Fdd's overnight brief

June 16, 2026

FDD Research & Analysis

In The News

Israel

President Trump’s deal to wind down the war with Iran set off alarm bells in Israel, where top officials are wrestling with the consequences of easing the pressure on Tehran and the risks of opening a rift with the U.S. over the war with Hezbollah in Lebanon. – Wall Street Journal

EU foreign ministers have not ​reached a consensus to ‌approve sanctions against Israel’s far-right National Security Minister ​Itamar Ben-Gvir, EU’s ​top diplomat Kaja Kallas said ⁠on Monday. – Reuters

Israel expects more orders ​for air and missile defence systems from European countries soon, with at least ‌one contract expected within weeks, a senior official at Israel’s defence ministry said. – Reuters

Israel’s cabinet approved the appointment ​of Naomi Feldman for a second term on the Bank ‌of Israel’s monetary policy committee, the central bank said on Monday. – Reuters

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel does not know the terms of the US-Iran nuclear deal during a press conference on Monday evening, following Sunday’s announcement that the United States and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement. – Jerusalem Post

US Vice President JD Vance said that he is confident that Israel would join the agreement with Iran “further down the road,” when asked about Israeli involvement in the US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) during a Monday night interview with CBS News. – Jerusalem Post

National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir canceled his upcoming trip to the US due to difficulties obtaining a visa, Channel 12 reported on Monday. The difficulties were reportedly related to the requirement to provide fingerprints to obtain a US visa, Channel 13’s Suleiman Maswadeh reported. – Jerusalem Post

“Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and I are leading a clear policy stating that the IDF will remain in the security zones in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza without a time limit, in order to protect the border and Israeli communities from jihadist elements. The area will be cleared of local residents, and all terror infrastructure, above and below ground, including homes in contact-line villages that served as terror outposts, will be destroyed,” Katz wrote in the statement. – Ynet

The Global Sumud Flotilla (GSF) has unveiled plans for a renewed maritime mission toward the Gaza Strip, escalating efforts once again to challenge Israel’s naval blockade and make yet another attempt to reach the war-torn enclave amid ongoing regional tensions. – Algemeiner

Editorial: The reported US-Iran deal may be good for oil markets, for a White House that wants the war over, and for a president eager to say he forced Tehran to the table and reopened the Strait of Hormuz. For Israel, that is not the test. The test is whether Iran is weaker today than it was before the deal. Trump should not attach his name to a weaker version of the mistake he once condemned. If this agreement removes Iran’s nuclear threat, cuts off its proxies, protects Israel’s freedom of action, and gives the regime no path back to strength, the administration should publish the details and defend them. If it does less than that, Israel should not applaud. – Jerusalem Post

Alon Lifshitz writes: Somewhere over Gaza right now, a drone is making a decision. Not a soldier. Not a commander hunched over a screen in a bunker. The drone. That moment, replicated thousands of times a day across active conflict zones, is the clearest signal we have that warfare has entered a new era. The technology driving it has a name most people haven’t heard yet: physical AI. The countries that solve reliable autonomous systems first will have a military advantage that traditional defense spending can’t easily offset. Israel has the operational history, the engineering talent, and the threat environment to be a genuine leader here. The window to build that position is open. It won’t stay open indefinitely. – Jerusalem Post

Ephraim D. Tepler and Itamar Marcus write: The PA has not stopped its terror salary program. It has simply become more careful, coded, and nervous about being exposed. The PA can change the names of the payments. It can move money through different channels. It can instruct officials and media hosts not to discuss the details openly. But every so often, someone forgets that the microphone is live and confirms what PMW has been documenting: Pay-for-Slay continues. And the PA knows exactly who is watching. – Algemeiner

Iran

The U.S. and Iran haven’t released the text of their deal to end the war, but both sides are selling the agreement to their publics as a win. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump said the Strait of Hormuz would be fully open Friday, the same day the U.S. and Iran plan to finalize a peace deal in Switzerland that ends the four-month war and kick-starts nuclear negotiations. – Wall Street Journal

The deal between Iran and the U.S. to end the fighting offers reason for hope, though the impact of the jump in energy prices from the war will continue to be felt, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said Monday. – Wall Street Journal

To restart ship traffic in the strait, one of the most important questions will be whether the Iranians laid naval mines and, if so, how quickly they can be found and neutralized. – New York Times

Though President Trump declared on Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen and be “permanently toll-free,” Iran indicated on Monday that it intended to charge fees for unspecified services in the strait. – New York Times

Iran’s theocratic rulers have seen off a U.S. military campaign but their real problems may be about to begin: managing the competing demands of hardliners buoyed by surviving the onslaught and those of an impoverished, ​angry people. – Reuters

The United Nations’ human rights chief on Monday welcomed the peace deal between the United States and Iran, urging maximum restraint on all sides so a lasting agreement could be reached. – Reuters

France and Britain are pushing plans for a multinational naval mission ​to safeguard shipping through the Strait of Hormuz if a U.S.-Iran ceasefire materialises, although it is doubtful whether Tehran would be prepared to accept any such ‌operation. – Reuters

U.S. Vice President JD Vance said on Monday that no funds would be released to Iran in exchange for signing ​an agreement to halt the war and open the Strait of Hormuz and that text of ‌the framework deal would be shared this week. – Reuters

The Trump administration is prepared to allow the establishment of a $300bn investment fund for Iran if Tehran agrees to a final settlement to end the war that includes a nuclear deal. – Financial Times

While the exact terms agreed upon by Washington and Tehran have not been publicly confirmed by the White House, experts speaking to The Jerusalem Post on Monday gave little weight to claims by the Islamic Republic that the US agreed to hand over $12 billion in frozen assets to Iran before the start of negotiations. – Jerusalem Post

U.S. Vice President JD Vance said early Tuesday that international nuclear inspectors would be allowed back into Iran under a memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran aimed at ending the war between the two countries. – Ynet

The Iranian people have been living through an exhausting cycle of hope, despair, negotiations, threats, partial agreements, and a never-ending wave of repression by their own government since the US-Iran ceasefire took effect in April. – Algemeiner

Editorial: The biggest risk is if Mr. Trump sees this deal as a de facto partnership with Iran’s regime. Like Mr. Obama, he might overlook violations to strike the final deal or preserve it once it is signed. The people of Iran, whom Mr. Trump promised to help, would be the big losers. Iran’s new leaders are likely to conclude that Mr. Trump has no desire for more conflict, and they will negotiate accordingly. Congress should scrutinize any final agreement Mr. Trump makes with Iran—and reject it if it props up a regime that still says “death to America.” – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: Iran has insisted for decades that it was not developing a nuclear weapon, even as it pursued the bomb. Why would anyone now trust a promise not to pursue a bomb? Will Tehran be allowed to enrich uranium at low levels? Israelis do not like what they’re hearing about the deal. The U.S. says Israel will be able to defend itself when attacked, but has the Trump administration agreed to pressure its ally not to hit Hezbollah targets in Lebanon? The simple solution is to release the text of the agreement immediately. If it’s a good deal for America, Trump is losing control of the narrative for no good reason. If it’s not, the public deserves to know. – Washington Post

Amine Ayoub writes: Washington can recognize that the Iran campaign handed the United States something it spent decades trying to achieve through other means: a globally witnessed proof of concept that Russian air defense is penetrable, Russian systems are brittle, and American and Israeli alternatives are not.  The State Department and Pentagon should accelerate Foreign Military Sales to every country currently operating Russian air defense equipment, from Algeria to India to Serbia, and pair those offers with the hard technical evidence that Iranian skies have already furnished. Russia’s arms industry does not need another enemy. It already found one, thirty kilometers above Tehran. – Arutz Sheva

Daniel Byman writes: The coming months will reveal whether the United States can transform a costly and contentious military campaign into a diplomatic success. Washington will need to restore allied confidence, bolster deterrence, and impose meaningful constraints on Iran’s nuclear and missile programs. Otherwise, Tehran will be more confident that in future crises, it can divide the United States from its allies, manage the devastation of the war, and impose costs on the United States and its allies. – Foreign Policy

Russia and Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Monday ‌that he had offered to meet Vladimir Putin at a G7 summit in France this week or even in the United States for talks to end a four-year war. – Reuters

Russia is committed to U.S. President Donald ​Trump’s proposals to end ‌the war in Ukraine, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on ​Monday, adding that he ​is eager to hear from ⁠Trump’s envoys how peace ​agreements based on U.S. ​proposals would be implemented. – Reuters

Russia is allowing some oil refineries to produce fuel with lower environmental specifications for the domestic market, the Kommersant newspaper reported on Monday, as Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure squeeze supplies. – Reuters

A Ukrainian drone attack damaged a facility ​at the Moscow oil refinery owned ‌by Russia’s Gazpromneft Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Three people were killed ​and another three, ‌including a one-year-old child, were ​injured in ​a drone attack on ⁠the Russian ​city of Tula ​south of Moscow, the regional governor, Dmitry ​Milyayev, said ​in a Telegram post. – Reuters

Two ​bridges connecting ‌the Russian-held part of Ukraine’s ​Kherson ​region with Crimea were ⁠damaged and ​traffic suspended ​by an overnight drone attack by ​Ukraine, the ​Russian-installed governor, Vladimir Saldo, ‌said ⁠on Telegram on Monday. – Reuters

A Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bomber plane crashed on Monday in Siberia’s Irkutsk ​region during a training flight, the Russian Defence ‌Ministry said, but the aircraft’s four-person crew had managed to safely eject. – Reuters

Ukraine is accelerating reforms to align its banking and insurance sectors with EU standards by ​2028 despite wartime challenges, to buttress investor confidence and deepen economic integration with Europe, its central bank governor said. – Reuters

The European Union targeted ​Russian shadow fleet figures accused of aiding Moscow’s Ukraine war effort ‌as well as individuals linked to opposition figure Alexei Navalny’s murder as it expanded its sanctions list on Monday. – Reuters

The UK said it would impose fresh sanctions on Russia and extend further energy support to Ukraine, as Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his European allies seek to increase pressure on Vladimir Putin and encourage US President Donald Trump to push for new peace talks to end the conflict. – Bloomberg

Vladimir Kara-Murza writes: But there should be clear limits on Western engagement with Putin. And while contacts aimed at reaching a ceasefire in Ukraine or freeing unjustly detained prisoners in Russia are not only acceptable but necessary, there should be no moves toward reestablishing full-fledged relations with, or normalizing an illegitimate usurper and an indicted war criminal. The time for a full normalization between the West and Russia will come — but it should not come any sooner than when a democratically elected and legitimate government takes power in Moscow. – Washington Post

Dan Perry and Mihai Razvan Ungureanu write: Days ago, a Russian drone struck an apartment building in Galați, Romania. For one of us, a former Romanian prime minister who help negotiate the country’s EU accession, and for the other, who began his career as a foreign correspondent there and covered Ukraine’s 1990s drive for independence, the incident highlights Ukraine’s urgency for Europe. Romania, a frontline state, waited many long years for accession. This must not happen to Ukraine. – The Hill

Syria

Syria’s Interior Ministry said on Monday that one of its security personnel ​had been killed as its forces thwarted an attack ‌by two Islamic State militants on a command headquarters of the country’s internal security forces in the city of Raqqa. – Reuters

A district court in The Hague on Monday sentenced to 26 years in prison a former pro-Assad ​militia member for committing crimes against humanity by torturing and raping ‌prisoners more than a decade ago. – Reuters

US President Donald Trump’s recent remarks suggesting that Syria could play a role in efforts against Hezbollah in Lebanon have sparked widespread debate – not only because of what he said, but because of what his comments reveal about the dramatic shifts in regional alliances since the fall of former Syrian President Bashar Assad’s government in late 2024. – Jerusalem Post

Lebanon

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a defiant address to Israelis, suggested on Monday that he did not feel bound by the newly reached cease-fire agreement between the United States and Iran. – New York Times

A Hezbollah official told Reuters ​on Monday that ‌the group has not carried out any ​operations since the ​Iran-U.S. deal was announced ⁠and that its ​position on the ceasefire ​was linked to Israel’s adherence to it. – Reuters

Fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon eased significantly on Monday but did not halt completely despite a U.S.-Iran deal to end the wider ​conflict, with one person killed in an Israeli strike, underscoring the fragility of the truce. – Reuters

Iran’s top diplomat was quoted as saying Tuesday that the end of the Iran war included the end of Israel’s occupation of Lebanon. – Associated Press

A senior US official said this afternoon (Monday) that an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon is not a prerequisite for a potential agreement with Iran, emphasizing that in the event of an attack by Hezbollah, Israel has the full right to self-defense. – Arutz Sheva

Middle East & North Africa

As Gulf countries breathe a sigh of relief that a preliminary deal between the United States and Iran will restore a degree of normalcy, they are confronting new questions about their decades-long reliance on the United States to ensure their security. – New York Times

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company has issued a tender to sell crude oil ​from the United Arab Emirates, the third ‌one since the start of this month, trade sources said on Monday. – Reuters

Libya’s National Oil Corporation has signed production-sharing agreements with several international ​energy companies following the country’s first licensing ‌round in nearly two decades, its chairman Massoud Suleman said on Monday. – Reuters

Korean Peninsula

North Korea’s industrial output reached 105% of planned targets in the 100 days following the country’s ruling ​party congress in February, driven by technological innovation and ‌worker mobilisation, state media KCNA said on Tuesday. – Reuters

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung invited Pope Leo XIV to visit the Asian nation next year as he sought the pontiff’s support in building peace on the Korean peninsula. – Bloomberg

Harlan Ullman writes: Given North Korea’s growing nuclear capabilities and the large number of U.S. troops stationed on the Korean Peninsula, any conflict could have caused catastrophic casualties. However, despite the heated rhetoric, neither Washington nor Pyongyang were eager for war.  By early 2018, diplomacy replaced threats. South Korea helped facilitate talks. Trump and Kim agreed to a historic summit in Singapore in June 2018. The subsequent negotiations failed to achieve denuclearization, despite Trump’s promises of economic assistance. The talks, however, ended the crisis. Regardless, the “fire and fury” period remains one of the most volatile moments in U.S.-North Korean relations since the end of the Korean War. – The Hill

China

Exports have driven much of China’s economic momentum this year, creating a global trade imbalance that has stirred up geopolitical tensions, including a brewing trade conflict with Europe. Meanwhile, China has continued to struggle with weak domestic demand and a real-estate market in the doldrums. – Wall Street Journal

The biggest oil buyer in the world, China has kept a lid on prices by rapidly reducing the amount of oil it imports. Before the war began, China imported an average of 11.6 million barrels per day. By May, its purchases of overseas oil had plunged to below eight million barrels a day, its lowest point in over eight years, according to customs data released by Beijing. – New York Times

For nearly three months, Nartai Zhengis, who lives in Kazakhstan, has not heard directly from his father, Zhengis Reskhan, a prominent ethnic Kazakh writer and satirist from China’s Xinjiang region. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

Javier Blas writes: If the Arab states’ use of the oil weapon in 1973 produced the first global energy crisis, China has used its own shield in 2026 to dampen a shock so effectively that a market crisis was avoided. This is also a historic first. Oil prices rose, though not nearly as much as feared. Inflation remained relatively contained, the job market continued growing, and Wall Street boomed. That’s a remarkable outcome given what has been happening in the Strait of Hormuz. – Bloomberg

South Asia

Sixteen India-bound ships carrying ​fertiliser are stranded in the Strait ‌of Hormuz, said Bandana Preyashi, a joint secretary in the fertilisers ministry. – Reuters

Bangladesh has summoned a senior Indian diplomat posted in Dhaka to protest against the treatment of an adviser ​to Prime Minister Tarique Rahman who was reportedly detained ‌and questioned for several hours at New Delhi airport, in the latest diplomatic row between the neighbours. – Reuters

Nepalese ​Foreign Minister Shisir Khanal met China’s top diplomat Wang Yi on Monday, his first trip to ‌the neighbouring superpower since his party swept to election victory in March, and days after visiting Beijing’s regional rival India. – Reuters

Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday endorsed the political leadership of Myanmar’s ​military chief-turned-president Min Aung Hlaing as the two met in Beijing to map ‌out the future development of bilateral ties. – Reuters

The United Nations Security Council on Monday voted to extend the mandate of the U.N. Assistance Mission in ​Afghanistan (UNAMA) for one year amid calls to streamline the operation and ‌strong criticism of the country’s Taliban rulers. – Reuters

Pakistan will host an event in Geneva to mark the US-Iran peace deal, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif told parliament, crediting Army Chief Asim Munir with playing an “extraordinary role” in efforts to end a conflict that threatened to destabilize the global economy. – Bloomberg

India says recent trials have demonstrated the country’s ability to intercept ballistic missiles, placing it among a select group of countries with advanced capabilities to that effect. – Defense News

Asia

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te said on Tuesday he would “not give up” on increasing defence spending, after the island’s opposition-majority ​parliament last month passed just two-thirds of a $40 billion supplementary budget. – Reuters

The head of the American Chamber of Commerce in Taiwan said on Tuesday he was hopeful of progress on a long-stalled double taxation agreement that ​could unlock more investment, given that Taipei and Washington have now agreed ‌a post-tariffs trade deal. – Reuters

Japan’s Prime ​Minister Sanae Takaichi said on Monday she hopes a long delayed project to ‌build a bridge across Italy’s Strait of Messina will get off the ground soon and showcase bilateral cooperation, given the involvement of Japanese companies. – Reuters

Indonesia should suspend President Prabowo Subianto’s signature-free meals program and significantly widen a graft probe into the project, according to one of the groups that first brought alleged corruption in the initiative to light. – Bloomberg

A Tajik activist facing deportation from Germany says he has been given until July 1 to convince a court he would be at risk of arrest if returned to Tajikistan in a case that has intensified fears among exiled members of the country’s opposition across Europe. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

Europe

As European leaders gather with Trump in person this week for the first time since the start of the Iran war, their goal will be simple: avoid a repeat of the cage match that took place on the White House lawn over the weekend. – Wall Street Journal

A man convicted of leading a notorious leftist militant group in Greece is headed back to prison, less than a month after his release, following a decision by the country’s Supreme Court on Friday. – New York Times

If Andy Burnham wins Thursday’s election in Makerfield, the seat he needs to challenge ​Prime Minister Keir Starmer for the country’s leadership, it may have less to do with his own appeal than the feuding of two populist right-wing parties splitting their vote. – Reuters

The British government’s decision to ban the pro-Palestinian campaign group Palestine ​Action as a terrorist organisation is lawful because of its support for violence, London’s Court of Appeal ruled on Monday. – Reuters

A Ukrainian man was found guilty on Monday of carrying out arson attacks on property connected to British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in May last ​year on behalf of a mystery figure he knew only as “EL Money”. – Reuters

The European Union is poised to implement the import duty cuts it agreed with U.S. President Donald Trump last year, averting at least for now another eruption of tariff ​conflict between the world’s largest trading partners. – Reuters

The European Union and France will sign a €15.1 billion ($17.5 billion) loan agreement for defense on Wednesday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said. – Bloomberg

Greenland has enough bases and permanent troops to support NATO operations and deter Russian threats as Denmark’s multi-billion-dollar push to strengthen defenses in the Arctic remains in its early stages, said the Nordic country’s top military commander on the territory. – Bloomberg

The European Union’s top diplomat said China has been training Russian troops to fight in Ukraine, sharpening Brussels’ criticism of Beijing’s enabling role in the conflict as the bloc weighs a tougher economic and security stance. – Bloomberg

Romania’s prime minister-designate, Adrian Vestea, said he will seek support from other pro-European forces for his government in an attempt to break weeks of political deadlock despite opposition from the majority of his own Liberal Party. – Bloomberg

Hungary began dismantling former leader Viktor Orban’s self-styled illiberal rule by imposing term limits for premiers and winding up public trusts that wielded billions of dollars in assets in an extension of his political influence. – Bloomberg

The European Union opened membership talks with Ukraine and Moldova after the new Hungarian government dropped its opposition, kickstarting a process that will likely take years to complete. – Bloomberg

Four of Europe’s largest steel and chemical manufacturers have requested an immediate halt to the rollout of the EU Emissions Trading System, arguing the bloc’s most important climate policy is too expensive and “no longer reflects current global realities.” – Politico

Matthew Brooker writes: There are more fundamental questions to address first. Returning to the UK in 2022 after more than three decades away, I recognize now that I came back to a much more divided and discontented country than the one I left. It still feels in flux. Britain can’t make credible decisions about its long-term destiny until it has moved beyond this unstable equilibrium. The powers of sovereignty and autonomy reclaimed by Brexit are real; they’re just not free. A shared understanding on that point needs to be the start rather than the end of a journey. – Bloomberg

Africa

Adjei is one of scores of victims of attacks on mostly African foreign nationals accused by an anti-immigration movement of being in South Africa illegally. Many of them have legal papers and deep roots here. – Reuters

Ugandan security forces have arrested Erias Lukwago, a senior opposition figure ‌and lawyer representing detained People’s Front for Freedom party leader Kizza Besigye, who is on trial for treason, the PFF said on Monday. – Reuters

A Nigerian court on Monday ordered the electoral agency to ​de-register one of the main opposition ‌political parties and four others for failing to meet constitutional requirements, a ruling that could reshape ​the field ahead of next January’s elections. – Reuters

Senegal’s ousted prime minister, Ousmane Sonko, softened ‌his tone on debt restructuring in an interview broadcast on Monday, saying he does not hold “rigid positions” on the issue, a departure from his previous staunch opposition to such a move. – Reuters

Ebola treatment centers in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo are becoming overwhelmed as confirmed cases surge past 800 and health workers struggle to track transmission chains, aid groups warned ahead of an emergency summit of African leaders. – Bloomberg

The Americas

Canada’s priority in trade talks with Washington is to seek relief from hefty U.S. tariffs on key industrial sectors like steel, aluminum and automobiles, the country’s ambassador to the U.S. told a Toronto audience. – Wall Street Journal

Canada’s Ambassador to the United ​States, Mark D. ‌Wiseman, said on Monday that discussions with Washington ​on reviewing the ​US-Mexico-Canada free trade pact ⁠and tariffs were ​productive and respectful. – Reuters

Right-wing candidate Keiko Fujimori extended her marginal lead over leftist rival Roberto Sanchez in Peru’s contested presidential race on Monday, as the ​count of thousands of contested votes slowly trickled in. – Reuters

Road blockades that led to food and medicine shortages across Bolivia have begun to recede after 46 days in a conflict that tested the new president’s staying power. – Bloomberg

Andrew Latham writes: Canada and the United States share a continent, a command, and a long list of obligations that all assume Canadian forces will turn up ready to fight beside American ones. On the day that assumption fails, the gap will not close on its own. American assets will cover it, and American planners will quietly file Canada under “unreliable” and plan around it. So the cheques will be large, the announcements impressive, and the underlying problem untouched. The question worth asking is not whether Canada can afford to spend this money. It is whether the people spending it are trying to build a military or an industry, and have convinced themselves that the answer is the same. – National Interest

United States

The Trump administration’s push to boost critical minerals production by regulating prices is facing skeptical G7 allies and a divided mining industry, with negotiations for a Western trading bloc stumbling over concerns about the plan’s cost and governance, according to diplomatic sources and a Reuters analysis of corporate policy recommendations. – Reuters

The US Supreme Court declined to put new limits on President Donald Trump’s tariff authority, leaving in place import taxes imposed during his first term on hundreds of billions of dollars in goods from China. – Bloomberg

California Governor Gavin Newsom accused President Donald Trump of ordering the US Department of Justice to investigate him and his wife, Jennifer Siebel Newsom. – Bloomberg

US intelligence agencies have raised significant doubts regarding Iran’s genuine willingness to surrender the nuclear concessions demanded by Washington, according to briefings delivered by CIA Director John Ratcliffe to President Donald Trump and top aides, Axios reported on Monday. – Arutz Sheva

Gerard Baker writes: But this realism may also require us to do things Mr. Trump hasn’t been so good at, such as working with allies, even feckless ones, or listening to the advice of a friend like Volodymyr Zelensky, with whom we might have inflicted greater damage on a strategic rival, rather than one like Benjamin Netanyahu, in a project that ended up doing us more harm than good. The Hobbesian approach isn’t very idealistic. It doesn’t appeal to the American instinct for moral as well as material superiority. But the naked pursuit of our national interest is a surer route to the survival of our values than the fruitless chasing of unrealistic aspirations. – Wall Street Journal

David Malpass writes: The Fed should shrink its balance sheet to allow private-sector liquidity markets to rebuild, reduce staff and buildings, include the dollar in its inflation models, disentangle the Fed from fiscal policy, extract itself from the climate regulatory morass, and allow regulatory innovations in banking and liquidity markets. Such reforms would rebuild market confidence in the dollar and dollar debt, opening new avenues for faster growth and lower interest rates. – Wall Street Journal

Hugo Gurdon writes: The lighting of the White House was like today’s public prayers of Muslims in the West, an assertion of domination, a political display to declare “we are on the right side of history,” a deliberate stuffing of defeat into the faces of those who sincerely and decently argued that one of the most important institutions of civilized humanity should be preserved in the form it had taken for countless generations. After the noisome practices of the Clinton White House, George W. Bush ran on a promise “to restore honor and dignity to the White House.” It was much needed then. It has been much needed, on and off, for a long time. It is much needed now. – Washington Examiner

Michael Burgess writes: The Treasury Department and Congress should consider targeted measures to discourage the transfer of sensitive biomedical knowledge to countries of concern —  refining outbound investment rules and increasing scrutiny of partnerships involving critical technologies. We acted on Huawei. We acted on TikTok. We must act here too […] We have a narrow window to act. If we fail to address the incentives driving research offshore, we may soon find ourselves dependent on a supply chain we do not control and products we cannot afford to live without. – The Hill

Cybersecurity

Florida’s attorney general sued TikTok ​on Monday over claims it is violating the state’s law barring social media platforms from allowing children under age 14 ‌to create accounts. – Reuters

A federal judge ‌dismissed a lawsuit on Monday by Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence company xAI that accused rival Sam Altman’s OpenAI of stealing trade secrets for chatbots. – Reuters

Chinese AI startup DeepSeek has raised more than 50 ​billion yuan ($7.40 billion) at a valuation exceeding $50 billion ‌in its first funding round, using a structure designed to preserve founder control, the Information reported on Tuesday. – Reuters

Chinese tech ​and e-commerce ‌giant Alibaba unveiled on ​Tuesday ​its first suite ⁠of AI ​models for ​robots, as China’s tech industry ​shifts ​its focus from chatbots ‌to ⁠the more lucrative business of ​agents ​that ⁠can execute ​complex tasks ​and ⁠make machines more ⁠intelligent. – Reuters

President Emmanuel Macron said France would not bow to pressure from President Donald Trump and scrap its digital ​tax on U.S. tech giants, hours before the two meet at a summit on Monday. – Reuters

Italy’s competition regulator said ​on Tuesday it had opened an investigation ‌into Apple over compliance with interoperability obligations, under the European Digital Markets Act. – Reuters

India has blocked the Telegram messaging app until June ​22, saying the platform has been ‌used to “defraud candidates” taking the medical entrance examination, the Ministry of Education said in a statement on ​Tuesday. – Reuters

The Group of Seven leaders will “further discuss emerging opportunities and potential risks arising from AI, notably in the financial sector,” according to a draft statement seen by Bloomberg that’s subject to change. – Bloomberg

Google threat hunters spotted yet another Chinese state-sponsored espionage group that for years had burrowed into systems belonging to government and private organizations to steal data across academia, medicine, military, cybersecurity and foreign policy. – CyberScoop

Editorial: Anthropic has done itself no favors by hyping its latest models as fundamentally game-changing rather than simply ahead of the curve. That is defensible as marketing. But now the company is acting surprised that bureaucrats took the pitch at face value. Technology waits for no one, neither the regulators nor the labs. Anthropic’s models are not the unique source of the cyberthreat. The only answer to dangerous AI is more of it in the right hands. – Washington Post

Vincent Peters writes: Washington should spend as much time discussing energy generation, communications networks, manufacturing capacity, and infrastructure deployment as it spends discussing the latest AI model. The countries that dominate the next technological era will not simply be the ones that invent the best tools. They will be the ones that build the systems required to power, connect, and distribute those tools to the world. The AI race is not just a software competition. It is an infrastructure competition. America should act like it. – Washington Examiner

Defense

Eight crew members are believed dead after a U.S. Air Force B-52 bomber they were on crashed shortly after takeoff at Edwards Air Force Base in California, the base said Monday. – Wall Street Journal

The Pentagon publicly announced an 82nd Airborne deployment to U.S. Central Command earlier this year. What officials did not announce was that some of those troops were headed to Israel. – Military.com

Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., is pressing the Pentagon to disclose how it’s confronting potentially serious operational risks to U.S. military personnel as insiders hustle to fulfill the Trump administration’s new 90-day mandate to rewrite the policy for deploying and safeguarding autonomous weapon systems in warfare. – Defenscescoop

U.S. Special Operations Command “reported mixed success” in meeting cost and schedule goals for several of its most expensive acquisition programs, according to a Government Accountability Office report. – Defensescoop

Dana Stroul writes: During Epic Fury, the U.S. military proved its operational value to Middle Eastern partners and confirmed its unique conventional capabilities. Shared wartime experience ought to give the United States a good foundation from which to rebuild and expand its partnerships. But the discordance between the strong relationships the United States continues to enjoy with regional militaries and its increasingly tense political relationships is growing. The Trump administration must leverage Central Command’s accomplishments to deliver an agreement that blunts Iran’s threat. And it must make systemic changes to how Washington works with regional partners. If it falls short on either front, Epic Fury will stand as the defining contradiction of U.S. power—a display of unequaled military might that ushered in a post-American Middle East. – Foreign Affairs

Florence Gaub and Jonathan Heist write: There is also a simpler explanation. NATO endures because its members, when forced to choose, have consistently decided that the alternative is worse. Contrary to the beliefs of those who see in every spat the potential end of the transatlantic relationship, the alliance is not held together by sentiment, shared values, or the memory of two world wars, although all of those play an adhesive role. It is held together by a calculation that the security costs of abandoning it exceed the political costs of sustaining it. That calculation has held through the many crises of the last eight decades; it is holding now. None of this means the current crisis is trivial or that NATO’s future is guaranteed. But the appropriate response to uncertainty is not to mistake a familiar fight for a fatal one. – Foreign Affairs