Modi Era India displays geopolitical acumen

Geopolitically, one of the deftest accomplishments of the Modi Era has been that India has shifted from being seen (rightly or wrongly) in places like Washington D.C. as a potentially obstructionist behemoth to an India that is so constantly and seamlessly part of trade, innovation, defence, etc., that its presence is taken for granted.

India has gone from being the elephant in the room of geopolitics, to myriad smaller elephants on shelves, tables, in picture frames—it is such a part of the room, it is often overlooked.

This is a tremendously clever and complex achievement. At times like this, it is better not to be front and centre. It takes maturity, patience and focus—especially as the policies of others change, wars are started, insults hurled. It doesn’t happen by accident. It is the result of a cohesion of purpose, discipline and geopolitical acumen.

Is India supposed to buy Russian oil now or not? I’ve lost track. Which is the point. India has stood its ground but also managed its response quietly, avoiding headlines in foreign capitals that can be used to drive wedges.

INDIA MASTERS NAVIGATING ON TROUBLED WATERS

This approach may not garner attention, but it bears results. Some examples:

Prime Minister Modi was one of the few world leaders who managed the 2016 election of President Trump with effectiveness and grace, building on it to strengthen ties and reinforce the role of the diaspora, including through major events like Howdy Modi (Houston, 2019).

During and after Galwan in 2020, India’s military and strategic communities showed the depth of their commitment to defending India against kinetic and political warfare attacks by, first, getting the better of the People’s Liberation Army and then quickly, and without fanfare, moving to defend the cognitive and economic battlespace by (among other things) banning scores of Chinese apps—including TikTok (something the U.S., after years of debate and legislation, still hasn’t managed to do).

India quietly managed the catastrophic 2021 U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan—including the abandonment of Bagram Airfield and the leaving behind of tens of billions of dollars worth of military equipment in the hands of the Taliban—with resourcefulness and determination, resulting in limiting the detrimental effect to domestic Indian security.

In 2022, India used diplomatic skill and personal relationships to get its students (and the students of other countries) safely out of Ukraine at the start of the war.

Since the attack on Israel in 2023, India has made careful efforts to keep lines open with the Arab world and providing humanitarian relief while, at the same time, deepening ties with Israel on issues of broader defence and security. A remarkable diplomatic feat.

2024 brought the re-election of President Trump and, by 2025, there were issues involving perceptions and tariffs that had the potential to do serious damage to the relationship. Again, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) didn’t rise to the bait and instead did its best to dampen fires (some set accidentally, some maliciously) and protect India’s interests, while less visible ties with the U.S. continued. Eventually, tensions started to ease when the new U.S. Ambassador (who chose India as a post and has the ear of the President) arrived. Needless to say, the hurt continues, but India did an admirable job at limiting the damage during the tensest times.

These are a few of the countless events and incidents (none initiated by India) since Prime Minister Modi was first elected that could have negatively affected India if it had less determined and seasoned leadership.

Not only has India weathered those storms, it is posting growth that is the envy of most other countries, while societal indicators like literacy, access to sanitation, access to clean water and more have dramatically improved.

Which brings us to today. Modi Era India, like a duck on a turbulent river, has been paddling hard beneath the surface to reach its goals, while working to look unremarkable on top of the water. In most of the world, that has worked. You’d be amazed how much the DC/Western think-tank community doesn’t think about India.

But you know who has noticed? China. India’s success is an existential threat to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) because it is a real-world example that undermines so many of Beijing’s justifications for its (as the Filipinos describe it) illegal, coercive, aggressive and deceptive behaviour.

THUCYDIDES TRAP FAILS ‘INDIA TEST’

I found this out recently when, after the Trump visit to China, I went on a U.S. talk show to discuss Chairman Xi’s comment: “Can China and the U.S. overcome the so-called ‘Thucydides Trap’ and create a new paradigm of major-country relations?”

It was Xi’s way of trying to normalize—to the point of inevitability—that a rising power was necessarily going to build a military and seek to overtake and destroy an established power.

The only problem is, that conceptualization fails the “India test”—in which you compare a CCP statement of “fact” about why China acts the way it does with the way India acts. India is also a rising power—and it has a larger population than China, higher growth, better demographics and more. And yet India isn’t trying to destroy anyone—it is trying to build, including the neighbourhood through MAHASAGAR and more.

The same is true for CCP statements about how its “century of humiliation” during colonialism means it is understandable if it is aggressive towards others. If colonization is the timeline, India had three or four centuries of “humiliation”, but it doesn’t use that narrative for attempted subjugation of others, but instead for fighting for broader liberty.

China uses the Opium Wars to justify pumping fentanyl into other countries (“they did it to us so it’s understandable if we do it to them”—ignoring that the U.S. was not the primary driver of the Opium Wars, and that two wrongs don’t make a right). Meanwhile, the India state wouldn’t even consider doing that, in fact instead of exporting death, it is exporting health-giving low-cost pharmaceuticals.

The online reaction by China’s 50c army to the “India test” was massive and vicious. It clearly hit a nerve, because it is true. The India of today can reshape the world of tomorrow. Instead of a closed, corrupt system based on illegal, coercive, aggressive and deceptive activities, as we can see flowing out of China and into West Philippines Sea and Pacific Islands, Modi Era India is an essential pillar supporting a free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific (and beyond).

The massive positive changes in India during the Modi Era may not be fully understood in the think-tanks in DC, but they have been noticed by Beijing. The fact China finds them so threatening is a testament to their power. Everywhere Beijing turns in the geopolitical room, it can see the elephant, quiet, powerful and determined. China will lash out, try to break things, but what is being built by India is durable, and essential.

Anyway, this isn’t about China. This is about India. Since May 26, 2014, India has grown, adapted, learned and nurtured the herd.

There is still much to do, domestically and internationally, but what has already been accomplished has changed India—and the world. And given that most valuable, motivating gift, hope.

Cleo Paskal is Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and columnist with The Sunday Guardian.