Seeking Leverage, China Reportedly Offers Washington Assistance in Settling the Ukraine War

Despite fueling Moscow’s war machine, China has expressed its interest in playing peacemaker in Ukraine. The Wall Street Journal reported on February 13 that Chinese authorities had approached the Trump administration over the past several weeks with a proposal to end the ongoing war in Ukraine. While the Chinese Embassy in Washington denied knowledge of the exchange, a spokesperson expressed Beijing’s hope that the “parties will work for de-escalation and strive for political settlement.”

While the Journal reported that U.S. and European leaders rejected the offer, which included a U.S.-Russia summit and Chinese involvement in post-conflict rebuilding, the proposal signals Beijing’s interest in using its substantial influence over Russia to garner leverage in future negotiations with Washington.

Beijing Offers to Broker Peace Summit and Facilitate Peacekeeping Efforts

In addition to brokering a bilateral U.S.-Russia summit, China’s offer allegedly entailed a promise to oversee peacekeeping and stabilization efforts during the post-conflict phase. This arrangement would preclude Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky or any other European leaders from participating in the settlement, a format that President Donald Trump cautiously appeared to endorse this week in opening negotiations with Russia.

Beijing’s exclusion of Kyiv from its plan for negotiations contrasts with the proposal China and Brazil circulated in February 2023, which called for a freeze along the conflict’s current lines, an international peace conference supported by both Russia and Ukraine, and the removal of Western sanctions on Russia. Despite Beijing’s efforts to coalesce international support for the agreement, Ukraine, the United States, and Russia all rejected the proposal.

China is a Key Enabler of Russia’s War Effort

China has been a major purchaser of Russian energy and other goods throughout the war, allowing Moscow to prop up its heavily sanctioned economy. Chinese consumer goods, particularly automobiles, have flooded the Russian market, filling gaps left by Russia’s heavily taxed manufacturing base and a withdrawal by Western competitors.

Chinese suppliers have also directly contributed to Russia’s defense industrial base through a combination of smuggling and technology transfers. Using Hong Kong as a transshipment point, China has been the primary supplier of dual-use goods to Russian manufacturers, particularly semiconductors, microelectronics, and machine tools used to produce ballistic missiles. This assistance also extends to lethal aid, with Chinese and Russian firms reportedly cooperating on the production of a new generation of loitering munitions for use on the war’s frontlines.

Beijing Seeks to Gain Leverage With Washington While Maintaining Ties to Moscow

Rather than a genuine effort to broker peace, China’s outreach to Washington appears primarily driven by Xi Jinping’s desire to curry favor with the Trump administration while preserving close ties with Putin. Fully aware of his country’s dependence on exports, Xi’s willingness to position China as a key player in ending the Ukraine War — a major Trump administration priority — is intended to both bolster Beijing’s global image as a responsible power and possibly avoid further punitive trade actions by Washington. Simultaneously, Xi’s pointed refusal to end Chinese aid to Russia as a condition of a peace settlement signals his interest in maintaining influence over Moscow as a key partner to counter the United States. In response to China’s offer, the Trump administration should instead place greater pressure on Russian oil revenues by lowering the price cap on its energy exports. It should also seek congressional approval for a “Ukraine leverage” military aid package to secure a more beneficial settlement for both the United States and Ukraine.

Jack Burnham is a research analyst in the China Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). For more analysis from Jack and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Jack on X @JackBurnham802. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.