After the Ceasefire, Will Iran Abandon its ‘Axis of Resistance’?

The Decline of Iran’s Proxies: How Tehran’s Regional Power Crumbled

On June 23, Iran launched a ballistic missile attack targeting the US Al-Udeid base in Qatar. The United States was well prepared for the attack. The State Department had urged Americans to shelter in place, and US Central Command coordinated closely with the Qataris to intercept the threats.

Iran carried out the attack in response to the US airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites on June 22.

Axis of Resistance in the Region

Iran’s attack appears to have been limited and intended to secure the ceasefire that President Donald Trump announced several hours after the missiles were intercepted. With no one killed in Qatar, it was easier to enable de-escalation.

Trump urged Israel to end its attacks on Iran, which began on June 13, and Doha urged Iran to stop its attacks on Israel. The ceasefire deal commenced on June 24. With the shaky agreement in place, the region can breathe a sigh of relief.

Now, the deal may pave the way for changes in the Middle East. A new trajectory could emerge, enabling Iran to scale back its regional ambitions and reduce conflicts in various regions.

Iran’s ambitions have led to conflict in many areas of the Middle East. Iran has portrayed itself as leading an “axis of resistance” to the US and Israel in the region. It has funded and backed numerous armed proxy groups.

These groups include Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as the Houthis in Yemen. In addition, Iran has backed Palestinian groups such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. It has also backed militias in Iraq. Before the fall of the Assad regime on December 8, 2024, Iran also backed militias in Syria that helped prop up the Assad regime.

If one looked at a map of the Middle East over the last decade, it was clear that Iran’s influence and power were growing.

For instance, the Houthis not only grew in power in 2014 and 2015, but they also began to be able to target shipping in the Red Sea and built a ballistic missile and drone program that could target large parts of Saudi Arabia. In Iraq, the Popular Mobilization Forces of Shi’ite militias helped defeat ISIS.

However, they then stayed in power in parts of Iraq and began targeting US forces in 2019, including the Kurdistan Regional Government in northern Iraq. Hezbollah also grew beyond Lebanon’s borders to play a key role in the Syrian civil war.

Iran’s power grew to such an extent in the Middle East that it controlled a swath of the region. By 2018, a member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps could drive from Tehran to Baghdad. They could then drive west to the border with Syria and cross at Albukamal, where Iranian-backed Kataib Hezbollah had a headquarters. From there, they could drive to Lebanon and link up with Hezbollah. If they preferred the maritime route, they could leave from Iran by boat and reach Yemen.

This route was a testament to Iranian influence in the region, an arc of unprecedented regional hegemonic power. Iran wasn’t the only power in the region, but the weakness of countries such as Iraq had enabled Iran to spread its wings in various directions.

Most Arab countries, such as Jordan or Egypt, were busy with internal affairs. Iran was projecting power.

Projecting Power

This power projection led to increasing conflicts. Iran targeted Saudi Arabia with cruise missiles and drones in 2019. Its backing of Hamas also likely led the group to gamble with the massive attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.

Hamas was likely convinced, via meetings with Hezbollah and other elements of the Iranian proxy network, that a multi-front war would defeat Israel. Israel wasn’t defeated. Instead, Israel clawed its way back, weakened Hamas, and forced Hezbollah into a ceasefire by November 2024. By December 8, 2024, the Assad regime had also fallen. Iran rapidly saw the region slip from beneath its feet.

The weakness of the Iranian proxies enabled the Israeli attack on June 13. Iran was exposed. Iran invested a lot in the proxies and did not invest as much in its air defenses and systems to deal with Israel’s 5th Generation aircraft, such as the F-35I Adir.

Iran likely had no way to defend against these aircraft, but Tehran didn’t calculate this challenge. Instead, it continued in the spring of 2025 as if things hadn’t changed. This arrogance and hubris in Tehran led it to take a drubbing in a war that began on June 13. It also encouraged Trump to carry out the strikes on June 22.

Now Iran has a chance to reverse course. Qatar, a major non-NATO ally, has played a key role in facilitating the ceasefire deal. Iran could now choose a new course. The nuclear weapons program has become a sunk cost.

Fordow, Isfahan, Natanz, Arak, and other nuclear program sites are damaged. A huge investment is lost. Iran has also lost many ballistic missiles. Iran’s drones, which it launched in the hundreds between June 13 and June 24, did not penetrate Israel’s air defenses.

Iran must re-think its defense doctrine and strategy in the region. Most countries did not have sympathy for Iran because of its past behavior in the region. Even friends of Tehran, such as Moscow and Beijing, did not step up.

Tehran can use the ceasefire to climb down from its past drive for regional hegemony.

Seth Frantzman is the author of The October 7 War: Israel’s Battle for Security in Gaza (2024) and an adjunct fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies.