How Iran Plans to Consolidate Its Victory

Excerpt

Wars are judged by how they end, not by successes along the way. President Trump has done more to cripple Iran’s nuclear apparatus than his predecessors, but that may not matter. The memorandum of understanding sets the stage for an eventual nuclear revival, since what’s been blown up can be rebuilt as long as enough oil flows, the regime’s illicit dual-use import network remains operational, and U.S. and Israeli intelligence fails against Iranian vigilance.

This war’s apparent denouement—fear of damage to energy infrastructure in the Arab Gulf states, declining global oil reserves and, most consequentially, Washington’s refusal to take and hold the Strait of Hormuz—will militate against the rebirth of Mr. Trump’s belligerency later. An American victory now would require Mr. Trump to make a military commitment, with its U.S. and Arab losses, and blockade Iran for as long as needed. American politics, if not the president’s temperament, work against such boldness.

Mr. Gerecht is a resident scholar at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. Mr. Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.