Iranian regime escalates hostilities with US, hardens negotiating position

Iran has ramped up military provocations against US forces in the Middle East as nuclear negotiations loom, with regime officials sending mixed signals on uranium enrichment while refusing to discuss missile programs or terror proxies.

On February 3, a US Navy fighter jet shot down an Iranian drone after it aggressively approached the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea, according to US Central Command. The drone continued toward the aircraft carrier despite the US conducting de-escalatory measures while operating in international waters.

That day, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)-affiliated Tasnim News wrote that the “Shahed-129 drone was carrying out its routine and lawful mission in international waters” and “successfully sent its reconnaissance and surveillance imagery to the control center.” The outlet did not confirm that the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) was struck by the US military, instead claiming that the drone “experienced a loss of communication” and the cause of the malfunction “is currently under investigation.”

The shootdown occurred within hours of Iranian forces also harassing a US-flagged and -crewed merchant vessel that was sailing in the Strait of Hormuz. Six armed IRGC speedboats reportedly approached the Stena Imperative tanker off the coast of Oman, hailed the ship by radio, and ordered the captain “to stop the engines and prepare to be boarded.”

This series of hostilities initiated by the regime followed a range of threats issued by Islamic Republic officials as Washington and Tehran are scheduling talks over Iran’s nuclear program, among other potential topics. However, Iranian parliamentarian Amirhossein Sabeti called for a “preemptive strike against Israel and US bases” and labeled negotiations with the US as a “strategic mistake.”

Similarly, the IRGC-affiliated Fars News posted an infographic with pins highlighting numerous US Army, Navy, and Air Force bases across the Middle East and the Horn of Africa. Nour News, a media outlet with close ties to the regime’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), posted on February 4 that it will announce “major structural, managerial decisions in response to new threats.”

Tehran’s contradictory messaging on enrichment and other negotiation topics

On February 2, The New York Times reported that anonymous Iranian officials claimed that the regime is “willing to shut down or suspend its nuclear program” to calm tensions but would prefer a previous US proposal that allowed the creation of “a regional consortium to produce nuclear power.”

In contrast, during a February 2 interview, SNC head Ali Shamkhani rejected any prospects of transferring already enriched uranium outside of Iran and stayed firm on the regime’s longstanding demand to maintain uranium enrichment capacity. “Sixty percent enrichment can be reduced and diluted to twenty percent. If they (the US) are worried, we can reduce the enrichment level to twenty percent, but they must pay the cost for it,” Shamkhani said.

Another ambiguity is whether the US-Iran talks would be limited to the nuclear file or if Tehran would finally discuss the other two concerns raised by Washington: its ballistic missile program and support for terror networks.

Iranian sources previously told Reuters that US President Donald Trump had demanded three conditions for resumption of talks: Zero enrichment of uranium in Iran, limits on ballistic missile ranges, and ending its backing of regional militias. Iran has long rejected all three demands, but two Iranian officials told Reuters that regime policymakers view the ballistic missile program as a greater obstacle to negotiations than uranium enrichment.

Qatar, which has been seeking to facilitate the talks between the Iranian regime and the Trump administration, reaffirmed on February 3 that “the existing challenges cannot be reduced to a single issue; what is required now is a comprehensive return to a new negotiation track where all files are placed on the table.”

However, Shamkhani had already pushed back against discussing non-nuclear topics during talks: “One of the conditions of the negotiations is that they should be limited only to the nuclear issue.”

Iran’s ongoing anti-regime movement is an existential threat to the Islamic Republic

Citing multiple regime officials, Reuters reported on February 2 that the Islamic Republic’s leadership is increasingly worried that a US strike could break its grip on power by driving an already volatile and resentful public back onto the streets. “People are extremely angry,” one official said, adding that a US attack could lead Iranians to rise up again. “The wall of fear has collapsed. There is no fear left.”

The Islamic Republic’s worry about being overthrown by Iranians was so significant that the regime imported thousands of regional terror proxies to kill over 36,000 unarmed protesters within days, according to some estimates. Despite the repression, scattered acts of protest have still erupted around the country, such as the large turnout for a protester’s funeral in Dezful city, where thousands marched on February 4.

Janatan Sayeh is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies focused on Iranian domestic affairs and the Islamic Republic’s regional malign influence.