Trump Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: March

President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke by phone on February 4, with both sides framing the call as a bid to keep channels open ahead of Trump’s planned trip to China in March. Beijing used the engagement to elevate Taiwan — calling it “the most important issue” in the bilateral relationship — and urged Washington to handle arms sales to the island “with great caution.” Trump, for his part, downplayed Taiwan tensions and instead emphasized positive trade and economic interactions. All told, the call signaled intent to manage the relationship, but it produced no visible progress on the deeper disputes driving the rivalry.

Even as leader-level diplomacy remains intact, the administration continues to treat China’s leverage over U.S. national security — especially in strategic inputs and supply chains — as a core vulnerability to unwind. The administration’s approach centers around expanding domestic rare earth mining and processing capacity, as well as building allied supply-chain partnerships that reduce reliance on China in defense and other critical sectors. The objective appears straightforward: to preserve today’s tactical trade truce while seeking to strip China of coercive tools it can weaponize against Washington in a future crisis or diplomatic dust-up.

That same logic also shaped U.S. moves toward Taiwan. In mid-February, Washington finalized a long-awaited reciprocal trade agreement with Taipei that locks in a 15 percent tariff rate and targets reductions in Taiwan’s nontariff barriers. Beijing predictably criticized the deal; however, it smartly raises the costs of Chinese coercion by deepening economic alignment alongside existing security cooperation.

The Trump administration’s February efforts punished authoritarian adversaries, such as Russia and China, and enhanced public-private collaboration to secure critical infrastructure. Continued workforce shortages and organizational upheaval at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), however, are overshadowing these positive initiatives.

In March, CISA will hold virtual townhalls to solicit industry perspectives on its cyber incident reporting requirements — assuming Congress resolves the partial government shutdown by then. The shutdown is also affecting CISA’s ability to get other federal agencies to implement cybersecurity directives. Concurrently, CISA’s shifting priorities risk eliminating important programs necessary to secure federal and private networks.

Meanwhile, the Department of Justice (DOJ) convicted a Chinese national on 14 counts of economic espionage and theft of AI technologies on Beijing’s behalf. Separately, DOJ also secured a guilty plea from a U.S. defense contractor accused of selling trade secrets to a Russian cyber-tools broker. The Department of the Treasury, meanwhile, sanctioned a Russian national, his company, and five additional entities for the theft and distribution of malicious cyber exploits. The State Department also sanctioned the broker and another company facilitating this operation.

The Federal Communications Commission expanded its national security focus by rechartering the Communications Security, Reliability, and Interoperability Council with a focus on network security, submarine cable resilience, and other national security-related topics. Likewise, the National Institute of Standards and Technology is seeking industry input on standard-setting for autonomous AI agents.

The Environmental Protection Agency announced a $9.5 million cybersecurity grant program for the water sector. While this is a step in the right direction, the program lacks multiyear funding and clear appropriations.

After the Islamic Republic of Iran refused to accede to American demands at the negotiating table, the United States and Israel launched an ambitious, large-scale war against the regime on February 28. Pentagon leaders stated that the American military objectives were to “destroy” the threat of Tehran’s ballistic missile arsenal, its navy, and the remnants of its nuclear program. By March 4, while the ultimate duration and outcome of the conflict remained unclear, the two militaries had achieved significant progress toward those goals, albeit at a cost.

In the first days of the operation, the United States and Israel demonstrated unprecedented coordination and delivered impressive blows against Iranian military capabilities. U.S. and Israeli forces reportedly struck more than 2,000 targets combined in the initial stages of the operation, including top regime leadership.

By March 3, according to the commander of U.S. Central Command, Adm. Brad Cooper, Tehran responded by firing more than 500 ballistic missiles and more than 2,000 drones at military installations and civilian sites across the region, including in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Turkey, and Israel. Six American service members were killed and several more wounded by Iranian strikes by the afternoon of March 2.

While the total number of ballistic missiles fired in this conflict has already exceeded, or will exceed, that of the 12-Day War in less than half the time, daily Iranian ballistic missile launches have decreased rapidly since the beginning of the conflict — thanks to American and Israeli strikes targeting ballistic missile stockpiles, launchers, and facilities.

The National Energy Dominance Council marked its first anniversary on February 14, and FDD hosted its chair, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, its executive director, Jarrod Agen, and other senior council officials for a public event assessing the state of American energy dominance. The gathering covered national security issues tied to oil, gas, coal, nuclear power, AI power demand, and the resiliency of the electricity grid. Readers can watch the full conversations on FDD’s website.

During the week of February 23, the United States hosted European ministers in Washington for broad discussions on the future of U.S.-European energy relations. Greece’s energy minister met with Secretary Burgum and Energy Secretary Chris Wright to discuss the implementation of the vertical corridor for American liquefied natural gas supply to Eastern and Central Europe. Bosnia’s foreign minister also shared a summary and photos of the conference.

On February 28, the United States and Israel launched a joint military operation targeting the Islamic Republic of Iran. Three days prior, Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia boosted oil exports — a sign of close market coordination between Washington and Riyadh. The U.S. and Israeli military are prioritizing targeting Iranian capabilities that threaten regional oil infrastructure and tanker traffic — missiles, drones, and naval assets — while President Trump announced on March 3 that the U.S. government will enter the tanker insurance market and offer naval escorts to get tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz.

Trilateral peace talks between American, Ukrainian, and Russian officials continued in February as the White House presses for a settlement by summer. But so far, the negotiations have yielded no breakthroughs on core issues.

The first two rounds, held in Abu Dhabi on January 23-24 and February 4-5, focused on implementation and U.S.-led monitoring of a potential ceasefire. The second round produced the first POW exchange between Russia and Ukraine in five months, and U.S. European Command announced it would resume high-level military-to-military dialogue with Moscow. In addition, the U.S. and Russian envoys reportedly discussed a handshake agreement to continue abiding by the expired New START treaty’s core limits. But President Trump and the State Department’s top arms control officials later contradicted them — suggestive of poor internal coordination.

The third round, held in Geneva on February 17-18, shifted focus to thornier political questions, including the fate of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region and security guarantees for Kyiv. Whereas Russia’s military intelligence chief led its delegation at the Abu Dhabi talks, this time, Moscow dispatched Kremlin aide Vladimir Medinsky, who predictably seems to have dug in his heels.

Presidents Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke by phone on February 25 ahead of bilateral U.S.-Ukrainian and U.S.-Russian meetings the following day. Kyiv wants the next round of trilateral talks to produce a summit with Vladimir Putin to resolve the issues of territory and security guarantees. But the Kremlin insists that Putin will meet with Zelenskyy only after Kyiv bends to Moscow’s demands.

The integrated air and missile defense system, uniting U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) with the militaries of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, demonstrated its effectiveness by successfully intercepting the majority of Iran’s ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones targeting the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, according to news reports.

The UAE neutralized 163 threats, comprising nine ballistic missiles, six cruise missiles, and 148 drones. Kuwait recorded the highest tally with 380 interceptions, including 97 ballistic missiles and 283 drones. Bahrain downed 129 threats (70 missiles and 59 drones), while Qatar intercepted 12 (seven ballistic missiles and five drones) and downed two Iranian Su-24 fighter jets. Saudi Arabia intercepted two drones.

The large-scale Iranian assault unified the GCC against Tehran and prompted a forceful joint statement in which it harshly denounced “the devastating and treacherous attacks that deliberately targeted civilian infrastructure, essential services, and residential areas across member states, inflicting extensive material damage, endangering lives, and instilling widespread fear.”

The council said it reviewed urgent coordinated measures to restore security and reestablish regional stability and expressed its rejection and condemnation of Iran’s “heinous assaults on GCC countries.” The GCC did not denounce American and Israeli strikes on Iran.

The United States continues to prioritize deterrence throughout the Indo-Pacific, while portions of its regional economic agenda may be endangered due to the Supreme Court’s ruling against President Trump’s tariffs.

Starting in mid-February and running through March, Japanese and American forces launched an expanded iteration of “Iron Fist” joint military exercises, including 19 deployments across Okinawa, a key regional U.S. base, and the Ryukyu Islands, the Japanese territories closest to Taiwan.

Following annual bilateral talks between American and Filipino defense officials, Washington also pledged to increase its deployments of advanced missile systems to the Philippines, extending a trend of past U.S. Army and Marine deployments of both long-range and short-range systems to the country’s northern islands.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide victory in the country’s legislative elections has also prompted Tokyo and Washington to accelerate the implementation of their trade agreement, with Japanese investors announcing $36 billion in funding for critical mineral, oil and gas, and power infrastructure projects across the United States.

Likewise, Japan attended the State Department’s first Critical Minerals Ministerial meeting, which included representatives from India, South Korea, and Australia, to discuss shared efforts to erode China’s mining and processing monopoly.

However, the effect of the Supreme Court’s ruling on Trump’s tariff powers may undermine efforts to sustain economic agreements throughout the region. Shortly after the court announced the ruling, Indian trade officials delayed a planned meeting with their American counterparts intended to cement an interim agreement, while proposed sectoral tariffs may disrupt key regional supply chains.

President Trump hosted the first meeting of his Board of Peace on February 19 in Washington. More than 50 country representatives attended, 27 of whom came from nations that have officially joined the board. At the convening, Trump addressed concerns about diminishing the role of the United Nations on the world stage, stating that the Board of Peace is “going to be working with the United Nations very closely.” He also told attendees that the board may begin to play an oversight role for the United Nations.

Thus far, member countries have pledged more than $7 billion in aid for Gaza collectively, with Trump pledging an additional $10 billion. The meeting also included announcements regarding the deployment of 5,000 Palestinian police officers to Gaza in the coming months and pledges from Indonesia, Morocco, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, and Albania to commit troops to serve in the International Stabilization Force established under UN Security Council Resolution 2803. Presently, the Board of Peace is a mixed coalition including both traditional U.S. allies alongside states with checkered records of support for American foreign policy objectives, such as Turkey and Qatar.

Finally, the deputy representative of the United States to the United Nations, Ambassador Tammy Bruce, addressed the UN Security Council on February 24, decrying Chinese and Iranian support for ongoing Russian aggression in Ukraine. Bruce reinforced Trump’s commitment to “peace prevailing” through diplomacy.

The United States launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran on February 28, alongside the Israeli Operation Roaring Lion, which the White House described as “a precise, overwhelming military campaign to eliminate the imminent nuclear threat posed by the Iranian regime, destroy its ballistic missile arsenal, degrade its proxy terror networks, and cripple its naval forces.” President Trump opted for military action after he promised protesting Iranians support in January and after three rounds of indirect negotiations with the Islamic Republic in February failed to deliver results.

On the first day of operations, the United States and Israel killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Since February 28, the two countries have killed dozens of regime leaders and conducted more than 2,000 strikes on targets in the Islamic Republic.

President Trump ended his February 28 announcement of the operation with a message to the Iranian people, saying, “when we are finished, take over your government, it will be yours to take.”

Elsewhere in the U.S. government, VOA Persian, the government’s premier Persian-language broadcaster, has been embroiled in scandal over allegations of censorship of Iranian protester slogans that favored Iran’s exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi.

On February 25, the Treasury Department designated more than 30 individuals, entities, and vessels in Iran’s shadow fleet used to smuggle and sell oil as well as components of the regime’s weapons procurement and production networks. On February 6, the State Department also designated more than 30 targets involved in the regime’s illicit oil trade.

The United States and Israel coordinated a devastating attack on the regime in Iran starting on February 28 that eliminated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This was perhaps the greatest demonstration ever of alignment and cooperation in the U.S.-Israel relationship. By lashing out desperately at Gulf countries in response to the attack, Iran has aligned the interests of Israel and its Arab neighbors, injecting new life into the seemingly flagging Abraham Accords.

In his State of the Union address on February 24, President Trump promoted his “peace through strength” approach, including his efforts to reach a deal with Iran. Trump also touted his role in the return of all Israeli hostages from Gaza, one of the few lines that garnered bipartisan approval.

Meanwhile, representatives from more than 40 countries gathered in Washington on February 19 for the inaugural meeting of the Board of Peace, pledging around $17 billion for Gaza’s reconstruction. Five countries have committed to sending personnel to staff the International Stabilization Force to enforce the ceasefire. Plans for Gaza are advancing, but Hamas is taking advantage of the ceasefire to reassert itself in Gaza.

In a first, the State Department announced that it would provide on-site consular services in Efrat, a West Bank Israeli community. However, after the Israeli cabinet eased restrictions on land purchases in the disputed territory, a Trump official clarified that the president opposes Israeli annexation of the West Bank.

The Trump administration continues to move toward a more transactional posture in the U.S.-Republic of Korea alliance, one that risks compounding South Korea’s uncertainty about Washington’s long-term commitments. Over the past month, since the publication of the National Defense Strategy in late January, the Trump administration has provided little reassurance that Washington remains committed to the denuclearization of North Korea. The administration has not, for example, strengthened collaboration mechanisms or offered explicit statements on how U.S. posture and extended deterrence will be sustained. These ambiguities can erode confidence in the alliance’s strategic direction.

At the same time, the Trump administration’s trade policy has added a second obstacle. After the U.S. Supreme Court struck down many of the administration’s earlier tariffs imposed under emergency authorities, President Trump announced a new 15 percent global tariff, up from 10 percent, under a different legal authority. The Trump administration has also signaled expanded use of Section 301 investigations as a pathway to impose additional country-specific tariffs.

South Korean trade experts have warned that a more expansive use of Section 301 could put major South Korean exports at risk, including automobiles, steel, and aluminum, as well as higher-value commodities, such as pharmaceuticals, wind turbines, robotics, and industrial machinery. The result is the Trump administration undercutting two key pillars that have historically reinforced one another and sustained a robust alliance: integrated security cooperation and interdependent economic ties grounded in stable trade relations.

February ended with a joint U.S.-Israeli declaration of war against Iran. In the lead-up, the Lebanese Armed Forces’ (LAF’s) January declaration of taking “effective control” over the South Litani Area is still not producing change on the ground. Throughout February, Israel continued to strike Hezbollah’s assets and personnel involved in regeneration efforts south of the Litani River in parallel with the group’s attempts to rebuild its forces and infrastructure in the area.

The Lebanese government’s unchanged position on Hezbollah and its unwillingness to take action enabled the group’s continued rearmament and growing boldness. Lebanese reports, for example, indicated Hezbollah had made “concerning … moves from [its stronghold] in Dahiyeh toward the U.S. Embassy in Beirut’s environs” just prior to the conflict — prompting the State Department to evacuate the embassy’s nonemergency personnel. Otherwise, Washington reacted with relative indifference to Lebanon, while the Pentagon reportedly supported continuing current levels of aid for the LAF.

This culminated in Hezbollah feeling bold and capable enough to attack Israel from south of the Litani River in the early morning hours of March 1. Predictably, Israel responded ferociously — prompting the Lebanese government to finally proscribe Hezbollah’s military activities and order its security agencies to restrain the group. But in the days since, Hezbollah’s attacks have only become more brazen. Positively, Washington is not restraining the renewed Israeli campaign — which aims to bring about Hezbollah’s collapse. But neither is the administration pressing Lebanon to immediately act on its declaration to restrain and disarm Hezbollah before the war expands even further.

The United Kingdom, France, Sweden, Germany, and the Netherlands accused Russia of using a chemical weapon to murder Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny in an Arctic prison in 2024. Based on their analysis of Navalny’s biomedical samples, the five nations concluded that Moscow employed the neurotoxin epibatidine — a toxin derived from the poisonous skin of Ecuadorian dart frogs. Under U.S. law, the administration is required to issue its own determination regarding the use of chemical weapons. If it concurs with the European assessment, it must impose sanctions on Russia.

The last remaining U.S.-Russian nuclear arms control treaty, New START, expired on February 5, amid renewed U.S. accusations that the pact was insufficient to address the nuclear threats posed by both Russia and China. The treaty’s expiration creates an opportunity for the United States to undertake a comprehensive review to ensure its nuclear forces sufficiently deter Moscow and Beijing. The administration has called on China to participate in negotiations toward a trilateral arms control accord that addresses the full spectrum of threats posed by Russia’s and China’s arsenals and delivery systems.

The United States accused China of conducting covert nuclear explosive tests in violation of an informal global moratorium on such activities. In remarks delivered in Washington and Geneva, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control and Nonproliferation Christopher Yeaw provided new details about a secret Chinese test in June 2020. According to CNN reporting, U.S. intelligence assesses that Beijing is conducting these tests to advance the development of miniaturized next-generation nuclear warheads.

The Trump administration has begun the drawdown of U.S. forces in Syria, with U.S. troops leaving their base in al-Tanf in southeastern Syria. The U.S. drawdown has led to the transfer of more than 5,700 Islamic State fighters to Iraq, while tens of thousands of Islamic State family members have been released after the previously U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces emptied out the al-Hol and Roj camps in eastern Syria.

The United States carried out a series of strikes against the Islamic State, with the primary targets being “ISIS infrastructure and weapons storage” sites, according to U.S. Central Command. The Islamic State has escalated attacks against the U.S.-backed Syrian government, which is led by the former head of al-Qaeda’s branch in Syria. A recent report by the United Nations Security Council Analytical Support and Monitoring Team said that the Islamic State maintains more than 3,000 fighters in Iraq and Syria.

Meanwhile, after pressuring the Nigerian government to take decisive action against violence directed at Christians and launching airstrikes against Islamic terrorists on December 25, 2025, the United States has deployed more than 200 soldiers to Nigeria. The U.S. deployment includes “intelligence analysts, advisers and trainers to assist the country’s armed forces in targeted counterterrorism operations aimed in part at protecting Nigerian Christians,” according to The New York Times. The United States has described the deployment as a train, advise, and assist mission designed to aid the Nigerian military in targeting terror groups such as Boko Haram and the Islamic State’s West Africa Province.

February saw the withdrawal of U.S. troops from three bases in Syria: Shaddadi and Qasrak in northeastern Syria and al-Tanf in southern Syria. These departures mark a clear signal of Washington’s impending drawdown of its small but effective footprint in the country.

The withdrawals coincided with two alarming developments. First, a mass escape occurred in the al-Hol detention camp, home to thousands of Islamic State (ISIS)-linked families, including radicalized women who had established a mini-caliphate inside the camp. In large part, elements of the Syrian government’s forces reportedly facilitated the breakout. As of February 24, all 23,000 residents had left the camp, with an estimated 15,000 to 20,000 unaccounted for and now roaming freely inside Syria. Second, the withdrawal aligned with an uptick in ISIS attacks in northeastern Syria, including at least eight assaults targeting Syrian government soldiers since February 21.

Encouragingly, the U.S.-brokered agreement between the Syrian government and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), aimed at stabilizing northeastern Syria, is holding. Both sides have held high-level meetings to discuss military integration, a critical but previously unresolved issue that led to clashes between the two sides in January. Additionally, U.S. mediation has not been limited to the SDF file. Washington has also reportedly facilitated a prisoner exchange between the Syrian government and Druze factions in Suwayda, involving both fighters and civilians captured by the two sides during last July’s unrest.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan attended the inaugural Board of Peace summit in Washington on February 19 but departed without securing a role for Turkish troops in Gaza’s International Stabilization Force (ISF). Ankara’s exclusion represents a significant setback for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has long sought to establish a direct Turkish military presence in Gaza and invested considerable political capital in persuading the White House and international partners to accept Turkish participation.

At the summit, the board formally announced Albania, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, and Morocco as the Muslim-majority nations committing troops to the ISF. Turkey’s absence from this list was conspicuous, particularly after Fidan publicly insisted that Ankara was “prepared to provide troops.” The decision indicates that the board ultimately rejected Turkey’s bid for a direct military role. Although Fidan also signaled Ankara’s willingness to assist in rebuilding Gaza’s internal security institutions, Egypt and Jordan were instead entrusted with leading police reconstruction efforts, leaving Turkey confined largely to logistical and auxiliary support functions.

Turkey’s exclusion reflects broader geopolitical mistrust. Ankara’s sustained anti-Israel rhetoric throughout the Gaza war and its political alignment with Hamas have raised alarm among key stakeholders. Mistrust of Ankara’s intentions is further reinforced by its continued efforts to shield the Islamist regime in Tehran. Turkish officials have repeatedly lobbied Washington against military action targeting Iran, a position reaffirmed on February 21 by Turkey’s parliamentary speaker, Numan Kurtulmus, who warned that any strike on Iran would constitute “a great disaster.”