Fdd's overnight brief

February 5, 2026

FDD Research & Analysis

In The News

Israel

The U.S. has yet to secure funding commitments for its Gaza reconstruction plan as potential donors voice concerns that disagreements over Hamas disarmament could lead Israel to resume full-scale war in the enclave, sources told Reuters. – Reuters

Israeli tank shelling and airstrikes killed 24 Palestinians including seven children in Gaza on Wednesday, health officials said, the latest violence to undermine the nearly four-month-old ceasefire in the enclave. – Reuters

The Hamas terrorist who murdered surveillance soldier Corporal Noa Marciano while she was held captive in Gaza has been eliminated, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced Wednesday. – Fox News

Amid the recent start of phase two of the U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Hamas and the Jewish state, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) claim that Hamas has violated the deal through its misuse of ambulances, hospitals and schools to regain control of the northern Gaza Strip. – Fox News

As Israel begins to allow a trickle of Palestinians through the Rafah Crossing, Gazans stranded in Egypt are torn between staying in exile without formal status or returning to a land in ruins. “Return to Gaza for what? To live in a tent?” demanded Mohamed, a 78-year-old poet from Beit Lahiya in northern Gaza. – ⁠Agence France Presse

There is a strong likelihood that the Houthis will resume their attacks on Israel and on US ships if the US strikes Iran, Israeli public broadcaster KAN News reported on Wednesday. – ⁠Jerusalem Post 

The IDF announced on Wednesday that a Palestinian Islamic Jihad official it had killed earlier in the day was one of the most senior it has assassinated since the October 2025 ceasefire. – Jerusalem Post

The Defense Ministry on Thursday announced a $130 million deal with Elbit Systems to outfit and integrate advanced Israeli technologies into the 12 CH-53K “Pereh” helicopters which it has purchased from Lockheed Martin. – ⁠Jerusalem Post

Anti-Hamas militias across Gaza appear to be taking concrete, coordinated steps to disrupt the ruling terrorist group, carrying out targeted attacks and expanding their operations in a bid to weaken Hamas’s hold on the territory. – Algemeiner

After more than two years of fighting, during which Israel eliminated senior leaders of terrorist organizations in Gaza and Lebanon and struck the top security echelon in Iran, the IDF Operations Directorate has decided to significantly expand the General Staff unit responsible for protecting senior officers, according to a report by military correspondent Doron Kadosh on Galei Tzahal. – Arutz Sheva

Iran

The U.S. and Iran have reached an agreement to hold nuclear talks in Oman on Friday, ending a drama over what would be discussed, but restarting a delicate diplomatic dance that may yet end with President Trump ordering airstrikes on Iran. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump said he spoke Wednesday with Xi Jinping about the “situation in Iran,” hours after the Chinese leader held a call with Moscow on those same escalating tensions. – Wall Street Journal

Russia’s foreign ministry said on Wednesday that a proposal to remove uranium from Iran as part of a deal to ease U.S. concerns was still on the table, but that it was for Tehran to decide whether or not to remove it. – Reuters

“I would say he should be very worried, yeah. He should be,” Trump said in an interview with NBC News on Wednesday, when asked about Iran’s supreme leader. “As you know, they are negotiating with us. – Bloomberg

The Iranian drone shot down by the U.S. military over the Arabian Sea was conducting surveillance as part of a “routine and lawful mission over international waters,” Iranian media is claiming. – Fox News

Secretary of State Marco Rubio outlined on Wednesday what the Trump administration views as the minimum requirements for successful nuclear negotiations with Iran, insisting that any deal with Tehran be comprehensive and address its ballistic missile capabilities, support for regional terrorism and repression of its people, in addition to the nuclear issue. – Jewish Insider

Editorial: The protesters begged for help because they believed Trump’s warnings. They renamed their streets because they thought American power would protect them, and they were slaughtered anyway. Now, Trump is prepared to sit and deal with this regime. As it stands, he has betrayed the Iranian people, and they are unlikely to ever forgive him for this. But it’s not too late. President Trump, topple this regime. – Jerusalem Post

Marc A. Thiessen writes: Trump faces a stark choice: He can either give the Iranian regime a lifeline, or put it on the path to destruction. He can repeat the mistakes of Biden and Obama, or take his place alongside Ronald Reagan and Franklin D. Roosevelt as one of the few U.S. presidents whose decisive leadership transformed the world. In his inaugural address, Trump said that he believed he was saved from an assassin’s bullet for a reason — to help America “reclaim its rightful place as the greatest, most powerful, most respected nation on earth.” Well, these are the decisions from which greatness is made. Providence has placed this opportunity in his hands. I trust him to make the courageous choice. – ⁠Washington Post

Arik Segal writes: Perhaps most critically, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei may have made a strategic blunder by personally labeling Trump a “criminal.” While the American president might tolerate a tactical loss in the information war, he is unlikely to overlook a personal affront to his name. Whether the response is cognitive or kinetic, America will likely make its move soon. – Jerusalem Post

Russia and Ukraine

For decades, the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals have been constrained by a series of treaties. But that’s set to change Thursday, when the last remaining nuclear arms limitation treaty between the United States and Russia, known as New START, expires. – ⁠Washington Post

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Wednesday called the expiration of the New START Treaty a grave moment for international peace and security and urged Russia and the United States to negotiate a new nuclear arms control framework without delay. – Reuters

Russia said on Wednesday it was open to diplomacy on nuclear security but would resolutely counter any new threats, after what it called a mistaken and regrettable decision by the United States not to stick to the missile and warhead limits of the expiring New START nuclear treaty. – Reuters

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin hailed their ties during a video call on Wednesday held in the run-up to the fourth anniversary of Moscow’s war in Ukraine. – Reuters

Ukraine and Russia on Thursday started a second day of U.S.-brokered talks in Abu Dhabi to discuss how to end their four-year-old war, top Ukrainian negotiator Rustem Umerov said. – Reuters

Two people were hurt in a Russian overnight drone attack in Ukraine’s capital Kyiv, Mayor Vitali Klitschko said on Thursday. – Reuters

At least seven people were killed and eight more hurt in Russian attacks in the town of Druzhkivka in the Ukraine-controlled frontline region of Donetsk in the east, the regional governor said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Russia’s public deficit could balloon to almost triple the official target by end-2026 as a fall in Indian purchases of oil and growing oil trade discounts eat into revenues while spending may be higher than expected, a source close to the government told Reuters. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called on US President Donald Trump to send more weapons for his military to put it in a better position to force Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war. – Bloomberg

Ukraine’s war chest stands to get a vital cash injection after EU envoys agreed on a €90 billion loan to finance Kyiv’s defense against Russia, the Cypriot Council presidency said on Wednesday. – Politico

Ukraine and Sweden are discussing the prospect of arming Kyiv with Europe’s top air-to-air missile, the Meteor, which a Saab official said would be a “natural content” of a weapon package for Gripen users. – Defense News

Russian defense companies have vanished from major airshows in Asia, which experts say reflects the country’s shrinking and increasingly concentrated arms-export industry. – Defense News

Syria

U.S. Central Command said on Wednesday that it carried out five strikes against multiple Islamic State targets in Syria, including a weapons storage facilities with 50 precision munitions. – Reuters

The Syrian government has prevented an al Qaeda-linked book from being displayed at a Damascus book fair after a request from Baghdad, an Iraqi security official said on Wednesday, as Iraq seeks to improve ties with Syria’s Islamist-led government. – Reuters

Chevron has signed a memorandum of understanding, or an initial agreement, with the Syrian Petroleum Company and the Qatari firm UCC Holding to evaluate exploration for oil and gas offshore Syria, a spokesperson for the U.S. major said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Sam Brownback, the former U.S. ambassador at large for international religious freedom and a former GOP senator, warned Wednesday that, unless Syrian minority groups are allowed to maintain their own security forces, they face a likely genocide by government-aligned forces. – Jewish Insider

Middle East & North Africa

For years, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates opted to resolve their disagreements and border disputes quietly, behind the scenes. Now it appears as if a dam has burst, with the consequences rippling across the region and beyond. The rupture between the two powerful and oil-rich neighbors, both of which have cultivated vast global influence, has the potential to move markets and exacerbate wars. – New York Times

Tunisian police arrested lawmaker Ahmed Saidani on Wednesday, two of his colleagues said, in what appeared to be part of an escalating crackdown on critics of President Kais Saied. – Reuters

India and the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council, that includes Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have agreed on the terms to start negotiations for a free trade agreement, India’s trade minister Piyush Goyal said on Thursday. – Reuters

Vital aid flights to the Houthi-controlled capital of Yemen, blocked for a month by the Iran-aligned group, will resume this month, allowing critical supplies to reach millions in need amid a worsening humanitarian crisis, the U.N. said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Seif al-Islam al-Qaddafi, the son of the late Libyan dictator Muammar al-Qaddafi, was reportedly killed by “four masked men,” according to his team. – Fox News

Michael Rubin writes: Salman’s ignorance of his army and capabilities mirrors the problems the U.S. Army faced after Vietnam. Leaders demanded “zero defects,” and so rather than address shortcomings, subordinates told superiors what they wanted to hear. Good leaders understood that dynamic, but most, such as Salman today, believed staff reports that were more fiction than fact. The Yemen debacle suggests that Salman has not corrected the dynamics that led to the death of Muslim Brotherhood activist and Washington Post contributor Jamal Khashoggi. No one among the crown prince’s entire inner circle dared warn him about the risks of failure. The difference then was that only one Saudi died. By failing to understand how incompetent his military is today, Salman has guaranteed the deaths of hundreds, if not thousands, more Saudis. – Washington Examiner

Korean Peninsula

South Korea’s top trade envoy said on Thursday that Washington has yet to take an administrative step to impose higher tariffs on its goods and that he believes such action is not necessary as Seoul works to meet the terms of their trade deal. – Reuters

South Korea’s National Assembly has agreed to finalise a bill to make investments in the United States by March 9 under a trade deal between the countries, the ruling and main opposition parties said on Wednesday. – Reuters

South Korea is seeking closer cooperation with China on critical mineral supply chains, its trade ministry said on Thursday, as Seoul unveiled plans to secure stable supplies of rare earths needed for cutting-edge technologies. – Reuters

China

China is considering buying more U.S.-farmed soybeans, President Donald Trump said after what he called “very positive” talks with President Xi Jinping on Wednesday, even as Beijing warned Washington about arms sales to Taiwan. – Reuters

China is willing to deepen practical cooperation and strengthen strategic coordination with Laos, President Xi Jinping said to Laos President Thongloun Sisoulith in a message, state news agency Xinhua reported on Thursday. – Reuters

Javier Blas writes: In theory, China can go further still, offsetting whatever barrels India and Turkey don’t buy by storing them in its strategic petroleum reserve. So Beijing’s next move will have profound implications for the global market. Decline to mop up the black-market glut and Russia and Iran would have to cut production, pushing up the crude price for everyone. Buy more illicit stuff and China could cut its purchases of non-sanctioned barrels, making more of them available and potentially forcing prices down. Not for the first time, Beijing finds itself in a position of influence over strategic resources. – Bloomberg

Arturo McFields writes: Let’s be clear, China has not lost all its power and influence in Latin America, but the new U.S. National Security Strategy, and in particular the Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine (“Donroe”), is slowing down and reversing Beijing’s advance in the region. The capture of Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, maximum pressure on Cuba, the end of 20 years of socialism in Bolivia, the ports in Panama, Peru drawing closer to NATO and the military preeminence of the U.S. in the Americas is a historical event. The U.S. is back, its leadership is stronger and the region is safer. – The Hill

South Asia

At least 216 militants have been killed in all in Pakistan’s Balochistan province and the security operation launched against them has ended, Pakistan’s military said on Thursday. – Reuters

Myanmar’s junta will form a new entity to oversee both the military and civilian administration, a move experts say will allow paramount ruler Min Aung Hlaing to become president without loosening his grip on the powerful armed forces. – Reuters

Amid deepening security ties between India and the U.S., New Delhi has significantly increased procurement of military equipment from Washington even as supplies from Russia, for long India’s biggest source of weapons, decline significantly. – Defense News

Mihir Sharma writes: The odd thing, of course, is that both sides are not just pretending to have won. When trade barriers fall, both sides do in fact win. And if tariffs are actually lowered by New Delhi and Washington, Indians and Americans will both benefit. But, sadly for them, neither leader can admit that. So, instead, both have to feign a victory that they have in fact achieved. – Bloomberg

Asia

If Taiwan’s opposition-controlled parliament continues to block $40 billion in proposed extra defence spending the international community could misunderstand the island’s determination to defend itself, President Lai Ching-te said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Naval missions by foreign countries in the Taiwan Strait are about asserting international law, rather than offering provocation, France’s de facto ambassador in Taipei said on Thursday, speaking of voyages that routinely infuriate China. – Reuters

Australian authorities said on Thursday they were treating as a terrorism incident an attempt to bomb a rally protesting against the country’s national day on January 26, the first such charge in the state of Western Australia. – Reuters

An Australian teenager has been charged for allegedly making online death threats against Israeli President Isaac Herzog, ahead of his upcoming visit to Australia. – Reuters

The Philippine House justice committee on Wednesday said two impeachment complaints against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, accusing him of corruption, violating the constitution and betraying public trust, were lacking in substance. – Reuters

Taiwan’s ties with the United States are “rock solid,” the island’s president said Thursday, hours after President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke on the phone about topics that included the self-ruled island’s future. – ⁠Associated Press

Editorial: Japan offers a surprisingly hopeful story as the economy appears to be slowly grinding into gear after 35 years of near-stagnation. But dangers lurk as the financial system (in Japan and abroad) transitions to higher interest rates, tensions with China loom, and trade disruption with the U.S. drags on. Ms. Takaichi is likely to emerge from Sunday’s election with a big personal vote of confidence from the Japanese public. As for a plan, the world will have to stay tuned. – Wall Street Journal

Riley Walters writes: Regardless of the election results, the most important thing for the U.S.-Japan relationship right now is making sure the U.S.-Japan investment deal makes progress. U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent threat of tariffs against South Korea shows domestic politics is no excuse for slow implementation, and the last thing a new government in Tokyo should want is to start off the year renegotiating tariffs. – Nikkei Asia

Europe

A Russian incursion, or outright invasion, into countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union has become more likely because of Europe’s tensions with President Trump over Greenland, Ukraine, trade and other matters, many European security and political leaders say. – Wall Street Journal

Estonia’s Tax and Customs Board said late on Tuesday it had detained a container ship sailing under the Bahamian flag in Estonia’s internal waters that may be linked to smuggling from Ecuador. – Reuters

The moderate Socialist candidate is poised for a decisive victory over the populist far-right leader in Sunday’s presidential election run-off in Portugal, according to a new poll. – Reuters

Four people, including two Chinese nationals, have been arrested in France on suspicion of spying for China and were brought before an investigative judge, the Paris public prosecutor’s office said on Wednesday. – Reuters

The U.K. government agreed Wednesday to release documents casting light on the decision to appoint Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the United States, despite his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein, as it tries to stem mounting anger over the revelations. – ⁠Associated Press

Hungary has ordered its courts to scrap lawsuits challenging the government over a contentious charge on cities, seeking to override the judiciary in what critics said was a fresh attack on the rule of law. – ⁠Financial Times

The EU’s conservatives are convening for the second time in a week as they increase internal coordination after a tough first year of Ursula von der Leyen’s second term at the head of the European Commission. – Politico

Finland has urged U.S. officials not to describe future security pledges to a postwar Ukraine as “Article 5-like,” implying that doing so could undercut the mutual defense clause at the heart of the NATO military alliance, according to a State Department cable obtained by POLITICO. – Politico

The European Parliament’s top trade lawmakers on Wednesday failed to reach a common position on the EU-U.S. trade deal, a development that could fuel Washington’s impatience at the EU’s tardiness in keeping its side of a bargain struck last summer. – Politico

Gabriele Natalizia and Matteo Mazziotti di Celso write: Addressing this gap would require sustained investment in funded university and think tank projects, public lectures and workshops, school outreach, open-base days, internships and fellowships, and pilot programs to create or strengthen regional reserve units. Without a more open and intellectually pluralistic academic environment—one that treats military effectiveness and defense industrial cooperation as legitimate objects of study—higher defense spending is unlikely to translate into genuine military capability. – Foreign Policy

Africa

At least 167 people have been killed by gunmen in attacks on two villages in a rural part of Nigeria, according to the Nigerian branch of the Red Cross. The attack was one of the deadliest in recent years in a country racked by violence, including terrorism, kidnappings for ransom, and insurgency. – ⁠New York Times

The leader of the second-largest party in South Africa’s government announced on Wednesday that he would not seek re-election, casting uncertainty over the direction of the country’s fragile governing coalition. – ⁠New York Times

South Africa’s trade minister Parks Tau will travel to China from Thursday to Saturday to sign the China–Africa Economic Partnership Agreement, which will see South African exports gain duty-free access to the Chinese market, Tau’s office said. – Reuters

Afreximbank – Africa’s biggest trade bank – has lined up an initial $8 billion financing package for new member South Africa, backing projects in sectors like mining, automaking and manufacturing, it said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Médecins Sans Frontières said its hospital in South Sudan’s Jonglei state, where it serves more than 200,000 people, was hit by an airstrike on Tuesday night, destroying the hospital’s main warehouse and most of its critical medical supplies. – Reuters

Ivanhoe Mines is in advanced talks with Congo’s state miner Gecamines and Swiss commodities trader Mercuria to channel zinc‑rich concentrate from its giant Kipushi mine to the United States under Washington’s new strategic stockpiling scheme Project Vault, the company said. – Reuters

Eswatini’s high court has thrown out a case filed by human rights lawyers and activists that challenged the government’s deal with the United States to accept third-country deportees. – Reuters

The Americas

The Trump administration is counting on foreign entities working with the Venezuelan state oil company to fuel what the American president hopes will be a $100 billion investment boom in the South American country’s energy industry. – Wall Street Journal

Venezuelan security agents have questioned two prominent businessmen who have faced money laundering charges in the United States, according to five Venezuelans and a U.S. official. – ⁠New York Times

Twenty-two more prisoners have been released in Venezuela, the country’s top legal rights group said on Wednesday, as liberations promised by the interim government slowly continue. – Reuters

Venezuelan official Alex Saab, a former businessman once held in the U.S., was arrested in Venezuela on Wednesday as part of a joint operation between U.S. and Venezuelan authorities, a U.S. law enforcement official said. – Reuters

Russia has repeatedly supplied oil to Cuba in recent years, and will continue to do so, Russia’s ambassador to Cuba Viktor Coronelli said in an interview with state news agency RIA. – Reuters

A team working for President Donald Trump’s spy chief, Tulsi Gabbard, last spring led an investigation into Puerto Rico’s voting machines, said Gabbard’s office and three sources familiar with the previously unreported events. – Reuters

Argentina and the United States signed an agreement on critical minerals on Wednesday to strengthen and secure supply chains, the Argentine foreign ministry said. – Reuters

An Argentine judge on Wednesday requested the extradition from the United States of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who was captured by the U.S. military last month and now faces federal charges of narco-terrorism and conspiracy to import cocaine in New York. – ⁠Associated Press

United States

The U.S. has agreed to work with Japan, Mexico and the European Union on the development of critical minerals used in industries such as defense, the Trump administration said on Wednesday. – Wall Street Journal

The top Democrat on a House committee overseeing U.S.-China competition has launched an investigation into a $500 million investment by an Abu Dhabi royal in a Trump family cryptocurrency company and is urging a U.S. attorney to probe the deal as well. – Wall Street Journal

A man accused of killing two Israeli diplomats in Washington, D.C., last year was indicted on four additional counts of terrorism, in a new indictment that was unsealed on Wednesday. – Reuters

The Department of Homeland Security will immediately pull 700 officers from Minneapolis, a reduction of about a quarter, amid efforts to deescalate tensions after federal agents killed two US citizens. – Bloomberg

Cybersecurity

American tech behemoths are racing to establish leadership in artificial intelligence not just in the U.S., but also around the world. India is welcoming them with open arms. – Wall Street Journal

The Trump administration is willing to allow China’s ByteDance to buy Nvidia’s H200 chips, but the AI chipmaker has not agreed to proposed conditions for their use, according to a person familiar with the matter. – Reuters

TSMC plans to mass produce advanced 3-nanometre chips in Kumamoto in southern Japan, TSMC CEO C.C. Wei said on Thursday, an investment local media reported was worth $17 billion as the Taiwanese firm seeks to meet soaring demand for AI chips. – Reuters

Social media firm TikTok is “extremely cooperative” with the European Commission’s ongoing investigation on potential interference in the 2024 Romanian elections, Commission spokesperson Thomas Regnier said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Investors were assessing on Wednesday whether a selloff in global software stocks this week had gone too far, as they weighed if businesses could survive an existential threat posed by artificial intelligence. – Reuters

European lawmakers from three left-leaning parties said Wednesday the EU should investigate TikTok over allegations of censorship in favor of the right. – Politico

A Taiwanese national was sentenced to 30 years in U.S. prison for his role as an administrator of Incognito Market, a popular dark web platform that facilitated millions of dollars worth of drug sales.  –  ⁠The Record

Louise Perry writes: Laws that restrict access to social media for those under 16 could also make it harder for adults to use these platforms, for instance by demanding that users provide a driver’s license or other identification. Few political dissidents will be willing to clear such a hurdle, effectively restricting their ability to speak online. This will all be done in the name of “safety.” But the censorious effect is the same, even if deployed covertly. I am conflicted. As a parent, I want my government to protect my children. But as a citizen, I don’t want my government to treat me like a child. – Wall Street Journal

Clara Riedenstein writes: After Grok backed down, individual governments took credit. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer celebrated the chatbot’s climbdown as a rare win for the administration after months of suffering under abysmal approval ratings. The European Commission depicted it as a victory against American tech companies. Instead of viewing this as a show of strength for one country, the takeaway should be that governments acting together may force change. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Defense

Raytheon, a division of RTX, announced Wednesday that it would ramp up production of several key missile systems, weeks after President Donald Trump threatened to nix the company’s government contracts unless it invested more in manufacturing. – Defense News

Aircraft carrier John F. Kennedy (CVN-79) is back at HII’s Newport News Shipbuilding division after wrapping up builder’s trials, the company said Wednesday. – USNI News 

At roughly $700 per base model, the HANX platform is the Marine Corps’ first 3D-printed drone that complies with laws prohibiting the U.S. military from acquiring and using unmanned aerial systems with parts from certain foreign entities, according to the service. – Defensescoop