‘Stark Strategic Realities’: Hegseth Tells NATO U.S. Must Prioritize Pacific Deterrence

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth told European allies Wednesday that the United States could no longer be “primarily focused on the security of Europe” because of threats emanating from the Indo-Pacific. Hegseth’s comments during the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) came the same day that President Donald Trump held phone calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, calling for a negotiated end to the war.

Hegseth also placed the onus on European allies to take the lead on future aid to Ukraine, while taking U.S. support for Ukrainian NATO membership off the table. However, perhaps aware that such comments could undercut Trump’s negotiating position vis-a-vis Russia, Hegseth partially walked back those statements on Thursday, stating that “everything is on the table.” While the United States unquestionably faces the most potent threats in the Indo-Pacific, abandoning Ukraine and neglecting efforts to bolster European deterrence against additional Russian aggression could result in a cascade of negative consequences in both Europe and the Indo-Pacific.

Hegseth Says Europe Must Provide ‘Overwhelming Share’ of Aid to Ukraine

At the UDCG, Hegseth called on European allies to take the lead on future military aid to Ukraine and expand their defense industrial bases. Hegseth also made clear that any security guarantees to Ukraine would be made without the commitment of U.S. troops and that any European peacekeepers should not be “covered under Article 5,” NATO’s collective defense clause.

Hegseth further told his European counterparts that America “does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement.” Shortly after Hegseth’s comments at the UDGC, France, Germany, Poland, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy issued a joint statement declaring they were “ready to enhance our support for Ukraine.” Likewise, they reaffirmed their commitment to strong security guarantees for Ukraine and insisted that Europe and Kyiv be at the negotiating table.

Hegseth Calls on Europe to ‘Own Responsibility for Its Own Security’

Hegseth also delivered a blunt message on NATO burden sharing, saying that “stark strategic realities” faced by the United States will force it to prioritize deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. As a result, Hegseth said European NATO members would have to “take ownership of conventional security on the continent” as part of a “division of labor” to defend Europe and the Pacific.

Reinforcing President Trump’s previous calls for increased NATO spending, Hegseth called on NATO members to spend at least five percent of their gross domestic product (GDP) on defense, pointing to Poland as an example for other allies to emulate. In 2024, 23 out of 32 NATO members met the alliance’s goal of spending at least two percent of GDP on defense, up from three members in 2014 and six members in 2021.

Even if European allies met the five percent goal, they would need considerable time to replace the United States as the key enabler in NATO, meaning any American resource shift to the Indo-Pacific must be sequenced responsibly. Meanwhile, even as it calls for Europe to spend more, the United States continues to spend near historic lows as a percentage of GDP despite facing its most serious national security threats since 1945. 

U.S. Security Commitment in Europe Deters Aggression

The U.S. commitment to NATO, underpinned by its forward military posture in Europe, is a formidable deterrent against aggression and protects American interests. Likewise, at a sustainable cost, U.S. support for Ukraine sends an important deterrent message to Beijing as it contemplates aggression against Taiwan. Failure to continue relatively small and sustainable investments in Ukraine increases the likelihood that Americans will have to pay a much steeper price in a preventable future conflict.

Referring to the need of the United States to continue “prioritizing deterring war with China in the Pacific,” Secretary Hegseth told his European counterparts, “deterrence cannot fail, for all of our sakes.” He is correct. That’s why the United States should support Ukraine and ensure NATO deterrence is sufficient, while also working with allies to increase deterrence in the Pacific.

Cameron McMillan is a research analyst at FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP), where Ryan Brobst is a senior research analyst and Bradley Bowman is the senior director. For more analysis from the authors and CMPP, please subscribe HERE. Follow Brad on Twitter @Brad_L_Bowman. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_CMPP. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.