What Are Turkey’s Red Lines in the Iran Conflict?

Excerpt

Three weeks into the Iran War, Turkish leaders have seen two Iranian missiles enter their airspace before NATO air defenses intercepted the rockets. While Iranian regime elements appear resolved to continue targeting key NATO assets in Turkey, the situation presents a serious dilemma that could sway Turkey’s political future at home and its credibility abroad.

NATO forces downed an Iranian ballistic missile entering Turkish airspace over Gaziantep, in the country’s southeast, on March 9. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) previously fired a ballistic missile toward southern Turkey on March 4, sparking outrage from NATO. 

Official Turkish responses to Iran’s attempted strikes indicate that while Ankara seeks no involvement in the war, its patience with Iran is running thin. During a press conference, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed Turkey’s resolve to stay out of the conflict while cautioning Iran against “persistence and stubbornness in error.” Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who has shouldered Turkish efforts to secure a negotiating table for Tehran, urged the Islamic Republic on March 7 to “be careful” and avoid further launches towards Turkey.

Turkey’s military holds a broad range of capabilities to respond to Iranian attacks, but its courses of action depend on the Turkish electorate’s tolerance for involvement. With the country’s first post-Erdogan presidential election due in two years or less, the president’s chief concern is ensuring that his political movement continues. If Tehran pushes Ankara too far, Erdogan will face the challenge of reestablishing deterrence against Iran while avoiding politically toxic escalation.

Sinan Ciddi is a senior fellow on Turkey at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) in Washington, DC.