Expect Turkey To Be the Decisive Foreign Player in Post-Assad Syria

The ousting of former President Bashar al-Assad’s regime and the rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other rebel groups have created an opening for Turkey to assert itself as the primary external actor in Syria, replacing Iran and Russia. Recent videos showing Turkey’s intelligence chief, Ibrahim Kalin, touring Damascus’s Hamidiyeh Market and its historic Umayyad Mosque bring to mind President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s 2014 vow that Turkey’s allies in Syria would “pray in the courtyards of the Umayyad Mosque” once Assad was toppled.

Turkey’s strategic objectives in Syria are multifaceted. Key among them is facilitating the return of Syrian refugees and weakening the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). With Assad gone and an HTS-led provisional government in power, Turkey is on track to achieve these goals.

Turkey’s Complex History With HTS Before Its Takeover of Damascus

Before HTS ousted Assad, the organization’s relationship with Turkey was defined by a combination of pragmatic cooperation and deep-seated mistrust. Initially, Turkey designated HTS as a terrorist organization due to its extremist ideology and ties to al-Qaeda. However, HTS’s strategic recalibrations, particularly its actions against ISIS strongholds in northwestern Syria, paved the way for cooperation with Ankara. HTS allowed Turkish patrols to operate within territories it controlled and the establishment of Turkish observation posts in northern Syria.

HTS has even positioned itself as a gatekeeper for Ankara, curbing drug trafficking into Turkey, preventing ISIS infiltration, and apprehending individuals wanted by Turkish authorities. HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa, long known by his nom de guerre Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, had also allegedly supported Turkish military operations east of the Euphrates, according to a report by the Turkey-based Syria TV broadcaster.

Turkey’s Leverage Over HTS: A Key Factor in Its Strategy Against the SDF

Since the fall of the Assad regime, Turkish officials have consistently reiterated their commitment to preserving Syria’s territorial integrity, which is code for staunch opposition to any form of autonomous governance in northeastern Syria under the SDF. While HTS has publicly framed the Kurds as an integral part of Syrian society and has avoided direct confrontation with the SDF since toppling Assad, HTS’s gains have empowered rebel groups hostile to the Kurds, such as the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA). As the Assad regime disintegrated, the SNA began launching attacks on SDF territory, capturing strategic locations such as Manbij and Tel Rifaat.

Turkish National Defense Minister Yasar Guler reiterated that Turkey’s “primary mission in Syria is the dismantling” of what he called the “PKK/YPG terrorist organization.” Backed by Washington, the Kurdish YPG, or People’s Protection Units, are the main military component of the SDF and have close ties to the Kurdish PKK in Turkey, which has been designated as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the United States, and several other countries. Through its partnership with HTS, Turkey is likely to seek an end to the SDF’s control of a substantial region in northeast Syria. Despite being a member of NATO, Turkey has proven unwilling to cooperate with Washington on this matter.

U.S. Withdrawal Would Leave SDF Exposed

In September, the Biden administration announced an agreement that would end the U.S. military mission in Iraq next year and likely result in the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria in 2026. This would be a serious mistake that would expose the SDF to Turkish aggression while disrupting successful American efforts to prevent the resurgence of ISIS. America’s small but effective presence in Syria — just 900 troops — also kept Assad off-balance and limited Iranian influence. A withdrawal would be self-defeating unless the new authorities in Damascus demonstrate firm opposition to terrorism and commitment to equitable treatment for Syrian Kurds, including protection from Ankara’s depredations.

Ahmad Sharawi is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he focuses on Middle East affairs, specifically the Levant, Iraq, and Iranian intervention in Arab affairs, as well as U.S. foreign policy toward the region. For more analysis from Ahmad and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow him on X @AhmadA_Sharawi. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.