Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is making an urgent trip to Washington, as concern grows in Israel that the U.S. and Iran could agree to a nuclear deal that falls short of its requirements for ending the threat from Tehran. – Wall Street Journal

The United States is demanding that Hamas surrender all weapons that are capable of striking Israel, but will allow the group to keep some small arms, at least initially, according to a draft plan, officials and people familiar with the proposal said. – New York Times

Bereaved families and their supporters blocked roads, staged work stoppages and dyed public fountains red across Israel on Tuesday to protest a surge in gun violence plaguing the country’s Palestinian-Arab minority community. – New York Times

Israel fund manager FINQ said on Tuesday it was entering the U.S. Exchange-Traded Funds market with two funds that will be solely managed by artificial intelligence, a nascent sub-sector where so far AI has only been used as a supporting tool. – Reuters

Israeli defense company Rafael Advanced Defense Systems could begin its privatization as early as late 2026, the Iron Dome missile defense maker’s chairman told Reuters on Tuesday. – Reuters

Russian-born Israeli freelance journalist Nick Kolyohin was removed by Shin Bet agents from the Wing of Zion plane Tuesday morning after boarding the aircraft for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s flight to Washington. – Agence France-Presse

When Hamas fired some 3,700 rockets, and its invasion force of around 5,600 men penetrated Israel’s border at 119 different spots to take over a couple of dozen villages at 6:29 a.m. on October 7, Israel’s top officials went into shock. – Jerusalem Post

The IDF arrested a suspect armed with an M4-type rifle in the area of Kafr Shufa, near Tulkarm, in the West Bank on Tuesday, the military said in a statement. – Jerusalem Post

Israel Police and Border Police officers arrested a hit squad of assassins in the Triangle of Arab-Israeli communities in northern Israel, police confirmed on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post

The Israeli agency COGAT (Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories: Judea and Samaria and towards the Gaza Strip) refuted claims made by Doctors Without Borders (MSF) that by limiting that organization’s activities in Gaza, the Israeli government is creating a water crisis there. – Jerusalem Post

The IDF on Tuesday announced that it is reestablishing Tank Division 38 as a sign of the ongoing rise of IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir’s new post-October 7 army. – Jerusalem Post

Two Israeli terrorists had their citizenship revoked and were expelled from the country for the first time in history, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post

The Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) thwarted a Lebanon-linked terror cell operating in the West Bank, a Shin Bet spokesperson confirmed on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will tell US President Donald Trump during their meeting on Wednesday that the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire “is not moving,” an Israeli source with knowledge of the details told The Times of Israel on Tuesday as the premier’s plane was en route to Washington. – Times of Israel

Four months into a ceasefire with Hamas, the Israeli military is drawing up plans for a renewed offensive in the Gaza Strip to disarm the terror group by force, The Times of Israel has learned. – Times of Israel

President Isaac Herzog used his visit to Sydney this week to draw a direct line between the Bondi Beach terror attack, Hamas’ October 7 attack, and a sharp global rise in antisemitism now reshaping Jewish life from Australia to the United States. – ⁠Ynet

The IDF said Wednesday that it killed Hamas terrorist Ahmad Hasan on Monday, describing him as responsible for the deaths of seven soldiers and the wounding of others in multiple incidents in the Gaza Strip during the war. – ⁠Ynet

The Israeli Missile Defense Organization (IMDO) within the Directorate of Defense Research & Development (DDR&D) in the Israel Ministry of Defense (IMOD), together with the US Missile Defense Agency (MDA) and Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, have successfully completed a series of tests of the David’s Sling advanced air & missile defense system, designed to intercept various threats including rockets, missiles, cruise missiles, aircraft, and UAVs. – Arutz Sheva

Abu Obaydah, the new spokesperson for the Al-Qassam Brigades – the military wing of the Hamas terrorist organization – has launched a sharp attack on independent armed militias operating in Gaza and opposing Hamas rule. – Arutz Sheva

Sagiv Steinberg writes: Thirty years after Oslo, after bloody intifadas, wars, and the utter destruction of October 7, it is no longer possible to continue ignoring these texts, symbols, and actions. The Palestinian national movement, in all its shades, has one clear goal: one Palestine, a fully Palestinian Jerusalem, and the return of millions of refugees – a move that has one meaning: the end of the State of Israel’s existence. The difference between Fatah and Hamas is not in the goal, but in the path. One seeks to destroy the house all at once; the other prefers to dismantle it brick by brick, through international institutions, diplomacy, and symbols. In both cases, the planned final result is identical. – Jerusalem Post 

Russia and Ukraine

For over a year, Russian forces have slogged through battlefields in Ukraine without seizing a single urban stronghold. Now, these attritional advances are on the verge of paying off. Russia appears poised to complete the capture of three strategic areas in the coming weeks or months, according to military experts and independent battlefield monitors. – New York Times

Russia on Tuesday tightened its step-by-step throttling of the ubiquitous communication app Telegram, escalating a crackdown on what remains of the free Russian internet amid President Vladimir V. Putin’s war against Ukraine. – New York Times

Russia’s waves of strikes with missiles and exploding drones on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure are not just inducing discomfort. They are also aimed at crippling the Ukrainian economy and demoralizing the population, including by sowing internal divisions. They also amplify pressure on Ukraine during peace talks brokered by the Trump administration. – New York Times

A Ukrainian athlete cannot wear a helmet featuring images of his countrymen who were killed in the war with Russia, Olympic officials said on Tuesday, ruling it a violation of the Games’ prohibition on political speech. – New York Times

A Russian drone strike killed four people, including three small children and their father, in a town west of Ukraine’s second-largest city of Kharkiv, Ukrainian officials said on Wednesday. – ⁠Reuters

U.S. ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker said on Tuesday that he expects more announcements of pledges for the Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) initiative to supply Ukraine with U.S. weapons when alliance defence ministers meet in Brussels on Thursday. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy assembled his top military officers on Tuesday to discuss shortcomings in air defence and other aspects of protecting civilians from attack nearly four years into Russia’s war in Ukraine. – Reuters

An overnight drone attack sparked a fire on the territory of an industrial facility in Russia’s southern region of Volgograd, the regional governor said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Russia‘s FSB security service has detained a third suspect over an attempt last week to kill a senior military intelligence officer, Vladimir Alexeyev, Russian news agency Interfax quoted the FSB as saying on Tuesday. – Reuters

Russia cannot launch an attack on NATO this year or next but is planning to increase its forces significantly along the alliance’s eastern flank, depending on the outcome of the war in Ukraine, a senior European intelligence official said. – Associated Press

Top European Union diplomat Kaja Kallas said Tuesday that she is drafting a list of concessions that she believes Russia must make to secure any long-term peace in Ukraine as U.S.-run talks to end four years of war show little sign of progress. – Associated Press

Ukraine has begun planning presidential elections alongside a referendum on any peace deal with Russia, after the Trump administration pressed Kyiv to hold both votes by May 15 or risk losing proposed US security guarantees. – ⁠Financial Times  

Kyiv officials warned that Ukrainians might be coerced into registering Starlink terminals for the Kremlin’s forces after a recent block on Russia’s access to the service. – Business Insider

Olga Prokopieva writes: The resilience of young Russians offers hope. By investing in culture, education, and mobility, we can help them resist indoctrination and envision a democratic future rather than cede the future to authoritarianism. The goal should not be to politicize Russia’s young people, but to preserve their openness and potential for the moment when conditions allow political change. The international community must recognize Russia’s youth as a strategic priority, not a lost generation, but the foundation of a future democratic Russia. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Turkey

President Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday named as Turkey’s new justice minister Akin Gurlek, the Istanbul chief prosecutor behind the sweeping crackdown on the main opposition party, drawing fierce criticism from critics. – Reuters

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned that Turkey could be pulled into a nuclear arms race if Iran acquires nuclear weapons, arguing that such a development would reshape regional security and create pressure on neighboring countries, in an interview with CNN Turk on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan visited Saudi Arabia and Egypt earlier this month, marking fresh steps in the normalization of relations with key regional powers and opening the door to new defense deals. – Defense News

Korean Peninsula

South Korea’s Bithumb said on Wednesday that serious flaws had left the crypto exchange’s internal system susceptible to potential sabotage and failed to prevent an erroneous transfer of more than $40 billion in assets last week. – Reuters

OpenAI, Samsung SDS and SK Telecom are preparing to start construction of data centres in South Korea in March, Science Minister Bae Kyung-hoon said at a parliamentary hearing on Wednesday in Seoul. – Reuters

South Korean startup Wrtn expects to generate more than $100 million of annualised revenue this year after launching its AI entertainment service in South Korea and Japan, with plans to expand to the U.S. by June and eyeing an IPO as early as 2028, its founder said. – Reuters

South Korea plans to boost medical student numbers by 16% in 2027 and further in subsequent years, the health ministry said on Tuesday, a step criticised by a doctors’ association after similar plans triggered nationwide protests in 2024. – Reuters

South Asia

But now, as Bangladesh prepares to vote in the first national elections since that Gen Z revolution, Shipon—who has struggled to find work since finishing graduate school last year—is losing hope that new leaders can solve the problems that are plaguing so many in his generation. – Wall Street Journal

More than 120 million people in Bangladesh are expected to vote on Thursday to pick a new leader. It’s a pivotal moment: the first national election since a student revolution in the summer of 2024 toppled the previous prime minister, Sheikh Hasina. Bangladeshis will also vote on a referendum that includes many of the political reforms demanded during the protests. – New York Times

The United States is concerned about China’s expanding presence in South Asia and is planning to offer Bangladesh’s next government U.S. and allied defence systems as alternatives to Chinese hardware, Washington’s ambassador to Dhaka told Reuters. – Reuters

Faced with what the authorities say is an immediate shortage of at least 2.3 million workers, a shortfall exacerbated by the strain of Russia’s war in Ukraine and one that Russia’s traditional source of foreign labour – Central Asians – is not able to fill, Moscow is turning to a new supplier: India. – Reuters

India’s government said social media companies would have to take down unlawful content within three hours of being notified about it, tightening on Tuesday an earlier 36-hour timeline in what could be a compliance challenge for Meta, YouTube and X. – Reuters

Bangladesh will hold a national referendum on Thursday together with its first parliamentary election since violent protests ousted former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024. The referendum will give people a chance to vote on reforms to state institutions. – ⁠Reuters

Michael Rubin writes: Rubio should make clear that there can be no legitimacy to elections when an unelected official bans the largest party, nor do politicians ban mainstream parties unless they feel they will lose in a competitive election. Much is at stake. With a population approaching 200 million, a terrorism-supporting Bangladesh, hostile to the United States, India, and religious freedom, would be a game-changer. The Islamist takeover of Bangladesh will be as consequential to South Asia as Iran’s revolution was to the Middle East. – American Enterprise Institute

Europe

European Union leaders gather in a Belgian castle on Thursday to thrash out how they can compete economically with a global rival like China and a less reliable ally like the U.S. as the rules-based world order frays. – Reuters

France’s National Rally has yet to win over the business elite, who fret over its shifting economic positions and are wary of engaging with a far-right party many still regard as toxic, according to over a dozen sources. – ⁠Reuters

British armed forces will play a vital part in NATO’s Arctic Sentry mission, Defence Minister John Healey is to say on a visit to Norway on Wednesday, while also pledging to double the number of UK troops to the country to 2,000 over three years. – Reuters

EU lawmakers approved changes to the European Union asylum system on Tuesday, paving the way for fast-track asylum rejections and the possible transfer of asylum seekers to countries with which they have little or no connection. – Reuters

Management at a Russian-owned oil refinery in Germany have privately warned Berlin that U.S. sanctions are hurting its business and threatening fuel supply for the country’s capital and the region, according to correspondence seen by Reuters. – Reuters

Anti-government protestors clashed with police in Albania’s capital Tirana on Tuesday evening as thousands gathered to demand the resignation of the deputy prime minister over alleged corruption. – Reuters

Norway’s parliamentary oversight committee unanimously agreed on Tuesday to appoint a rare external inquiry into foreign ministry links to Jeffrey Epstein, part of a deepening scandal over friendships with the late U.S. sex offender. – Reuters

The secretary-general of the Commonwealth, a 56-nation group headed by Britain’s King Charles, said on Wednesday she expected member nations to make progress towards beginning negotiations on reparations for the transatlantic slave trade. – Reuters

Prime Minister Keir Starmer pledged on Tuesday to never walk away from his job to change Britain, brushing off a challenge to his authority by the Labour leader in Scotland and other figures in the party who have called on him to quit. – Reuters

Russia has no intention of launching a military attack on any NATO state this year or next, but is racing to rebuild its forces as Europe steps up its rearmament, Estonia’s foreign intelligence service said in its annual report on Tuesday. – Reuters

Europe’s fledgling green hydrogen industry is urging the EU to introduce “made in Europe” requirements for public spending on the sector, warning that without support to scale up quickly, domestic producers risk being overtaken by Chinese rivals. – Reuters

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will meet with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, a German government official said on Tuesday. – Reuters

France’s presidential election may still be more than 14 months away, but the campaign is already well under way. Traditionally, French campaigns don’t get going until after the August holidays of the year before, but the stakes for the 2027 contest are so high — given the potential victory of a far-right president skeptical of the European Union and NATO — that the race is now on. – Politico

German startup Hypersonica claimed a “significant” step toward delivering Europe’s first sovereign hypersonic strike capability by 2029, after the company’s first hypersonic test flight in Norway pushed its missile prototype to more than Mach 6 and a range of more than 300 kilometers. – Defense News

The Americas

The Trump administration on Tuesday let U.S. companies supply Venezuela with equipment and technology needed to boost the country’s oil production. – ⁠Wall Street Journal

When President Trump declared a “national emergency” last month, accusing Cuba of harboring Russian spies and “welcoming” enemies like Iran and Hamas, it came with a warning: Countries that sell or provide oil to the Caribbean nation could be subject to high tariffs. The threat seemed to be directed at Mexico, one of the few countries still delivering oil to Cuba. – New York Times

About half of the high-powered .50-caliber cartridges that the Mexican authorities have seized from cartels since 2012 were traced to an ammunition factory outside Kansas City, Mo., that is owned by the United States government, Mexico’s defense secretary said on Tuesday. – New York Times

The Guatemalan government said on Tuesday that it would begin phasing out its longstanding use of Cuban doctors, a nearly 30-year program that is a vital source of income for the Cuban government but one that has come under heavy strain from the Trump administration. – New York Times

Venezuelan opposition politician Juan Pablo Guanipa is under house arrest in the city of Maracaibo, his son Ramon Guanipa said on Tuesday, shortly after the close ally of Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Corina Machado was freed from jail and recaptured. – ⁠Reuters

The U.S. Treasury Department on Tuesday issued a general license to facilitate the exploration and production of oil and gas in Venezuela, a long-awaited step that could help increase output in the country. – ⁠Reuters

Argentine President Javier Milei’s libertarian government has put sweeping labor reforms at the center of its push to attract investment and revive growth, setting up a clash with the country’s powerful unions. – ⁠Reuters

Brazil is scrutinizing a trade agreement announced last week between the United States and Argentina due to concerns it violates the rules of South American trade bloc Mercosur, three sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters. – Reuters

Less than three years after President Joe Biden pardoned a close ally of Nicolás Maduro, the Justice Department is once again targeting the businessman, The Associated Press has learned, an investigation that could bolster the U.S. prosecution of the deposed Venezuelan leader. – Associated Press

United States

A team working for President Donald Trump’s spy chief, Tulsi Gabbard, last spring led an investigation into Puerto Rico’s voting machines, said Gabbard’s office and three sources familiar with the previously unreported events. – Reuters

The United States on Tuesday barred Palau Senate President Hokkons Baules and his family from entering the U.S., accusing him of corruption linked to China, as Washington pushes back on Beijing’s effort to boost its influence in the Pacific. – Reuters

A California man has been sentenced to four years in prison for acting as an illegal agent for the Chinese government while working as a campaign adviser for a local politician. – Associated Press

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued a sudden Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) restricting flights over the southern border city of El Paso, Texas, for 10 days from Wednesday due to “special security reasons”. – Newsweek

James Skinner writes: Farmers from the plains to the prairie are not asking for protectionism. They are asking for a policy environment that recognizes the strategic importance of the work they do. Protecting them from unnecessary exposure to foreign adversaries is a commonsense step to ensure they can operate on a level playing field. Leaders at the federal, state and local level must do better on their behalf. – American Foreign Policy Council

Defense

U.S. spy chief Tulsi Gabbard told Reuters on Tuesday that she has wound down a task force she launched last year with the declared goal of rooting out politicization from intelligence agencies, but which critics accused of being a tool for partisan attacks by the Trump administration. – Reuters

Nearly 200 more miles of the U.S. border with Mexico have been placed under Air Force supervision, enabling wider use of military force and heftier charges against people crossing illegally into the country. But experts wonder why the step is being taken as crossings plummet and heightened charges are thrown out by judges. – Defense One

As the Army’s Transformation-in-Contact brigades test and help develop new technology, they’re also shaping how soldiers will be trained to use it. At Fort Stewart, Georgia., soldiers in the 3rd Infantry Division are working on a pair of courses to certify soldiers to operate small unmanned aerial systems, part of servicewide effort to create doctrine around using drones throughout every formation. – Defense One

Buoyed by billions in investments into robotic systems, the Navy is considering how it will manage the swarms of unmanned surface, subsurface and aerial drones throughout the fleet. – USNI News

While Navy and Marine Corps officials touted progress in overcoming a fatal V-22 Osprey gearbox issue that has limited operations since 2023, lawmakers lamented falling readiness rates and increasing mishaps Tuesday during a hearing on Capitol Hill. – USNI News

Deliveries of Lockheed Martin-built C-130J aircraft to the US Air Force have been halted due to a problem with integrating a new communications upgrade, according to the service. – Breaking Defense

The Navy is seeking to shake up its traditional carrier strike group model, with new plans for tailored forces that aim to provide the service greater flexibility, according to the Navy’s top officer. – Breaking Defense