
OpenAI believes elected officials, not technology company executives, should ultimately determine the limits of how artificial intelligence can be used in national defense, Chief Executive Sam Altman said at an investor conference Thursday. – Wall Street Journal
Artificial intelligence rivals will be allowed on WhatsApp for a year, Meta Platforms said, aiming to head off a possible temporary order from EU antitrust regulators after complaints from competitors shut out of the messaging service. – Reuters
The Middle East conflict will have “immediate repercussions” for European Union security with an increased threat of terrorism, serious and organised crime as well as violent extremism and cyberattacks, European police body Europol told Spanish news agency EFE on Thursday. – Reuters
The FBI “identified and addressed suspicious activities” on its networks, an agency spokesperson said on Thursday, adding that the bureau had “leveraged all technical capabilities to respond.” – Reuters
The Trump administration is following through with its threat to designate artificial intelligence company Anthropic as a supply chain risk in an unprecedented move that could force other government contractors to stop using the AI chatbot Claude. – Associated Press
David Fickling writes: Countries tend to neglect the vulnerabilities in their energy policies until geopolitical emergencies force their hand. The 1973 oil crisis pushed developed nations toward nuclear, coal and domestic petroleum. The 2022 Ukraine invasion accelerated Europe’s embrace of renewables. The current emergency is showing us just how much Asia’s developed democracies, and the world, still depend on one volatile ocean strait in the Middle East. It’s time South Korea and Taiwan stepped up efforts to fix that weakness. – Bloomberg
Defense
Pentagon officials are drawing up plans to replenish U.S. munitions expended fighting Iran over the past week, according to people familiar with the matter, a step in the Trump administration’s efforts to sharply increase the number of missiles manufactured each year. – Wall Street Journal
Despite the excitement about how drones have revolutionized warfare, U.S. strikes on Iran show how jet fighters and naval ships are the Pentagon’s primary tools. Drones have dominated the battlefield in Ukraine, leading some commentators—including Elon Musk—to predict the demise of expensive manned aircraft, helicopters and ships. – Wall Street Journal
Anthropic Chief Executive Dario Amodei has apologized for a leaked memo in which he questioned the Trump administration’s motives for declaring his artificial-intelligence company a supply-chain risk and severing its government relationships. – Wall Street Journal
The Pentagon needs an additional $12 billion through 2031 to boost declining readiness rates of the F-35 fighter, the world’s biggest weapons program and a key part of the US arsenal in the Iran War, program officials have told congressional auditors. – Bloomberg
The North American Aerospace Defense Command detected and tracked two Russian Tu-142 maritime patrol aircraft operating within the Alaskan and Canadian Air Defense Identification Zones on Wednesday. – Defense News
The Pentagon is set to order 30,000 one-way attack drones “over the next few days” as it determines the first winners of its Drone Dominance initiative, a department official told lawmakers today. – Breaking Defense
After being rerouted to support operations in the Middle East against the Iranian regime, the aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford is expected to remain at sea for 11 months, according to Vice Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Jim Kilby. – Breaking Defense
James B. Meigs writes: Today, an Arizona tech company builds the LUCAS drone, a virtual clone of the Shahed, but enhanced with a variant of Starlink’s satellite-broadband antenna to provide real-time targeting. Last weekend, the U.S. military began launching LUCAS drones against targets in Iran. The use of one-way attack drones “shows that technological innovation doesn’t flow in a single direction from more advanced states to less advanced ones,” says digital warfare expert Steven Feldstein. “Rather, it demonstrates that new innovations come from a variety of sources.” The U.S. still has the world’s best military. But breakthrough ideas can come from surprising quarters. Let’s make sure we stay in the lead by learning from our enemies and keeping our friends close. – Wall Street Journal