April 9, 2026 | The Wall Street Journal
How Trump Miscalculated in Iran
He followed his Venezuela model, not accounting for the ideological character of the regime in Tehran.
April 9, 2026 | The Wall Street Journal
How Trump Miscalculated in Iran
He followed his Venezuela model, not accounting for the ideological character of the regime in Tehran.
Excerpt
Donald Trump threatened to end Iranian civilization, then sued for peace. If the two-week cease-fire is extended, which seems likely, the extra time won’t resolve the conflict’s underlying causes.
The Islamic Republic is at war with its own history, to borrow from the former hostage and diplomat John Limbert. So much that is Persian, as well as the Western ideas that have poured into Iran for more than a century, eats away at the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic. Mr. Trump’s threats aside, he doesn’t see where this regime gains strength among those Iranian men who still believe in the revolution: amid the corruption, cynicism and breakdown of governance they have caused, these believers still seek a defining struggle of good vs. evil.
Mr. Gerecht is a resident scholar at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Mr. Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.