January 14, 2025 | Policy Brief
Trump Needs Timely Congressional Action to Support His Ukraine Agenda
January 14, 2025 | Policy Brief
Trump Needs Timely Congressional Action to Support His Ukraine Agenda
The United States unveiled a new security assistance package for Ukraine on January 9, expected to be the last under President Joe Biden. President-elect Donald Trump stands to inherit enough aid authority to sustain Ukraine’s battlefield position for some months. But if he is to broker a good peace agreement, Trump will need timely congressional action to show Moscow that U.S. support will endure.
New Assistance Package
Washington announced the aid package as officials from some 50 nations gathered for the 25th meeting of the U.S.-led Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG), held at Ramstein Air Base in Germany. Worth an estimated $500 million, this was the Biden administration’s 74th package for Ukraine under Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), used to donate materiel from existing U.S. stocks to meet immediate needs. It includes, inter alia, air defense munitions to help counter Russian missile and drone strikes.
European nations and Canada pledged additional support as well. According to U.S. government data, America’s allies and partners have accounted for roughly half the $126 billion in security assistance committed to Ukraine since Russia launched its full-scale invasion. If one includes financial and humanitarian assistance, Europe has pledged double the amount of aid committed by Washington, according to the Kiel Institute.
During the UDCG meeting, Washington and other countries also endorsed roadmaps to guide longer-term international assistance in eight different areas of military capability. This effort can help stimulate Western defense production, facilitate Ukrainian interoperability with Western militaries, and prepare Ukrainian forces to deter future Russian aggression.
Remaining Aid Authority
Trump will inherit roughly $3.8 billion worth of PDA. For comparison, Washington has committed $7.85 billion in PDA for Kyiv since April 2024, according to figures from Defense Department press releases. Earlier this week, a senior Pentagon official said the United States had so far delivered “between 80 and 90 percent” of the materiel promised under PDA.
Since April, Washington also pledged around $14.3 billion in aid under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), used to procure new materiel for Kyiv. Aid under USAI tends to take a while to arrive since it usually must be produced from scratch. The Biden administration committed the last of its USAI funding on December 30 as part of an effort to surge aid for Ukraine ahead of the transition.
Continued Support Critical to Trump’s Peace Agenda
As Trump has acknowledged, continued assistance for Kyiv is essential to his objective of achieving peace. “I want to reach an agreement, and the only way you’re going to reach an agreement is not to abandon” Ukraine, he recently told Time magazine.
Europe cannot meet Kyiv’s military needs alone. Without U.S. support, Ukraine’s increasingly understrength and exhausted forces would probably be unable to hold their lines and defend their cities and critical infrastructure. Russia, in turn, would likely be less willing to compromise, seeking instead to press its battlefield advantage in pursuit of maximalist peace terms.
The remaining PDA, along with deliveries from previous USAI packages, should be sufficient to hold Ukraine over for a good chunk of next year. But the Kremlin needs to know that it cannot simply wait out U.S. support.
The incoming administration, therefore, should waste no time in asking Congress to pass a “Ukraine leverage” package containing additional PDA, USAI funding, and money to replace PDA donations. The new administration should also work as quickly as possible to conclude contracts for the billions of dollars in USAI funding that have been committed but not yet obligated.
In addition, Trump should direct his secretary of defense to continue leading the UDCG and should support bipartisan congressional efforts to codify the June 2024 U.S.-Ukraine bilateral security agreement. Finally, the new administration should pair its military assistance for Ukraine with greater economic pressure on Russia, especially its oil revenue.
John Hardie is the deputy director of the Russia Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he also contributes to FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power. For more analysis from John and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow John on X @JohnH105. Follow FDD on X @FDD and @FDD_CMPP. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focused on national security and foreign policy.