‘Keep America Close and Russia at Bay’: Europe Debates Defense Spending

Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz told Politico on Wednesday that the goal of his country’s increased military spending is to “keep America close and Russia at bay” as Warsaw aims to spend 5 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) on defense, far outpacing most NATO members. The Polish defense minister’s comments come as European leaders navigate the return of Donald Trump, who has pushed the alliance to spend more on defense but made comments that undermine perceptions of America’s commitment to NATO.

Despite calls from EU leaders to increase defense spending, Europe remains split over how to meet its security needs in the face of an aggressive Russia and a new administration focused on challenges elsewhere. Meanwhile, even as it calls for Europe to spend more, the United States continues to spend near historic lows on defense as a percentage of GDP.

EU Leaders Pledge Increased Defense Spending but Avoid Specific Commitments

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called for “extraordinary measures” to increase defense spending on Tuesday. Von der Leyen’s comments came just one day after EU leaders again pledged to increase defense spending during a summit in Brussels, where Antonio Costa, the president of the European Council of EU leaders, recognized that, despite recent progress by member states, “we need to do more. We need to do it better, stronger, faster.”

Despite these public commitments, questions about how to pay for increased defense spending remain. In 2024, 23 out of 32 NATO members met the goal of spending at least 2 percent of GDP on defense, up from three members in 2014 and six members in 2021.

Disparate Responses to Trump

Whereas some Eastern European countries, like Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia, have committed to meet Trump’s calls to spend 5 percent of GDP on defense, the EU’s economic heavyweights, France and Germany, which were projected to spend slightly over 2 percent of their GDP in 2024, both pushed back, saying that their countries have met NATO spending guidelines and are already on track to continue increasing their defense budgets. Some NATO members are reportedly willing to meet Trump about halfway by raising spending goals to 3 percent.

Countries like Poland, which has become a leader in European defense by spending large sums on U.S. and South Korean weapons, are seeking to stay in Trump’s good graces by spending more on defense and procuring more weapons from America’s defense industry. By contrast, France has pushed for increased defense investments within the European Union despite this approach’s mixed track record, including its record related to artillery production and military mobility.

U.S. Needs Allies and Should Lead by Example on Defense Spending

As Trump begins his second term, the United States will continue to need allies to defend its interests and counter a growing axis of aggressors consisting of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. While the United States should encourage its European allies to spend more on defense, it should always do so without undermining its Article 5 North Atlantic Treaty commitment to defend the alliance. If the United States and its allies fail to deter Russia in Europe, that avoidable failure will be far more costly than increased near-term investments in deterrence and will lead to cascading consequences elsewhere, including in the Indo-Pacific. By working with European allies, such as Poland, that are willing to exceed NATO goals and procure American weapons, the United States can simultaneously strengthen its own defense industrial base and deterrence on NATO’s eastern flank.

The United States should also lead by example. Washington spends about 3 percent of its GDP on the Defense Department, well below Trump’s 5 percent standard, near post-World War II lows, and dangerously dissonant with the threats the United States confronts. In its July 2024 report, the bipartisan Commission on the National Defense Strategy assessed, “The threats the United States faces are the most serious and most challenging the nation has encountered since 1945 and include the potential for near-term major war.” This gap between actual and necessary European and American defense spending is an increasingly dangerous national security liability.

Cameron McMillan is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ (FDD’s ) Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP), where Bradley Bowman is the senior director. For more analysis from the authors and CMPP, please subscribe HERE. Follow Brad on X @Brad_L_Bowman. Follow FDD on X @FDD and @FDD_CMPP. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.