Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Hamas’s leader in Gaza told Arab negotiators that he would accept a peace deal only if Israel commits to a permanent cease-fire, affirming the militant group’s position in his first response to a proposal introduced by President Biden to end the eight-month war. – Wall Street Journal

Israeli fighter jets appear to have used a U.S.-made munition in a strike that killed dozens of people inside a U.N. school in the central Gaza Strip on Thursday, according to five weapons experts who examined verified footage from the debris. – Washington Post

The U.S. pier off Gaza’s coast will undergo at least $22 million in repairs before returning to service soon, two Pentagon officials said, an indication of the scope of damage it suffered when rough seas ripped the structure to pieces and abruptly halted the humanitarian mission only days after initial aid shipments went ashore. – Washington Post

Facing international criticism of its conduct of the war and its latest strike on a U.N. school building being used as a shelter in Nuseirat, the Israeli military offered a full-throated defense of the operation, insisting its forces had targeted a group of about 30 militants using three classrooms as a base. – New York Times

Set to a peppy electronic soundtrack, a recent video clip showed what the Hezbollah militia said was a missile-firing drone, a new weapon in its arsenal as it ratchets up its strikes on Israel. – New York Times

Russia and China, which hold veto powers in the U.N. Security Council, raised concerns on Thursday with a U.S. draft resolution that would back a proposal – outlined by President Joe Biden – for a ceasefire between Israel and Palestinian militants Hamas. – Reuters

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he will “present the truth” about the war against Hamas in Gaza when he addresses the U.S. Congress on July 24 during a visit to Washington, Republican leaders said on Thursday. – Reuters

The United States on Thursday imposed sanctions on Palestinian militant group Lions’ Den, the State Department said, in the latest move aimed at those Washington says threaten peace and stability in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. – Reuters

The Israeli military has warned the government its policy of cutting off funds to the Palestinian Authority could push the occupied West Bank into a third “intifada”, public broadcaster Kan Radio reported on Thursday. – Reuters

With no sign of progress in mediators’ efforts to reach a ceasefire in the Gaza war, Israeli forces pounded Rafah from the air and ground overnight as tanks tried to advance further west, residents said. – Reuters

President Biden’s initial claim that he would be pressuring Hamas to agree to a Gaza cease-fire and hostage release is now turning into a pressure campaign on “both sides.” Contradicting itself, Washington is now urging Israel to implement what it insists is an “Israeli proposal.” – New York Sun

A senior Hamas official said Thursday that US President Joe Biden’s proposed Gaza ceasefire deal was “just words” and the Palestinian militant group had not received any written commitments related to a truce. – Agence France-Presse

US President Joe Biden and 16 other world leaders including key European and Latin American players on Thursday jointly urged Hamas to accept a ceasefire deal and for Israel to accept compromises. – Agence France-Presse

The Israeli military said Thursday that a soldier had been killed in the north where troops are engaged in near-daily border clashes with Lebanon’s Hezbollah. – Agence France-Presse

The deadline set by Minister-without-Portfolio Benny Gantz for his National Unity Party to leave the government if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not make the changes Gantz laid out in May will be reached on Saturday. – Jerusalem Post

Ambassador to the United Nations Gilad Erdan informed his US counterpart Linda Thomas-Greenfield on Thursday that Jerusalem opposes the Security Council resolution being advanced by Washington that expresses support for the hostage-ceasefire proposal Israel made last week. – Times of Israel

Editorial: By addressing the root causes of the conflict, challenging destructive ideologies and fostering historical understanding, there is hope for a future where both Israelis and Palestinians can coexist in peace. The path to such a future is fraught with challenges, but it is a journey that must begin with honesty, courage, and a willingness to confront uncomfortable truths. – Jerusalem Post

Amit Segal writes: If Mr. Netanyahu loses, his successor may turn out to be even more Bibi than Bibi. Even those who come to bury Mr. Netanyahu shouldn’t think his ideology is dead, and in any event, it is premature for both. Since Oct. 7, a lot of people have been stopping me in the street to ask me if this is Mr. Security’s last term. Absolutely, I answer them. That’s what I thought about every one of his last four terms. – Wall Street Journal

Eyal Lurie-Pardes writes: Netanyahu is a master of the art of procrastination as a political tool. Postponing decisions is at the core of his policy-making formula. After convincing the Israeli public he could manage the conflict with the Palestinians indefinitely, Netanyahu employed similar tactics to keep the negotiations about the hostage release alive, but not concluded. – The Hill

Yaakov Katz writes: What happened? Nothing! The police chief is the same police chief, the police minister got promoted and is now the Knesset speaker, and the PM is, of course, the same PM. So you are outraged that Smotrich thinks he’s not responsible for October 7? We should all be outraged with the culture here that encourages zero accountability. Until that changes, nothing will change. – Jerusalem Post

Daphné Richemond-Barak writes: It has also facilitated Hamas’s ruthless psychological war. Militaries must take note of these innovative uses of the underground, which can bring states to the brink of operational and political paralysis, so that they can anticipate how underground tactics might be used in future wars by their adversaries. – Foreign Affairs

Russia & Ukraine

After Russia’s full-scale military invasion, Ukraine abruptly stopped buying nuclear fuel from Moscow, its top supplier in an industry that accounted for more than half of the country’s electricity generation. – Wall Street Journal

Russia arrested a French employee of a peace-building organization on an allegation of gathering information about its armed forces, the latest case of a foreign national detained by Moscow amid rising tensions with the West over the war in Ukraine. – Wall Street Journal

The relentless pounding of Ukraine’s power plants by Russian drones and missiles is finally being felt. The state electricity distributor, Ukrenergo, said the latest onslaught on the power grid over the weekend meant rationing power throughout the country. It had been the sixth such barrage since March. – Washington Post

It was the dead of night and a fire was raging in the apartment building where a Russian drone had struck just minutes earlier. Through the smoke, residents stumbled down the stairs from their apartments and told fire officers who were trying to account for all the inhabitants that a young woman was renting the top-floor flat. – New York Times

Ukraine’s debt restructuring talks with bondholders and other creditors are ‘on track,’ with discussions continuing, International Monetary Fund spokesperson Julie Kozack said on Thursday. – Reuters

The Kremlin said on Thursday that Western nations supplying Ukraine with weapons to strike Russian territory will have to reckon with Russia, after President Vladimir Putin said he was considering arming the West’s enemies in retaliation. – Reuters

Cut off from the West, Russia is pitching its $2 trillion economy to giants like China and Saudi Arabia and longer-term prospects like Zimbabwe and Afghanistan at its premier investment forum in St Petersburg, which was founded by the tsars as a window to Europe. – Reuters

Ukrainian air force shot down all five missiles and 48 out of 53 drones over nine regions during Russia’s overnight attack, Ukrainian military said on Friday. – Reuters

David Von Drehle writes: Don’t believe Putin’s desperate hogwash about Russian strength and Russian victory. The backbone of his economy, Gazprom — a company far more important to its country than any single company has ever been to the United States — has shown us the truth. Now is not the time, Mr. President, to take your foot off the gas. – Washington Post

Michael McKinley writes: Ukrainians will regret that President Biden will not attend the summit in Switzerland, but he will meet with Zelensky in France on the margins of the 80th D-Day anniversary in France. Additionally, Vice President Kamala Harris, who will represent the administration, can work with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and other world leaders present to rally participants to send an unmistakable message at this critical juncture: Ukraine is not alone. – The Hill

David Kirichenko writes: The technology will likely require new international rules and probably amendments to international law. For the moment Ukraine is focused on national survival. There is a growing AI drone arms race on the battlefield and the winner will have significant advantages. Ukraine has no choice but to press on, no matter the consequences. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Christopher Faulkner writes: But a reactive approach and strategic complacency are what contributed to Moscow’s fortune in the Sahel and beyond. The United States must reflect, ask tough questions, and take action. While today’s problems in the Sahel may appear monumental, they can get much worse very quickly — and it won’t be Moscow volunteering to pick up the pieces. – War on the Rocks

Middle East & North Africa

For the first time in more than a decade, thousands of Syrians are travelling directly from government-held parts of Syria to Saudi Arabia for the Haj rituals, a signal of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s gradual reintegration into the Arab fold. – Reuters

The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday that it reached a staff-level agreement with Egypt on the third review of an expanded IMF loan program, which would disburse about $820 million to Cairo upon board approval. – Reuters

Qatari foreign ministry spokesperson Majed Al-Ansari said on Thursday that Hamas has not yet handed mediators its response to the latest ceasefire proposal and is still studying it, adding that Qatari, Egyptian and the U.S. mediators are still making efforts. – Reuters

Egypt has received encouraging signals from Hamas over a potential Gaza truce and hostage-prisoner swap with Israel, state-linked Al-Qahera News said on Thursday, citing a high-level source. – Agence France-Presse

Asli Aydintasbas writes: There will be no return to the Cold War transatlantic relationship, but Erdogan’s Turkey has not yet crossed over to the Chinese-Russian orbit, and there is an opening for Turkey to tilt back toward the West if its partners make the advantages of cooperation clear. Weighing the costs of continued estrangement and the potential benefits of a reset, Biden should resolve to extend Turkey a hand. – Foreign Affairs

Maya Carlin writes: Although Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree claims that the Eisenhower was damaged in recent barrages, this narrative is clearly pure fiction. However, the militant group is well supplied with UAVs thanks to Iran, and eliminating the Houthis’ weapons depots should remain a top priority for U.S. and Israeli forces alike. – The National Interest

China

China’s Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong held a video call with U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas on Thursday, with both agreeing to maintain communication on counter-narcotics and law enforcement cooperation, according to Chinese state media. – Reuters

The United States encourages China to attend a planned summit on Ukraine this month in Switzerland, a U.S. State Department spokesperson told reporters on Thursday, with China thus far saying it will stay away as Russia had not been invited. – Reuters

China remains open towards cooperation with countries including the United States in space, the foreign ministry said on Thursday, following congratulations from U.S. space agency NASA on China’s Chang’e-6 mission to the far side of the moon. – Reuters

China never makes use of subsidies for electric vehicles that have been prohibited by the World Trade Organization, a spokesperson for its foreign ministry said on Thursday. – Reuters

Kevin Rudd writes: For Beijing, reassurance that Taipei and its international partners will sustain the status quo on Taiwan’s future political status is essential for strategic stability. But with Xi’s evident frustration at Taiwan’s continuing autonomy, reassurance alone will not be sufficient. It needs to be part of a much wider equation of integrated deterrence that will command all our efforts for the decade ahead if we are to successfully preserve the peace. – Washington Post

Minxin Pei writes: Worst of all, China has few realistic options to insulate itself against the fallout. Xi could try to pressure Putin not to push the nuclear button. But, at the end of the day, the Russian leader knows that China can do nothing to stop him. Xi’s earlier confidence is starting to look misplaced. The upside to his friendship with Putin is more limited than it may have first appeared. Just as clearly, the potential downside for China is not. – Bloomberg

Michael Schuman writes: Instead, China must bear the immense financial burden of re-creating at home what it could have acquired abroad—and even then, it is not likely to benefit as much as it could have from emerging technology compared with other major economies with access to the best the world has to offer. Xi not only has hampered Beijing’s attainment of great-power status, but has actually achieved the reverse: By choosing a China hostile to the U.S., he now leads a weaker China. – The Atlantic

Keith Johnson writes: The famously slow-to-condemn-China grouping at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations finally weighed in on the worsening security situation late last year. “China is stuck doing the same thing over and over every month,” Poling said. “All they are really doing is creating this anti-China coalition.” – Foreign Policy

Asia

Two weeks after a landslide leveled a remote community in Papua New Guinea’s Enga Province, search and rescue operations are about to end, amid indications that the disaster was less devastating than previously thought. – New York Times

The Philippine coast guard on Friday accused its Chinese counterpart of blocking efforts to evacuate a sick member of its armed forces in the South China Sea, calling its actions “barbaric and inhumane”. – Reuters

Two British judges have resigned from Hong Kong’s top court, about a week after a landmark verdict that convicted 14 prominent democratic activists of subversion, amid a national security crackdown on dissent in the financial hub. – Reuters

Indonesia’s parliament on Thursday approved a proposal to accept a South Korean donation of a corvette for its navy, despite concern from its defence committee that the ageing vessel needs about $85 million worth of maintenance. – Reuters

More than 500 people from sea-faring communities around the coast of Malaysia’s Sabah state have been evicted from their homes this week as part of a crackdown against undocumented migrants, local activists said. – Reuters

Japanese, U.S. and South Korean coast guard vessels conducted their first three-way drill on Thursday off Japan’s coast as the countries strengthen their maritime ties in response to increased assertiveness by China in pressing its territorial claims. – Associated Press

Africa

South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC) will invite other political parties to form a government of national unity, its leader Cyril Ramaphosa said on Thursday, after a meeting of the ANC’s National Executive Committee. – Reuters

Sudan’s army said on Thursday it would deliver a “harsh response” to an attack a day earlier on a village by the Sudanese paramilitary Rapid Support Forces that pro-democracy activists said killed more than 100 people. – Reuters

A prosecutor in Benin said authorities had detained on Wednesday five Niger nationals for allegedly entering Benin’s Seme-Kpodji pipeline terminal under false pretences, deepening a dispute over exports of crude oil from Niger via Benin. – Reuters

A fire at a displacement camp in eastern Congo destroyed around 50 makeshift tents, leaving dozens of families without shelter, according to the United Nations, which said the fire is believed to have started during cooking at a camp. – Associated Press

United States

President Biden will use the spot where U.S. forces helped turn the tide of World War II to drive home what has become the core argument for his re-election effort: He will preserve democratic freedoms, as American troops did here 80 years ago, while Donald Trump will undermine them. – Wall Street Journal

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump said on Thursday he may impose tariffs on countries, including China, that do not curb the flow of undocumented immigrants from their territory to the United States, if he wins the U.S. election in November. – Reuters

The Federal Communications Commission on Thursday voted to advance a proposal to boost the security of information transmitted across the internet after government agencies said a Chinese carrier had misrouted traffic. – Reuters

The United States imposed sanctions Thursday on dozens of Georgian officials in response to the enactment of a law that drew weeks of protests by critics who say it will curb media freedom and jeopardize the country’s chances of joining the European Union. – Associated Press

The U.S. will send about $225 million in military aid to Ukraine, U.S. officials said Thursday, in a new package that includes ammunition Kyiv’s forces could use to strike threats inside Russia to defend the city of Kharkiv from a heavy Russian assault. – Associated Press

Editorial: It would have increased detention capacity and deportation flights. At Mr. Trump’s behest, Republicans torpedoed the bill, lest Mr. Biden reap a political win. But it still stands as evidence that a deal could be done — a better way to deal with this country’s dysfunctional asylum system than one desperate executive order. – Washington Post

Janusz Bugajski writes: For a major power to prevail, it must be able to discard any irrational fears, project its own strengths, and exploit the vulnerabilities of its adversaries. Unfortunately, when a U.S. administration lacks clarity over its international security objectives, then it cannot develop an effective policy to achieve them. – Washington Examiner

Peter Suciu writes: Moreover, while the Kremlin is directly involved in a conflict in Ukraine, the West is largely not engaged in any full-blown fighting. Though Medvedev could be seen to suggest that various nations could strike at U.S. interests, it would be foolish to believe Tehran, Havana, or Pyongyang would follow through even with prodding. Such a regime would be unlikely to survive for long. Thus, Putin’s and Medvedev’s words should be seen as mere saber rattling, while their blades are simply old and rusty. – The National Interest

Defense

Lockheed Martin selected Firefly Aerospace’s Alpha rocket to fly as many as 25 missions for the defense contractor through 2029. The deal, announced June 5, commits Lockheed to 15 launch reservations and up to 10 optional missions. – Defense News

The U.S. military test-fired two unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles this week, with the Air Force noting they were not driven by “current world events.” – Defense News

The Department of Defense’s chief information officer, John Sherman, will be departing his role at the end of the month, according to a statement by Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. – DefenseScoop