Hezbollah’s Recklessness May Restore Israel’s ‘Security Zone’

Hezbollah built much of its political legitimacy on the claim that it forced Israel to withdraw from its “security zone” in southern Lebanon in 2000. The group’s decision to now join Iran’s war against Israel risks bringing Israeli forces back to southern Lebanon in force.

Opening a Second Front

Hezbollah was severely weakened during Israel’s campaign against the group in 2023-2024. When the war against Iran erupted on February 28, Hezbollah initially appeared to staying out of the fray.

That changed after it was confirmed that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was eliminated in Tehran. On March 2, Hezbollah opened a new front, launching rockets and drones into northern Israel.

Israel responded with large-scale airstrikes against Hezbollah targets — operations approaching the intensity of the ongoing U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) also ordered evacuations in more than 50 Hezbollah-linked villages in southern Lebanon.

By March 3, Israeli ground forces had moved into tactical positions inside Lebanese territory. Additional evacuation warnings soon followed, including orders for civilians south of the Litani River, Hezbollah’s traditional stronghold. On March 5, an evacuation order was issued by the IDF for Dahiyeh, the district in Beirut where Hezbollah’s headquarters is located.

Invasion of Lebanon a Possibility

Israeli officials have not ruled out a broader ground offensive in southern Lebanon.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated that Lebanon’s Western-backed government still has a final opportunity to prevent escalation by implementing its long-promised plan to disarm Hezbollah.

For now, the IDF has described its expanded deployment as intended “to create an additional layer of security for the residents of northern Israel.”

Despite losses suffered in earlier fighting, Hezbollah continues to launch dozens of rockets and drones daily, sometimes coordinated with Iranian missile attacks. In at least one instance, the group used cluster munition rockets against the Israeli town of Metula.

Implications of Hezbollah’s Stance

Hezbollah’s willingness to endanger Lebanon in service of Tehran’s priorities is consistent with the group’s long-standing role as Iran’s forward military proxy.

Israel may now conclude that eliminating Hezbollah’s military presence in southern Lebanon is necessary to secure its northern border.

Progress in the war against Iran could accelerate this shift. Iranian missile attacks on Israel have slowed, and Tehran appears increasingly focused on Gulf Arab targets. If that trend continues, Washington may support Israel redirecting greater military attention toward Hezbollah.

Will Israel Restore Its Security Zone?

A key question is whether Israel would again establish a long-term security zone in southern Lebanon, similar to the buffer it maintained from 1982 to 2000.

Recent evacuation orders and troop deployments suggest Israeli planners are considering such an option. However, the precedent of Operation Northern Arrows (2024) — which displaced more than a million Lebanese but did not produce a permanent Israeli presence — suggests that any new buffer could also be temporary.

Mark Dubowitz is the CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). For more analysis from Mark and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Mark on X @mdubowitz. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.