Today In Issues:
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Israel has ‘won’ war with Iran, foreign minister says, but goals remain unmet Reichman University’s Nadav Pollak: Israel must not fall into Hezbollah’s trap Israel’s decapitation strategy wipes out another two top Iranians Iran says nuclear doctrine unlikely to change, Hormuz Strait needs new protocol Exclusive: Iran's new supreme leader rejects de-escalation proposals conveyed by intermediaries, Iran official says Netanyahu tells Iranians to go out, celebrate Nowruz: 'IDF is watching you from the skies of Iran' WSJ Editorial: The allies take a pass on Iran NYT’s Bret Stephens: For once, we fight with an equal ally AEI’s Michael Rubin: Iran’s declining ability to fight Hormuz battle Turkey ready to host next round of Russia-Ukraine talks, Fidan tells Lavrov UAE could join any US-led effort to secure Strait of Hormuz, says senior official China makes energy security 'reunification' offer to Taiwan amid Middle East warIn The News
Israel
Israeli airstrikes in Beirut killed at least six people on Wednesday, the Lebanese health ministry said, shaking the heart of the Lebanese capital as Israel intensified its offensive against the Iran-backed Hezbollah group. – Reuters
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said on Tuesday the country had effectively won its war with Iran, but gave no indication of when the conflict might end, saying only that the campaign would continue until its objectives were achieved. – Reuters
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday told the people of Iran to celebrate Nowruz, the Iranian New Year, saying that the IDF is striking “terror operatives on the ground, on the roads, in the squares” and “watching from above.” – Jerusalem Post
The Knesset plenum approved, in its first reading late on Monday, an update to the 2026 state budget, adding NIS 32 billion to the defense budget and raising the country’s deficit ceiling. – Jerusalem Post
The United States has defended Israel against the charge of genocide in the United Nations’ highest court, as Iceland and the Netherlands gave different opinions. – Jerusalem Post
Hezbollah launched a barrage of dozens of rockets at northern Israel and the northern West Bank Tuesday evening, one of which hit a home in the city of Karmiel, though nobody was hurt. – Times of Israel
Iran’s military apparatus is “in distress” and incapable of launching many missiles at Israel, while members of the country’s security forces stay indoors for fear of Israeli and US warplanes, according to an assessment reportedly delivered by the IDF intelligence chief to political leaders. – Times of Israel
A man and a woman, both in their 70s, were killed early Wednesday morning in Ramat Gan as a result of a deadly missile barrage launched from Iran. The barrage included missiles with submunition (cluster) warheads. – Arutz Sheva
During Tuesday’s strikes across Tehran, the Israeli Air Force, under the direction of the IDF Intelligence Directorate, struck command centers, ballistic missile array sites, and additional infrastructure of the Iranian terror regime. – Arutz Sheva
Israel’s Ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, stated in an interview with CNN’s Jim Sciutto that there are alternative leaders in Iran who could potentially open the door to diplomacy. – Arutz Sheva
A U.S. government watchdog is widening its investigation into alleged links between staff at a United Nations aid agency and Hamas, including possible involvement in the October 7th massacre. – Arutz Sheva
Editorial: At this moment, Israelis are serving in reserve duty, mourning their dead, caring for the wounded, trying to keep businesses afloat, and helping children function under emergency conditions. Families are still carrying the weight of October 7. […] It tells broad parts of the public that while they are asked to sacrifice together, their leaders are still busy advancing measures that sharpen internal conflict. The government needs to focus on the ball. That means the war. That means the hostages. That means reservists, the home front, military readiness, reconstruction, and serious preparation for the day after. It means putting aside legislation that is bound to inflame, provoke, and divide. – Jerusalem Post
Nadav Pollak writes: The threat of Hezbollah to Israel is still a real one; Israel should continue to focus on the Iran threat, and not expanding the war in Lebanon. Of course, when it can, Israel should continue target Hezbollah’s weapons and fighters, but not through an unnecessary ground maneuver that won’t achieve much. At the same time, Israel should leverage Lebanon’s public rejection of Hezbollah, and come up with creative ways to help the Lebanese government enforce its sovereignty, not weaken the Lebanese state by attacking its infrastructure. For this objective, Washington can play a pivotal role in working with both the Israeli and the Lebanese governments to come up with ways to prevent an escalation in this war. – The Hill
Chuck Freilich writes: US-Israeli military and strategic cooperation have never been so close, Israel’s standing in the US never so low. Given the war’s unpopularity in American public opinion, a further casualty of the conflict — and one that Israel can ill-afford — will be a significant hit to the bilateral relationship. This is amplified by the growing but unsubstantiated claims that it was Netanyahu who led Trump into the fight; there is no doubt that he has long hoped that the US would ultimately go to war with Iran, but in the weeks before the conflict broke out, it was Netanyahu who reportedly put the brakes on and pushed Trump to wait until both countries were better prepared. Indeed, Israel will have to weigh whether whatever gains were achieved vis-à-vis Iran were worth the price to its relationship with the US. – Middle East Institute
Iran
Israel’s killing of Iranian security chief Ali Larijani removes a veteran leader in Tehran, shaking a regime that had appeared to be weathering thousands of airstrikes with its grip on the country and war-fighting capability intact. – Wall Street Journal
Last week as Iran laid mines in the Persian Gulf, four of the U.S. Navy’s few specialist minesweepers were on the move—to Philadelphia and their eventual decommissioning. – Wall Street Journal
Repeatedly over the past two days, President Trump returned to his central argument for his decision to attack Iran, and to do it at this moment in history. Tehran was on the verge of getting a nuclear weapon, the president insists, and would use it first on Israel, then on the United States. – New York Times
Donald J. Trump told an interviewer in 1988 that if Iran attacked U.S. forces, “I’d do a number on Kharg Island. I’d go in and take it.” Nearly 40 years later, the fate of Iran’s main oil export hub, an island that Mr. Trump now calls the country’s “crown jewel,” is emerging as a pivot point in the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. – New York Times
President Donald Trump on Tuesday said the United States had been informed by most of its NATO allies that they did not want to get involved with the country’s military operation in Iran, a move he described as a “very foolish mistake.” – Reuters
Iran executed a man accused of spying for Israel, according to the judiciary’s Mizan news agency, which identified him as Kurosh Keyvani. – Reuters
A defiant Iran said Israel’s killing of security chief Ali Larijani and other key officials would not hinder its operations with replacements swiftly appointed, as Israel launched a swathe of strikes against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. – Reuters
Iran’s stance against the development of nuclear weapons won’t significantly change, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi told Al Jazeera in remarks relayed by Iranian media on Wednesday, cautioning that the new supreme leader is yet to publicly express his view on the matter. – Reuters
Iran’s new supreme leader has rejected de-escalation proposals conveyed to Tehran by intermediaries, demanding Israel and the United States first be “brought to their knees”, a senior Iranian official said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Rosatom, Russia’s state nuclear energy corporation, condemned a strike on the territory of Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant on Tuesday and called for de-escalation around the facility. – Reuters
As U.S. and Israeli air strikes pound Tehran, Iranian rescue workers are braving the risk of secondary attacks and say they are suffering trauma from the horror of pulling dead children from the rubble. – Reuters
A projectile hit an area near Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant on Tuesday evening, however it caused no damage or injuries, Iran told the International Atomic Energy Agency. – Reuters
Tens of millions more people will face acute hunger if the Iran war continues through to June, according to analysis from the World Food Programme released on Tuesday. – Reuters
President Donald Trump told reporters on Tuesday that the United States was not ready to leave the military operation in Iran yet, but that “we’ll be leaving in pretty much the very near future”. – Reuters
European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said on Tuesday diplomatic ways have to be found in order to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, as U.S. President Donald Trump calls on allies to send warships there to secure transit amid the war in Iran. – Reuters
About 90 ships including oil tankers have crossed the Strait of Hormuz since the outset of the war with Iran and it is still exporting millions of barrels of oil at a time when the waterway has been effectively closed, according to maritime and trade data platforms. – Associated Press
Crowds gathered in Iranian cities Tuesday after authorities called for nationwide rallies to defy enemy “plots,” state television said, over two weeks into the war with Israel and the United States. – Agence France-Presse
A woman stands on a rooftop listening to the sounds of the city below. There is only the dull hum of traffic tonight. But she knows how easily that can change. It is usually the dogs who notice the sound first and begin to bark furiously. The noise of aircraft. Then the ominous percussion of explosions. A ball of orange rising from an airstrike in a familiar neighbourhood. – BBC
Despite numerous reports in recent days about a potential imminent and multi-sided US invasion of parts of Iran, including plans to retrieve 60% enriched uranium, The Jerusalem Post understands that these reports are exaggerated. – Jerusalem Post
A number of sources told The Jerusalem Post that if President Donald Trump decides to launch a military operation to take control of the Strait of Hormuz – an operation intended to ensure freedom of navigation – it could significantly prolong the war “by weeks, if not months.” – Jerusalem Post
Editorial: The tragedy of this Western division is that the real winners are Iran, Russia and China. They’re working together to defeat the U.S. in the Gulf and weaken American deterrence. If Iran emerges with a veto over Strait of Hormuz oil flows, and U.S. credibility is damaged, Mr. Trump will be hurt. But the bigger losers in the long run will be countries that depend on American power to deter aggressors. See Ukraine 2014 and 2022, and Gaza 2023. The allies may come to regret their short-term Schadenfreude about Mr. Trump’s Hormuz predicament. – Wall Street Journal
Jim Geraghty writes: The Iranian mullahs weren’t exactly known as economic savants before the shooting started. Even if they retain power after the war, they’re going to be broke. Rebuilding their military will be expensive, and handouts for Hamas or Hezbollah, or a nuclear-weapons program, will look like unaffordable luxuries. The war is causing economic stress for the U.S. and its allies, but it’s worsening an ongoing economic nightmare for the Iranians. – Washington Post
Bret Stephens writes: The killing of Larijani may help dispel the odd gloom that’s descended on a war that is persistently dismantling Iran’s ability to put up a meaningful fight, beyond the desperate play of seeking to shut the Strait of Hormuz. That, too, won’t last long, thanks to the United States achieving what’s known among war planners as “escalation dominance.” Good thing that, in this war, the United States for once had a bold and competent ally to help us achieve it. – New York Times
Mike Evans writes: Kharg Island today represents the economic pressure point of the Iranian regime. Disrupt the flow of oil through this single location, and the entire system begins to fracture. The implications extend far beyond Iran. Countries such as China that rely heavily on Iranian oil exports would suddenly face a dramatically altered energy reality. Control of the island could shift the balance of global energy influence and strengthen the strategic position of the United States and its allies. Sometimes, the most powerful move in geopolitics is not destroying an adversary’s infrastructure but controlling the asset that keeps that adversary alive. Kharg Island may prove to be exactly that asset. – Jerusalem Post
Michael Rubin writes: Iran’s drone fleet is no joke; it first began utilizing crude drones in 1985 to conduct surveillance over Iraqi trenches. But Iran has used its top-tier drones to target Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Those drones left are relatively older and are often operated by line-of-sight rather than GPS. Any U.S. Marines on islands offshore Iran will need to operate with care, but if the brightly uniformed Swiss Guards in Vatican City can successfully operate anti-drone countermeasures, so can the U.S Closure of the Strait of Hormuz represents psychological warfare rather than a long-term, economically consequential Iranian move. Panicking, however, manages to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by prioritizing Iranian propaganda over energy realities. – Washington Examiner
Kenneth M. Pollack writes: But when you gamble, the odds are always stacked in favor of the house. In the current war, the Iranian regime is the house, and the United States is playing for regime change. Washington must do what it can to shift the odds in its favor, and that means helping the Lebanese government defang Hezbollah and providing direct air support to an Iranian popular revolt. Both would give the United States a greater chance of collapsing the house around an odious Iranian regime—and a greater say in what follows. – Foreign Affairs
Russia and Ukraine
Russian troops have taken control of the village of Sopych in Ukraine’s northern Sumy region and Kalenyky in the eastern Donetsk region, the Defence Ministry said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan reiterated that Turkey is ready to host the next round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, during a phone call with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Tuesday, Turkey’s foreign ministry said. – Reuters
Ukraine accepted the European Union’s offer of technical support and funding to restore oil flows through the damaged Druzhba pipeline on Tuesday but also signalled any resumption of Russian crude deliveries to Hungary and Slovakia was still weeks away. – Reuters
Streaking across the sky with a terrifying wail, a Ukrainian-made quadrocopter swerves with unlikely agility for a device resembling a winged lava lamp. Once a long-shot concept, the interceptor drone developed by private firm Wild Hornets is now key to Ukraine’s defence against Russian drones – and soon, possibly, to combatting Iranian ones in the Gulf. – Reuters
A senior Russian security official warned on Tuesday that the pace and development of Ukrainian drone production meant that no Russian region was safe from attack. – Reuters
Britain and Ukraine agreed to work together to sell drone technology abroad during a visit on Tuesday by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, meant to reinforce support for Kyiv when surging oil prices from war in Iran have been a boon for Moscow. – Reuters
A Russian attack damaged industrial, port and energy infrastructure facilities in Ukraine’s Odesa region on the Black Sea overnight, causing disruption to power supplies in separate settlements in the southern part of the region, a local official said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called Russia and Iran “brothers in hatred” on Tuesday as he sought support from U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer at a time when the Iran war has robbed momentum from U.S.-brokered talks to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. – Associated Press
Moscow and Beijing are driving closer collaboration between authoritarian states and such networks help advance repression globally, according to researchers who used AI to drill into the activities. – Bloomberg
A sanctioned Russian tanker loaded with liquid natural gas is drifting out of control in the Mediterranean with no crew on board and a gaping hole in one side, prompting warnings of a “serious risk of a major ecological disaster”. – BBC
An oil spill which has been blamed on a Russian attack in Ukraine has polluted a major river in Moldova, prompting authorities to cut water supplies to the northern city of Balti. – BBC
Ivan Nagornyak and Fredrik Wesslau write: A well-designed membership-lite framework would acknowledge that Ukraine is already part of Europe’s security architecture. It would give Kyiv a phased but real political voice, reinforce reform incentives, and reassure cautious member states that integration remains conditional and reversible. The challenge now is not whether Ukraine belongs in Europe. That question has been settled on the battlefield and among European leaders. The challenge is whether the EU can design a path that matches the historical and geopolitical imperative. – Foreign Policy
Iraq
Crude exports from Iraq’s Kirkuk fields to Turkey’s Ceyhan port has resumed via pipeline, North Oil Company sources said, after Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) agreed on Tuesday to restart flows. – Reuters
A drone attack targeted the U.S. embassy in Baghdad and an explosion was heard in the area, security sources said early on Wednesday, a day after a series of strikes. – Reuters
Oil prices fell more than $2 per barrel on Wednesday to pare some of Tuesday’s sharp gains after the Iraqi government and Kurdish authorities reached a deal to resume oil exports via Turkey’s Ceyhan port, providing modest relief to concerns about supplies from the Middle East. – Reuters
Lebanon
Israel’s military on Wednesday acknowledged that its tank fire hit a U.N. position in southern Lebanon on March 6, wounding Ghanaian peacekeepers, an incident that underscores the growing risks as Israeli operations expand. – Reuters
With airstrikes rocking Beirut and Israeli troops advancing against Hezbollah, Lebanon’s government has broken a taboo by proposing the first direct talks with Israel in decades. But Lebanese officials say they want the fighting to end first — and it might be too late for that. – Associated Press
An uneasy quiet has fallen on the streets of the usually bustling southern Lebanese coastal city of Tyre. Israel has told civilians in the city – the fifth-largest in Lebanon and one of the oldest in the world – to leave their homes as its war with the Iran-backed Shia Muslim group Hezbollah intensifies. – BBC
Hanin Ghaddar writes: Eventually, Israel should also realise that Hezbollah will only be undone in two scenarios: a regime change in Iran, or a complete dismantlement of its financial system and political power. In the second case, Israel will eventually need the Trump administration’s help to push Lebanon to do more in this regard, now that the Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has called for direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel. During a virtual meeting with European Union officials, Aoun launched his initiative with the goal of reaching a permanent security agreement between the two countries. The international community could build on this unprecedented proposal to reach a peace agreement between Lebanon and Israel, one that would end the conflict for good. – Euronews
Gulf States
An Instagram post on March 7 from Dubai’s official tourism account featured slick visuals of the emirate’s landmark high-rise buildings overlaid with a catchy pop-soundtrack that declares: “Dubai is still the safest place on Earth.” – Wall Street Journal
It took only a few days of Iranian attacks before the Persian Gulf states, which have long relied on American security guarantees, decided they needed more help. Despite the presence of major U.S. bases, or because of them, Iran fired a barrage of missiles and drones at the Gulf. – New York Times
The United Arab Emirates may join a U.S.-led effort to protect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz after Iran all but shut the vital waterway to ships as Tehran wages war with Israel and the United States, a senior Emirati official said on Tuesday. – Reuters
A U.N. body said the execution of Egyptians in Saudi Arabia on drug-related charges was inexcusable and urged Riyadh to pay reparations and change its laws to stop the use of the death penalty for such crimes. – Reuters
Iran has stepped up attacks on Saudi Arabia in recent days, signaling it’s targeting the oil-rich kingdom more aggressively than earlier in the war. – Bloomberg
Despite Jordan’s interception of Iranian missiles aimed at Israel and the Islamic regime’s targeting of sites in the Hashemite Kingdom, Amman has managed to maintain its reputation as a neutral party, an expert told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post
In the wake of Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, terror attack, the Hamas-friendly regime in Qatar demanded that American universities operating campuses in Doha “be aligned and in touch” when it came to their official communications, emails released by the House Education Committee show. On the same day, the dean of Northwestern University’s campus in Qatar (NU-Q) refused to sign on to a statement from his colleagues in the United States criticizing an NU-Q professor who downplayed the attack. – Washington Free Beacon
Amine Ayoub writes: Supply lines through Omani waters, once tacitly tolerated, are now liabilities. Israeli intelligence has long warned that the Axis survives on ambiguity. This strike removes it. Critics will warn of escalation. But the opposite is true. Hesitation now rewards Iranian recklessness. The American and Israeli campaign has already decapitated key command nodes. Expanding pressure on Gulf enablers, through sanctions on banks still routing IRGC funds, can finish the job without boots on the ground. Oman’s pivot would isolate Iran further, starve its proxies, and cement Israel’s strategic depth in the Gulf. – Arutz Sheva
Amr Hamzawy writes: In its place, a more confrontational geopolitical environment is taking shape—one defined by renewed military competition, hardened alliances, and diminished prospects for diplomatic accommodation and security coexistence between Gulf states and Iran. In this sense, the Middle East may be witnessing a return to an earlier era, one in which security dilemmas dominated regional politics and cooperation became increasingly difficult to sustain. Unless a major diplomatic breakthrough halts the current escalation, the Gulf and the broader Middle East may be entering a prolonged period of instability marked by persistent military confrontation, rising economic uncertainty, and the steady narrowing of any space for regional cooperation. The clock, in many ways, seems to be turning backward. – Foreign Affairs
Middle East & North Africa
Global air travel remains severely disrupted after the war in Iran forced the closure of key Middle Eastern hubs including Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi, stranding tens of thousands of passengers. – Reuters
The United States has encouraged Syria to consider sending forces into eastern Lebanon to help disarm Hezbollah, but Damascus is reluctant to embark on such a mission for fear of being sucked into the war in the Middle East and inflaming sectarian tensions, five people briefed on the matter said. – Reuters
Syrian authorities have banned alcohol from restaurants and bars in Damascus, one of the clearest moves yet by the Islamist-led government towards enforcing conservative ways since Ahmed al-Sharaa toppled Bashar al-Assad 15 months ago. – Reuters
Korean Peninsula
Advanced Micro Devices CEO Lisa Su is set to visit Samsung Electronics’ chip production site in Pyeongtaek, South Korea on Wednesday, where she will tour production lines and discuss expanding cooperation beyond memory into foundry manufacturing, a source with knowledge of the trip said. – Reuters
Samsung Electronics’ unionised workers in South Korea voted on Wednesday to authorise a strike, deepening a labour dispute over bonuses and raising the risk of production disruptions at the world’s biggest memory chipmaker. – Reuters
President Donald Trump last year capped tariffs on Japan and South Korea at 15% in exchange for pledges by the two nations to invest a combined $900 billion in the US. Now Tokyo and Seoul are expected to follow through on those promises, even as many aspects of Trump’s tariff campaign remain unclear. – Bloomberg
South Korea’s military has halted all shooting drills involving small firearms – including weapons like rifles or handguns – after a child was struck by a suspected stray bullet at a playground in Daegu city. – BBC
China
Trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing during President Trump’s first term often felt like an existential clash of economic models. Recent talks are more like the management of a fragile status quo. – Wall Street Journal
Hours after President Trump made a request to delay a high-stakes summit with China’s leader, Xi Jinping, it remained unclear when the two leaders would meet. […] But Lin Jian, a ministry spokesman, replied with the same answer each time, saying that Beijing was still discussing the timing of a visit and that he had “no further information to add at this time.” – New York Times
China offered on Wednesday what it said would be energy stability to Taiwan if it agreed to Beijing’s rule, part of a campaign by China to convince the island of the benefits of “reunification”, which it has long rejected. – Reuters
China’s ban on exports of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel is poised to exacerbate fuel shortages and further boost prices for Asian industry and transportation buyers already grappling with tightening supplies caused by the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran. – Reuters
China’s coast guard on Monday warned and drove away a Japanese fishing boat that “intruded” into waters near the Diaoyu Islands, it said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Chinese state oil majors looking to head off supply shortages caused by the war in the Middle East have resumed seeking Russian crude cargoes after a four-month hiatus, taking advantage of a U.S. sanctions waiver, five trade sources said. – Reuters
China won’t help the United States reopen the Strait of Hormuz as requested by President Donald Trump, but it is probably welcoming the delay in Trump’s highly anticipated trip to Beijing as the U.S. risks getting bogged down in the Middle East, analysts say. – Associated Press
Assaf Orion writes: Yet, China will play a significant role after the war, with or without U.S. consent. After the devastation inflicted by the allies on Iran’s military industry, Iran will very likely seek to rebuild with the help of its partner China, and perhaps also North Korea, in return for oil. In this respect, China might offset the war achievements of the United States and Israel, and shorten Iran’s path to military recovery. Washington and Jerusalem will have to work with Beijing on this issue, and the latter will surely have its own demands regarding China’s top strategic priorities. – Haaretz
Alina Polyakova writes: War in the Middle East has overshadowed the planned US-China summit. President Trump was scheduled to visit Beijing at the end of March, but the administration has requested that the trip be delayed by a month due to the war in Iran. The long-term risk remains ceding tech leadership. Unless the US and its allies collaborate, we risk seeing a splintered tech world that would slow innovation. China would win, racing ahead — and leaving the West chasing behind. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Yun Sun writes: The impact of the Iran war on China’s oil dependence is highly nuanced. China imports more than 10 percent of its global total from Iran, but China’s energy consumption has long been diversified internationally and electrified domestically to avoid critical dependence on any single exporter. China has couched its confidence in the energy supply from the Middle East on the perceived unsustainable nature of a major conflict. That assumption is now being put to a real test. – War on the Rocks
South Asia
India is proposing that clean energy firms use only locally made solar ingots and wafers from June 2028, the country’s renewable energy ministry said on Wednesday, in a move aimed at curbing Chinese imports. – Reuters
India on Tuesday denied holding talks with Iran about releasing three tankers seized in February in exchange for ensuring safe passage for Indian ships through the Strait of Hormuz. – Reuters
Rescue teams are continuing to pull bodies from the smoking rubble of a drug rehabilitation centre in the Afghan capital, Kabul, which was hit on Monday night in a devastating Pakistani air strike. – BBC
Amira Jadoon writes: One path is a managed de-escalation facilitated by external mediators (China, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey have all called for restraint), in which the Taliban offer verifiable concessions on Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan: relocation or disarmament. The second, and most likely in the near term, is entrenched low‑grade confrontation along the Durand Line: recurring cross-border strikes, ground engagements, and retaliatory operations that normalize militarized rivalry without resolving the core dispute. The third, and most consequential, is strategic backfire where external pressure consolidates Taliban unity, reduces space for pragmatists, and hardens resistance to the commitments Pakistan seeks. This can lead to the institutionalization of a long-term, managed conflict neither side fully controls. – War on the Rocks
Asia
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said an Iranian projectile on Wednesday hit near its Al Minhad Air Base in the United Arab Emirates, and that all Australian defence personnel were safe. – Reuters
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi visits the White House on Thursday for meetings that offer U.S. President Donald Trump a chance to lean on a key security partner for support in his Iran war, threatening to strain a decades-old alliance. – Reuters
New Zealand’s government will introduce legislation on Wednesday to tighten deportation, asylum and immigration enforcement rules, saying the changes are needed to tackle serious offending, migrant exploitation and bad-faith claims. – Reuters
The war on Iran has not delayed shipments of weapons to Taiwan or changed U.S. policy toward the island, officials from President Donald Trump’s administration told members of Congress on Tuesday, despite the demands of the intense air campaign. – Reuters
Semiconductor firms in Malaysia are monitoring risks from disruptions to helium supplies due to the conflict in the Middle East, though the situation has not caused any operational interruptions so far, an industry executive told Reuters. – Reuters
Japan’s exports rose for a sixth straight month, data showed on Wednesday, pointing to resilient global demand, although industrial supply chain disruptions driven by the Middle East conflict loom as a risk to the world’s fourth-largest economy. – Reuters
Two players from the Iranian women’s soccer team have joined a practice session with a professional club in Brisbane in their first publicly-shared appearance since it emerged they had been granted asylum in Australia. – Associated Press
Thailand will start building fences along a portion of its border with Cambodia next month to boost security after deadly clashes between the countries erupted last year following longstanding tensions. – Bloomberg
A channeling of US resources into the conflict ravaging the Middle East could cause an imbalance in the current security environment surrounding Japan, renewing the need for the country to strengthen its defense capabilities, according to Japan’s former Defense Minister Gen Nakatani. – Bloomberg
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi warned she’s facing an “extremely difficult” meeting with Donald Trump, after the US president criticized Japan for rebuffing his demand for warships to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. – Bloomberg
Ahmad Obali writes: Within South Azerbaijan, frustration with the Iranian regime has grown significantly. Many South Azerbaijanis have openly condemned the attack on Nakhchivan and expressed solidarity with the Republic of Azerbaijan. […] Some argue that meaningful change in Iran may only come through major political transformation, and that the voices of Iran’s diverse ethnic communities should be part of any future political solution. For this reason, many believe that the international community should engage more seriously with Iran’s ethnic minorities, which make up the majority of the population, and civil society actors when considering the future of Iran and the stability of the broader Middle East. – Jerusalem Post
James Holmes writes: One thing to watch is whether Tokyo opts to boost the number of JMSDF subs beyond its stated—and achieved—goal of 22 boats. Some years ago, the navy expanded its compact 16-boat contingent to 22, partially through new construction and partially by operating existing boats for longer than the JMSDF’s customary—and remarkably short by naval standards—15-year service life. Japan is in the process of doubling its defense budget. Whether some of that new largesse goes to additional Taigeis or some successor class remains to be seen. All in all, Japan’s love affair with submarines makes its navy an invaluable ally beneath the waves. Say, why doesn’t the US Navy order Japanese diesel submarines of its own? – National Interest
Europe
Confidence among German investors plunged this month amid surging energy prices as the conflict in the Middle East continues. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany, which this month tracked the expectations of 178 analysts and investors at banks, insurance companies and other businesses, fell to minus 0.5 in March compared with 58.3 in February. – Wall Street Journal
The European Union approved Italian defense and aerospace group Leonardo’s 1.7 billion-euro ($1.96 billion) bid for Iveco Group’s defense business. – Wall Street Journal
Dutch Jews have long been used to seeing security and armed police in front of their schools, synagogues and gatherings. But since the weekend, a renewed sense of unease has settled in. – New York Times
Britain, Finland and the Netherlands are looking at teaming up to jointly finance and procure weapons, munitions and military equipment, given the increasing threat level across the world, with war in Ukraine and in the Middle East. – Reuters
The European Union has started taking the unpredictability of the United States into account one year after President Donald Trump returned to the White House, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Leaders of France and Germany will discuss the crisis-hit FCAS fighter programme on the sidelines of a European Union summit on Wednesday, three people familiar with the matter said. – Reuters
European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas called on the United States and Israel on Tuesday to end their war with Iran and said the EU was consulting with governments in the Middle East about how to bring the conflict to a conclusion. – Reuters
President Emmanuel Macron said on Tuesday France would never take part in operations to unblock the Strait of Hormuz, pushing back on comments by U.S. President Donald Trump that Paris was willing to help. – Reuters
Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has staked her leadership on defying U.S. President Donald Trump over Greenland. Convincing voters at home to give her a third term is proving harder. – Reuters
Gerry Adams, one of Northern Ireland’s most prominent political figures, told London’s High Court on Tuesday he had never been a member of the paramilitary Irish Republican Army, but said he would not distance himself from the group. – Reuters
Hungary and Slovakia have agreed to build a pipeline that will transport oil products like gasoline and diesel in what Slovakia’s Energy Ministry on Tuesday called a step toward improving the stability of fuel supplies in the region. – Associated Press
Irish Taoiseach Micheál Martin defended British Prime Minister Keir Starmer after the UK leader was criticized by President Donald Trump for not more fully supporting the war on Iran. – Bloomberg
Moldova summoned Russia’s ambassador to complain about Moscow’s strike on a Ukrainian facility that caused a petroleum products spill in the Dniester river and threatened local water supplies. – Bloomberg
Friedrich Merz, knee-to-knee in the Oval Office with Donald Trump, sat mute as the US president threw verbal darts at Spain, one of Germany’s European Union allies, complaining about its failure to help in the US-Israeli attack on Iran. – Bloomberg
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said he’ll continue to block key European Union aid to Ukraine until flows of Russian oil via the Druzhba pipeline are fully restored, despite President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s decision to allow EU experts into his country to help with repairs. – Bloomberg
France’s foreign minister Jean-Noël Barrot has floated the idea that Canada could one day join the European Union, using the transatlantic ally as a striking example of the bloc’s global appeal. – Politico
King Charles will host the first Nigerian state visit to the UK for 37 years, with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his wife Oluremi Tinubu to be given a ceremonial welcome at Windsor Castle. – BBC
The Dutch House of Representatives has adopted a motion to ban the Muslim Brotherhood. The motion, proposed by Party for Freedom (PVV) MPs Maikel Boon and Geert Wilders on March 9, requests that the government ban the Muslim Brotherhood and its affiliated organizations in the Netherlands. It received 76 votes. – Jerusalem Post
The Belgian defense ministry, in cooperation with the federal police, has taken responsibility for securing sites connected to the Jewish community in Belgium, announced Interior and Defense Ministers Bernard Quintin and Theo Francken. – Arutz Sheva
Ben Judah writes: The truth is it is not Britain, with its rocky politics and strained public finances, that is seriously rearming. It’s Germany. With Berlin aiming to hit 3.5 percent of GDP on defense by 2029, the balance of power in Europe is going to shift radically. A Europe still allied to Washington but primarily defended by Europeans is in sight. But neither Britain nor France are ready for their German partner suddenly overshadowing them militarily. Unless the U.K. raises its defense budget to generate more deployable assets to secure Europe’s perimeter, London’s return to relevance risks being a passing moment in between two Western security orders. – Washington Post
Antonia-Laura Pup writes: Romania has previously proved a loyal US ally by supporting US operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. It endorsed Trump’s proposal to increase NATO’s spending target to 5% of GDP for defense, and is exploring co-production opportunities with American companies as part of the rearmament effort. What does it hope for in return? The pro-US political groups would like Washington to do its part by establishing a permanent military presence in Romania and updating its Black Sea security strategy to acknowledge both the region’s complex web of threats stemming from Russia, China, and Iran, but also its immense potential in energy and critical minerals. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Bartosz Kielak writes: European sanctions are among the few instruments that reliably change Minsk’s calculus. The Nobel laureate is adamant that they should not be traded for batch releases without measurable change: a halt to repression and the restoration of basic civic space. If sanctions relief becomes the price of freeing hostages, the regime’s incentive is to manufacture more hostages (a tactic favored by Lukashenka’s big brother, Vladimir Putin). Bialiatski recalls meeting Jan Nowak-Jeziorański, the wartime courier who spent decades in exile working for a democratic Poland. By the time they met, the old man was well past 90, and Poland had long since changed. But before the Iron Curtain fell, nobody knew when — or whether — it would. “One should set fewer deadlines,” Bialiatski says, “and simply continue one’s work.” – Center for European Policy Analysis
Africa
At least 23 civilians were killed and more than 100 injured after bombs exploded in several locations in the northeastern Nigerian state of Borno, the police reported. – New York Times
Nigeria’s president described attacks in the northeast’s most heavily defended city as “the final desperate” acts of militants trying to spread fear. Many experts say the opposite is true, that the blasts were a sign of strength not weakness. – Reuters
Congo Republic President Denis Sassou Nguesso has been re-elected with 94.82% of the vote, state television said on Tuesday, extending his nearly 42-year rule over the Central African oil producer. – Reuters
Medical supplies to clinics dealing with the humanitarian crisis in Sudan could run out within two weeks unless shipments are rapidly rerouted after disruptions due to the conflict in the Middle East, the charity Save the Children said. – Reuters
Somalia’s South West state said on Tuesday it was suspending all cooperation and relations with the government in Mogadishu, the latest sign of strain in the Horn of Africa country’s fragile federal system. – Reuters
A Brussels court on Tuesday ordered a former high-profile Belgian diplomat to stand trial over the assassination of Patrice Lumumba, the first prime minister of Congo, in a final attempt to shed light on the still murky circumstances surrounding his murder. – Reuters
A court in Kenya on Tuesday charged two men with transporting wildlife illegally after one of them, a Chinese national, was arrested at Nairobi’s Jomo Kenyatta International Airport with more than 2,000 live ants last week. – Reuters
The Americas
A team of New York Times journalists on assignment at the Ecuador-Colombia border last week learned from local farmers about an alarming development: they told us that they had stumbled upon a large, unexploded bomb on a farm. – New York Times
Chile’s new right-wing government has begun deploying heavy machinery to dig trenches along its northern border with Peru, moving to deliver on President Jose Antonio Kast’s campaign pledge to crack down on illegal migration and increase military presence at the border. – Reuters
The charred remains of 27 people were found in Colombia after bombings near the border with Ecuador, Colombian President Gustavo Petro said on Tuesday as his Ecuadorean counterpart, Daniel Noboa, said his country bombed drug traffickers in its own territory. – Reuters
Venezuelan opposition leader and Nobel Peace prize winner Maria Corina Machado is scheduled to participate in the CERAWeek conference by S&P in Houston next week, according to the event’s agenda and members of her media team. – Reuters
Chile’s government has ordered a blanket spending cut of nearly $4 billion as part of a plan to improve public finances and safeguard social benefits over the medium term, according to a document seen by Reuters on Tuesday. – Reuters
Peruvian President Jose Balcazar shuffled his cabinet on Tuesday, just one month into his interim presidency, after his prime minister resigned. – Reuters
Paraguay on Tuesday became the latest and final South American country to ratify the landmark free trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union, which will establish one of the world’s largest free trade zones. – Associated Press
Peru’s prime minister resigned Tuesday ahead of a mandatory vote in the nation’s Congress, where she needed a majority of legislators to confirm her recent appointment. – Associated Press
Colombia said Tuesday it is seeking an exemption from U.S. sanctions to invest in Venezuelan electricity projects and natural gas ventures that could include the reopening of a gas pipeline between the neighboring South American countries. – Associated Press
Ecuador’s president on Tuesday rejected allegations that his country is bombing targets in neighboring Colombia as tensions escalate between the two South American nations. – Associated Press
Brazil is set for a shakeup at the top of its economic team just months before presidential elections, with a new lineup that will need to signal President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s policy direction through 2027. – Bloomberg
The Trump administration intends to take additional steps to ease sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector in an effort to increase crude production as the Iran war sends prices surging. – Bloomberg
North America
Cuba’s communist government is struggling to restore electricity across the island after its obsolete power grid collapsed on Monday, exposing the magnitude of its economic implosion amid a damaging U.S. oil blockade and rising social unrest. – Wall Street Journal
Diana Sainz and her husband, Andrea Gallina, invested big a decade ago when Cuba made a push toward allowing private entrepreneurship. – New York Times
Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada became a diplomatic celebrity after delivering an electrifying speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, declaring that President Trump had permanently ruptured the rules-based world order. – New York Times
El Salvador’s Congress on Tuesday approved a constitutional amendment to allow for life sentences for charges including murder, rape, and terrorism, as the government of President Nayib Bukele continues its crackdown on the country’s criminal gangs. – Reuters
A Hong Kong-flagged tanker that could be carrying fuel to Cuba resumed navigation on Tuesday after suspending its course weeks ago in the Atlantic Ocean, according to LSEG ship tracking data. – Reuters
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Tuesday that her country would have no problem hosting Iran’s matches in the 2026 World Cup, if soccer governing body FIFA agrees. – Reuters
President Donald Trump on Tuesday said Cuba was in a bad shape and that the country was speaking with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Washington would be doing “something with Cuba” very soon, he said in comments to reporters in the Oval Office. – Reuters
Cuba has reconnected its power grid on Tuesday and brought online its largest oil-fired power plant, energy officials said, putting an end to a nationwide blackout that lasted more than 29 hours amid a U.S. move to choke off the island’s fuel supply. – Reuters
The U.N.-backed Gang Suppression Force – an international mobilization intended to help Haiti’s police fight powerful armed gangs in the Caribbean country – should fully deploy by October this year, Roberto Alvarez, foreign minister of the neighboring Dominican Republic, said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Russia said it had unwavering solidarity with Cuba on Tuesday, after U.S. President Donald Trump said he expected to have the honour of “taking Cuba” and that “I can do anything I want” with the Communist-run island republic. – Reuters
Canada was not consulted over the U.S-Israeli strikes on Iran that sparked the war in the Middle East and has no intention of participating in any offensive military operation, Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand said Tuesday. – Associated Press
Haiti has a chance now to tackle pervasive gang violence with a U.S.-initiated international force starting to deploy and a prime minister committed to providing alternatives for young gang members, the United Nations’ expert on human rights in Haiti said Monday. – Associated Press
Toronto police are investigating reports that antisemitic images were displayed during a demonstration held Sunday near Bathurst Street and Sheppard Avenue in the district of North York, an area at the heart of Toronto’s Jewish community, reported The Toronto Star. – Arutz Sheva
United States
The State Department has ordered all U.S. diplomatic posts worldwide to “immediately” undertake security evaluations, citing “the ongoing and developing situation in the Middle East and the potential for spill-over effects,” according to a cable sent Tuesday that was reviewed by The Washington Post. – Washington Post
The intelligence community’s top counterterrorism official said Tuesday he was stepping down over the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran — the first senior official to openly break ranks with the White House over a conflict stretching into its third week. – Washington Post
Airlines are raising prices to cover soaring fuel costs, but that doesn’t seem to be pushing many travelers away. At an investor conference on Tuesday, executives from most major U.S. airlines said that robust travel demand was offsetting the effects of winter storms and a huge rise in the cost of jet fuel since the start of the war in Iran. – New York Times
US farmers, long one of Donald Trump’s most loyal constituencies, are increasingly worried by the Iran war as soaring fertilizer and fuel prices hammer them just as they are about to start planting crops for the year. – Bloomberg
Taoiseach (Irish Prime minister) Micheál Martin has thanked Donald Trump for “affirming the tremendous bonds” between Ireland and the US during a meeting in the Oval Office. – BBC
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt pushed back Tuesday on “false claims” in the resignation letter of the nation’s top counterterrorism official, saying President Donald Trump had “strong and compelling evidence” that Iran was going to attack the United States first. – Fox News
Editorial: Mr. Kent hails from the corner of Mr. Trump’s base that paints any U.S. action in the world as a quagmire, and the White House let many of them into the Administration as coalition management. Ms. Gabbard is another, and now one of her underlings has produced a spectacle to undermine Mr. Trump during a war. “When I read his statement, I realized that it’s a good thing that he’s out,” Mr. Trump said of the resignation. May there be more such resignations, voluntary or otherwise. – Wall Street Journal
Corey Brooks writes: To my Jewish brothers and sisters, I see what is happening. I see the attacks coming from pulpits that should know better. I see the attacks coming from political commentators who have dressed hatred in the language of free thought. I see you being made a target from the left and the right simultaneously, as though the oldest hatred in human history has simply found new hosts on both ends of the political spectrum. […] Reclaim the Black and Jewish legacy of resilience and solidarity. Stand with Israel because Scripture demands it, history proves it and basic human decency requires it. Unity beats division every time. God bless you, and God bless America. – Fox News
Ben-Dror Yemini writes: There was also the humiliating phone call in which Netanyahu was forced to apologize to the ruler of Qatar for the attempt to harm Hamas leaders in Doha. And in fact, these days again, when the United States is preventing Israel from expanding its war in Lebanon. So Israel controls the United States? Yes, in the eyes of the new adherents of the Protocols. In practice, the collapse of the Iranian regime is a strategic interest of the United States. Let’s sum up. Joe Kent is a despicable liar. Once, the Jews were blamed for every problem. Now the Jewish state is being blamed. Those were lies then. These are the exact same lies now. Those were antisemites then. These are antisemites now. – Ynet
Cybersecurity
Nvidia has restarted manufacturing of its H200 processors for sale in China, Chief Executive Jensen Huang said Tuesday, signaling a possible shift in the chip giant’s fortunes in the world’s second-largest market. – Wall Street Journal
The Chinese government is taking actions to penalize people linked to Meta’s $2 billion acquisition of Manus, a Singapore artificial intelligence start-up with Chinese roots, in an apparent effort to discourage Chinese A.I. executives from moving businesses offshore, two people with knowledge of the matter said. – New York Times
In the span of a month, an artificial intelligence assistant called OpenClaw has come to embody both China’s excitement and its anxiety about what A.I. can do. – New York Times
Medical device maker Stryker said on Tuesday it has contained a cyberattack that caused widespread disruption to its business and was now prioritizing restoring systems that directly support customers, ordering and shipping. – Reuters
Greece will soon propose a social media ban for anyone under 15 years old, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said. “The evidence is unambiguous,” he said at a Bloomberg event in Athens. “The addictive scrolling is damaging to their mental health, and we need to do something about it.” – Bloomberg
The race against time during missile attacks has exposed how private Telegram and WhatsApp systems often outpace Home Front Command alerts, thanks to access to civilian command-and-control systems connected directly to radar-based data. – Jerusalem Post
National Cyber Director Sean Cairncross said Tuesday that the Trump administration isn’t aspiring to enlist the private sector to conduct offensive cyber operations, but instead to help the government by keeping them abreast of the threats they’re facing. – CyberScoop
North Korean hackers targeted cryptocurrency e-commerce platform Bitrefill during an attack on March 1, according to a post-mortem from the company published Tuesday. In a lengthy statement, Bitrefill said hackers allegedly tied to North Korea’s Lazarus group accessed around 18,500 purchase records that contained email addresses, crypto payment addresses and metadata including IP addresses. – The Record
A prominent ransomware gang has taken credit for a devastating attack on the biggest hospital in Mississippi and a large county in New Jersey. – The Record
Defense
The Iran War should spell opportunity for makers of American weapons, yet shares of the biggest defense companies have barely budged since the conflict broke out. Investors have good reasons to be cautious. – Wall Street Journal
President Trump said on Tuesday that he was not afraid to put U.S. troops on the ground in Iran, and that the United States did not “need or desire” any help from U.S. allies to open the Strait of Hormuz. – New York Times
A hulking gray military plane swooped low over green fields and quaint stone cottages as it came in to land at R.A.F. Fairford, a British base in a quiet corner of southern England. – New York Times
The US military official leading the effort to build the Golden Dome missile-defense shield put a $185 billion price tag on the first stage of the project, a $10 billion cost increase that highlights the project’s massive — and imprecise — ambitions. – Bloomberg
The USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier is leaving the fight with Iran and heading back to port, a US official familiar with the matter said, after a fire broke out in its laundry area and left at least two sailors with non-life-threatening injuries. – Bloomberg
The Pentagon is planning to mass produce one-way LUCAS attack drones, which have been deployed by US forces in the current war in the Middle East after they were created by reverse-engineering Iran’s cheap and deadly Shahed system. – Bloomberg
A top Pentagon official told lawmakers Tuesday that existing military operations targeting Latin American drug cartels are “just the beginning” — and left open the possibility of deploying ground forces even as lethal boat strikes against alleged smugglers continue indefinitely. – Politico
US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced on Tuesday that US forces successfully employed multiple 5,000-pound deep penetrator munitions on hardened Iranian missile sites along Iran’s coastline near the Strait of Hormuz, as part of Operation Epic Fury. – Arutz Sheva
The U.S. Navy is taking steps toward remedying ongoing maintenance delays by enlisting the help of artificial intelligence and robotic systems, the service announced. – Defense News
As missile and drone attacks intensify across the Middle East, U.S. forces are leaning heavily on air defense systems like the Patriot missile battery to intercept incoming threats. – Defense News
The Space Force now has put into place all of its mission-focused acquisition portfolios, including offices dedicated to space control and orbital warfare, according to the top space acquisition officer. – Breaking Defense
The Army is not at a satisfactory readiness rate, according to one service official, and will have to further rely on industry to fill its capability gaps. – Breaking Defense
Timothy A. Walton and Dan Patt write: The Air Force is likely the service that currently has the most mature and promising concepts for defending the homeland, maintaining strategic deterrence, and projecting power, including to deny adversary aggression by the PRC. The National Defense Strategy should highlight this, and DoW leadership and Congress should steer additional funding to raise Air Force capability, capacity, and readiness. Nonetheless, in a tight fiscal environment, the Air Force will likely need to make difficult choices to fund the new design, which it should pursue regardless of topline funding levels, in order to deter conflict and fight effectively. – Hudson Institute