Yemeni Factions Hope to Exploit the Current Chaos in Houthi-Controlled Yemen

Amid daily U.S. airstrikes, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels appear increasingly vulnerable to their Yemeni rivals. Those rivals are reportedly planning a ground offensive whose goals include recapturing the key port city of Hodeida on the Red Sea coast or even retaking the capital, Sanaa, after a decade under Houthi control.

The United States is “open to supporting a ground operation led by local forces,” according to unnamed U.S. officials who spoke to The Wall Street Journal. In March, Washington re-designated the Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization.

The Journal reported that the United Arab Emirates raised the subject of a ground offensive with U.S. officials, prompting a firm denial from Abu Dhabi. Bloomberg reported that the head of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, discussed a ground offensive with the Saudi and Yemeni chiefs of staff, although a Saudi official disputed this on background. Kurilla also discussed efforts to counter the Houthis in a meeting with the Yemeni chief of staff in early March.

U.S. Operation Weakens the Houthis

U.S. CENTCOM forces began a large-scale operation against the Houthis on March 15 with the goal of degrading their military capabilities and restoring freedom of navigation in the Red Sea. The Houthis launched hundreds of attacks on commercial shipping, military vessels, and Israeli targets following Hamas’s October 7 atrocities. The group paused its attacks during the ceasefire in Gaza earlier this year, but Washington chose to hit back preemptively.

The United States has conducted over 300 airstrikes targeting Houthi infrastructure, weapons, and leaders. The operation has also “taken out key Houthi leadership,” according to National Security Advisor Mike Waltz. Local sources, including Houthi media, and Yemen analysts have identified over 100 deaths of Houthi members, including senior military and intelligence officials.

Only a Ground Operation Can Oust the Houthis

While airstrikes can degrade Houthi infrastructure and munitions stockpiles, potentially deterring attacks on foreign targets, the group has controlled most of northern Yemen for a decade and built a de facto government in Sanaa. The Houthis’ home governorate of Saada on the northern border with Saudi Arabia is a mountainous territory where the group has built fortified and buried infrastructure. “The construction efforts illustrate that even before the military confrontation with the US and allied forces, the Houthis were preparing for, and hardening themselves in case of, future conflict,” reported the International Institute for Strategic Studies in 2024.

Iran has also supplied its terrorist partner with an extensive arsenal. The Houthis are the only member of Tehran’s “Axis of Resistance” — and the only non-state group anywhere — to possess anti-ship ballistic missiles and medium-range ballistic missiles, in addition to other advanced missiles and unmanned systems.

Anti-Houthi Opposition Faces Challenges Requiring International Support

There are sharp political disagreements between Yemen’s anti-Houthi factions, yet they have cooperated in the past. During the early phases of the Yemeni civil war, these groups fought together when supported by the Saudi-led international coalition, with successes such as retaking Aden in 2015.

Experts placed the number of Houthi fighters as high as 350,000 in 2024. The CIA assesses Yemen’s internationally recognized government (IRG) to have a force of up to 300,000 with between 150-200,000 Saudi- or Emirati- trained fighters. However, these forces face a host of challenges, including delayed payments to soldiers, other financial troubles as a result of the devastated economy, and a lack of cohesion.

For Yemeni forces to be successful, they require substantial backing from Gulf partners. If the Gulf states step up, American support can increase the odds of success. As the U.S.-led campaign against the Islamic State illustrated, if there is a competent and dedicated partner on the ground, U.S. air power and intelligence can provide a decisive advantage. The United States also has a role to play in blocking the flow of foreign weapons to the Houthis and pressuring Oman to close its territory to Houthi leaders, financiers, and smugglers.

Bridget Toomey is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where she focuses on Iranian proxies, specifically Iraqi militias and the Houthis. For more analysis from Bridget and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Bridget on X @BridgetKToomey. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.