Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Hamas said it would postpone this week’s release of Israeli hostages following a long-running dispute over access to tents and mobile homes needed for shelter, the most serious challenge yet to a fragile cease-fire under which another 17 Israeli hostages or their bodies are to be returned to Israel over the coming weeks. – Wall Street Journal

Israeli police raided two popular bookstores in East Jerusalem, carted away dozens of books and detained two employees in a move they said was aimed at stopping incitement but which raised concerns about threats to Palestinian freedom of expression and Israel’s values. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump said Palestinians wouldn’t have the right to return to Gaza under his new plan to rebuild the territory, adding that they would get “much better housing” instead in neighboring countries. – Wall Street Journal

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has issued a decree overturning a system of payments to the families of Palestinians imprisoned or killed by Israeli forces that has been a longstanding source of friction with the United States. – Reuters

Mediators fear a breakdown of the Gaza ceasefire agreement, two Egyptian security sources said on Monday, after Hamas said Israel was not serious about executing the deal and announced it would stop releasing hostages until further notice. – Reuters

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said on Monday the Hamas announcement that it will stop freeing hostages was a violation of the Gaza ceasefire deal and that he had ordered the military to be at the highest level of readiness in Gaza. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump must remember that the only way to bring home Israeli prisoners is to respect the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri told Reuters on Tuesday. – Reuters

Muhammad Ismail Darwish, head of Hamas’s Political (Shura) Council, claimed that “In just one day or within 48 hours, half a million Palestinians returned to their homeland,” and that “even with nothing, they sat on the ground and, like olive trees, they remained steadfast in their land.” – Jerusalem Post

Hundreds have gathered to protest and light bonfires outside Tel Aviv’s Kirya military headquarters following Hamas’s announcement that it would postpone the release of hostages on February 15, Israeli media reported Monday night. – Jerusalem Post

There were no new proactive IDF attacks planned against Hamas as of Monday evening despite the Hamas decision a few hours earlier to freeze hostage transfers. – Jerusalem Post

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused the opposition of wanting to surrender to Hamas in the early stages of the war during a speech given to the Knesset plenum on Monday. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: This is a painful weight for an ordinary citizen with no personal connection. Imagine what it is like for them. To those rushing to the keyboards to call these people leftists and traitors, count to five and hold it in. These are your siblings. Where is your love, your respect, your decency that should direct you to stay silent and hold space for their pain? One of the things that makes Israel great is its human quality. We must pull on those strings and find our way back to those roots because it seems we have forgotten what this project is all about. – Jerusalem Post

Amit Segal writes: But Gaza isn’t Belgium. Gaza’s “sovereignty” was exploited by Hamas to perpetrate a massacre against Israelis, and Mr. Trump is right to try to abrogate its freedom to do so again. As a child, I vacationed at a hotel on one of Gaza’s breathtaking beaches, which are unmatched in beauty throughout the Middle East. There’s no reason why, in the name of Wilsonian idealism, those beaches should host Iranian-funded terrorist squads rather than cocktails at sunset. – Wall Street Journal

Joel Zivot writes: Until Hamas surrenders, it may truthfully claim it has not lost this war against Israel. Not losing, however, is not the same as winning. In 280 and 279 BCE, King Pyrrhus of Epirus won battles against the Romans but lost so many men that he was forced to retreat. This calamitous war calculation is now known as a Pyrrhic victory — a victory so costly it is essentially a defeat. It may be the only victory Hamas can get. – The Hill

Zina Rakhamilova writes: By engaging in apologetics for Hamas, Western activists and media figures are complicit in prolonging the hostages’ suffering. They are giving the terrorist organization exactly what it wants – global legitimacy and the cover to continue its campaign of terror. […] The hostages were not “prisoners.” They were victims of a terrorist regime that thrives on human suffering. It’s time to hold accountable those who whitewash the suffering of innocent civilians in the name of their hatred for the Jewish state. – Jerusalem Post

Russia & Ukraine

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday his special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, is going to Ukraine soon. – Reuters

Russia warned on Monday that the outlook for extending the last remaining pillar of nuclear arms control between Moscow and Washington, the world’s two biggest nuclear powers, did not look promising and that the situation appeared to be deadlocked. – Reuters

The Trump administration’s freeze of foreign funding has begun impacting an international effort to hold Russia responsible for alleged war crimes in Ukraine, according to eight sources and a Ukrainian document seen by Reuters, halting dozens of jobs and tens of millions of dollars in aid. – Reuters

Russia’s point man for relations with the United States said on Monday that all of President Vladimir Putin’s conditions must be met in full before the war in Ukraine can end, suggesting Moscow is playing hardball with U.S. President Donald Trump. – Reuters

U.S. sanctions on Russia should not affect Moscow’s oil trade with India, Pavel Sorokin, Russia’s first deputy energy minister, said on Tuesday, adding that it was too early to assess the impact of the latest restrictions. – Reuters

Ukraine imposed emergency power restrictions on Tuesday after overnight and morning attacks by Russia on gas infrastructure, said Ukraine Energy Minister German Galushchenko. – Reuters

Editorial: No doubt Trump would love a quick win in Ukraine, similar to the Israel-Hamas cease-fire that came together just before his inauguration. But a weak deal that leaves Putin poised to resume his war would risk another cycle of conflict and instability, fracture the West, and reshape the geopolitical balance. Even Trump couldn’t spin that as a victory. – Bloomberg

Jim Geraghty writes: At the beginning of the month, Mobbs tweeted: “One of the new great falsehoods being pushed by bad actors is there is nothing worth fighting and dying for. Peace at all costs isn’t peace, it’s surrender disguised as virtue. True peace requires strength, sacrifice, and the willingness to defend what is right — even when it costs.” This does not sound like a family interested in giving Putin a great deal. – Washington Post

Elina Beketova and Julia Beck write: SavEd has been forced to pause two projects due to the suspension of USAID funding, including the creation of Transitional Learning Centers where schools were destroyed by Russian forces. The charity is continuing its other work and plans to restore support for tutors in frontline communities. Each day without education adds to the cost of recovery, Novosad said. If the war drags on for another year, there will need to be real solutions for the children and teachers in the hardest-hit regions, such as Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia, she said. – Centre for European Policy Analysis

Lebanon

As the war between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah intensified last September, Abed Al Kadiri sat glued to the television in the art studio where he was working in Kuwait. – New York Times

Lebanon’s Hezbollah militant group has launched attacks on Syrian security forces and is sponsoring cross-border smuggling gangs, the new Syrian authorities said on Monday, according to state media. – Agence France Presse

The US conveyed to Israel on Monday that the IDF must withdraw from southern Lebanon by February 18, with no further extensions to the ceasefire being granted. – Jerusalem Post

Korean Peninsula

South Korea’s state-run think tank has cut its growth forecast for the country this year, citing President Donald Trump’s trade policy as a downside risk to exports growth. – Wall Street Journal

South Korea’s spy agency has accused Chinese AI app DeepSeek of “excessively” collecting personal data and using all input data to train itself, and questioned the app’s responses to questions relating to issues of national pride. – Reuters

A teacher at a South Korean elementary school has admitted to stabbing a seven-year-old girl who was found in cardiac arrest and later died in hospital, a police official said on Tuesday. – Reuters

North Korea’s defence ministry said on Tuesday the United States is again posing a grave security threat by sending a nuclear submarine to a South Korean port and its military forces are ready to take any action necessary, KCNA news agency reported. – Reuters

South Korean prosecutors indicted on Monday 63 people for their role in storming a court building last month to protest the detention of impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol, with some facing charges carrying up to a seven-year jail term, an official said. – Reuters

South Asia

Bangladesh is facing a fresh bout of violence as members of a student protest movement that toppled the authoritarian government of Sheikh Hasina in August clashed again with her supporters, highlighting the fragility of a country struggling to rebuild itself. – New York Times

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is preparing additional tariff cuts ahead of a meeting this week with U.S. President Donald Trump that could boost American exports to India and avoid a potential trade war, government officials said. – Reuters

France is in advanced talks with India to buy a multi-barrel rocket launcher system, a top Indian official said on Monday, a potential deal that would be the first time India’s second-largest arms supplier buys weapons from New Delhi. – Reuters

Bangladesh is working towards holding general elections by December, the party of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia said after some of its officials held a meeting with Muhammad Yunus, the chief adviser to the interim government. – Reuters

At least five people were killed when a suicide bomber with explosives strapped to his body detonated outside a bank in northeastern Afghanistan on Tuesday, police said. – Reuters

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi will discuss nuclear energy, including small and modular reactors, during his meeting with US President Donald Trump this week. – Bloomberg

Katherine B. Hadda writes: The growth of U.S.-India ties has been so successful that it is hard to recall that just several years ago, relatively siloed issues could spill over and disrupt our broader cooperation. Working proactively to address immigration and visa issues will help both sides stay on track in working through trade and other potential areas of difference in the months ahead. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Richard M. Rossow writes: The competing manufacturing priorities of the United States and India may very well push commercial policy talks back into harmful territory. But there are real pathways to co-prosperity in ways that will help both nations improve manufacturing competitiveness and our respective balances of trade. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Europe

Europe gets a turn in President Trump’s firing line this week. Senior administration officials are heading across the Atlantic to tackle points of tension including tech regulation, trade, military spending and Russia’s war in Ukraine. – Wall Street Journal

That was the pitch that President Emmanuel Macron of France made on Monday as Paris hosted an A.I. summit, where government leaders, top tech executives and academic experts have gathered to discuss the hopes surrounding A.I., as well as the fears of economic and societal disruption that the rapidly evolving technology has fueled. – New York Times

The Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) said on Monday it would suspend humanitarian work in nearly 20 countries worldwide after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a freeze on U.S. foreign aid worldwide when he took office on January 20. – Reuters

Kosovo looked set for a period of political uncertainty on Monday as the major political parties ruled out coalition building after an election in which the ruling party fell short of an outright majority. – Reuters

Romania’s outgoing centrist president Klaus Iohannis resigned on Monday to pre-empt an impeachment bid by opposition parties in parliament, with voters highly polarized and the far-right graining ground ahead of a repeat presidential election in May. – Reuters

Hundreds of students protested in the Bosnian capital Sarajevo on Monday over the failure of authorities to take responsibility for the deaths of 27 people in devastating floods in early October or to promptly help survivors. – Reuters

Finland’s foreign ministry said on Monday it had summoned the Russian ambassador to Helsinki to request an explanation regarding a suspected violation of Finnish airspace that occurred on February 7. – Reuters

Europe is prepared to act in response to possible restrictions to trade, German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said on Monday, after holding discussions with industry lobbies and the EU’s top trade representative about the threat of tariffs from the U.S. – Reuters

Striking university students in Serbia blocked a bridge in Belgrade as well as roads throughout the Balkan country on Sunday to mark 100 days since the collapse of a concrete canopy at a train station which killed 15 people. – Associated Press

French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou survived a fourth no-confidence vote, removing another hurdle to implementing a delayed 2025 budget. – Bloomberg

Portugal is speeding up processing times for golden visa applications after long delays began to tarnish the image of one of Europe’s most popular residency-by-investment programs. – Bloomberg

Lee Hockstader writes: Germans’ resentments have been fed by pandemic restrictions, a bungled effort to force people to buy expensive home heat pumps, and a European rule banning sales of gasoline-powered cars starting in 2035. […] That’s part of the toxic brew that awaits the next government. Merz, an untested politician, would be grappling with Germany’s biggest test in generations. His country’s future, and Europe’s, hangs in the balance. – Washington Post

The Americas

At least 53 people were killed on Monday when a bus crossing a bridge in Guatemala City collided with several other vehicles and then plunged into a ravine, according to government officials. – New York Times

Two flights carrying Venezuelan migrants from the United States back to Venezuela will arrive late Monday in the capital, Caracas, the country’s communication’s ministry said. – New York Times

Shortly after 3 a.m., a battering ram burst open the door to a 14th-floor apartment and three men dressed in the black tactical gear of the Chilean police rushed in. Brandishing guns, they grabbed Ronald Ojeda in front of his wife and 6-year-old son and dragged him away in his underwear. – New York Times

Brazil and Mexico, two top shippers of steel to the U.S., will wait to see if U.S. President Donald Trump announces tariffs on steel and aluminum imports before reacting, officials from both nations said on Monday. – Reuters

The head of Canada’s official opposition party, on track to win an election in the coming months, said on Monday he would slash foreign aid to help build a base in the Arctic and boost regional security. – Reuters

A crowd of 500 descended from dusty trucks on a recent morning and shuffled through a tiny gap in a border gate separating Haiti from the Dominican Republic. – Associated Press

Liam Denning writes: Trump’s threats and insults should be message enough that Canada must overcome prior infighting and secure new energy export routes as insurance. The benefits of comparative advantage that have shaped the US-Canada energy relationship rested on an assumption of mutual rationality and respect, which can no longer be taken for granted. That opinion poll suggests the opportunity for unified action is there, precisely because Trump has provoked it. – Bloomberg

Stan Veuger and Mikkel Davies write: A loss of confidence in the fiscal sustainability of the United States might also undermine the effectiveness of monetary policy as well as the country’s ability to respond to crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis. It would undermine the United States’ habit of recovering stronger and faster from downturns than the rest of the West. Slower recoveries would further weaken Washington’s ability to sustain whatever remains of the famed rules-based order and confound its already complicated politics. – Foreign Policy

Cybersecurity

Microsoft Corp. is under investigation from the French antitrust authority amid concerns the US tech giant is degrading the quality of results when smaller rivals pay to use Bing technology in their own search-engine products. – Bloomberg

L3Harris on Monday unveiled a software platform, Amorphous, for controlling large swarms of uncrewed systems across multiple domains, allowing aerial drones, ships and other platforms to operate together seamlessly. – Defense News

In a sweeping international law enforcement operation, Thai authorities arrested four Europeans in Phuket, accusing them of orchestrating ransomware attacks affecting Swiss companies worldwide. The suspects are allegedly tied to the 8Base ransomware-as-a-service (RaaS) gang, which extorted $16 million worth of Bitcoin from over 1,000 individuals. – Cyberscoop

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul on Monday announced a statewide ban on DeepSeek, the Chinese-owned artificial intelligence application, from being downloaded on state-owned government devices and networks. – Statescoop